The Best Forwards In The NHL - Adding Special Teams
Recently, I've been writing about the best of the best - the forwards that are facing the toughest competition in the league, year-in and year-out. My original criteria, "play the toughest minutes for their team while playing a minimum of 65 games each year," helped to create the original list. That list showed even strength prowess by way of goals for and goals against. In all, sixteen forwards have met those criteria over the last three years, nine of them centers.
In order to compare and contrast the players on the list, I've looked in on the degree of difficulty and normalized Corsi* based on Zonestart and found that a couple of defensive demons looked even better by that measure. While Scott has done some excellent work concerning the power play and the penalty kill, most of the stats crunching I do looks at even strength play. Today, however, I'll delve into the special teams performance of the sixteen tough minutes forwards to compare responsibilities and contributions in all facets of the game.
*For a detailed explanation of hockey's advanced metrics, see this FAQ at Behind The Net Hockey.
The short-handed numbers continue a theme that began in the Zonestart article, namely that Jay McClement is outstanding. I've sorted the table below by total time on ice over the last three years.
These tables are sortable by column -- simply click on the desired column header cell.
| Player | PKTOI Total | GA Total | GA/60 |
| Jay McClement | 785.61 | 66 | 5.04 |
| Samuel Pahlsson | 682.76 | 74 | 6.50 |
| Mike Richards | 617.02 | 71 | 6.90 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 539.46 | 64 | 7.12 |
| Rick Nash | 539.38 | 62 | 6.90 |
| Jochen Hecht | 518.23 | 47 | 5.44 |
| Daniel Alfredsson | 499.41 | 48 | 5.77 |
| Martin Hanzal | 443.8 | 62 | 8.38 |
| Martin St. Louis | 379.66 | 45 | 7.11 |
| Henrik Zetterberg | 354.81 | 39 | 6.60 |
| Pavel Datsyuk | 326.71 | 34 | 6.24 |
| Scott Gomez | 316.23 | 25 | 4.74 |
| Milan Hejduk | 289.13 | 26 | 5.40 |
| Eric Staal | 263.24 | 33 | 7.52 |
| Stephen Weiss | 218.94 | 18 | 4.93 |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | 57.37 | 4 | 4.18 |
In our group of sixteen McClement stands out. He averages 3.20 minutes of penalty kill time per game, second only to Samuel Pahlsson's 3.41, and McClement's goals against / 60 is a microscopic 5.04. Also notable on this list is Jochen Hecht, a one-time Oiler who became Jeff Deslauriers and Jarret Stoll, and who's now an incredibly unsung tough-minutes rock for the Sabres. His GA/60 is 5.44, second best on this list among regular penalty killers. Mike Richards is third on the list for total PKTOI, and also third on a per-game basis. He averages 2.63 minutes per game short-handed, something that becomes even more amazing when power play time on ice is taken into consideration.
Ilya Kovalchuk's power play time leaps off of the page. He averages 5.38 minutes per game on the power play, a full minute more than Martin St. Louis, second on the list with 4.25 minutes per game.
| Player | PPTOI Total | GF Total | GF/60 |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | 1260.1 | 127 | 6.05 |
| Martin St. Louis | 1046.32 | 119 | 6.82 |
| Eric Staal | 947.14 | 102 | 6.46 |
| Pavel Datsyuk | 846.38 | 113 | 8.01 |
| Daniel Alfredsson | 828.97 | 101 | 7.31 |
| Mike Richards | 828.69 | 113 | 8.18 |
| Henrik Zetterberg | 792.11 | 109 | 8.26 |
| Scott Gomez | 784.87 | 73 | 5.58 |
| Rick Nash | 761.04 | 73 | 5.76 |
| Milan Hejduk | 755.67 | 78 | 6.19 |
| Stephen Weiss | 701.36 | 67 | 5.73 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 679.18 | 60 | 5.30 |
| Martin Hanzal | 409.8 | 32 | 4.69 |
| Jochen Hecht | 297.6 | 26 | 5.24 |
| Samuel Pahlsson | 101.78 | 12 | 7.07 |
| Jay McClement | 35.92 | 1 | 1.67 |
McClement, Pahlsson, and Hecht all fall to the bottom of the power play list while Mike Richards stays near the top. He's averaged 3.54 minutes of PP TOI over the last three seasons - the Flyers rely on him heavily in all three facets of the game. His goals for / 60 of 8.18 is second to Henrik Zetterberg, showcasing his productivity with a man advantage.
Back to Kovalchuk - although he plays an enormous amount of time on the power play, his GF/60 of 6.05 is ninth on this list. Rick Nash also lags behind considering his status as an offensive superstar, though it's been widely known that the Blue Jackets have had the worst power play in the league for a couple of years.
