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Faceoffs - The Best and Worst Since the Lockout

A couple of years ago now Derek was so impressed by Andrew Cogliano's faceoff "prowess" that he took it upon himself to look at the worst faceoff seasons since 2000.  At the time he said, "it's clear that Cogliano's the worst faceoff man in the NHL overall since 2000."  I decided to update the data, using only EV FO%, and it seems to me there's now a real contender to take Cogliano's crown.  We'll take a look at the best and worst on draws since the lockout after the jump.

Star-divide

First, let's take a look at the worst players.  In order to qualify, a player needs to have taken at least 400 EV faceoffs in a given season.  In other words, the coach trusts this guy to be one of his regulars on the draw, and the player is just terrible:

 

Fo_s_1_medium

All of the players highlighted in blue earned their poor season in the circle as a rookie (which I defined as having fewer than 10 NHL games before the season started), and there are a lot of rookies.  Some of that is because young players seem to improve over time, a question I'll look at in more detail this afternoon.  But that's probably not the biggest reason.  It seems to me that the biggest reason is probably survivor bias.  None of Josh Bailey, Bryan Little, Kyle Turris, or Andrew Cogliano took enough draws to qualify in 2009-10.  If you aren't very good, you don't keep getting put out there.

That is, unless your name is Evgeni Malkin or Eric Staal.  Staal has a couple of the worst fifteen seasons since the lockout.  Remember that old saw about Adam Oates teaching Jarret Stoll and the boys to win draws?  Rod Brind'Amour must be a terrible teacher.  But Staal's results don't even really compare to Malkin's.  Four consecutive seasons in the bottom twenty, including the second worst season on record, is an impressive achievement.  When you consider that the Penguins desperately need some quality wingers to play with Jordan Staal and Sidney Crosby, it's almost baffling that Malkin gets trotted out at center again and again.  It'll be interesting to see if the Penguins do move him over (there has been some talk of that, I understand).  Until then, Malkin gets my vote for the worst faceoff man in the league.

Now what about the other side of the range?  Once again, I'll look at just those players with at least 400 EV FO's.  The rookies are, once again, highlighted in blue (heh):

Fo_s_2_medium

There are a few interesting things to note on this list.  One guy here who really surprised me was Zenon Konopka.  I understand that he's, essentially, a fighter, which makes him just about the most specialized player in the league: a fightin' faceoff specialist.  He also draws more penalties than he takes to go along with an obscene ZoneStart (29.0%), and given that context, not-so-bad Corsi results.  Earlier this year there were some rumours the Oilers might be interested and my initial reaction was, "No Goons!"  Looking at it a bit closer, Konopka may actually be one of the best regular fighters in the league in other areas.  At the very least, he would seem to be a net contributor to winning games.  So yeah, let's get rid of MacIntyre and get ourselves some Zenon Konopka!

Another player I wanted to talk about is Kris Draper.  He's on the list multiple times, but last season he didn't have enough draws to qualify, despite not slowing down (at least in this area).  He played in 81 games, so I found it pretty surprising that this strength wasn't used, especially since the Wings had some struggles on the dot.  It would be interesting to hear Mike Babcock talk about why he didn't use Draper more frequently. 

Another interesting thing about this list is the (multiple-time) presence of Scott Nichol and Manny Malhotra.  The Sharks had an embarrassment of riches on the draw last year, and it showed.  One of the things this list demonstrates is that faceoff prowess is a skill.  Sure, there's variation from season-to-season, but in general, this is a repeatable skill.

Poll
Who is the worst faceoff-man in the NHL?
Andrew Cogliano
130 votes
Evgeni Malkin
240 votes
Somebody Else
46 votes

416 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 20 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Draper has nothing left. Winning a face off does the team no good if you’re a liability afterwards.

