Jordan Eberle - Unrealistic Expectations
by Derek Zona on Sep 9, 2010 6:30 AM MDT
in Analysis
Email
Print
That's Lowetide talking about Jordan Eberle's reputation outpacing the player. He's right, of course, because Eberle's World Junior heroics have kept him in the national consciousness for the last two years. His performances have also increased his stature in the eyes of folks already putting too much stock into prospects, an Edmonton pastime since 1992.
The lack of news in August gave us a chance to explore unrealistic expectations for the incoming class of Edmonton rookies, and specifically the long-term expectations of Oiler fans on Taylor Hall and Hall's rookie year projections. The look at Gagner's comparables rounds out my round robin of optimistic, pessimistic and realistic articles on young Oilers. Let it be said that I'm more than just the resident pessimist.
Lowetide received criticism at his site, at Oilersnation, and on various and sundry message boards for under-selling Jordan Eberle. His critics listed his shot, his brain, his want, and his history of being clutch as reasons for Eberle deserving all of these accolades and more.
One idea that's been put forth in the upwelling of support for Jordan Eberle is that he scored so many points for the Regina Pats in the WHL last season. Eberle scored 106 in 57 games, to be exact. Eberle's most vocal fans would have us believe that this is a special and significant accomplishment, a number that points toward something significant. Let's investigate.
Eberle posted his number as a 19-year-old (actually as a hockey-aged 19-year-old), making it a bit less significant than if he had done the same as an 18-year-old. Below is a list of every 100-point season posted by 19-year-olds in the WHL since 2000.
| Player | Year | Team | GP | G | A | P |
| Justin Mapletoft | 2000 | Red Deer Rebels | 70 | 43 | 77 | 120 |
| Layne Ulmer | 2000 | Swift Current Broncos | 68 | 63 | 56 | 119 |
| Kyle Wanvig | 2000 | Red Deer Rebels | 69 | 55 | 46 | 101 |
| Jordan Krestanovich | 2000 | Calgary Hitmen | 70 | 40 | 60 | 100 |
| Eric Johansson | 2001 | Tri-City Americans | 69 | 44 | 59 | 103 |
| Erik Christensen | 2002 | Kamloops Blazers | 67 | 54 | 54 | 108 |
| Jesse Schultz | 2002 | Kelowna Rockets | 72 | 53 | 51 | 104 |
| Jeremy Williams | 2003 | Swift Current Broncos | 68 | 52 | 49 | 101 |
| Eric Fehr | 2004 | Brandon Wheat Kings | 71 | 59 | 52 | 111 |
| Mark Santorelli | 2007 | Chilliwack Bruins | 72 | 27 | 74 | 101 |
| Casey Pierro-Zabotel | 2008 | Vancouver Giants | 72 | 36 | 79 | 115 |
| Brett Sonne | 2008 | Calgary Hitmen | 62 | 48 | 52 | 100 |
| Brandon Kozun | 2009 | Calgary Hitmen | 65 | 32 | 75 | 107 |
| Jordan Eberle | 2009 | Regina Pats | 57 | 50 | 56 | 106 |
There are fourteen such seasons in total, and of the players that hit the century mark, only Erik Christensen and Eric Fehr have become regular NHL players, with Fehr being the only offensive threat at the NHL level. Based on this accomplishment alone, there is no follow-on history of success.
I can already hear or read the next argument: "But look at his points per game! The World Junior Championship and his trip to the AHL robbed him of a 133 point season!" And while Eberle did average 1.86 points per game, that doesn't seem to predict future success either. Going all the way back to 1990, there have been ten "full-season" 19-year-olds to average 1.66 points per game - 90% of Eberle's total - or better. Those players are listed below:
| Player | Year | Team | P/G |
| Hnat Domenichelli | 1995 | Kamloops Blazers | 2.39 |
| Jason Miller | 1990 | Medicine Hat Tigers | 2.06 |
| Marty Murray | 1994 | Brandon Wheat Kings | 1.97 |
| Maxim Bets | 1992 | Spokane Chiefs | 1.96 |
| Scott Gomez | 1998 | Tri-City Americans | 1.86 |
| Jeff Nelson | 1991 | Prince Albert Raiders | 1.77 |
| Domenic Pittis | 1993 | Lethbridge Hurricanes | 1.76 |
| Valeri Bure | 1993 | Spokane Chiefs | 1.73 |
| Kimbi Daniels | 1990 | Swift Current Broncos | 1.71 |
| Brad Moran | 1998 | Calgary Hitmen | 1.66 |
Of the players that dominated the WHL as 19-year-olds, only Marty Murray, Scott Gomez, and Valeri Bure became NHL regulars, and only Gomez became a regular offensive threat. Whether Bure was a regular threat is debatable.
