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Around SBN: Which Players Will Join The 3,000-Hit Club?

The Free Agent (That Isn't Fernando Pisani) the Oilers Should Sign

So, let's pretend that you were a fan of the Edmonton Oilers. And let's also pretend that, for some mad reason, you wanted the Edmonton Oilers to make the playoffs in the 2010-11 season. I know, I'm asking the improbable, but bear with me; it'll be worth it.

Unfortunately, I also have to introduce another hypothetical. Hypothetically, let's pretend that Steve Tambellini fell down a dumbwaiter and was replaced by a general manager who would be willing to get rid of players Tambellini brought in and sign players Tambellini didn't care for. We are, in short, living in the lands of fantasy and mythology. But it's the middle of August and I'm writing an article on a deadline and I'm not very intelligent at the best of times.

So, which free agent would I take a spin at? Which obtainable free agent available this late in the free agency season might actually be willing to sign with this mediocre-at-best hockey team, and is in the right stage of his career to help us compete later as well as now?

We're not delving too deep into the waters of fantasy, of course. The Oilers have their actual cap restrictions, their actual salaries to deal with. Fortunately - and I was so stunned when I saw this that I hardly dared believe it - CapGeek tells us that the Oilers have $11 million in cap space not counting bonuses. For crying out loud, we could sign Ilya Kovalchuk if we just circumvented the cap a little bit (and if he wanted to play for a team that belongs in the draft lottery). And guess what! This guy isn't even Fernando Pisani, since you've seen that play before?

But Fernando aside, who would I sign?

Star-divide

Since you're probably capable of looking in the upper-left hand corner of this article, you know exactly where I'm going with this. But let me explain my rationale. Unlike the likes of Doug Weight or Paul Kariya, my player is on the upslope of his career rather than thundering down. He's coming off the worst season of his career, which means that he's not exactly going to be expecting a big payday, and he has a history of skilled performance behind him. He's played in the Northwest Division so we know he can handle it, and he's a damned sight better than Robert Nilsson ever was.

My dream Oiler free agent is an undersized winger who can't play defense and had as many points last season as Patrick O'Sullivan had goals. Yes, it's Marek Svatos, probably the worst value for money since the Maginot Line. Having raked in a titch over two million dollars last year with the Colorado Avalanche, Svatos rewarded Colorado to the tune of seven goals and four assists. He also went -13 and got in only fifty-four games. It was terrific! I didn't go over to Mile High Hockey and ask them about this because, well, I'm writing this at one in the morning, but I'm going to go ahead and say that Avalanche fans weren't terribly impressed by Marek Svatos last season.

Further, Svatos's two best seasons have been inflated by somewhat unreasonable shooting percentages. Firing 19.4% in 2005-06 and 18.6% in 2007-08 isn't the sort of pace you can expect any shooter of Svatos's calibre to keep up. So yes, I am trying to take a guy who had a rotten season while acknowledging that he's unlikely to repeat his best two seasons!

But even his average seasons are pretty good. In 2006-07, for example, Svatos shot only 8.4% and played 12:30 a night. He also got fifteen goals and fifteen assists and went +1 on a team that was pretty good but still featured fellow late-liners Andrew Brunette and Tyler Arnason going -8. That 8.4% was Svatos's worst shooting season until last year, so you know that Svatos isn't a bad shooter. In 2008-09 the Avalanche went 32-45-5, but Svatos still bagged 34 points and a -6 that was second-best among Colorado's regular forwards. The kid can play, and he can play on bad teams, which is a useful skill to have on the Edmonton Oilers.

Besides not being a sieve at even strength, Svatos is also a fine second-unit power play performer. Of Svatos's 96 career goals, 33 of them have come on the man advantage. That's a higher percentage than Ales Hemsky's and up there with Dustin Penner's: the Oilers are not exactly replete with scoring on the man advantage. People who count on unblooded youngsters like Linus Omark, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson, and Jordan Eberle to make up the difference are more optimistic than I.