The difference between him and Perreault is that somehow Draper still has an NHL job.

by zys on Aug 29, 2010 12:40 PM MDT reply actions  

Long-term contracts will do that for you. I’d imagine that you’re right and that next season will be his last. That said, they did still put him in the lineup every night. If they’re going to do that, you’d think that they’d have him do the one thing he still does well.

by Scott Reynolds on Aug 29, 2010 3:35 PM MDT up reply actions  

Babcock looks committed to playing Draper at left-wing. Drew Miller hadn’t played center at any level, but Babcock opted to try him in the middle at one point, rather than return Draper to his old position. I suppose the real question, then, is why Babcock insists on having the center take faceoffs.

by BrianW on Aug 29, 2010 7:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

Draper may not have much scoring left but he’s still a fast guy and playing alongside Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves, it had to be one of the quickest lines in the league.

by Casey Richey on Aug 30, 2010 8:35 AM MDT up reply actions  

I’d be surprised if Draper even plays that much next year. The Wings brought basically everyone back and added Hudler and Modano. And, in the playoffs, he received the fewest TOI per game of any regular Wings forward. Once Darren Helm was promoted full time, they gave a lot of Draper’s old responsibilities to him in an attempt to groom him for the coming seasons. He now takes a lot of faceoffs and is on the #1 PK unit.

by Scottwood on Aug 29, 2010 7:10 PM MDT reply actions  

I figured that he’s lost his spot to Helm. At a certain point, teams do need to move on, and Helm is a good player. The Wings did lose Williams and Maltby, so the two new players shouldn’t push anyone out necessarily, but Modano does provide another centerman, so that makes it even less likely Draper gets to take many draws. Still, if I was Babcock, I’d be awfully tempted to use Draper as a fogo (face-off get-off) man in the defensive zone to allow some of those offensive players to rest a bit before jumping on the ice with the puck going the right way.

by Scott Reynolds on Aug 29, 2010 8:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

Maltby missed all of the playoffs last season, and Williams ended up being a healthy scratch the majority of the playoffs. So, neither player that left opened up any spots, per se. Those guys didn’t play anyway. They ended up going with Abdelkader on the 4th line. He was just re-signed and they were talking about him taking on a bigger role and maybe getting some PK time. The top 9 is already set. So, assuming Eaves and/ or Drew Miller just drops down from the 3rd line to the 4th line, then Draper will probably be the odd man out and rotate in occasionally as needed. Its what the Wings did for Chelios in his final season with the team. The “fogo” role is an intriguing idea, and I imagine that will be looked into. He’s done it in the past. And, other than leadership, its probably the only role he could really fill on the team.

Draper fell off pretty quickly after he got his extension. The Wings have usually been very good at knowing which veterans have enough left in the tank to contribute in a specific role on the team. The success they have had with said vets has been well documented. But, they missed the boat with Draper. With Draper and Osgood falling off like they have, I doubt Holland will be giving out 3 year deals to 35+ guys anymore.

by Scottwood on Aug 29, 2010 9:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

The other thing about Zenon Konopka is that his name is Zenon effing Konopka. Even if he did blow ass at hockey, you’d want to be on his good side because he’s clearly part of the reconn unit for an imminent alien invasion.

by Passive Voice on Aug 29, 2010 9:29 PM MDT reply actions  

Wow, Jochen Hecht is here. I’d never guess that he would make this list.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 29, 2010 10:05 PM MDT reply actions  

I was also surprised on that one. More surprising still is that it’s also the only two years he qualified. He’s really just not good at faceoffs.

by Scott Reynolds on Aug 29, 2010 10:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah, but he’s such an amazing defender. It’s weird because the narrative typically associates good defenders with being good at faceoffs.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 30, 2010 7:47 AM MDT up reply actions  

Jochen Hecht

Hey, he takes faceoffs pretty well considering he doesn’t play center. The sabres just didn’t have any centers (because they only have two and Tim Connolly tends to be injured)

On the Mike Weber bandwagon.
Everything wrong with the Sabres is Drew Stafford's fault.

by Ubiquitous on Aug 30, 2010 10:56 AM MDT up reply actions  

and Tim Connolly tends to be injured suck at faceoffs.

