Taylor Hall: #1 in Edmonton's Top 25 Under 25
What's left to say about Taylor Hall that hasn't been said already?
Hall, the #1 overall pick in the recent NHL Entry Draft, has also achieved #1 status on the Copper & Blue's Top 25 Under 25. But I don't suppose that qualifies as earth-shattering news.
Delivered, sealed, and signed to a bonus-laden entry-level contract, Hall arrives in Edmonton on the heels of a highly-decorated junior career in which he led the Windsor Spitfires to the last two Memorial Cup titles and represented Canada four times internationally, winning three gold medals (U-17, U-18, and Ivan Hlinka tournaments) and one silver (U-20). On the individual level, Hall was the CHL's Rookie of the Year in his 15/16 year-old-season, made the OHL All-Star team the next two years, won a playoff MVP (the Wayne Gretzky 99 Award!), a scoring title, and became the first two-time recipient of the Stafford Smythe Memorial Trophy as Memorial Cup MVP. All of this before he was even draft-eligible.
But all of that is in the past. Today, what Taylor Hall represents for Oiler fans is hope. Hope for better days ahead (how can they not be?) and hope for a return to the glory years (not bloody likely, but we can hope).
Taylor Hall is a dynamic player whose style has been described as "visceral" rather than "cerebral". He's not a read-and-react type, he's a guy who will drive the play and force the other guys to react. His combination of speed, skill, and fearlessness has many evoking the Ghosts of Oilers' Past, most often Glenn Anderson and Mark Messier, although Jari Kurri's name has slipped into the conversation as well. Many such comparisons come with a built-in caveat "but he can't be expected to be the same calibre of player as those legends". Well, I disagree. I think he can and should be expected to be a great one (note: lower case; even my high expectations aren't quite that high!).
Lofty expectations go with the territory of the #1 overall pick, which has produced full-blooded superstars about half the time over the past four decades. It's an impressive list: Perreault, Lafleur, Potvin, Bobby Smith, Hawerchuk, Lemieux, Clark, Turgeon, Modano, Sundin, Nolan, Lindros, Thornton, Lecavalier, Kovalchuk, Nash, Ovechkin, Crosby, Kane, Stamkos, Tavares... Hall?
Let's hope that Hall and Anderson share more than fearlessness. Despite being involved in any number of frightful collisions, crashes and mishaps over the years, Anderson seemed indestructible; is Hall built of similar stock? I personally saw him get lit up four or five times last season in limited viewings, most memorably on his first shift in the Memorial Cup where he survived a frightening, and potentially life-changing, face-first crash into the end boards, only to pick himself up and return to score a dazzling highlight-reel goal within a few minutes. In the NHL, where he will have to deal with the likes of Robyn Regehr, Douglas Murray, and Andy Sutton dishing out the punishment, he will need to develop a better sense of self-preservation. The biggest fear about Hall's pell mell style is that he may be destined to spend lots of time on the injured reserve list that has seemingly swallowed Oiler rosters whole in recent years.
So far, however, Hall has stayed healthy, and we can only hope - there's that word again - that he remains so. As he said in his pre-draft interview to the approval of Steve Tambellini and Stu MacGregor, "I need to go to those places". Like a mountain climber or downhill skier, Taylor's game has to be played out near the edge to be effective. Risks are inevitable, he just needs to be a little more aware of managing them. Messier and Anderson did so in part by developing a mean streak that Hall would do well to emulate, at least to a degree.
The heavens know the Oilers are long overdue for a change of both luck and direction. Dynamic players the calibre of Hall have been thin on the ground since Messier, Anderson and the other Oiler legends left town two decades ago. Like them, Taylor Hall arrives in a cluster of talented young forwards including Magnus Pääjärvi, Jordan Eberle, and Sam Gagner. Alas, there is no young defenceman the calibre of Coffey or Lowe, no emerging goalie like Fuhr or Moog, and certainly no Gretzky to lead the parade. There are a couple of elite-quality veterans on the squad in Ales Hemsky and Dustin Penner, but this is still and all a squad that finished 30th overall this past year and won the draft lottery on (de)merit.