So if you could do Svatos for six digits and two years (and the guy had eleven points last year so I bet you could), toss him on the third or fourth line, let him more-or-less outscore and then run him on the second powerplay right wing, that would improve the Oilers drastically and you'd have to pay the guy the change you have in your pocket. There are better players out there, but not many (damn you, Alex Tanguay!) and they wouldn't be cheaper. Or that much better.

There's Fernando Pisani, of course. But... damn.

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Not Svatos man. We have many players who can put up 35 points and not help defensively. Unless you want him on a one year contract and then trade him hoping that he has a good offensive season.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Aug 14, 2010 8:00 AM MDT reply actions  

We have many players who can put up 35 points

They’re just not drafted 1st overall yet.

by Tommelot on Aug 16, 2010 2:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

I really don’t get how, in identifying one free agent the Oilers should sign, you zero in on a guy who’s not
i. a right-handed centre who can win faceoffs and kill penalties,
ii. a winger who can face the toughs at even strength, and kill penalties, or
iii. a veteran stay-at-home defenseman. Who can kill penalties.

Are there just none of those guys left (other than Pisani) who would ever consider signing with the Oilers? Because I like Svatos as a good candidate for a value contract, but I’m not sure I see the need he addresses.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 14, 2010 9:19 AM MDT reply actions  

I agree with Ben , I think he would be a good pickup. Hed be a good 3rd liner, and he helps keep a kid in OKC where he can develop a little better. Sure we have players like him, sure we have other needs, but hes value and hes skill and id rather have him than half the players we do have.

by VanillaAcid on Aug 14, 2010 9:39 AM MDT reply actions  

But this post isn’t comparing him to the players we do have, but to the players we could have. Why Svatos over (to take some examples at random) Jeff Halpern, Paul Mara, or Jason Williams, or even Mike Comrie, for that matter? There might be a good reason – I’ll acknowledge at the outset that Ben’s much more knowledgeable than I am – but I don’t think this post makes that case.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 14, 2010 10:08 AM MDT up reply actions  

I thought about Mike Comrie, but, well, that would have been a boring pick for the same reason as Pisani.

My thoughts regarding the Oilers ran as follows.

1) While we do need a right-handed centre who can face toughs at even strength, there’s really not that many outh there. Halpern is as close as you can get but he’s bloody overrated and way on the wrong side of 30. Halpern’s +/- last year on the lightning was so bad it was rivalled only by Vincent Lecavalier (who played more games with far more ice time against tougher opposition) and Paul Szczechura, and he pulled much the same trick the year before. Remember that we’re trying to get a player who’ll be good value for the Oilers in 2011-12 and 2012-13 here as well.

2) Jason Williams, I fully confess, would be an excellent signing. Honestly, the only reason I didn’t pick him was that I ruled out Fernando Pisani because he was a boring choice and felt weird going for someone who is the same player as Fernando Pisani but not quite as good instead. He also somehow managed to be bad on last year’s Detroit Red Wings, which was hard to do, but I think that’s a hiccough for the same reason I think Svatos’s bad year was.

3) I didn’t see any defensemen out there who were decent, young, and an upgrade on what we had.

4) We have eight hundred goaltenders already.

5) Ultimately, the Oilers need even strength warriors. Svatos fits the bill. He’s played those third- and second-line minutes most of his career and usually outscores even when paired with surprisingly mediocre linemates. His powerplay skill is a pleasant treat but not the main reason to sign him. The vast majority of a game is played at even strength, and a guy who can contribute there is far more important than a guy who can kill penalties.

by Benjamin Massey on Aug 14, 2010 11:11 AM MDT up reply actions  

[Svatos] usually outscores even when paired with surprisingly mediocre linemates

Have you seen him play last season? I would agree with you, if we’d just look at his first two seasons. But the person you are describing is more like T.J. Galiardi.

by Tommelot on Aug 16, 2010 2:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

Hed be a good 3rd liner

He really doesn’t work on a third line. He would only fit on a line with a great center and a team that is lacking wingers. So, potentially, he should’ve been a great fit for the Avs. But he was a joke.

by Tommelot on Aug 16, 2010 2:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

Not a bad suggestion..

