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Jason Strudwick's On-Ice Impact On His Teammates

Illustration by Gustave Doré. via upload.wikimedia.org

 

Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.

--Samuel Taylor Coleridge:  "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner", Part The Second

The Copper & Blue has done some writing about Jason Strudwick in the very recent past.  You might remember Jason Strudwick from such titles as "Strudwick Struggles To Shoot The Puck" and "Jason Strudwick, The Least-Shootinest Gun In the West. And NHL. Since 1998." He won the inaugural Golden Rooster award, sharing a piece of the title with Jeff Deslauriers, and only because Deslauriers made a late backside-shoving run at the title who, despite his best effort, couldn't wrest it from Strudwick's death grip.

He also starred in the epic saga, "The Shift", which shouldn't need further description, but here's a hint: it was the longest shift in modern NHL history, a shift in which Strudwick posted a -11 Corsi rating.  That's right, a -11 Corsi in a single shift.  The only Canadians that have seen action during worse shelling took Juno Beach in 1944.  

Star-divide

WOWY Analysis (With Or Without You, an obvious homage to U2, because it should be "With And Without You", but I digress) is not new.  The concept is simple:  compare player performance with and without certain teammates while on the ice.  Some excellent work in this vein includes Tyler's Ovechkin WOWYLighthouse Hockey's WOWY on the new Jere Lehtinen, future Selke winner Frans Nielsen, and Scott's Hemsky WOWY.

The Strudwick WOWY is simple, using Vic Ferrari's excellent scripts I ran the 2009-2010 shots data for each Oilers forward with and without Strudwick.  The results are in the table below:

Player Goals Saved Shots Shots% Missed Shots Fenwick% EDM Shots that were Blocked Corsi% EVsv% EVsh%
w/ Horcoff 6 10 76 119 0.389 30 50 0.385 45 70 0.387 0.922 7.30%
Horcoff Apart 24 43 364 381 0.478 162 230 0.457 190 190 0.467 0.899 6.20%
                           
w/ Nilsson 6 9 73 100 0.42 26 50 0.398 31 46 0.399 0.917 7.60%
Nilsson Apart 18 29 256 238 0.506 114 121 0.5 111 129 0.491 0.891 6.60%














w/ Cogliano 12 12 131 181 0.426 43 66 0.418 56 93 0.407 0.938 8.40%
Coligano Apart 31 33 317 355 0.473 137 163 0.468 176 164 0.48 0.915 8.90%














w/ Potulny 5 14 98 122 0.431 26 65 0.391 26 64 0.369 0.897 4.90%
Potulny Apart 18 29 243 248 0.485 103 100 0.491 123 153 0.479 0.895 6.90%














W/ Moreau 8 8 97 148 0.402 29 56 0.387 38 76 0.374 0.949 7.60%
Moreau Apart 15 30 266 363 0.417 106 159 0.412 148 179 0.423 0.924 5.30%














w/ O'Sullivan 7 10 89 112 0.44 43 62 0.43 34 61 0.414 0.918 7.30%
O'Sullivan 21 46 326 385 0.446 143 156 0.455 139 196 0.445 0.893 6.10%














W/ Jacques 2 8 32 48 0.378 19 25 0.396 19 39 0.375 0.857 5.90%
Jacques Apart 16 21 138 205 0.405 73 96 0.413 78 111 0.413 0.907 10.40%














w/ Penner 12 17 100 124 0.443 47 66 0.434 44 68 0.425 0.879 10.70%
Penner Apart 44 31 411 355 0.541 182 176 0.531 193 197 0.522 0.92 9.70%














w/ Stone 3 3 13 15 0.471 7 5 0.5 13 9 0.529 0.833 18.80%
Stone Apart 13 11 105 93 0.532 57 49 0.534 54 51 0.529 0.894 11.00%














w/ Pisani 7 7 39 86 0.331 13 33 0.319 19 42 0.317 0.925 15.20%
Pisani Apart 6 19 144 160 0.456 60 100 0.429 82 89 0.442 0.894 4.00%














w/ Stortini 6 7 71 117 0.383 31 55 0.376 32 62 0.367 0.944 7.80%
Stortini Apart 21 16 182 238 0.444 80 91 0.451 89 127 0.441 0.937 10.30%














w/ Brule 8 15 87 101 0.45 35 50 0.439 33 51 0.429 0.871 8.40%
Brule Apart 30 28 263 265 0.5 106 137 0.481 120 132 0.48 0.904 10.20%














