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Sheldon Souray To The Columbus Blue Jackets?

Columbus beat writer Aaron Portzline tantalized Edmonton fans on Saturday by dropping a blurb about Souray in his training camp notes:

"...they have enough salary-cap space to take a bad contract or two. It seems the perfect fit, and if the Blue Jackets struggle defensively in camp, don't be surprised if it happens."

There was a bit of discussion in our comments section around what sort of return the Oilers could expect and which arguably bad contracts Scott Howson might be looking to unload on Steve Tambellini.  The candidates were Samuel Pahlsson, Chris Clark, Kristian Huselius, and Mike Commodore and / or some combination of those four.

Sunday, Portzline pushed the idea even further with a column today entitled "Blue Jackets Considering Souray" in which he says:

"The Dispatch has learned that there have been internal conversations within the Blue Jackets about trading for Souray, a three-time All-Star with record-setting power play ability and one of the most feared slap shots in the NHL.  The likely candidate to be traded by Columbus would be Mike Commodore, the club's highest-paid defenseman."

Star-divide

Portzline goes on to justify the trade from Scott Howson's viewpoint by looking at salary owed to the player over the next two years, rather than the actual cap hit of Souray's contract.  The difference is large enough to allow Columbus significant savings compared to Commodore's salary owed over the next three years.  Columbus is in financial trouble as season-ticket sales have plunged this year and long-term financial commitments probably aren't a plus for Howson's bosses.  Portzline says:

But there's another way to look at it: the Blue Jackets owe Commodore $10.65 million through the term of his contract (three years), while Souray is due $9 million (two years).

Columbus taking on Souray is a curious move.  Tyler Dellow asked a good question: "Why is Scott Howson trying to reassemble the leadership corps of the 2009-10 Oilers?" making reference to the fact that the Blue Jackets claimed Ethan Moreau from the Oilers in the off-season via the waiver wire and now seem to be interested in Sheldon Souray.   While Mike Commodore makes sense from an Oilers' perspective, saving only $1,650,000 (less actually, since there would be at least $500,000 in replacement salary in the third year) over three years to take on a tainted player doesn't make much sense from the Blue Jackets' perspective. 

It might make more sense for Columbus to include a couple of other things in the trade; adding Clark and Andrew Cogliano saves the team $2,750,000 over three years.  Make that Pahlsson and Cogliano and the Jackets save somewhere in the neighborhood of $4,000,000 over the next three years.  Adding a second player to each side of the deal seems like the best bet for both sides - the Oilers can add a veteran forward to the mix, something they sorely lack, and the Jackets can save two-and-a-half to four times more money over the next three years. 

However, if the Jackets really want to save money, Howson should stand firm with the OIlers and ask Tambellini to bring Souray through re-entry waivers, halving his salary for each of the next two years to $2,750,000, with the Oilers picking up the other half.  Howson could then send Commodore to Edmonton for a seventh-round draft choice, effectively saving $5,150,000 over the next three seasons.  Edmonton, with loads of cap space, and untold millions of retail pharmaceutical dollars to spend, gets rid of a problem child and acquires a reliable second pairing defenseman to boot. Commodore's effectiveness during his time in Columbus has been largely dependent on partner Jan Hejda's health, as they are an excellent shutdown pairing when the Czech is at 100%.  Even if Commodore's effectiveness is limited, he's a better second-pairing option than anyone else currently on the roster or in the system.

I don't know the validity of Portzline's sources, but the move makes sense for both sides.  Edmonton needs an effective defender, and Columbus needs to save some dollars.  Adding in a player to each side increases those savings, and re-entry waivers seems to make the most sense of all.  Either way, it would be an effective move for the Oilers, and a way out of the contract that few could have predicted.  On the other hand, Tyler is right: "Why is Scott Howson trying to reassemble the leadership corps of the 2009-10 Oilers?"

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I think Pahlsson and Commodore makes us a better team. I’d do that, and if we had to send one more their way, so be it. I question including Cogliano in the deal though (he seems to be everyone’s throw in, but I don’t really like that). But even so, with Pahlsson and Commodore, I think this team is a lot better. Pahlsson can be frustrating, offensively, but his defensive abilities would be great to have.

2 needs addressed in one here.

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by Racki on Sep 19, 2010 4:39 PM MDT reply actions  

I think the most likely avenue is through re-entry, I just don’t see how Souray has value right now at full price.

As to the trade, who can Edmonton send that is cheap and useful? Outside of Cogliano, the only one that fits is Colin Fraser.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Sep 19, 2010 5:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well, he obviously doesn’t have positive value; that’s old news. There’s no reason that Columbus wouldn’t take him at full price in consideration of our taking on an equal amount of negative value from them, though.

I have no idea what kind of player Commodore is these days, so I’m not sure if he’s equivalent negative value or not. But I don’t think there’s such thing as a truly untradeable contract, if you’re willing to throw in enough and/or accept enough negative value in return.

by sarcasticidealist on Sep 19, 2010 5:56 PM MDT up reply actions  

This is some confusing stuff from Howson and/or the owners in Columbus. If you need to save money, picking up Ethan Moreau at $1.75M on waivers goes from being really stupid to being really, really stupid. They could have saved themselves $1.25M in real dollars just by not doing that.

As for the deal in question, I doubt that Columbus would want to part with Pahlsson. When they brought Moreau in, it was to fill a spot on Pahlsson’s “shut-down” line. If that plan is going to have any hope of working, Pahlsson will be the one driving the results, so it’s hard to imagine then moving him along.

