Jason Strudwick's On-Ice Impact On His Teammates
Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.
--Samuel Taylor Coleridge: "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner", Part The Second
The Copper & Blue has done some writing about Jason Strudwick in the very recent past. You might remember Jason Strudwick from such titles as "Strudwick Struggles To Shoot The Puck" and "Jason Strudwick, The Least-Shootinest Gun In the West. And NHL. Since 1998." He won the inaugural Golden Rooster award, sharing a piece of the title with Jeff Deslauriers, and only because Deslauriers made a late backside-shoving run at the title who, despite his best effort, couldn't wrest it from Strudwick's death grip.
He also starred in the epic saga, "The Shift", which shouldn't need further description, but here's a hint: it was the longest shift in modern NHL history, a shift in which Strudwick posted a -11 Corsi rating. That's right, a -11 Corsi in a single shift. The only Canadians that have seen action during worse shelling took Juno Beach in 1944.
WOWY Analysis (With Or Without You, an obvious homage to U2, because it should be "With And Without You", but I digress) is not new. The concept is simple: compare player performance with and without certain teammates while on the ice. Some excellent work in this vein includes Tyler's Ovechkin WOWY, Lighthouse Hockey's WOWY on the new Jere Lehtinen, future Selke winner Frans Nielsen, and Scott's Hemsky WOWY.
The Strudwick WOWY is simple, using Vic Ferrari's excellent scripts I ran the 2009-2010 shots data for each Oilers forward with and without Strudwick. The results are in the table below:
| Player | Goals | Saved Shots | Shots% | Missed Shots | Fenwick% | EDM Shots that were Blocked | Corsi% | EVsv% | EVsh% | ||||
| w/ Horcoff | 6 | 10 | 76 | 119 | 0.389 | 30 | 50 | 0.385 | 45 | 70 | 0.387 | 0.922 | 7.30% |
| Horcoff Apart | 24 | 43 | 364 | 381 | 0.478 | 162 | 230 | 0.457 | 190 | 190 | 0.467 | 0.899 | 6.20% |
| w/ Nilsson | 6 | 9 | 73 | 100 | 0.42 | 26 | 50 | 0.398 | 31 | 46 | 0.399 | 0.917 | 7.60% |
| Nilsson Apart | 18 | 29 | 256 | 238 | 0.506 | 114 | 121 | 0.5 | 111 | 129 | 0.491 | 0.891 | 6.60% |
| w/ Cogliano | 12 | 12 | 131 | 181 | 0.426 | 43 | 66 | 0.418 | 56 | 93 | 0.407 | 0.938 | 8.40% |
| Coligano Apart | 31 | 33 | 317 | 355 | 0.473 | 137 | 163 | 0.468 | 176 | 164 | 0.48 | 0.915 | 8.90% |
| w/ Potulny | 5 | 14 | 98 | 122 | 0.431 | 26 | 65 | 0.391 | 26 | 64 | 0.369 | 0.897 | 4.90% |
| Potulny Apart | 18 | 29 | 243 | 248 | 0.485 | 103 | 100 | 0.491 | 123 | 153 | 0.479 | 0.895 | 6.90% |
| W/ Moreau | 8 | 8 | 97 | 148 | 0.402 | 29 | 56 | 0.387 | 38 | 76 | 0.374 | 0.949 | 7.60% |
| Moreau Apart | 15 | 30 | 266 | 363 | 0.417 | 106 | 159 | 0.412 | 148 | 179 | 0.423 | 0.924 | 5.30% |
| w/ O'Sullivan | 7 | 10 | 89 | 112 | 0.44 | 43 | 62 | 0.43 | 34 | 61 | 0.414 | 0.918 | 7.30% |
| O'Sullivan | 21 | 46 | 326 | 385 | 0.446 | 143 | 156 | 0.455 | 139 | 196 | 0.445 | 0.893 | 6.10% |
| W/ Jacques | 2 | 8 | 32 | 48 | 0.378 | 19 | 25 | 0.396 | 19 | 39 | 0.375 | 0.857 | 5.90% |
| Jacques Apart | 16 | 21 | 138 | 205 | 0.405 | 73 | 96 | 0.413 | 78 | 111 | 0.413 | 0.907 | 10.40% |