w/ Pouliot 7 4 57 81 0.43 20 39 0.404 16 39 0.38 0.953 10.90%
Pouliot Apart 8 11 114 124 0.475 47 57 0.468 48 60 0.463 0.919 6.60%














w/ Hemsky 1 3 15 29 0.333 10 14 0.361 17 19 0.398 0.906 6.30%
Hemsky Apart 15 5 112 105 0.536 42 35 0.538 56 53 0.532 0.955 11.80%














w/ Gagner 12 11 88 90 0.498 39 59 0.465 36 53 0.451 0.891 12.00%
Gagner Apart 24 29 341 313 0.516 139 145 0.509 151 179 0.496 0.915 6.60%














w/ Comrie 7 5 59 64 0.489 21 38 0.448 20 36 0.428 0.928 10.60%
Comrie Apart 10 15 153 153 0.492 57 69 0.481 64 99 0.458 0.911 6.10%

 

Every regular forward employed by the Edmonton Oilers was worse with Strudwick.  Significantly worse.  Every. Single. Forward.  Strudwick's on-ice presence even made J.F. Jacques worse, a remarkable feat considering Jacques' effect on the rest of the roster.  Strudwick's presence was especially difficult on Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Ryan Potulny, and Shawn Horcoff as their shots numbers plummeted with Strudwick.  He even managed to drag Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky down with him.

Ah! well a-day! what evil looks
Had I from old and young!
Instead of the cross, the Albatross
About my neck was hung.

--Samuel Taylor Coleridge:  "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner", Part The Second

And despite all of this, Steve Tambellini locked up Strudwick for yet another year, not only handing him a one-way contract, but a $25,000 raise to boot.  Tambellini, Renney, Strudwick and Oiler fans should begin trotting out the lucky charms now, because if Strudwick plays another seventy games this season, it's going to be a tough year.  It means that Tambellini didn't find a better option for the seventh defenseman, it means that Renney was stuck with a rookie and Strudwick in the top seven, it means that Strudwick has a very good chance to retire as the worst regular defenseman since expansion and it means that Oiler fans will have to endure another long season of basement-level play.

The people in his corner point to his presence not on the ice, but in the room, as the reason that he was a necessary signing.  He's a great locker room guy, a great practice guy, he sticks up for his teammates and will do whatever his coach asks of him, including play forward.  Any cohesive team certainly needs those guys around, but not at this price.  Lowetide thinks (hopes?) that Strudwick is going to retire at the end of training camp.  I do hope that this is the case, as it would be a merciful end for all parties involved.  Allow him to retire rather than suffer the indignity of another season, offer him an assistant or associate job and allow him to have an impact on the team from the office, rather than on the ice.

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I definitely don’t think Strudwick will retire. There’s a pretty good chance he’ll never make as much money again as he will this upcoming season – it’s a good chunk of a retirement nest egg and I don’t think he gives that away even if assigned to the AHL.

by hockeysymposium on Aug 11, 2010 1:57 PM MDT reply actions  

agreed

A player like Strudwick can’t/won’t walk away from guaranteed mid/high 6 figures for something in the range of high-5/low-6 figures.

Also, I’ve been quietly hoping for/dreading this WOWY. I mean, is this the worst regular player in the NHL (60+ gms, ~17 min/gm TOI)? Is it even close? Is it even in question?

I don’t have time right now, but how does the Strudwick Effect on a player compare to being shorthanded? For example, how far apart is the differential between Horcoff 5v5/Horcoff4v5 and Horcoff(apart)/ Horcoff(w/Strudwick)? Or, what about Zetterberg @5v5/Zetterberg4v5 compared to the average Strudwick effect? ( I could be way off here, just a thought)

Maybe I’m just wallowing in selfpity, but I think these feel like they’d be close… He’s just so bad, its mesmerizing.

by Kish on Aug 11, 2010 2:31 PM MDT up reply actions  

I mean, is this the worst regular player in the NHL (60+ gms, ~17 min/gm TOI)? Is it even close? Is it even in question?

Yes. No. No.

That Strudwick set career highs in both GP and ATOI at age 34 speaks to the dire straits the team was in last year w.r.t. injuries, illness, and depth. No way was he capable of that measure of responsibility.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 15, 2010 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions  

Derek, are you saying that Jason Strudwick… isn’t very good?

by Benjamin Massey on Aug 11, 2010 2:18 PM MDT reply actions  

The weird thing is that some guys watch this player and figure he’s a decent player.

