The Oilers Line Combinations - What To Do With The Rookies
by bhommy on Aug 17, 2010 5:45 AM MDT
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Print(Editor's Note: Commenter bhommy thinks it's never too early to start projecting line combinations and The Copper & Blue agrees. We've talked extensively about the lack of tough-minutes forwards on this year's roster and building lines with a bunch of rookies is difficult for any coach, even a tactician like Tom Renney. A big thanks to bhommy for raising the topic.)
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Here in Oil Country, everyone is getting all jacked up on the idea of our super-rookies. It is proven fact that Hall, Paajarvi and Eberle will all soon become perrenial first team all-stars for the next 20 years. Throw in Linus Omark and the future sure does look bright. But the question still remains; what do we do with them this year?
With the four aforementioned players (Taylor Hall, Margnus Paajarvi-Svensson, Jordan Eberle and Omark), there is really only one certainty: Hall will be an Edmonton Oiler in 2010-11. But even with that certainty, question marks are still abound with regards to Hall. Will he be given an opportunity to be the 1LW, will he play on a tough minutes line, will he get PP time? And to think, this is the guy with the most certainty surrounding him.
I believe that Hall will (should?) play on a soft minutes line as the 2LW behind Dustin Penner. I would operate with a power-vs-power line as the first unit (likely Penner-Shawn Horcoff- Ales Hemsky, possibly Sam Gagner if he proves up to the challenge) as we just do not have the personnel to create a dedicated checking line. Now when it comes to this second, soft minutes line with Hall that I described earlier, it begins to get a little shady. If Gagner is able to step up to the plate and be the outscoring 1C playing against tough competition, then the second line would have the advantage of having a reliable vet in Horcoff centering it.
If this is the case, I see no reason why the 2RW could not be one of either Eberle, Omark or Paajarvi. Horcoff, despite all of his deficiencies and his grossly inflated salary, is still an effective player that would be wonderful to have mentoring two kids on his wings. I believe strongly that he is capable of doing this, and if Eberle/Omark/Paajarvi show that they're capable of succeeding in the NHL, then I'd gladly have two rookies on a soft minutes line. Of course if Gagner doesn't show the ability to be an outscorer against top opposition, then he would move back into the 2C slot, and I would put Brule on the right side.
As for the third line, I mentioned before that we don't have the personnel to have a checking line. So my third line would have Andrew Cogliano, Gilbert Brule and Ryan Jones on it if Gagner takes the 1C spot. If not, the 3 line is likely Jones, Cogliano and Colin Fraser. Leaving the fourth line as Jean-Francois Jacques - Fraser - Zack Stortini, or Jacques, Stortini and whoever impresses in camp in that role. Possibly Ryan O'Marra, Chris Vande Velde or Alexandre Giroux.
I would assume many people think that I'm crazy by only allowing for a maximum of two rookies, when many are penciling in three easily, and occasionally a fourth. But I see no problem with allowing two or three of Eberle, Paajarvi and Omark to develop in OKC for at least part of the season. If they're completely blowing the doors off, you make room for them, but if they're just being successful, let them be successful, there's nothing wrong with allowing a prospect to gain confidence and experience playing against men/in NA in the AHL. Also, injuries are going to happen. Likely in the top 6 as well. When those injuries do happen, the kids will get their shots. I hope they succeed.
What I'm really trying to say I guess, is that no matter how excited I am to see all of these players in Oil silks as soon as possible, I'm far more excited by the idea of the Oilers winning a cup with these guys, and I believe that allowing them to develop at their own pace is the best way to try and achieve that goal. So stay patient with me Oil Country, it'll all be worth it in the end.
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Good post Bhommy. Personally, I hope they have Hall in the lineup on opening night, but send him back to junior after nine games. Maybe they can sell it as him learning to play center. For me, though, the big thing is not burning a very valuable year of his ELC when the team is likely going to be bad. For the same reason, I’d be keeping Paajarvi in the AHL or SEL for the whole season. I would, however, like to see what Eberle and Omark can do at the NHL level. Omark might need to start in the AHL (while Hall plays his nine games), but Eberle should probably be able to make the team.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 16, 2010 10:41 AM MDT reply actions
I just think it’s too difficult to justify sending Hall back to junior, ESPECIALLY since he is now ineligible for the WJC. However the idea of maintaining a year on Paajarvi’s ELC I agree with completely. They should make an effort to add a year to at least one of them, as it could potentially be hellish re-signing all three in one summer.
