Best Forwards In The NHL - Normalizing Corsi
I've written about the best before - those forwards that, year in and year out, face the tough competition, and in some cases, outscore that tough competition. Those forwards are unique in that they are given the most difficult opponents every year, sometimes at the discretion of multiple coaching staffs (Rick Nash, Scott Gomez, Martin Hanzal, Samuel Pahlsson, Stephen Weiss, Daniel Alfredsson, and Shawn Horcoff). I've also talked about Zonestart and its impact on Corsi. Essentially, a person starting play in his own end is going to struggle. To quote from that article:
It's obvious that defensive zone starts will have an impact on Corsi - it's difficult for a player to direct shots at the opponents' net when he's starting 175 feet away from that net. We've previously graphed the inverse relationship between Zonestart and Corsi at the team level, but Vic Ferrari and Jlikens have worked out the math at the individual level. Vic demonstrated that each net offensive Zonestart is worth +.6 Fenwick, and Jlikens demonstrated that each net offensive Zonestart is worth +.8 Corsi.
Presented below is a table showing the DZ - OZ split for the tough minutes forwards in the league over the last three years. I've normalized their Corsi values using the multiplier mentioned above and determined the difference in the last column. All stats are taken from Desjardins' Behind The Net.
These tables are sortable by column -- simply click on the desired column header cell.
| Player | DZ | OZ | ZS | Corsi/60 | Norm Corsi/60 | Δ |
| Pavel Datsyuk | 876 | 981 | -105 | 21.914 | 20.47 | -1.444 |
| Henrik Zetterberg | 806 | 884 | -78 | 21.486 | 20.33 | -1.154 |
| Eric Staal | 999 | 1102 | -103 | 7.977 | 6.54 | -1.433 |
| Scott Gomez | 736 | 1029 | -293 | 10.400 | 6.29 | -4.111 |
| Mike Richards | 1255 | 838 | 417 | -0.449 | 5.82 | 6.269 |
| Rick Nash | 970 | 1017 | -47 | 4.600 | 3.92 | -0.678 |
| Martin Hanzal | 898 | 701 | 197 | -0.931 | 2.34 | 3.270 |
| Jochen Hecht | 872 | 818 | 54 | 1.238 | 2.09 | 0.849 |
| Stephen Weiss | 1037 | 940 | 97 | 0.378 | 1.85 | 1.475 |
| Daniel Alfredsson | 745 | 924 | -179 | 4.072 | 1.24 | -2.828 |
| Shawn Horcoff | 1044 | 802 | 242 | -4.424 | -0.44 | 3.984 |
| Samuel Pahlsson | 974 | 609 | 365 | -8.745 | -1.92 | 6.825 |
| Jay McClement | 1073 | 662 | 411 | -10.172 | -3.18 | 6.992 |
| Milan Hejduk | 813 | 807 | 6 | -3.488 | -3.39 | 0.096 |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | 1010 | 944 | 66 | -6.077 | -5.17 | 0.904 |
| Martin St. Louis | 794 | 1217 | -423 | -0.060 | -5.39 | -5.330 |
This look shows just how differently tough minutes players are used and how their starting position impacts their on-ice performance. The leaders in raw Corsi are, for the most part, taking their faceoffs in the offensive zone. The players that see the biggest gains in normalized Corsi are those that spend their time taking defensive zone faceoffs.
Jay McClement, Mike Richards, Samuel Pahlsson, Martin Hanzal and Shawn Horcoff have done some serious heavy lifting for their teams over the last three years. They've been deployed as defense-first options on their respective clubs. Guys like Eric Staal, Daniel Alfredsson, and especially Martin St. Louis have been deployed in the offensive zone, probably against checking lines like those that are anchored by McClement, Richards, Pahlsson, Hanzal and Horcoff.
A final word about Jay McClement: the centerman is the salt of the earth and he's moving along, completely unrecognized for his work. He's playing the toughest minutes in the toughest conference in the toughest division in the NHL. He's got the most difficult starting positions in his conference. Yet when you account for his starting position, he's nearly breaking even, and when you consider his linemates - Brandon Crombeen and Alexander Steen - he probably deserves the kind of credit that goes with doing better than breaking even. If I had a vote for the Selke, McClement would have been at the top of my ballot each of the last two seasons, narrowly edging out Frans Nielsen this season.
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Good call on McClement and Nielsen. Both terrific players. I saw the Blues live in both their visits to Edmonton last year, and McClement majorly impressed both times. I still wish he had been added to Team Canada at the Worlds as they sure could have used a tough minutes ace or two.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
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McClement is the poor man’s Hanzal.
Hanzal, Staal and Nielsen are going to end up being the three Selke finalists for the next 10 years.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Viva le Frans!
There are some Islanders fans who see Nielsen as “just some 3rd-line center who doesn’t score enough.” I am in the process of having them all shot one-by-one.
Bonus: He doesn’t take penalties and his salary is in pennies.
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he’s making like league min for the next three fucking years or something, isn’t he?
by Passive Voice on Aug 21, 2010 12:13 AM MDT up reply actions
Background question
The link you have for the extra OZ = +0.6 Fenwick mentions that value, but is there a post which breaks down how Vic got to it? I trust Vic but would like to walk through the process of how that 0.6 came out.
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I believe he did it in the comments section at Lowetide.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Sorry for the homer question, but...