I mean, I can grasp the argument that he’s a helluva leader, but how can anyone who watches him like this player’s performance?

When it comes to team stats being used to rate individual players, this WOWY work is the absolute best.

How did d-men do when paired with Strudwick or without?

I expect they were running to standstill.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Aug 11, 2010 2:41 PM MDT reply actions  

He doesn’t have enough TOI with anyone other than Chorney to make it worthwhile.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 11, 2010 2:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

If these two anchors were married to eachother then I find it more difficult to solely blame him.

Spending a year with a mediocre AHL defenseman sounds equivalent to playing one with thecaptainmoreau or JFJ. It seems reasonable to expect a better partner could help his numbers significantly… probably not respectable 5/6, but maybe there is hope for an adequate 7D there. If giving Horc and Cogs the benefit of the doubt, it seems unfair to characterize Strudwicks season as “worst ever” when not taking his partner into account.

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 12, 2010 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions  

Well, normalize Corsi for zonestar and Chorney’s Corsi is better than Strudwicks :)

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 12, 2010 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’ve always though the “he’s a great leader, he’s so good in the room” argument is that of people who, deep down inside, know that Strudwick can’t be justified as an actual hockey player.

I mean, by all accounts Ales Hemsky is a leader who’s great in the room too. But how often do we have to talk about his intangibles?

by Benjamin Massey on Aug 11, 2010 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions  

Great leaders and locker-room guys are probably worth a little bit more than their on-ice skills, provided they can at least hold water. The mental aspect of the game is voodoo from the outside, but I can buy that they might have more use than their stats alone, especially on young teams facing the pressure of the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time.

But when the Great Leader is also the biggest fucking sinkhole outside Guatemala

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Aug 11, 2010 10:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

If they keep Souray and have some miracle performances in training camp they might be lucky enough to push Strudwick out of the top 7.

I have a feeling they only re-signed Strudwick because Johnson is asking for too much money.

by zys on Aug 11, 2010 4:39 PM MDT reply actions  

That would be encouraging, if true, but I see little reason to believe it: all evidence is that the Oilers’ organization loves Strudwick.

You can count me as among those who say that if you’ve got a dressing room with a history of division, it’s okay to select a seventh defenseman partly on the basis of who can bridge that gap, as long as he only plays 20-25 games. No Oiler fan could be happy about Strudwick being on the team, but since we’ve heard about the problems in the dressing room between veterans and rookies, and since we’ve heard that Strudwick was a veteran who bridged that gap, I can see why they did it.

Besides, it’s kind of the nature of seventh defensemen that they’re not really very good. I’d rather have Strudwick sitting in the box for 55 games and getting killed the other 25 than have a rookie in that position.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 5:38 PM MDT up reply actions  

To add to that, if I could choose any defensive spot to upgrade, I’d choose any of 1 through 6 before I chose Strudwick. Whitney-Gilbert’s a very good second pairing that’s going to be a first pairing, Smid-Foster’s a very good third pairing that’s going to be our second pairing, and Vandermeer-rookie is a not particularly good third pairing. Obviously I don’t know exactly how the pairings are going to turn out, but I think Strudwick’s the least of our problems on D.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 5:42 PM MDT up reply actions  

It’s pretty easy to compare him to other seventh defenseman around the league, especially on bad teams. Guys like Sydor, Methot, MacDonald. Without running the math, how do you think those guys stack up against our man in the room?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 11, 2010 6:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

At a wild guess, he’s probably one of the worst, but looks like he belongs on the same list as them. This assumes that the metric you use adjusts for the fact that his team was worse than all of theirs; without that context, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was hands down worse than any defenseman to play 40 games for a team other than the Oilers last year.

I’m not really defending Strudwick as a hockey player, because he’s clearly not very good; I’m just saying that if he’s playing third pairing minutes in 20-25 games per year, like he should be, then the difference in team impact between him and a replacement level 7D is probably small enough that it could reasonably be offset by the fabled intangibles. If he’s playing second pairing minutes as the 5D with Taylor Chorney 65 games, of the year, then we’re going to be longing for Aaron Johnson, Strudwick’s leadership notwithstanding.