The re-entry waivers thing is interesting but it assumes that the Oilers would prefer to lose Souray on re-entry and take Commodore back rather than just losing him to re-entry. Personally, I’d rather just lose the contract and not take Commodore back if they’re forced into using re-entry waivers. From Howson’s perspective, there’s also some chance that he doesn’t reach the BJ’s, which would suck for him if he wanted the player. The Leafs and Panthers would both get a chance to nab him first.

by Scott Reynolds on Sep 19, 2010 7:02 PM MDT reply actions  

The Leafs and Panthers would both get a chance to nab him first.

Burke can’t afford him, and Tallon, well, that dude might try anything, so it’s apossibility.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Sep 19, 2010 7:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

Re-Entry Waivers

I am not certain that a trade can involve moving someone through re-entry waivers. It would look very suspicious if the Oilers put Souray on re-entry waivers and then he was claimed by Columbus and then Columbus traded a player the Oilers way for nothing. Also, what would happen if the Leafs or Panthers picked up Souray instead of leaving him for Columbus?

by book!e on Sep 19, 2010 7:16 PM MDT reply actions  

But still it is reminiscent of the moves that the Flames and Phoenix made last season around Vandermeer.

The league doesn’t really seem to look to hard into stuff like that, imo.

by Bar Qu on Sep 19, 2010 10:10 PM MDT up reply actions  

If we lose Souray on re-entry waivers there is no friggin’ way we should be agreeing to take back another contract. The other guys are already getting him at a bargain price.

Let alone also throw in a cheap useful contract like Cogliano as an additional throw-in, that’s like paying them three times over to take Souray off our hands. Makes no sense to me, sorry. Souray for Commodore straight up does, but not if we pay half of the one contract and all of the other AND throw in another decent player.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 19, 2010 11:03 PM MDT reply actions  

I just don’t think Howson is silly enough to take Souray on without sending something back, especially considering he’s financially distressed. I also think he’s a better GM than Tambellini.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Sep 19, 2010 11:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

Right … Commodore. Or even Commodore and Clark. But not Commodore and Clark for Cogliano and Souray and half of Souray’s salary too.

I’d say the jury’s just as far out on Scott Howson at this point as it is on Steve Tambellini. Both of their teams suck.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 19, 2010 11:12 PM MDT up reply actions  

Howson traded his overpaid goalie for Vermette.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Sep 19, 2010 11:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

He’s done some good things – and that Vermette trade was very good – but he’s done some bad things too. He went into last season betting on Steve Mason (and Mathieu Garon), and got burned. He didn’t change a thing with his goaltending going into this season even though there were some pretty good options available. In fact, he’s only brought in one new player this summer, and it’s Ethan Moreau. It’s hard to imagine a worse way to spend $1.75M. There are zero contracts left from the Doug MacLean era and the team is still pretty bad. It’s still too early to know if the drafting has improved since Howson got there, and if it’s improved, that will be a big help. I think Bruce is right that the jury’s still very much out on Howson.

by Scott Reynolds on Sep 20, 2010 7:58 AM MDT up reply actions  

Tambellini traded his overpaid veteran 3rd pairing defencemen to a division rival for a 3rd round pick and a fill-in defenceman!

In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!

by dawgbone98 on Sep 20, 2010 7:58 AM MDT up reply actions  

Howson traded his overpaid goalie for Vermette.

… and now he’s gone and overpaid another goalie. Steve Mason, 2 years, $5.8 MM (!!)

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Sep 20, 2010 12:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

omg he did! I think that the goalie market has overcorrected itself. I expect that over time above average goalies will get around 3 million give or take .5 mil

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Sep 20, 2010 12:38 PM MDT up reply actions  

Meanwhile, his fellow Mason is making just over half that in Atlanta, and has a better track record.

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by Doogie2K on Sep 20, 2010 1:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

Alright, scratch what I said. Tambellini might be able to trade Souray for Brassard or something.

Holy head-scratching deal.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Sep 20, 2010 4:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

It’s a gamble. Howson is betting that the in condition and healthy Steve Mason of 2008-09 and the latter half of 2009-2010 is the real deal, and the out of condition and erratic Mason of the first half of last season is not.

If he’s right? He’s locked him up for less money than guys like Hiller, Bryzgalov, or Craig Anderson, and set the stage for a longer term deal after the new CBA is in place.

If he’s wrong, I have a feeling there are teams that would be willing to take a chance for the right price.

Editor for The Cannon - A Columbus Blue Jackets Blog
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by Matt Wagner on Sep 20, 2010 7:44 PM MDT up reply actions  

From my perspective there are a couple of problems with this thinking. First, Mason is an RFA who wouldn’t have had arbitration rights after this season, so he was negotiating from a position of weakness. Bryzgalov, Hiller, and Anderson (who’s actually making less right now) are all UFA’s who had a lot more leverage in negotiations, so they’re not really a good point of comparison. The result is that, even if Mason plays well, the BJ’s really aren’t saving much money here because they’re buying two RFA years at a high price. Further, because of the way the contract is structured, Mason will be due a $3.2M qualifying offer when it’s over which could be very hard to swallow if he doesn’t play well. That’s not cheap, and the BJ’s could have a tough decision in three years.

The second problem I have with it is Mason hasn’t been a better than average goalie so far in his career, and while that will likely improve with age, the current contract isn’t long enough to really take advantage of that. His EV Sv% in the NHL so far is .917, which is nearly average goaltending, but that number is being held up by his fantastic first twenty starts. After that hot start, Mason has been well below average. To me, that seems like a big concern.

The bet on Mason could work out but it strikes me as a medium-to-high-risk, low-reward gamble.

by Scott Reynolds on Sep 20, 2010 11:18 PM MDT up reply actions  

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