…I was surprised to see that Kesler fell off this chart completely. Is he much further down? Any sense of whether it’s the zone starts or the level of competition that places him outside this top group?
Remember this list is three consecutive years of tough comp.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
i know that gabe did a similar thing for just this season earlier this year (google “btn corsi overachievers”), and kesler was like third in the entire league (behind two seemingly random Predators players—if you can get both of them in your first six guesses, i’ll be impressed).
by Passive Voice on Aug 20, 2010 11:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Great insight as always.
for the tough minutes forwards in the league over the last three years
1. Did you use QUALCOMP, CORSI QoC or CORSI Rel QoC?
2. What was the cutoff value?
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I started this last year before Gabe unveiled Corsi QoC and Corsi Rel Qoc, so I’m using Qualcomp. I know it might not be the best method, but since I started this way, I’m sticking with it.
Besides, I don’t want to recalculate everything.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I understand. What was your cutoff value to determine “tough minutes?”
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Wow, I couldn’t remember what I did.
Over the last two years, 32 players have played the toughest minutes for their team while playing a minimum of 65 games each year.
I cheated a bit and used an average when guys just missed the games mark.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Martin Hanzal is unbelievable. I’d like a list of his regular line mates over the last 3 seasons. I bet you the best guy on the list is Radim Vrbata.
Pretty much. He had a bunch of different linemates under Gretzky, but the best he had was 23% of his time with Doan. In his rookie season. At age 20. And facing the toughest corsi QoC among forwards on the Yotes. And still had the third highest corsi among forwards.
Guy’s incredible, and in my book, his coming of age is the biggest reason for the improvements in Phoenix’s possession numbers. Maybe Tippet’s using him better too, though.
2007-2008 – 50% of his time with Daniel Winnik, 50% with Radim Vrbata, 35% with Craig Weller
2008-2009 – 50% was spent with Mikkel Boedker, 35% with Daniel Winnik, 30% with Viktor Tikhonov
2009-2010 – 70% was spent with Radim Vrbata and Petr Prucha
It’s well-known around here, but Hanzal and Stephen Weiss are pretty much my favorite players in the league.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
i’m really, really, really excited to see what Hanzal gets in the coming weeks. I cannot believe he hasn’t been given a lucrative offer sheet by, say, any team not based in Pennsylvania.
by Passive Voice on Aug 21, 2010 12:08 AM MDT up reply actions
It’s mind-blowing. I mean, he may be getting offers and just turning the down and we’ll never know. However, nearly every team in the league should send him a six-year 3.18 million per offer sheet (the compensation is only a second round pick). And any middling team that won’t be lottery bound should take a serious look at something like eight years, four million per for him. Colorado, Los Angeles, Buffalo, Montreal – they should all be knocking down his door.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
You may already know this but according to the CBA:
The number and quality of draft choices due to the Prior Club shall be based on the average annual value of the compensation contained in the Principal Terms of the New Club’s Offer Sheet (determined by dividing such compensation by the lesser of the number of years of the Offer Sheet or five).
So an 8-year $4M per deal would receive compensation like a $6.4M offer sheet: 2 firsts, 1 second, and 1 third, which seems pretty pricey, but may be enought to actually get the player. The six-year deal is also probably worth a first and a third rather than a second for the same reason. That said, if you reduce both deals to a five-year term, your point stands, although I would assume the Coyotes match amu deal that only gets them a first round pick (not that it hurts to try).
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 22, 2010 3:46 AM MDT up reply actions
That’s some valuable knowledge right there. It really explains alot about why offer sheets are rare. Anything shorter than 5 years is likely to get matched, and anything longer is more expensive than it appears.
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by George E. Ays on Aug 23, 2010 7:46 AM MDT up reply actions
and i’m pissed that “Czeching line” hasn’t caught on for Hanzal-Vrbata-Prucha.
by Passive Voice on Aug 21, 2010 12:09 AM MDT up reply actions
We totally call it that in Phoenix.
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Mike Richards
I remember watching the selection special for the Olympic team. They were down to the bottom of the forward roster and Mike Richards was on the list with several other players. Someone (I beleive it was Hitch) came in and said that the coaches overwhelmingly wanted Richards. He talked about how much of a difference maker he is.
he also plays the style of game—physically aggressive for a smaller guy—that gives Old Timey Hockey Guys wood.
by Passive Voice on Aug 21, 2010 12:12 AM MDT up reply actions
derek, since you seem to be open to suggestions lately, could i ask for something similar for defencemen? I know this top-minute-forward thing has been one of your pet projects for awhile, but I’m really fascinated by another Blue (and another Czech) in Roman Polak. he’s been in the league for like two years, and has generally been abused by the coaching staff in that time, yet he’s somehow managed to roughly tread water, as a 22/23-yo defenceman.
Roman Polak. he’s been in the league for like two years, and has generally been abused by the coaching staff in that time,
Yeah, Polak’s caught my eye as well. As for abuse, he had the toughest ZoneStarts of any defender in the league this year by a substantial margin (1. Polak STL 36.1% 2. Jackman STL 38.9%). I assume those two were partners for much/most of the year.
Polak also had v.tough QualComp, negative QualTeam, and wound up an outscorer. Nice combination.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
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Had him in my fantasy pool last year. Got tired of all the minuses, dumped him, then the light went on. Sigh…
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