None of this is to diminish what Eberle has accomplished in his young career, and I'm not saying that Eberle is going to be a bust. But an argument based on his points scored as a 19-year-old in the WHL is one on shaky ground.
42 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Now don’t you go throwing water on the campfire! He’s done it everywhere else, so of course he will tear up the NHL!
This is a good reminder to all the fans out there who are coming into this season thinking that 3 rookies, 2 1/2 backup goalies and a blue tied together with binder twine are the makings of a high-scoring exciting team.
In fact, this would be a good post (along with some choice others) to re-post next April when the Oilers are in the basement again and the masses are wondering what happened. Perhaps it can be a rallying point to storm the castle and de-throne the foolish king/GM once and for all.
If Eberle eventually becomes a regular 20-25 goal scorer and can play both ends of the ice (and maybe even the PK), I’d be absolutely ecstatic.
I think the kid has a great sense of where to go, but I think people put too much stock into the goals he scored. If you watch the replays of the goals he scored against the Americans, they were rather poor shots that found their way in. On one of them the goaie was down and Eberle’s shot went under him instead of in the top half of the net where it was empty. He misfired and got a bit lucky. You wonder how much of this reputation he’d have if he missed these shots and instead buried a few of the posts he hit in Regina.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I wouldn’t put too much weight into whether it barely went in or not. A lot of goals end up like that (Jokinen GTG with 1 min left in Game 7, CAR@NJD, Morrow 4OT goal against SJS, Kane OTG in Cup-clincher, etc).
One thing to note about Fehr—he only became a regular impact NHLer in 2008-2009, five years after he was drafted. Eberle by that standard has 3 more years, I guess (ducks head).
by red army line on Sep 9, 2010 9:02 AM MDT up reply actions
The point was, it’s a game of inches and sometimes you get lucky at the right time. And sometimes legends (rightly or wrongly) are made of that. He misfired and came out on top. Other times he’s made a near-perfect shot and hit a post the wrong way and the puck stayed out.
He’s built up because they happened in the right games. No one cares if you scored the tying goal with 4 seconds left for the last place team in the WHL. They do care if you do it in the gold medal game of the WJC.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I really think at that point it gets too complex. We’re trying to guess the thought process of the shooter and goalie over that half a second Eberle decides to shoot. He got it in (and again…and again…and again, if memory serves), end of story. “Good to be lucky, lucky to be good.” I would agree that it’s a little too few “clutch” plays to be considered “clutch,” but then again, being “clutch” is all about small sample or being Patrick Roy in playoff OT.
by red army line on Sep 9, 2010 12:05 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m not talking about his thought process on the shot (there’s no way anyone is going to convince me he was trying to shoot the one low).
My point in general was that he gets a lot of credit for the goals he scored and yes he was in the right place at the right time (a very good sign), but it’s important to put it in a general context.
Is he less of an actual player if the puck doesn’t take the right bounce against the Soviets, and instead he has a shot go in off his backside in the WHL? Of course not, but he’s a lot less famous and expectations are a little different.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
If Eberle eventually becomes a regular 20-25 goal scorer and can play both ends of the ice (and maybe even the PK), I’d be absolutely ecstatic.
