What If the Oilers Aren't Terrible?
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 3, 2010 11:45 AM MDT
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PrintWe sure do spend a lot of time on this site managing expectations (and/or making fun of optimists depending on your perspective). Derek's done it with Taylor Hall, Ben's done it with Linus Omark, even Ales Hemsky has done it when he spoke to Jim Matheson about the new rookies (most worrying quote from the article: Hemsky saying "I think they are going the right way" instead of "I think we are going the right way"). Virtually everyone has done it with the expectations for the team as a whole going into next season. There aren't a lot of people who think this team is going to be very good. Thus, I decided it might be time to manage expectations from the other side. Last place is no guarantee people!
Some fans are already looking ahead to the 2011 Entry Draft, hopeful that the Oilers will march to the podium and select Adam Larsson with the first overall pick. But, honestly, I'm not sure that's altogether likely. Sure, the Oilers are in the bottom third of the league, and maybe even the worst club on talent, but that's far from guaranteeing last place. Let's take a moment to remember that wonderful team from the 2007-08 season, shall we. At the end of January, the Oilers had 51 points, only six more than the last-place Kings, and a -21 goal differential. good for 26th overall. They'd also shut down Sheldon Souray and Shawn Horcoff for the season. Here's the lineup they iced on February 1st (players with less than 100 NHL games in bold):
Penner-Reasoner-Hemsky
Nilsson-Stoll-Gagner
Moreau-Cogliano-Pisani
Sanderson-Brodziak-Stortini
Gilbert-Pikanen
Greene-Grebeshkov
Staios-Smid
Roloson
Now, it didn't stay that way for the rest of the season. There were more injuries, and of course Glencross arrived in a trade, but the gist is that this team doesn't look very good, and I'm not convinced they're better than the team the Oilers will ice this winter. They've got two rookies playing defense, at least one in the top four, and another five sprinkled amongst a forward group that was Marty Reasonser centering the top line. But the team played in a tremendous amount of luck and went18-10-5 the rest of the way, with a +5 goal differential, helping Kevin Lowe to look like less of an idiot for giving Dustin Penner an offer sheet that summer. It's not something you'd bet on happening, but it's the kind of thing bad teams can muster over reasonably long stretches every now and again.
Gabe Desjardins ran a poll recently asking how many points the Oilers might earn this season. 86% of respondents thought that they'd get at least 70, and 66% bet on 75 points or more. And where would 75 points put them in the standings? Last season it would have left them in 29th. In 2007-08 they would have finished 28th. It was good for 26th in 2008-09, and would have left them 23rd in 2006-07. Likely in the top five, but probably not the worst team in the league. But if the Oilers beat expectations by five or six points, which isn't all that unfathomable, they'd certainly be out of the bottom five, and might fall out of the bottom ten. The point is, it's hard to finish last in this league unless you get unlucky or your management is willfully trying to lose. Is that what Steve Tambellini's trying to do? I don't think so.
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What If the Oilers Aren’t Terrible?
I’m going to go ahead and not worry about that.
by Benjamin Massey on Sep 3, 2010 11:56 AM MDT reply actions 1 recs
I keep waffling between crippling pessimism and crippling optimism, but I’m going to take the optimistic option.
Moreover, it occurs to me that those middle two options are not necessarily mutually exclusive: the Dallas Stars finished 20th overall and 12th in the West, but were only seven points out of the playoffs, meaning they were in it until near the end. The Wild were only three points worse in 21st/13th. (Imagine if the East wasn’t a bloody joke.) It’s tough out West, but I think you can be somewhat bad and still be within shouting distance of the playoffs, thanks to the Bettman point. And I certainly don’t think this is a horribad team: that level of injury simply can’t sustain itself, and a fully healthy Hemsky, a fully healthy Horcoff, and a fully healthy Souray, if he decides to stay (ha!) make this team loads better, plus Gagner has a lot of room to grow. Plus, Calgary has to fail eventually (dammit), Anaheim still has an even worse D than us, Dallas is one highly-likely injury away from having Andrew Raycroft as their starter, and Colorado and Phoenix should come back to Earth a bit. It’ll be a tough go, but I think this team can possibly finish 10th-11th and look respectable doing so.
The kids are the wildcard, as always. They get soft minutes with a veteran to help babysit, make the most of their opportunities, put up 40-50 points a pop, good things can happen. They get murdered on a nightly basis and finish with 25, well, there’s always the lottery.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Heh, in the time it took me to write this (I was the first vote), the pattern’s already gotten predictable. ;)
Option “F”, of course, is the most correct answer, and will be marked as correct on your ScanTron sheet.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Option F is going to occur regardless of how many points the Oilers have in the standings next year.
On the Mike Weber bandwagon.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.
Bingo.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Projecting the Oilers
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to project EDM to finish 15th in the West, but that isn’t the same as expecting them to actually finish 15th in the West.
They might be the team in the West most likely to finish 15th, but that doesn’t mean there’s a 50% (or greater) chance that they do so, if you know what I’m saying.
by hockeysymposium on Sep 3, 2010 12:26 PM MDT reply actions
They might be the team in the West most likely to finish 15th, but that doesn’t mean there’s a 50% (or greater) chance that they do so, if you know what I’m saying.
