Replacing Horcoff On The Oilers' Power Play
by Derek Zona on Aug 18, 2010 6:30 AM MDT
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"Possession is nine-tenths of the law."
--English Common Law
The fans have spoken. Shawn Horcoff cannot spend even a second on the power play in 2010-2011 or the Oilers will suffer dire consequences. I'm not sure what those consequences will be, but make no mistake, they will be dire. The power play will flourish under the direction of the nameless, faceless replacement, and it will likely involve Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle and Magnus Paajarvi.
All kidding aside, one of the common conversations amongst Oiler fans this summer has been the removal of Shawn Horcoff from the power play. Sam Gagner and Taylor Hall are consistently mentioned as replacements on the first power play unit, but the fans overlook one major point: power plays are about possession, and a significant part of gaining possession is winning faceoffs.
Using a concept developed by Vic Ferrari of Irreverent Oiler Fans, Gabriel Desjardins of Behind The Net Hockey conducted a study on shot rates immediately after a defensive zone faceoff. What he discovered was pretty amazing:
However, when you lose a faceoff in your own end, opponent shots on goal go up so quickly that it’s as though you gave the other team a 10-15 second power-play. For several seconds, the rate of shots allowed is as high as it is on a 5-on-3. The prospect of this level of defensive disadvantage, particularly late in a one-goal game, must give coaches nightmares.
Though this study and the accompanying graph was derived from the standpoint of the team taking the defensive zone faceoff, it's easy to see the offensive side of the shots rates in that graph. The prevalence of shots immediately after an offensive zone faceoff win is markedly higher. Though this is a study of even strength faceoffs, we can assume (and I'm sure that Gabe will be along to prove it eventually) that the impact is even more pronounced during power play situations. For that reason, it's imperative that any replacement for Shawn Horcoff on the Edmonton power play have the ability to win a faceoff, something that not many Oilers can do.
Over the last two seasons, the Oilers have ranked 24th and 30th in team faceoff percentage, at 47.9% and 46.4%, respectively.
| Year | Team FO % | NHL Rank |
| 2009-10 | 46.4% | 30th |
| 2008-09 | 47.9% | 24th |
Over that same time, the Oilers' significant power play centers have gone 515W - 493L for 51.1% on faceoffs during a power play. The individual percentages are listed below:
| Player | GP | PPFOW | PPFOL | PPFO% |
| Ryan Potulny | 64 | 40 | 31 | 56.3% |
| Shawn Horcoff | 157 | 248 | 197 | 55.7% |
| Dustin Penner | 160 | 87 | 72 | 54.7% |
| Andrew Cogliano | 164 | 38 | 50 | 43.2% |
| Sam Gagner | 144 | 102 | 143 | 41.6% |
Ryan Potulny is long gone and Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner still haven't figured out that whole pesky faceoff thing, even with a man advantage. In the "newcomer" category, Colin Fraser isn't going to see any time on the power play, and Taylor Hall is eighteen and teenagers don't win faceoffs.
So there you have it. The Oilers have one option to replace Horcoff on the power play - Dustin Penner. If Tom Renney looks to the crowd and agrees that Horcoff should not be spared, his only choice can be Penner. The Oilers need the puck to score goals on the power play, and Penner is the only "center" with power play skills that gives the Oilers a consistent chance in the circle.
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He can fogo.
He had a horrible year last year on the PP, so I’m not opposed to cutting his PP time down. I mean put him on for the faceoff and pull him off on the first clear out for one of the other players.
And I don’t think it will be Eberle taking his PP minutes. Eberle is a RH and Horcoff usually plays where his stick is in the middle of the ice. Hall is probably the most likely candidate to absorb most of his minutes.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
2/3 periods have OZ draws on the opposite side of the rink. Is it really that much better to win a faceoff, abandon all responsibilities and let the PP run 4 on 4 for 10s instead of just losing the faceoff and regrouping in your own zone? Seems counter-productive to me.
Fogo seems to only be a reasonable idea if the puck is moving up the ice and the fly change occurs with minimal interference.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 18, 2010 8:59 AM MDT up reply actions
That’s why I said pull him off on the first clear.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Sorry, that was a critical piece to overlook. That does sound like a better idea.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 18, 2010 9:19 AM MDT up reply actions
….and Andrew Cogliano and Sam Gagner still haven’t figured out that whole pesky faceoff thing, even with a man advantage.
Is there a marked advantage for the PP team’s center during a faceoff? Should PP centers be winning more faceoffs compared to even-strength? I guess I just don’t understand why having/not having a PP has anything to do with the two guys in the circle and their propensity to win faceoffs.
If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!
You should win a lot more face-offs on the PP than you do anywhere else. If you pay attention to the face-offs in the NHL, I’d wager over half of them are won not by the centre, but the first player to the loose puck. Having the extra man advantage means alot on the PP.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Having a quick look at some teams:
Seems that Detroit and Vancouver have some systems down to get their PPFO in the 56-62% range, but not so much for the Oil or Falmes.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 18, 2010 9:33 AM MDT up reply actions
I think Detroit and Vancouver just have good centremen in general, and being on the PP helps that. There’s not much difference when you check out the differentials between the Oilers/Flames and Red Wings/Canucks.
You should be winning more face-offs on the PP and all 4 teams did that. The fact that the Wings/Canucks were better at faceoffs in the first place probably translates further into the PP.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Both Henriks going from 47/48 to 56/61 seems like a massive jump to me. It should be reviewed on a wider basis before making any conclusions but Horcoff,Gagner, and the Henriks post similar numbers at EV and diverge quite significantly on the PP.