As would I, but I think he’s more likely to score 10-15 goals and 10-15 assists his rookie year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t think you guys are giving enough weight to the clutch factor. I mean, Renney could probably just sit Eberle on the bench for a majority of each game and just wait for a critical juncture in the third period to play him. Down by one? Eberle to tie. Up by one? Eberle will put it to bed. Overtime? Eberle for the win.
by Kent Wilson on Sep 9, 2010 10:13 AM MDT reply actions 2 recs
Aaaaaand that gets a big, fat rec.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
OT, Hawks signed Potulny yesterday for $500k
Can someone offer insight as to why Edmonton let him walk? From the limited stuff I’ve read, he sounds like a player with some upside potential who fared well in the AHL and in the NHL last year.
Lord Stanley's new address: Sweet Home Chicago!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Sep 9, 2010 10:27 AM MDT reply actions
Because we’re dumb.
I dunno, it’s not the end of the world that we lost him, but if we keep giving up on prospects with potential to be good role-players, we’re never gonna replace the vets of ‘06 that left. The most frustrating part of losing him and Ryan Stone is that it’s part of a larger pattern of inattention to the bottom half of the roster.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Hehe, thanks
That was my answer to everything Hawks related pre-lockout.
Was just wondering if I was being delusional. It doesn’t look like he has the size or skill set to be a regualr 4th line center, so it would appear he might get some time at wing on the Hawks 3rd line. We also need PK help, so Potulny and Pisani should help out there.
Lord Stanley's new address: Sweet Home Chicago!
by ChicagoNativeSon on Sep 9, 2010 11:38 AM MDT up reply actions
potulny
He’s soft and slow but has good hands and a decent head for the game. Wouldn’t expect him to crack your top 12 but could be decent filler when injuries happen.
by rent a goalie on Sep 9, 2010 12:35 PM MDT up reply actions
I can see Eberle putting up to about 35-40 points if given decent PP minutes.
Also career wise, i think he will have a petr sykora like career with a more 2 way game
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
I don’t see him getting decent power play minutes. He’s going to be in behind Gagner, Penner, Hemsky and Hall.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Bah, we just need to draw a lot of penalties. Then we’ll be able to run THREE power-play units!
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I would just like to say that neither I nor the rest of the Copper & Blue team have anything to do with this slander. Derek is doing this on his own!
by Benjamin Massey on Sep 9, 2010 10:35 AM MDT reply actions
Let it be said that I’m more than just the resident pessimist.
Wait, I’m confused. Which the hell one of you is the resident pessimist?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Derek is the resident Eberle pessimist, which I consider equivalent to being pessimistic about bacon or world peace.
by Benjamin Massey on Sep 9, 2010 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions
I’m the resident optimist (or at least I was until Lisa came along). Meaning, I’m only pessimistic about half the time.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 9, 2010 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m all about Eberle this year, I ordered my Eberle jersey 2 weeks ago. This is the year you guys!
writer for The Copper & Blue and newsgirl of HFboards, well when I'm not working for the man
by Lisa McRitchie on Sep 10, 2010 8:16 AM MDT up reply actions
Can’t believe you took down that awesome dissenting comment.
Pension Plan Puppets: A Toronto Maple Leafs blog and a group therapy session.
Like reading thoughts confined to 140 characters? I'm on Twitter too.
That was an e-mail, not a comment.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I had a theory that there was something to do with size, but of the players with SBN pages (i.e. that still have a hope in hell at the NHL), none of them were under 6’ except Eberle and Kozun, and only Krestanovich was absurdly light for his size (6’ and 170). So much for that idea. That being said, five of those seasons have come in the last four seasons, so there’s still lots of time, especially for the two last year.
In unrelated news, Kyle Wanvig is an Edmonton Ice alumnus. I thought Bruce was enjoy that.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
It might still be something to do with size.
Large-ish 19-year-olds in the WHL have the chance to bull through guys and muscle their way to points against 17-year-olds and smaller players that they won’t get in the NHL. A small guy like Eberle has to do with skill.