As the new kids start driving the bus we can expect a rough ride with plenty of speed bumps along the way. Indeed, that was the case with the original Boys on the Bus; it wasn't always smooth sailing in the early years. But as the young team of the '80s came together, those early years were exciting, fun, and always full of hope. Oiler fans should adopt a similar attitude toward the team of the '10s. Taylor Hall's team.
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Yup. When argumentative types like Scott, Ben, and Derek all agree on something – and they’re right! – you know it was a slam dunk. ;)
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 4, 2010 12:03 PM MDT up reply actions
I was tempted to rank Eberle first just out of a spirit of pioneering contrarianism, but naaah.
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 4, 2010 12:06 PM MDT up reply actions
That, perhaps was easier than the choice in June.
Taylor vs Tyler.
I’ll get a look at Seguin tonight at the Jr. Development Camp.
by Fred Furlong on Aug 4, 2010 12:31 PM MDT up reply actions
It wasn’t for me. The decision between Gagner and Hall was the most difficult of the list for me, at least. In the end, it came down to Hall being the only person in the organization that may one day score 40.
But if Hall doesn’t get there and Gagner ends up as Stephen Weiss…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I just can’t wait to see that Hall – Gagner – Abney line in action a couple of years from now. Brilliance, brains and brawn. Stu you magnificent bastard indeed.
Having Cam Abney on that line is like making a meal from caviar, lobster, and Spam.
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 4, 2010 12:56 PM MDT up reply actions
I am not sold that Hall is the best under 25er in the system. Personally I think there is a good argument that if Gagner was draft eligible this year (with a similar point totals to his draft eligible year) that he would have been the consensus #1 pick. Although the point may not be relevant I just have a hard time ranking Hall ahead of Gagner until he shows me what he has for the NHL.
If Hall gets to 21 without having some 50-point seasons under his belt, I for one will be sorely disappointed.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 4, 2010 2:01 PM MDT up reply actions
See my comment above. It was the most difficult choice on the list. But there is no other player in the system that can score goals like Hall. It’s very, very close for me. If we were allowed to have a tie at number one, I would’ve.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Hall had 38 and 40 goals his last 2 years in the OHL, which was 0.60 and 0.70 goals per game respectively.
Sam Gagner in his draft year put up 0.66 goals per game. My problem is I just don’t think Taylor Hall is all that great. His counting numbers compare similar to those of Stamkos and tavares, but he’s well behind them in goal scoring.
Compared to past #1 picks, he’s left in the dust by Crosby, Ovechkin and Patrick Kane. I can’t really find a good comparable to him. He doesn’t have huge point totals and he doesn’t have particularily high goal totals.
I don’t think there’s anything embarrassing in not being as good as Crosby, Ovechkin, or Patrick Kane. There were a few recent years with really great first overall picks so we tend forget that such seasons aren’t the norm.
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 4, 2010 3:36 PM MDT up reply actions
It’s not that they aren’t that we are ripping on Hall for not being Crosby, AO or Kane, just saying that Hall isn’t in this calibre and it’s very likely he isn’t the best player under 25 on the team, and at least he certainly isn’t yet.
I am inbetween Derek and Dawg here, I don’t think Hall is the best under 25er, but I don’t think it’s super clear that Gags is either.
he isn’t the best player under 25 on the team, and at least he certainly isn’t yet
“Yet” doesn’t really enter into it, we’re not so much evaluating who’s the best right now as projecting into the future. It’s just that we’re projecting a little further for Hall than for Gagner.
I’m not sure I’m quite ready to anoint Patrick Kane in the league of AO or Crosby either, Cup-winning goal or no Cup-winning goal.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 4, 2010 4:18 PM MDT up reply actions
"Yet" doesn’t really enter into it, we’re not so much evaluating who’s the best right now as projecting into the future. It’s just that we’re projecting a little further for Hall than for Gagner.
Now the rankings make more sense. I don’t think the fact that you were projecting the futures of these players was ever really mentioned. In this case I would likely rank Hall ahead of Gagner too.
But there are other problems with looking at the players through potential and Ben’s Eberle article. Potential is a very ambigious concept, and it would be easy to go and say that MPS could be ranked ahead of Gagner too, and Pitlick infront of Smid or Eberle.