I can’t imagine Hockey Canada not making an exception if Hall was available for the World Juniors, so I don’t think that’s much of a concern. I also don’t think it’s hard to justify sending him back. It makes better sense for the hockey club to do so because it means they’ll have a better player for those entry-level years. That’s a pretty decent justification. The best argument for keeping him in the NHL, to me, is just keeping him happy, rather than anything to do with his development. If the Oilers wait a year on him, that decision will cost Hall millions of dollars, something that could definitely hurt the long-term relationship, especially if he feels like he deserved to stay on merit but was held out of the league for cap purposes.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 16, 2010 5:41 PM MDT up reply actions
I know that if I were Taylor Hall, I’d be pretty choked if the Oilers sent me back to junior while JF Jacques took a regular shift in the NHL.
by despisethesun on Aug 17, 2010 10:37 AM MDT up reply actions
It’s not that he’s inelegible… he just might not be allowed by Hockey Canada.
They have a policy in place that says if you choose to not attend the summer evaluation camp, you can’t be on the WJC team. It’s to prevent the better players from just skipping it and it makes sense.
As for them making an exception with Hall… that’s a dangerous game. Once you make that exception others will try.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Good ideas
Looking forward to see how all these guys do this year, no matter where they play.
I think if the Oilers are going to have success, whoever is running the forwards is going to have to micro-manage the shit out of them.
Hemsky and Horcoff have always been a good PVP pair with a decent LW. I’d add Hall to that line for offensive/neutral zone draws, and use a 2nd centre (most likely fraser) on the d-zone ones. You can always change it if you see the kid way over his head in the first 15-20 games, but I think it’s a good primer for the kid. He’ll have to learn the NHL game right off the hop, but he’s playing with guys who can do it.
Penner and Gagner form the basis of the 2nd line. I’d probably try Eberle with these guys (again for offensive and defensive zone draws), and the Oilers need another vet C to handle d-zone draws with this line.
My 3rd line is Brule-Vet C- MPS, with Brule, MPS and Cogliano alternating on the line depending on who is the most effective at the time. If we don’t sign a Vet C, I give either Brule or Cogs a chance at centre.
4th line is Jones/Stortini-Fraser-Cogliano, (again with Brule, MPS and Cogliano rotating around depending on who is making the 3rd line click). If no addtional Vet C is added, then Cogliano goes up and Jones and Stortini are 4th line wingers.
Omark is the wild card here. He could supplant either Eberle or MPS (my bet would be MPS because Eberle has already made a pretty good transition to the AHL so he might be the most NHL ready of the group).
If he supplants Eberle, MPS moves to the 2nd line and Omark onto the 3rd line with Cogs and Brule.
That gives the Oilers 2 lines they can put out against tough opps (especially with 2C’s in the d-zone), a line that should be able to put up good numbers against the soft opp, and a 4th line that is going to keep it’s head above water.
Playoffs are all dependant on how quick the kids can tread water.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
I read (I think on LT) that Renney doesn’t really stick to lines. So your scenario of rotating players based on zone sounds the most likely outcome to me.
Thank said, I think the order of immediate readiness is MS > Eberle > Hall. Which is backwards to the hype. Eberle seemed ready last year, so it is going to be damn hard to keep him off the roster if he has as good of a camp as he did last year. Hall is guaranteed a spot and probably 1PP.
I think the key is MS. If he doesn’t have to be sheltered then it means Hall can be and Eberle still given some chance to succeed on the gagpen line. If he can’t handle 1LW then I think he will get a stint in the A until less sheltering (of the 3) is required.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 17, 2010 10:15 AM MDT up reply actions
“I think if the Oilers are going to have success, whoever is running the forwards is going to have to micro-manage the shit out of them.”
True, although that does presume that the goal of the Oilers is to have success this year, which I think is far from a certainty. Looking at the gaping wholes on the roster, putting the team in position for another lottery pick might well be the strategy being pursued.
I think success also means getting the young players minutes without getting them killed… in which case they still need to micromanage the shit out of them.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
Better Renney than Quinn.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 17, 2010 12:22 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m not sure it’s a problem to have so many interchangeable pieces. I’m sure there are going to be some combinations we haven’t thought of yet.