This is basically the article in one sentence. I think you and I are on the same page, although there are a couple of other… er… “contenders” for that title. I’ll probably take a closer look once we get closer to the end of September and rosters are closer to being finalized.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 3, 2010 12:42 PM MDT up reply actions
i actually dont think tht we are most likely to finish 15th in the west. If souray is not traded and he plays the entire season, we are actually in a good shape to be 5-10 in the NHL (from bottom)
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
I’m not sure yet. A lot depends on what happens between now and the start of the year. Teams are still tinkering significantly with their rosters. For example, if Souray is healthy, in camp, and ready to play, the Oilers look better than if he’s sitting at home waiting for a trade. A team like Dallas could improve substantially by signing, say, Jose Theodore to form a tandem with Lehtonen instead of relying on Andrew Raycroft. There are still some good defenders out there (Mottau!), and the Ducks will be a lot better if they pick up one or two. in the poll, I went with “bottom ten,” but a lot of the weaknesses on other teams could be addressed a month from now.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 3, 2010 1:13 PM MDT up reply actions
that is true, but i were a betting man, i would say tht isles are worse than us. CBJ arent tht much better either and neither is Florida. I think there is a better chance that we pick 5th than 1st. We should be looking at Ryan Hopkins or David Musil than Larsson or Courtier
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
Meh, I haven't been that impressed with Musil up to this point
A snake taking the pass - Silver Seven
(1) Who knows how your first “if” goes?
(2) It’s early, and I don’t really want to get too deep into projecting standings now, but I wouldn’t expect many to project EDM to finish above the following, at this point :
SJ
DET
VAN
LA
CHI
NSH
COL
STL
ANA
CAL
PHX
If that went as expected above (which of course it probably won’t, due to injuries, etc.), that leaves them 12th-15th. While it’s hard to project exactly how things go at the bottom, they’ve got a ton of ground to make up on MIN, CLB, and DAL. A bunch of that may come from less injuries, improvement, but each of those 4 teams has hope in different areas – we’ll see how it works out.
by hockeysymposium on Sep 3, 2010 1:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Anahiem has really poor D corps. So it could bite them hard. yeah will be fighting with Minny/CBJ for 15th. Also, there are teams like the Isles in the East
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
But ... but ... but ...
… but they have Lubo!
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 3, 2010 2:17 PM MDT up reply actions
They have Lubo, Toni Lydman, and five guys I couldn’t pick out of a lineup. I’d be hard-pressed to say Edmonton’s is worse, even without Souray.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Surely you’ve heard of Sutton as well, but point taken.
I’d be surprised if they go into the year with the D they have, but who knows.
For that matter, maybe some version of Souray for Blake is still doable?
by hockeysymposium on Sep 3, 2010 6:30 PM MDT up reply actions
I have heard of Sutton. I hear he’s some kind of expert.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I did, however, forget he was a Duck until you reminded me.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Do you Western Conference folk think Fowler will make the lineup out of camp?
"Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful" George E.P. Box
by Knee high to a duck on Sep 6, 2010 4:02 PM MDT up reply actions
There doesn’t seem to be a hell of a lot in his way, so I’ll guess yes. Next year for sure. (Well, almost for sure. My crystal ball is at least as cloudy as everyone else’s.)
I’m guessing the Ducks and their fans can’t believe Fowler fell to them, and will treat him like the top five choice many thought he would be. Meaning, a serious opportunity for Cam to fill part of that gaping hole on the blue ASAP.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 6, 2010 10:29 PM MDT up reply actions
How can he not? That D is so terrible.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Always look forward to reading those projections, interesting to see how others look at the same situation.
by hockeysymposium on Sep 3, 2010 1:02 PM MDT up reply actions
http://www.mc79hockey.com/?p=3391#more-3391
great read for people predicting a last place finish for oilers
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
Obviously, several things have to break wrong for the Org to hit rock bottom two years running, but IMO they’re definitely going to be milling around the basement. I see it like this:
Last place: highly improbable,
29-25: wheelhouse (follow the bouncing lotto ball),
24-20: gravy (good compete, fairly high-%-of-success pick),
19-15: no man’s land (but we’ll be a riser in the 2011 power rankings),
14-10: maybe if we trade for Roloson at the deadline,
9-5: the Biggest Surprise of the Season™,
4-1: unprecedented (three Calder nominees).
by Downright Fierce on Sep 3, 2010 12:45 PM MDT reply actions
Those last two would be if St. Gretzky descended from on high and blessed the entire lineup with perfect health, faster skating, and better hockey skill, from 1-23. And also if everyone who made the playoffs last season spontaneously folded.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I have them pegged about 20th, right where I had them at the start of last year before ol’ man hurt me bad has his chance to run through the team.
I don’t think they’ve improved the roster much from last year. The young guys help but I’ll be surpised if they are an actualy upgrade (right now) on guys like O’Sullivan and Nilsson. Plus our blueline got a touch worse, though we did upgrade in net.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Somewhere from 8-14 and they should draft Landeskog!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
There’s the other option too: The Oilers are in fact terrible, but a nice run of bounces keeps them out of the basement. See: Avalanche, Colorado.
That’s almost the worst-case scenario: if we’re going to be awful, I’d rather have results commensurate with that and get another shiny bauble we can lose to free agency in seven years after we Blackhawks our way to a Stanley Cup. But thanks for bringing that up.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
If we want to be really cynical, don’t forget the “Deslauriers spikes with a 0.917 sv% year heading to UFA status, the Oilers sign him to a 3 year, 6.6 mil deal, and then he returns to a 0.900 sv% goalie” option.
by hockeysymposium on Sep 3, 2010 5:57 PM MDT up reply actions
If we want to be really pessimistic, don’t forget the "Deslauriers spikes with a 0.915 sv% year heading to UFA status, the Oilers sign him to a 3 year, 6.6 mil deal, and then he returns to a 0.900 sv% goalie" option.
by hockeysymposium on Sep 3, 2010 5:58 PM MDT up reply actions
I would prefer that this team be freakin’ horrible. Not finishing in the bottom 5 would be a tragedy.
Bout time that they get a run of health. Right when they don’t need it.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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