| w/ Penner | 12 | 17 | 100 | 124 | 0.443 | 47 | 66 | 0.434 | 44 | 68 | 0.425 | 0.879 | 10.70% |
| Penner Apart | 44 | 31 | 411 | 355 | 0.541 | 182 | 176 | 0.531 | 193 | 197 | 0.522 | 0.92 | 9.70% |
| w/ Stone | 3 | 3 | 13 | 15 | 0.471 | 7 | 5 | 0.5 | 13 | 9 | 0.529 | 0.833 | 18.80% |
| Stone Apart | 13 | 11 | 105 | 93 | 0.532 | 57 | 49 | 0.534 | 54 | 51 | 0.529 | 0.894 | 11.00% |
| w/ Pisani | 7 | 7 | 39 | 86 | 0.331 | 13 | 33 | 0.319 | 19 | 42 | 0.317 | 0.925 | 15.20% |
| Pisani Apart | 6 | 19 | 144 | 160 | 0.456 | 60 | 100 | 0.429 | 82 | 89 | 0.442 | 0.894 | 4.00% |
| w/ Stortini | 6 | 7 | 71 | 117 | 0.383 | 31 | 55 | 0.376 | 32 | 62 | 0.367 | 0.944 | 7.80% |
| Stortini Apart | 21 | 16 | 182 | 238 | 0.444 | 80 | 91 | 0.451 | 89 | 127 | 0.441 | 0.937 | 10.30% |
| w/ Brule | 8 | 15 | 87 | 101 | 0.45 | 35 | 50 | 0.439 | 33 | 51 | 0.429 | 0.871 | 8.40% |
| Brule Apart | 30 | 28 | 263 | 265 | 0.5 | 106 | 137 | 0.481 | 120 | 132 | 0.48 | 0.904 | 10.20% |
| w/ Pouliot | 7 | 4 | 57 | 81 | 0.43 | 20 | 39 | 0.404 | 16 | 39 | 0.38 | 0.953 | 10.90% |
| Pouliot Apart | 8 | 11 | 114 | 124 | 0.475 | 47 | 57 | 0.468 | 48 | 60 | 0.463 | 0.919 | 6.60% |
| w/ Hemsky | 1 | 3 | 15 | 29 | 0.333 | 10 | 14 | 0.361 | 17 | 19 | 0.398 | 0.906 | 6.30% |
| Hemsky Apart | 15 | 5 | 112 | 105 | 0.536 | 42 | 35 | 0.538 | 56 | 53 | 0.532 | 0.955 | 11.80% |
| w/ Gagner | 12 | 11 | 88 | 90 | 0.498 | 39 | 59 | 0.465 | 36 | 53 | 0.451 | 0.891 | 12.00% |
| Gagner Apart | 24 | 29 | 341 | 313 | 0.516 | 139 | 145 | 0.509 | 151 | 179 | 0.496 | 0.915 | 6.60% |
| w/ Comrie | 7 | 5 | 59 | 64 | 0.489 | 21 | 38 | 0.448 | 20 | 36 | 0.428 | 0.928 | 10.60% |
| Comrie Apart | 10 | 15 | 153 | 153 | 0.492 | 57 | 69 | 0.481 | 64 | 99 | 0.458 | 0.911 | 6.10% |
Every regular forward employed by the Edmonton Oilers was worse with Strudwick. Significantly worse. Every. Single. Forward. Strudwick's on-ice presence even made J.F. Jacques worse, a remarkable feat considering Jacques' effect on the rest of the roster. Strudwick's presence was especially difficult on Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Ryan Potulny, and Shawn Horcoff as their shots numbers plummeted with Strudwick. He even managed to drag Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky down with him.
Ah! well a-day! what evil looks
Had I from old and young!
Instead of the cross, the Albatross
About my neck was hung.
--Samuel Taylor Coleridge: "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner", Part The Second
And despite all of this, Steve Tambellini locked up Strudwick for yet another year, not only handing him a one-way contract, but a $25,000 raise to boot. Tambellini, Renney, Strudwick and Oiler fans should begin trotting out the lucky charms now, because if Strudwick plays another seventy games this season, it's going to be a tough year. It means that Tambellini didn't find a better option for the seventh defenseman, it means that Renney was stuck with a rookie and Strudwick in the top seven, it means that Strudwick has a very good chance to retire as the worst regular defenseman since expansion and it means that Oiler fans will have to endure another long season of basement-level play.