by Benjamin Massey on Sep 9, 2010 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, I saw Wanvig play a couple times with the Ice. Looked like he might have a career at one point.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 9, 2010 12:00 PM MDT up reply actions
i’m known on HFboards as one of the biggest eberle “pessimists” there is, but even i have a rather large issue with this article…. you can’t just throw out WJC and AHL results, especially the AHL results
the WJC results aren’t as imporant, but they are still significant… sure, lots of prospects have put up good numbers at the WJC and then not gone on to be anything significant…. but eberle was a top-3 scorer for 2 years in a row… he’s canada’s all-time leading goalscorer… the clutch goals are greatly over-emphasized though (as are all clutch goals at every level of hockey)… so while the WJCs by themselves don’t mean much, when you take into account his dominance of the tournament ALONG WITH his WHL results, it starts to mean something
the thing that is of much more signifigance, is eberle’s results in the AHL… i know it’s a small sample size, but since both small samples are so close to each other, its hard to believe its simple coincidence…. as an 18 year old, eberle scored 1 PPG in the AHL and as a 19 year old he scored 1.27 PPG…. these are exceptional results for a 18/19 year old, hell, they are exceptional results for a 20 year old in the AHL…. the famous AHL-NHL rule for 20 year olds is “if they score at near a 1 PPG rate in the AHL, they have a good chance of being offensive successful in their NHL careers”…. eberle surpassed these numbers as a 18/19 year old
to only look at his WHL totals and ignore his WJC, and more imporantly, his AHL numbers is pure folly…. you can’t pick and choose the area to examine when looking at a prospect, you have to look at the entire body of work… beyond that, you should actually give precendence to what the prospect does at the highest level of competition (the AHL in this case)…. you’ve put 100% of the emphasis on the league which matter the least
I agree that the WJC and AHL numbers are indicative of something, when coupled with the WHL stuff, but there’s not enough of a sample there to use them in the conversation. He’s played, what, 12 or 13 WJC games? Less than 20 AHL games? That’s not a hell of a lot to go on.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
20 AHL games on one of the worst teams in the AHL as an underager…. 20 games isn’t even that small of a sample size really…. many players get called up to the show after putting up lesser numbers for the same amount of games
but whether its a small sample size or not, you’re completely ignoring it in your evaluation…. that simply doesn’t make sense
Derek twists numbers to suit his preconceived anti-Eberle agenda.
by Benjamin Massey on Sep 9, 2010 11:26 AM MDT up reply actions
you can’t pick and choose the area to examine when looking at a prospect, you have to look at the entire body of work
I’m not doing that. His proponents are setting forth his WHL totals as evidence of something great. Right after the jump you’ll notice that I wrote:
One idea that’s been put forth in the upwelling of support for Jordan Eberle is that he scored so many points for the Regina Pats in the WHL last season. Eberle scored 106 in 57 games, to be exact. Eberle’s most vocal fans would have us believe that this is a special and significant accomplishment, a number that points towards something significant.
I’m countering that. I’m not even evaluating the player. If you read through to the bottom of the article, you’ll see:
None of this is to diminish what Eberle has accomplished in his young career, and I’m not saying that Eberle is going to be a bust. But an argument based on his points scored as a 19-year-old in the WHL is one on shaky ground.
I’m not sure how much more clear I can be.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
fair enough, but when you’re title is “Jordan Eberle – Unrealistic Expectations” you are doing more than refuting one specific reason for those expectations (which i agree are largely unrealistic)
but you are correct, you do specify at the end that you are only talking about the WHL argument…. if you wanted to really look at expectations for eberle, you’d be wise to do a follow up that takes into account his total accomplishments up to this point in time (WHL, WJC, AHL and WC), although others have already done this
I did this myself back at the end of February. Since then we can add another impressive small sample size in Eberle’s second AHL stint. NHLE of 46 points, and another positive step in the ladder of development. (I don’t think there is such a thing as an NHLE for the world championships).
The thing that impresses me about Eberle is that his samples may be small, but they’re always good. He’s never had under a point a game in any tournament (four now) or either of his AHL stints. The guy just goes in and scores. So I for one am very hopeful that he will do so in the NHL as well, we just have to keep in mind the “E” in “NHLE” and not expect a point-a-game guy in the bigs.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 9, 2010 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions
You guys forgot to normalize for the heightened offence that WHL had back in the 90’s. And team offence in general (how was the supporting cast?).
Then we will get a true unbiased picture of how impressive the season actually was.