If Gagner shows he can be the man as the #1 guy you could see Horcoff on the “3rd line checking unit”. The only other real option for that 3rd line is Fraser and he quite proven he’s capable of that role just yet.
So I think we could see something like this….
Hall-Gagner-Hemsky
Penner-Brule-Eberle
Jones-Horcoff-MPS
JFJ-Fraser-Stortini
I know Cogliano is omitted and so is Omark. If Omark shows he can play well positionally maybe it pushes Jones to the 4th and moves MPS over to the left side.
Cogs is the biggest question mark of the year. If given linemates and facing 3rd pairing D he could really jump his boxcars again. Alternatively, he could sit as there just isn’t room.
Most likely he is traded, but I wish they could trade high for once. What is out there for Brule? He has a higher ceiling and still looks destined for bottom 6 on this squad with a frame that doesn’t fit the role. If trading Cogs then least give him some primo playing time and let him showoff his potential.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 17, 2010 10:20 AM MDT up reply actions
I don’t see any way you can put Horcoff on a soft minute line, even if he’s mentoring two kids and Gagner shows he’s up to centre a PVP line. You can’t give all the tough minutes to your one PVP line, and if Horcoff’s line’s not picking any up, who is? Fraser looks promising, but we have to remember that he hasn’t yet proven himself as an NHL regular (on a team that was stacked at centre, granted), and I don’t think there’s any evidence that Cogliano or Brule could centre a tough minutes line.
I mean, any line combinations you come up with are going to show gaping holes somewhere, because that’s kind of the nature of our forward squad. But giving Horcoff easy minutes seems to be exacerbating things.
by sarcasticidealist on Aug 17, 2010 11:05 AM MDT reply actions
Paajarvi/Omark—Horcoff—Hemsky
Penner—Cogliano/Fraser—Brule
Hall—Gagner—Eberle
Jones/Reddox—Fraser/Cogliano—Stortini
Hall is 18 and needs to be protected. Penner can be his own line. So force the opposing team to play their best lines against Hemsky’s line, and Penner’s line, leaving easy minutes for Hall’s line.
We don’t have the checking wingers for Horcoff for a dedicated checking line, so forget about it. Build one line around Hemsky, another around Penner, and the third around Hall.
Hence the aforementioned set of lines.
I’d much rather have at least one veteran with Hall if the goal is to have him protected. Asking Gagner to carry two rookies is a bit much, even if they’re mostly playing the dregs. And you can bet on some real tough shifts because opposing coaches would have that line targeted for destruction, especially on the road.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 17, 2010 12:53 PM MDT up reply actions
I still hold that Tambellini will find a decent winger in the leftovers bin, maybe Nigel Dawes? What about a decent center in that bin as well?
Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
Jones – Lang – Brule
Hall – Gagner – Dawes
Eberle – Fraser – Stortini
Too much to ask?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve given some thought to Lang myself, and don’t think he fits the bill. The main reason is that he is primarily an offensive player on a team that is full of them – albeit largely unproven ones. While he is decent on the dot, he doesn’t kill penalties and hasn’t been very durable in the past few seasons, either. On top of all this, the last time I saw him play regularly was for Detroit (my dad’s team) a few years back, and he just didn’t seem to be involved much. If he was a perimeter player without grit or defensive acumen three years ago, what use would he have to the Oil now?
As there’s no chance to get a young, premiere offensive centre right now, my vote would be to hold out for a veteran with solid defensive abilities, ideally in the mold of Mike Peca. Taking offensive opportunities away from the youngsters to prolong the career of a soon-to-be 40 year old one dimensional Lang just doesn’t make much sense.
So you’re a big fan of the offer sheet for Martin Hanzal too?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The Hanzal offer sheet is a fantastic idea. However I really love the idea of a dual offer sheet. I forget who the other player on Phoenix is that should be part of it, but there was a great article on the idea of a dual offer sheet (I believe it was here, actually). In any case, Hanzal is the EXACT player we need, that tough minutes outscoring guy to centre our third line. And of course, he’s still young enough to fit in with the core of our team moving forward. He fits so perfectly it seems sinful for the Coyotes to not just hand him over.
I would get behind that as long as the offer didn’t cause the compensation to include a 1st round pick. (I live in Toronto and don’t want to loose my ability to mock the Kessel deal.)