The people in his corner point to his presence not on the ice, but in the room, as the reason that he was a necessary signing. He's a great locker room guy, a great practice guy, he sticks up for his teammates and will do whatever his coach asks of him, including play forward. Any cohesive team certainly needs those guys around, but not at this price. Lowetide thinks (hopes?) that Strudwick is going to retire at the end of training camp. I do hope that this is the case, as it would be a merciful end for all parties involved. Allow him to retire rather than suffer the indignity of another season, offer him an assistant or associate job and allow him to have an impact on the team from the office, rather than on the ice.
30 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I don’t really understand the Strudwick contract negotiation either.
by hockeysymposium on Aug 11, 2010 1:49 PM MDT reply actions
I definitely don’t think Strudwick will retire. There’s a pretty good chance he’ll never make as much money again as he will this upcoming season – it’s a good chunk of a retirement nest egg and I don’t think he gives that away even if assigned to the AHL.
by hockeysymposium on Aug 11, 2010 1:57 PM MDT reply actions
agreed
A player like Strudwick can’t/won’t walk away from guaranteed mid/high 6 figures for something in the range of high-5/low-6 figures.
Also, I’ve been quietly hoping for/dreading this WOWY. I mean, is this the worst regular player in the NHL (60+ gms, ~17 min/gm TOI)? Is it even close? Is it even in question?
I don’t have time right now, but how does the Strudwick Effect on a player compare to being shorthanded? For example, how far apart is the differential between Horcoff 5v5/Horcoff4v5 and Horcoff(apart)/ Horcoff(w/Strudwick)? Or, what about Zetterberg @5v5/Zetterberg4v5 compared to the average Strudwick effect? ( I could be way off here, just a thought)
Maybe I’m just wallowing in selfpity, but I think these feel like they’d be close… He’s just so bad, its mesmerizing.
I mean, is this the worst regular player in the NHL (60+ gms, ~17 min/gm TOI)? Is it even close? Is it even in question?
Yes. No. No.
That Strudwick set career highs in both GP and ATOI at age 34 speaks to the dire straits the team was in last year w.r.t. injuries, illness, and depth. No way was he capable of that measure of responsibility.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 15, 2010 10:44 AM MDT up reply actions
Derek, are you saying that Jason Strudwick… isn’t very good?
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 11, 2010 2:18 PM MDT reply actions
The weird thing is that some guys watch this player and figure he’s a decent player.
I mean, I can grasp the argument that he’s a helluva leader, but how can anyone who watches him like this player’s performance?
When it comes to team stats being used to rate individual players, this WOWY work is the absolute best.
How did d-men do when paired with Strudwick or without?
I expect they were running to standstill.
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Aug 11, 2010 2:41 PM MDT reply actions
He doesn’t have enough TOI with anyone other than Chorney to make it worthwhile.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If these two anchors were married to eachother then I find it more difficult to solely blame him.
Spending a year with a mediocre AHL defenseman sounds equivalent to playing one with thecaptainmoreau or JFJ. It seems reasonable to expect a better partner could help his numbers significantly… probably not respectable 5/6, but maybe there is hope for an adequate 7D there. If giving Horc and Cogs the benefit of the doubt, it seems unfair to characterize Strudwicks season as “worst ever” when not taking his partner into account.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Aug 12, 2010 11:10 AM MDT up reply actions
Well, normalize Corsi for zonestar and Chorney’s Corsi is better than Strudwicks :)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve always though the “he’s a great leader, he’s so good in the room” argument is that of people who, deep down inside, know that Strudwick can’t be justified as an actual hockey player.
I mean, by all accounts Ales Hemsky is a leader who’s great in the room too. But how often do we have to talk about his intangibles?
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 11, 2010 3:23 PM MDT up reply actions
Great leaders and locker-room guys are probably worth a little bit more than their on-ice skills, provided they can at least hold water. The mental aspect of the game is voodoo from the outside, but I can buy that they might have more use than their stats alone, especially on young teams facing the pressure of the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time.