Finally, we bring all of the three-year totals together. The table below shows even strength goal differential per sixty minutes, the aggregate Zonestart, normalized Corsi per sixty, penalty kill goals against per sixty, power play goals for per sixty and their 2010-2011 cap number.
| Player | ESDIFF/60 | ZS | Norm Corsi/60 | PKGA/60 | PPGF/60 | Cap # 10/11 |
| Eric Staal | 0.436 | -103 | 6.54 | 7.52 | 6.46 | $ 8,250,000 |
| Rick Nash | 0.18 | -47 | 3.92 | 6.90 | 5.76 | $ 7,800,000 |
| Scott Gomez | 0.228 | -293 | 6.29 | 4.74 | 5.58 | $ 7,357,143 |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | 0.036 | 66 | -5.17 | 4.18 | 6.05 | $7,357,143* |
| Pavel Datsyuk | 1.6 | -105 | 20.47 | 6.24 | 8.01 | $ 6,700,000 |
| Henrik Zetterberg | 0.96 | -78 | 20.33 | 6.60 | 8.26 | $ 6,083,333 |
| Mike Richards | 0.356 | 417 | 5.82 | 6.90 | 8.18 | $ 5,750,000 |
| Shawn Horcoff | -0.268 | 242 | -0.44 | 7.12 | 5.30 | $ 5,500,000 |
| Martin St. Louis | -0.08 | -423 | -5.39 | 7.11 | 6.82 | $ 5,250,000 |
| Daniel Alfredsson | 0.256 | -179 | 1.24 | 5.77 | 7.31 | $ 4,875,000 |
| Jochen Hecht | 0.06 | 54 | 2.09 | 5.44 | 5.24 | $ 3,525,000 |
| Martin Hanzal | -0.188 | 197 | 2.34 | 8.38 | 4.69 | $3,525,000* |
| Stephen Weiss | 0.588 | 97 | 1.85 | 4.93 | 5.73 | $ 3,100,000 |
| Milan Hejduk | 0.12 | 6 | -3.39 | 5.40 | 6.19 | $ 3,000,000 |
| Samuel Pahlsson | -0.56 | 365 | -1.92 | 6.50 | 7.07 | $ 2,650,000 |
| Jay McClement | -0.656 | 411 | -3.18 | 5.04 | 1.67 | $ 1,450,000 |
*Denotes estimated cap hit
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i think it’s only natural that kovalchuk’s GF/60 on the power play is not very high, given that he often plays the entire 2 minutes. offhand i’d say that staal, gomez, nash, datsyuk, zetterberg, alfredsson, weiss and st. louis all play first unit minutes, with guys like hanzal and hecht getting 2nd unit minutes. my suspicion is that league-wide, second units score less for a myriad of reasons, but one that comes to mind immediately is that 2nd unit players rarely play on a 5 on 3.
Assuming Derek pulled the GF/60 numbers from behindthenet…this chart would only account for 5v4 PPs.
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by George E. Ays on Aug 23, 2010 10:48 AM MDT up reply actions
Still, that is a good point. Kovy probably plays around 1:30 per PP and would likely see time with the second, almost-certainly-not-as-good-as-the-first unit (I see the same with Green and Ovechkin).
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by red army line on Aug 23, 2010 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions
But would also see time against the second-best penalty killers.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The PKers tend to switch a lot more frequently, so I’d bet that QT is a much bigger factor than QC if you’re comparing the results of PP guys on the same team.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 23, 2010 5:43 PM MDT up reply actions
Kovalchuk also played the point on the power play quite often, which will no doubt take his numbers down a peg.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 23, 2010 5:44 PM MDT up reply actions
Mike Richards
Wow. Just wow. After seeing these posts my respect for him as a player has gone up a whole bunch.
yeah…a very good buddy of mine has a serious man crush on him!
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
Is your buddy Pierre McGuire?
I’m actually surprised at how high both Richards’ PKGA/60 and PPGF/60 are. I thought that both would be lower. Oh well, You’re awesome, Mike!
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by Geoff Detweiler on Aug 23, 2010 11:50 AM MDT up reply actions
His PKGA doesn’t actually look so good, at least compared to this group. Was your impression that he was a poor PK guy?
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 23, 2010 5:47 PM MDT up reply actions
Suddenly Scott Gomez doesn’t look as quite so bad a deal. Of course, if he plays for the Habs for another 4 years, his Corsi numbers will crater and he’ll fall off this list…
It’s actually a question that I will take a shot at answering one day:
What is the relative worth of a forward that takes on the tough competition and consistently beats it?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
i think gomez’s corsi should already be taken with a grain of salt because of his shot selection – his shooting percentage is consistently among the worst for forwards with over 100 shots. it’s hard to say how much that affects his corsi, but i’d guess it’s not insignificant.