H Sedin’s last 3 years see the differentials of (ESFO%/PPFO%): 45/54, 48/58, 48/61. Micro sample size and all, but there is a possibility that the extra winger is doing something to help to elevate his FO ability more than is being done in edmonton.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 18, 2010 12:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Given Penner’s role on the PP (screen goalie, get possession down low, rebounds, general net presence) it dovetails well into playing center, and I’ve been pimping that idea since MacTavish’s last year and 10 was getting beaten down taking 50% of the Oilers’s faceoffs.
Both MacTavish and OTC tried it a little, but never stuck with it.
I believe that part of the reason 10 can’t get healthy is being overused, the obvious place to take him away from is the powerplay since that is the one area the team actually has a replacement for him.
10 can’t keep playing 22 minutes a night, its killing him and he isn’t getting any younger.
The replacement may be inferior on the face offs (although Penner is only a slight downgrade), but given 10’s stone stick the last couple of years, the for his as the shooter should be an upgrade and result in more goals.
Hall/Paajarvi – 27 -83 should be PP1.
Yeah, why can’t Penner take the pp faceoffs?
Hall has a great one-timer from the left-side, so perhaps it makes sense to go with Hemsky-Penner-Hall, unless Horcoff shows he’s over his injury issues.
P.S. I doubt the quality of shots after a faceoff loss at even strength is very high, just a weak one from the point most often. Two years running, I’m just not seeing a lot of goals against in that situation. Has anyone studied if goals against are higher in those 10-15 seconds after a defensive zone faceoff loss, as opposed to other moments in a game? That would be useful evidence on this point, one way or another.
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Aug 18, 2010 10:59 AM MDT up reply actions
Gabe looked at this question and found that many more goals are scored after a defensive zone FO loss than at other times in the game.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 18, 2010 1:51 PM MDT up reply actions
EDIT
Should read:
“…stone stick the last couple of years, the replacement for him as the shooter should…”
Those extra 0.01% faceoff wins from Horcoff over Gagner last season were so crucial to the Oilers’ power play success.
“So there you have it.” My God.
These guys only took less than 150 FO’s each on the PP, and Horcoff’s track record on FO’s overall is much better. He’s clearly the more established option. That said, I agree that the team shouldn’t have any concerns going forward with Gagner if they feel like he’ll generate better results in the non-FO aspects of the game. He improved his FO% substantially last year and could do so again as he continues to gain strength and experience. I’m very confident that he’d beat the 41.6% listed in Derek’s chart above, and would probably be able to win more than half his draws.
The suggestion of Penner is alright, but I’d rather see him on the inside wing so that he can quickly get to the net if the Oilers win the draw back to the point.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 18, 2010 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions
There is no question you’ll give up some FO% if you take 10 off of 1PP, but you will gain in shooting ability.
You cannot take 10 off of the PK, he cannot be replaced there, and the Oilers still only have 2 forwards with any kind of PK track record on the roster. (sigh, bye Fernie)
You cannot take 10 away from toughQC center, there is no replacement on the roster for that.
In order to reduce 10’s minutes and try to maximize his health for the length of his contract, you have to take him off 1PP.
Hope his skin can get thicker because without the sugar time his boxcars will look even worse and the Rexall horde will be baying at him not stop.
It’s simple. Gagner needs to step it up on the dot. 41% on the PP is beyond pathetic.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 18, 2010 10:14 PM MDT up reply actions
41% is abominable, but it’s also not at all indicative of Gagner’s FO talent. In 2008-09 he was just over 42% in all situations and yet went 44-82 (34.9%) on the PP, which is so bad it almost seems like a mistake. Last season he went 58-61 on the PP (48.7%) on the PP, and that seems much closer to what we can expect from his next season. If we set the line at 48.7% for him next year on the PP, I’d actually take the over.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 18, 2010 11:11 PM MDT up reply actions
I could guess the drop on PP be partially attributed to facing better FO opposition and the extra winger not aiding enough (which would have mostly been cogs/nilsson in 08/09 wouldn’t it).
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 20, 2010 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions
True about Gagner.
I don’t have him and Hemsky together on the PP though, they both like to QB and he is the best option to be PPQB2.
If you have Hesmky and Gagner on PP1 with Penner, you lack the strong LH shot that Hemsky needs (89 may improve his shot as well, but its not there now), and you also lack the PPQB2 that you need.
It may convince Hemsky to shoot more though.
Work the down low give and go with Gagner, which should open the shooting lane for Hemsky a bit.
Combine that with Penner hunting for loose rubber and I think it can work good. Maybe not as a full time PP1, but as maybe a co-PP1 (where Gagner or Penner rotate off for someone else).
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Penner-Gagner-Hemsky was the first unit down the stretch in 2007-08, after Horcoff was hurt. That powerplay unit was real solid, even without real effective point men. For some reason, MacT never went back to it, preferring to “punish” Penner than run an effective powerplay.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 19, 2010 2:07 PM MDT up reply actions
The Penner-Gagner-Hemsky PP was very effective, because with Gagner down low on the left, Hemsky on the half wall and Penner in front, it allowed Hemmer and Gagner to play catch and rotate around, opening up seams to either hit penner at the right post for a tap in, or to hit the weak side d-man for a big one-timer, with Penner in front causing a ruckus.
Yup. And that was without Souray playing the weak side point. The big boomer was Stoll who had to line up on the left point, not exactly ideal.
Unfortunately with Foster being a righty the PP will have some of the same issues. It’ll be interesting to see what Whitney can do from there, esp. if they do team up 83-89. Penner in the low slot is a no-brainer.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 19, 2010 9:32 PM MDT up reply actions
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