But I just can’t see another Small fwd in our lineup…

Adam Mair might be a good fit though. He’s a RH Center that can also play wing, Has decent size(6’1/208) and is good on the dot(52.2% last year), and at 31 should still have at least a few years left in him.

Oh yeah, he made $775,000 last year and so would come cheap as well.

by gr80ne on Aug 14, 2010 12:44 PM MDT reply actions  

I have a soft spot for Svatos and would really like to see him catch another opportunity in the NHL. That being said, his strength is as a triggerman / sniper on the top 2 lines. If you’re looking to pick him up for the 3rd line, his defensive deficiencies (which are more lack of prowess/size than lack of effort) will show through quickly and the Oil will see similar production from him as the Avs saw last year. A shame, really.

Colorado Avalanche Offseason Strategy - Please wake us in October

by Hopfenkopf on Aug 14, 2010 10:02 PM MDT reply actions  

On the other hand, the Oilers have absolutely no defensive forwards. They’re essentially going to have to run their third line as a scoring line, and Svatos can outscore in that situation.

by Benjamin Massey on Aug 16, 2010 10:42 AM MDT up reply actions  

If the Svats Machine doesn’t have somebody feeding him the rock, he’s effin’ useless. He took more shifts off in his own end than Peter Forsberg has ankle injuries. I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but the general feeling over in my ‘hood is that 96.8% of Avalanche fans don’t miss him.

He is what his numbers suggest, a finisher. But he is physically overpowered far more often than his is the victor in battles along the boards, he doesn’t create his own shot or work to open up teammates, he doesn’t take/win/watch faceoffs, he was a giant running joke last season since he was a more effective enforcer than Koci (which is saying something. Not something good, but something.) and Sacco only used him when he had season-ending injuries to Jones and Mueller or it was Wolski’s weekly trip to the doghouse. If he isn’t getting Top 6 minutes on a line with a mildly-above-average replacement level center, he’s a waste of a lower 6 spot. I may be biased due to the amount of $$ he was paid in Colorado to be a waste of a bottom 6 spot, but that’s my opinion and I’m sticking to it.

In other words, you guys need to sign him NOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW!!!

If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 16, 2010 1:41 PM MDT reply actions  

He was a part of my favorite fight last season though.

Intelligent opinion does not follow the transitive property
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time

by Jibblescribbits on Aug 16, 2010 1:49 PM MDT up reply actions  

hahaha

That was awesome.

Sandie

"We called him Clark Kent because away from the rink, he was just a nerd. Then he'd go into the Colorado dressing room and put on his Avs jersey, and all of a sudden he was Super Joe"- Theo Fleury

by Sandie Gauthier on Aug 16, 2010 3:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

I will miss his potential, but I won’t miss seeing him on the ice. He’s a great player to have in a computer game, because lacklustre doesn’t add in the equation, but seeing him on the ice generally made me feel like we were on a PK.

by Tommelot on Aug 16, 2010 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

Couldn’t agree more.
Svatos’ best year was when old man Turgeon just shoved the puck at him, and Svatos did the rest. He sinks or swims depending on that center. But not many teams are deep enough to allow him to run around helter skelter on the top 2 lines. When Svatos isn’t going at his crystal meth induced top speed of infinity, he’s not only bad, but horrendous to watch.

His madman goal against SJ in the playoffs was the kind of plays I’ll miss. Where did that come from, and where did it go??

by Brett Shumway on Aug 16, 2010 2:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

Holy shit did Murray play that horrendously…

If we don't get our sauce, we ain't watching the game!

by Mike @ MHH on Aug 16, 2010 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

The problem with Svatos

As an Avs fan, I can tell you exactly the problem with Svatos. First, injuries have been a big problem. Second, the place where he does the best is between the dots, right in front of the goalie, it’s this small area where he is unstoppable. Problem with that: Everyone knows about it. If he can learn to score in other areas of the ice, he’d be golden.

by mestndahead on Aug 16, 2010 9:51 PM MDT reply actions  

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