POS Syndrome?
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by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 23, 2010 3:18 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m really confused by what you’re saying here. Because Gomez shoots a low percentage his Corsi is good?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Because Gomez wastes a lot of possessions on low-percentage shots, his Corsi is imrpoved?
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by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 23, 2010 3:49 PM MDT up reply actions
He’s about middling in the league on shot distance. Maybe it’s not low-percentage shots, maybe he’s just a bad shooter, making all of his shots low percentage?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
that still doesn’t invalidate what bruce is saying – and yes, bruce summed up what i was trying to say.
watching gomez for years, he tries to pass pucks off the goalie by shooting it into his pads and hoping a rebound kicks out to someone. i’ll look into his on ice s% over the last 3 years – time on ice isn’t really cooperating right now. i don’t have doubts that gomez can at least break even against top competition, but i do think he’s helped by thinking that corsi is the best measure of territoriality.
In 2008, for all forwards with 100+ shots, Gomez was 116/265 in expected avg. player shooting percentage, in front of such luminaries as:
Nikolai Zherdev, Kris Versteeg, Derek Roy, Milan Hejduk, Vincent Lecavalier, Nathan Horton, Ilya Kovalchuk, Martin Havlat, Eric Staal, Zach Parise, Mike Richards, Anze Kopitar, Alexander Semin, Rick Nash, Jiri Hudler,
Patrick Sharp, Patrice Bergeron, Brian Gionta, James Neal, Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Dustin Brown,
Jeff Carter, Alexander Ovechkin, Patrik Elias, Simon Gagne, Ales Hemsky, Pavol Demitra, Daniel Alfredsson, Henrik Zetterberg, Jarome Iginla, Jason Spezza, Marian Hossa, Mikko Koivu, Tomas Plekanec, Marc Savard, Mikael Samuelsson, Brad Richards
He’s getting himself in a better position to shoot than all of these above, so this has nothing to do with his “shot selection”.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
so shot location is the sole determinant of shot quality? while that’s quality research, i don’t think that tells the entire story. furthermore, even with such a middling shot location, he produces generally terrible results, if we’re just counting shots on goal/goals.
my contention, as i wrote above, is that gomez is intentionally taking low-percentage shots to set up teammates, and that this strategy may or may not be successful. timeonice wasn’t working when i tried it earlier, so i couldn’t see his S% on; i am pretty sure that the rangers’ s% as a whole was pretty rotten in 2008. i’d be curious about how many gomez primary assists are actually rebounds versus the rest of the league, but i’d have no idea how to find this out in an efficient manner.
His on-ice ES shooting percentage in Montreal was 8.51%
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
6.2% in 09 and 7.4% in 08. still, i guess that probably means whatever effect there is, it’s presumably tiny.
If you read French, the always-awesome Olivier took a look at Gomez and whether he’s actually a chucker, by looking at whether his shifts end in a goalie freeze:
http://enattendantlesnordiques.blogspot.com/2010/08/gomez-ii.html
My personal philosophy about Gomez is that, even if it were true that he is taking low-percentage shots and chucking the puck uselessly at the net, this is still a welcome change to the usual Hab tactic of packing the defensive slot with bodies and letting the other guys shoot. :)
I’m more worried about the effect playing for the Habs is having on Gomez’s overall Corsi numbers. They took a serious drop when he joined the Habs (like virtually all players’ do) and I don’t really expect them to go back up next year. He’s probably falling off the list in a few years.
Has there been much study on team effects on individual Corsi? Not so much linemates, but how going to a different team can affect a guy’s individual numbers?
The seemingly obvious answer to value would be that a player who contributes to five goals for and one goal against is better than a player who contributes to ten goals for and twelve goals against.
However, looking at the relative value makes it a lot more interesting, because if none of the GMs seem willing to throw big money to McKee, Hanzal and his ilk, then their relative value obviously isn’t as high as their objective value would be.
That would certainly be an interesting post.
This would be an interest post. Especially thinking how the Hanzal’s, Weiss’s, Hecht’s, McClement’s, etc.’s of this world in a sense provide value to their 1st or even 2nd line teammates who then are freed to play lesser competition. An extreme example is the Kesler-H.Sedin symbiosis this last season. I imagine that Bob Gainey was a predecessor to a lot of the folks on this list.
But then imagine a world where agents and their players start talking in terms not unlike Derek’s (and many many others). Could GMs start giving them bigger contracts? Or will boxcars still rule as long as fans keep paying attention to them and not the more advanced ones?
imagine a world where agents and their players start talking in terms not unlike Derek’s
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by John Fischer on Aug 23, 2010 9:24 PM MDT up reply actions

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