I’m pretty sure we all used different criteria to rank the players.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Yeah, I think this came up a while ago in the comments from Speeds. I’m ranking guys based on answering the same question over and over again: “If these two players were restricted free agents (no arbitration rights, no QO to be made) and were traded for one another, which player would you rather have?”
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 4, 2010 5:39 PM MDT up reply actions
By that measure, I’d put Gagner in front of Hall.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Really? I find that surprising. I would have thought that “potential to score forty goals” would have been weighted similarly using that criteria. Do you rate peak potential higher for this list than you would if assessing a trade?
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 4, 2010 5:51 PM MDT up reply actions
I think Gagner is less of an injury risk. He’s a center. He’s smarter.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That all makes sense. I’m just confused at why those things are more important in assessing trade value than they are in what you used to assess the players for your rankings in this list.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 4, 2010 8:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Because I’m not trading one for the other in my evaluation.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I recognize that. That’s not my question though. My question is, “What is it about your evaluation process that’s significantly different from the ‘trade evaluation’ I presented, to the point that you’d end up with a different result in the two scenarios?”
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 4, 2010 9:06 PM MDT up reply actions
So you’re saying that Taylor Hall isn’t even as good as Jakub Voracek? Now I’m depressed.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 4, 2010 9:08 PM MDT up reply actions
The choice at the time was Gagner and Voracek. There are many out there who still think the Oilers would have been better off with the winger.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 5, 2010 12:51 AM MDT up reply actions
I’m just not sure how you figured from my comments that I’d prefer Voracek. Was that intended toward Derek, or just as a general comment?
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 5, 2010 11:21 AM MDT up reply actions
General comment. I prefer Gagner to Voracek myself, but not to Hall.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 5, 2010 12:59 PM MDT up reply actions
I look at my list from four main angles:
Draft pedigree – how are the players drafted around him faring and how have they fared before?
Reported (or observed) skillset, especially skills that are professional level already. A guy like Max Afinogenov will always find a job because of his skating.
NHLE
Organizational needs and the depth chart in front of the prospect. One of Lander or VandeVelde is going to get multiple chances to win the third center job over the next couple of years. I’m betting on VandeVelde because he’s bigger, a better skater and with any sort of injury to a center will be on the Oilers pretty quickly.
In that case, when I break down Gagner and Hall, they end up neck and neck. I look at Hall as a better scorer and gave him the edge.
If I were trading them heads up, Hall’s injury concerns would weigh on the decision.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
There were a few recent years with really great first overall picks so we tend forget that such seasons aren’t the norm.
Depends on what you mean by “really great”. If you’re talking about generational talent, not too often. But if you look at my list in the article, that’s 21 mighty fine players in the past 40 years. And that includes a few mistakes, e.g. Daigle over Pronger. We just have to hope the Oilers got it right.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 4, 2010 4:51 PM MDT up reply actions
My working comps for Hall are Jason Spezza and Patrick Marleau. Marleau is a bit tricky since, although he’s close in age, he was basically drafted a year earlier, but he looks like a decent comp to me. Spezza’s birthday is about as far apart as they come, but the two were quite comparable in their draft years.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 4, 2010 5:48 PM MDT up reply actions
Those seem like good comps to me.
I over-spoke when I said I don’t think Hall is that great. Sorry, I spent a lot of time reading the comments at LT’s and at HF where some were touting him as the best Canadian since Crosby and how he’s going to be an elite player.
I think he’ll be quality, but I think a good high marker for him is Spezza, and a low marker as Marleau (obviously in an everything goes right scenario).
You’re forgetting that Hunter doesn’t post here.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I’m not too fond of Patty Kane. 1st overall is really the only thing I hope they ever have in common.
To be honest, I am glad we have Sam Gagner instead of Pat Kane. I still hold out hope that Turris will be better than Kane. Cocky little……
Personally, I think Edmonton cabbies could use a little tuning up so I’d like Patrick Kane just fine.
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 4, 2010 8:50 PM MDT up reply actions
That’s twice I’ve used that particular shot. I took one at almost the same moment, but it isn’t as good. (For some unexplained reason, he was smiling at you, not me.)
Thanks again, BlueBelle!
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 5, 2010 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for the series guys… it didn’t disappoint.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 5, 2010 11:29 AM MDT reply actions

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