I’m a bit confused as to the “takeaway” point here. Is it just that we shouldn’t really concern ourselves with how much offense a prospect puts up at 19 y/o in the CHL? Because if this is about Eberle, I don’t really “get it”. It seems obvious to me (and you state this is the article) that this is just one reason among many that people are excited about Eberle. Even if we just add draft pedigree as a criteria, the complexion changes significantly. Of all the players you’ve listed, the only ones chosen in the first round are Scott Gomez, Eric Fehr, Jason Miller, and Eberle. That suddenly doesn’t look so bad. That Jordan Eberle played in the WHL wasn’t up to him. He hammered it. To me, that’s better than if he’d shown little or no improvement.
Well, the answer to this depends again on what the point of the article is. It doesn’t matter at all if the only point is that “success at 19 in the WHL doesn’t mean success in the NHL.” But it matters a lot if you want to add “… so don’t get too excited about Jordan Eberle.” And if that’s not outright stated, it’s certainly pretty strongly implied (look at the title for crying out loud). Jordan Eberle and Justin Mapletoft may have had similar statistical seasons in the WHL at 19, but they’re not similar prospects. Draft pedigree matters because players who are drafted earlier in the draft are those who have been judged to have the best skills for NHL success (but you already know that, so I find your question confusing). I don’t think many folks are excited just because of his 19-year-old season. It’s one positive among many. All of those positives taken in concert are what have people excited.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 8:31 PM MDT up reply actions
Draft pedigree matters because players who are drafted earlier in the draft are those who have been judged to have the best skills for NHL success (but you already know that, so I find your question confusing).
The WHL production is what’s in question here. I clearly explained that in the article and in this comment.
As for Pedigree, I’d say it works against him a bit. There were 17 forwards drafted in the first round out of the WHL between 2000 and 2005. Only four of them were still in the W at age 19.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The WHL production is what’s in question here.
I guess I just don’t hear anyone making the argument that Eberle’s WHL success at 19 = NHL success at 20. If the point is made broadly, then sure, but when it’s applied to Eberle in particular, you’re refuting an argument that no one is really making (i.e. no one focuses so narrowly on just this past season).
There were 17 forwards drafted in the first round out of the WHL between 2000 and 2005. Only four of them were still in the W at age 19.
How are you measuring age? Colby Armstrong only played one year of WHL hockey after being drafted, but it was his “19 year-old” season. The same is true of Ryan Getzlaf, and Eric Fehr, and others. I’ll assume those guys aren’t among the four who were left behind. The problem is, those guys all spent significant time in the AHL in their next season, something that wasn’t an option for Eberle last year. If it was, I’m sure he’d also have been playing AHL hockey, and possibly have gotten a call-up. It’s a pretty bogus comparison because of how the rules about where they were allowed to play impacted each player. Eberle can’t control the fact that he was ineligible for the AHL. All he can do is play well where the Oilers send him, and that’s exactly what he did.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 9:54 PM MDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Northwest Standings
Oilers Schedule
Next 5 Games
Detroit
|
Sat 02/04 | 8:00 PM MST |
|
@
Toronto
|
Mon 02/06 | 5:00 PM MST |
|
@
Detroit
|
Wed 02/08 | 5:30 PM MST |
|
@
Ottawa
|
Sat 02/11 | 12:00 PM MST |
|
Toronto
|
Wed 02/15 | 8:00 PM MST |
Last 5 Games
|
Chicago
|
Thu 02/02 | W 8 - 4 |
|
Colorado
|
Tue 01/31 | W 3 - 2 |
|
@
Vancouver
|
Tue 01/24 | SO - L 2 - 3 |
|
San Jose
|
Mon 01/23 | SO - W 2 - 1 |
|
Calgary
|
Sat 01/21 | L 2 - 6 |
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Fight Video: Ilya Kovalchuk KOs Flyers’ Brayden Schenn with nasty right hook
- Penguins’ Brooks Orpik launches Daniel Paille with massive hit (Video)
- Penguins, Bruins face their challenges in Eastern Conference showdown
- Olli Jokinen’s slump-buster is a Big Mac meal from McDonalds (Video)
- Friday’s Three Stars: Brassard wins it for Blue Jackets in overtime; Halak blanks Kings
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