Now, I’m bad at coming up with mathematical arguments but pretty good at accepting it when they demonstrate that I’m full of shit, so I reserve the right to renounce all of this later. But that’s where I’m sitting right now.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 7:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

To elaborate on my first paragraph, we have to remember that, league-wide, seventh defensemen are normally paired with partners who are better than they are (those would be the fifth and sixth defensemen) against relatively soft opposition. Strudwick was paired with Taylor Chorney and coached by Pat Quinn.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 7:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

But given the buyer’s market we are now experiencing, don’t you think that the Oilers could bring someone much better for the same relative cost?

Brian Pothier, Mike Mottau, Paul Mara, Ville Koistinen, Ruslan Salei would all be much better options.

Even Ilkka Heikkinen would be worth a look.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 11, 2010 7:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

Undoubtedly they could have gotten a better hockey player for similar money. I’m just saying that they obviously decided that, for their seventh defenseman, they were going to pick someone on some basis other than a pure question of who could play the best defense (or they’re stupid). If they limit his playing time to third pairing minutes in 20 to 25 games, how many points is he going to cost us in the standings relative to one of those other guys you mentioned? Two or three, max? In a year that we’re not realistically going to contend, I see that as an acceptable tradeoff for helping heal a rift in the dressing room.

If he’s paired up with a rookie for 60+ games, I’m no longer as sanguine.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 8:37 PM MDT up reply actions  

If he’s paired up with a rookie for 60+ games, I’m no longer as sanguine.

This is the issue. The bottom pairing is going to probably contain Vandermeer and Peckham, unless Souray somehow finds his way back to the lineup…

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 11, 2010 9:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m working on the assumption that, however this Souray thing pans out, we’re going to have an overpaid veteran defenseman not named Vandermeer in our top six. I could be wrong.

I also don’t think (in reference to other comments in this thread) that it’s as binary as “trying to win” vs. “not trying to win”. It’s a question of foregoing some success this year for further success down the road. That doesn’t mean that we should aim for another 30th place finish, or that in any given game we should do other than try our damnedest to win it, but it does mean that if Jason Strudwick helps repair a broken dressing room at a cost of two or three points in the standings, and that improvement improves morale and helps retain – and, dare I dream, attract – free agents down the road, then Jason Strudwick’s a defensible signing, even though there are better hockey players available for the same money.

by sarcasticidealist on Aug 12, 2010 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions  

Detroit signed Salei. And getting a better D-man will be ideal if the team was looking to win. I dont think that they are.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Aug 12, 2010 7:45 AM MDT up reply actions  

Detroit signed Salei.

A month after Strudwick signed.

if the team was looking to win. I dont think that they are.

That’s nearly insane, if that’s the case.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 12, 2010 9:16 AM MDT up reply actions  

That’s nearly insane, if that’s the case.

What else is a rebuild? lose more games than you win and get high draft picks!

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Aug 12, 2010 9:18 AM MDT up reply actions  

“Strudwick Struggles To Shoot The Puck” and “Jason Strudwick, The Least-Shootinest Gun In the West. And NHL. Since 1998.” He won the inaugural Golden Rooster award,"

OK I GET IT, HE STINKS…..

by Vince77 on Aug 11, 2010 8:35 PM MDT reply actions  

Oh good. I was hoping that I wasn’t being too subtle.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Aug 11, 2010 9:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

You sometimes understate your points, Derek. Work on that.

by Benjamin Massey on Aug 11, 2010 9:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

Context

As other commenters pointed out, Struds played most of his time with Chorney and too often saw the Sisters or Big Joe Thornton come over the board when Pat tapped him on the shoulder for a defensive zone draw.

If he plays the whole season with Lubo getting protected minutes, the WOWY would look a whole lot different.

by Matt.N on Aug 12, 2010 9:44 AM MDT reply actions  

Most players would look good playing with our best defenseman in a sheltered role. That’s not a high endorsement, and babysitting the likes of Strudwick is wasting the likes of Visnovsky anyway.

by Benjamin Massey on Aug 12, 2010 10:46 AM MDT up reply actions  

The one I liked was the time Quinn (Renney?) replaced Visnovsky with Strudwick for an own-zone faceoff in the last minute of regulation in a tie game against the Stars. $5.6 MM to the bench, $0.7 MM to the ice. Seconds later, Struds made a great backdoor pass to James Neal for the gamewinner. Saved us at least one point in the Fall For Hall, maybe two.

If the goal is one more season buying lottery tickets, Struds is our man.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 15, 2010 10:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

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