I know it’s both things, but over the five year sample Connolly has years of 43.4%, DNQ, DNQ, 42.7%, and 45.2%. That’s awful. The Sabres only had Roy and Gaustad with any kind of track record, but after adding Niedermayer in the off-season, they should be a bit better on draws next year.

by Scott Reynolds on Aug 30, 2010 2:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

On Draper

Last year, Draper primarily played alongside Darren Helm and Patrick Eaves as a winger. They’ve been trying to throw Helm into the mix to become a better faceoff man and it helped to have a guy like Draper there to fill in when Helm would get booted. Helm wasn’t terrible last year and I think they were just trying to work things out for Helm in the longer run. Interesting post though.

by Casey Richey on Aug 30, 2010 8:41 AM MDT reply actions  

They’re playing 4th line minutes, right? He’s essentially about to become Yanic Perreault.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 30, 2010 8:51 AM MDT up reply actions  

They did play the 3rd line the majority of the year, but that was primarily due to the number of injuries the Wings had. Specifically, the long term injury to Franzen effectively meant that for the majority of the year, most of their wingers had to either get a bump up to a different line or take on tougher competition than Babcock would prefer. Once Franzen came back, they really reduced Draper’s minutes. Of the forwards who played more than 3 games in the playoffs, he and Abdelkader were the only ones who were on the ice for less than 8 minutes at ES, and they sheltered Draper by giving him a lot of offensive zone draws. He still played some with Helm and Eaves, but lines are pretty fluid. For example, Holmstrom plays on a scoring line with Datsyuk, but they only use him in specific situations and monitor his minutes at ES. As the puck is heading toward the defensive end of the rink, he will often change on the fly with a more defensively responsible player like Dan Cleary. If one would only say that Holmstrom plays on the 1st line at ES, then that would leave out a lot of valuable information about his actual role on the team.

With Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen, Filppula, Cleary, Bertuzzi, Holmstrom, Hudler and Modano, the top 9 is pretty much set. Lines will vary throughout the year as they do have a lot of options, but those guys are virtually guaranteed to be placed into scoring line roles on one of the first 3 lines.

And, the bottom line guys are set to be 3 of Helm, Abdelkader, Eaves, Miller and Draper (or Ritola if he’s kept). Helm, Eaves and Miller all play on the PK and have a specific role they can play. They talked all summer about giving Abdelkader a bigger opportunity and about how much they value his physicality. Or, in Jim Nill’s words, his “unique skill set.” Given that his faceoffs were drastically reduced, he doesn’t PK anymore and gets soft minutes, Draper differs from those guys b/c he doesn’t really have a defined role on the team.

I would expect Helm and Abdelkader to be given priority as both will draw a lot of penalties to set up a pretty gifted PP (although, Abdelkader will take his fair share, as well), and they have talked about possibly giving Abdelkader a role on the PK. Then, I think it would be a battle between Miller and Eaves for the last spot on the line, as both could also play on the PK. I think there will also be a shift, and they are going to rely on those guys to eat up a lot of the defensive zone faceoffs that the team has, so they can give their 3 scoring lines as many easy situations as they can as a way to exploit the other team.

This post turned out really long, But, basically, Miller, Helm and Eaves were each relied on more last year than Draper and Nill and Holland talked up Abdlekader all summer. Given that, I don’t see where or why Draper would play all that much. There will be injuries throughout the year and he’ll fill in when those pop up. But, otherwise, I’d expect them to go with a youth movement and phase Draper out of the lineup.

by Scottwood on Aug 30, 2010 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

James Sheppard sucks

Anyone want him?

Proprietor of Hockey Wilderness - We take Minnesota hockey WAY too seriously.

by nathaneide on Aug 30, 2010 8:49 AM MDT reply actions   1 recs

I knew you’d like this post.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 30, 2010 8:52 AM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah

Like we need any additional “Anti-Sheppard” ammo.

Proprietor of Hockey Wilderness - We take Minnesota hockey WAY too seriously.

by nathaneide on Aug 30, 2010 11:19 AM MDT up reply actions  

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