There are two issues that I see with a dual offer of Wolski and Hanzal, though: 1) I’m not sure that $3.1M pries Hanzal away from the Yotes – even with their financial issues, and 2) Wolski doesn’t fit into the Oil’s long term needs. If it was possible to sign Hanzal at $3.1M and only relinquish our second round pick for him I’d do it in a heartbeat.
Even though we didn’t have a player who was in any was similar to Wolski to offer up for him, I also lament missing out on the chance to get Mueller from the Yotes. He may end up being a dud, but I doubt it, and it was a good chance to “buy low”.
I completely agree about the compensation. The Oilers can’t afford to give up their first round pick.
I thought Mueller presented a good chance to buy low too, but Wolski is a really good young player, so Mueller’s value seems to have been pretty high when he got traded.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 17, 2010 7:29 PM MDT up reply actions
There are two issues that I see with a dual offer of Wolski and Hanzal, though: 1) I’m not sure that $3.1M pries Hanzal away from the Yotes – even with their financial issues
Ain’t no harm in trying.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
So Hall needs to be protected, but your willing to throw equally untested MPS or Omark on the H-H line?
by VanillaAcid on Aug 18, 2010 12:39 AM MDT up reply actions
Yes, because even Hall will get buried against toughs.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Although that may end up being true (Horc and Hemmer are pretty good players, and may be able to carry a rook), I doubt that he’d do better playing consistently with Gagner and Eberle against middling comp. That line is kind of asking to get beat up.
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 18, 2010 10:09 AM MDT up reply actions
Well, just to get it out of the way early, I’ll say that there is absolutely zero reason for Shawn Horcoff to have anything to do with the Oilers power play this season. I still remember Penner-Gagner-Hemsky lighting it up a couple of seasons ago, or you could just put Hall out there as a centre and stick him in Horcoff’s usual spot beside the net (the one where he whiffs on a cross ice pass once a game).
Obviously though (at least I would hope), the team will be using training camp and pre-season to see how effective Hall can be at centre. If he succeeds it will solidify could solidify a weak position and open another spot on the wings for more talent, as well as put Horcoff where he belongs: on the third line. If it doesn’t work, Hall stays on the left side and leaves one spot open for one of Eberle and Paajarvi to fight for, or Omark if he can play the right side as well. At this point I’d rather have whoever doesn’t earn a spot in the top six in Edmonton playing in the AHL, although I’ll say that in limited viewing Omark seems to have a dimension to his game that could work on a third line (especially compared to what Edmonton has to work with in the bottom six), assuming his game works at all in the NHL.
After that, well, Pesci knows they have enough bottom six level players. Or at least.. players who aren’t good enough to be in the top six. They’ll have to sort themselves out in camp.
So either..
Penner – Horcoff/Gagner – Hemsky
Hall – Horcoff/Gagner – Eberle/Paajarvi/Omark
or
Penner – Hall/Gagner – Hemsky
Paajarvi/Omark – Hall/Gagner – Eberle
And just for kicks on the latter.. a third line of Paajarvi/Omark-Horcoff-Brule might not be bad, but I think both candidates for the left side would be better served getting top minutes in the AHL.
as well as put Horcoff where he belongs: on the third line
If Horcoff isn’t leading this team in minutes by the end of the year (providing he stays healthy), the coaching staff is full of morons.
Even Quinn got that right last year.
In theory, there is little difference between practice and theory, but in practice there is!
My (un)educated guestimate
Penner – Horcoff – Hemsky
Hall – Gagner – Brule
Jones – Cogliano – Omark
CVV – Fraser – Stortini
Any thoughts?
I like those actually, although I kinda doubt Vande Velde makes the team as a winger. I figure his shot would be if Cogliano is playing wing and Fraser is playing centre on the third. If that was the case I could certainly see him winning that 4C spot, however I just don’t see the coaching staff playing him on the LW, what with JFJ and MacIntyre both on one-ways, and almost locks to be on the roster come October (not that they deserve to be necessarily).
Time for Gagner to Step Up
Excellent article Bhommy! I agree with your theory regarding the first 2 lines. If Gagner is ready to step up to the next level that could free up room to put 2 rookies with Horcoff. I believe the time has come for Gagner to step up, as with all the young talent coming in he is going to have to show something soon.
The important thing in all of this is to ensure that one of the top prospects doesn`t get placed in a position of getting 3rd or 4th line ice time. That could seriously impact their development and confidence and they would be better off in OKC with top line time!
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