But when the Great Leader is also the biggest fucking sinkhole outside Guatemala…
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
If they keep Souray and have some miracle performances in training camp they might be lucky enough to push Strudwick out of the top 7.
I have a feeling they only re-signed Strudwick because Johnson is asking for too much money.
That would be encouraging, if true, but I see little reason to believe it: all evidence is that the Oilers’ organization loves Strudwick.
You can count me as among those who say that if you’ve got a dressing room with a history of division, it’s okay to select a seventh defenseman partly on the basis of who can bridge that gap, as long as he only plays 20-25 games. No Oiler fan could be happy about Strudwick being on the team, but since we’ve heard about the problems in the dressing room between veterans and rookies, and since we’ve heard that Strudwick was a veteran who bridged that gap, I can see why they did it.
Besides, it’s kind of the nature of seventh defensemen that they’re not really very good. I’d rather have Strudwick sitting in the box for 55 games and getting killed the other 25 than have a rookie in that position.
by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 5:38 PM MDT up reply actions
To add to that, if I could choose any defensive spot to upgrade, I’d choose any of 1 through 6 before I chose Strudwick. Whitney-Gilbert’s a very good second pairing that’s going to be a first pairing, Smid-Foster’s a very good third pairing that’s going to be our second pairing, and Vandermeer-rookie is a not particularly good third pairing. Obviously I don’t know exactly how the pairings are going to turn out, but I think Strudwick’s the least of our problems on D.
by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 5:42 PM MDT up reply actions
It’s pretty easy to compare him to other seventh defenseman around the league, especially on bad teams. Guys like Sydor, Methot, MacDonald. Without running the math, how do you think those guys stack up against our man in the room?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
At a wild guess, he’s probably one of the worst, but looks like he belongs on the same list as them. This assumes that the metric you use adjusts for the fact that his team was worse than all of theirs; without that context, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was hands down worse than any defenseman to play 40 games for a team other than the Oilers last year.
I’m not really defending Strudwick as a hockey player, because he’s clearly not very good; I’m just saying that if he’s playing third pairing minutes in 20-25 games per year, like he should be, then the difference in team impact between him and a replacement level 7D is probably small enough that it could reasonably be offset by the fabled intangibles. If he’s playing second pairing minutes as the 5D with Taylor Chorney 65 games, of the year, then we’re going to be longing for Aaron Johnson, Strudwick’s leadership notwithstanding.
Now, I’m bad at coming up with mathematical arguments but pretty good at accepting it when they demonstrate that I’m full of shit, so I reserve the right to renounce all of this later. But that’s where I’m sitting right now.
by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 7:09 PM MDT up reply actions
To elaborate on my first paragraph, we have to remember that, league-wide, seventh defensemen are normally paired with partners who are better than they are (those would be the fifth and sixth defensemen) against relatively soft opposition. Strudwick was paired with Taylor Chorney and coached by Pat Quinn.
by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 7:11 PM MDT up reply actions
But given the buyer’s market we are now experiencing, don’t you think that the Oilers could bring someone much better for the same relative cost?
Brian Pothier, Mike Mottau, Paul Mara, Ville Koistinen, Ruslan Salei would all be much better options.
Even Ilkka Heikkinen would be worth a look.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Undoubtedly they could have gotten a better hockey player for similar money. I’m just saying that they obviously decided that, for their seventh defenseman, they were going to pick someone on some basis other than a pure question of who could play the best defense (or they’re stupid). If they limit his playing time to third pairing minutes in 20 to 25 games, how many points is he going to cost us in the standings relative to one of those other guys you mentioned? Two or three, max? In a year that we’re not realistically going to contend, I see that as an acceptable tradeoff for helping heal a rift in the dressing room.
If he’s paired up with a rookie for 60+ games, I’m no longer as sanguine.
by sarcasticidealist on Aug 11, 2010 8:37 PM MDT up reply actions
If he’s paired up with a rookie for 60+ games, I’m no longer as sanguine.
This is the issue. The bottom pairing is going to probably contain Vandermeer and Peckham, unless Souray somehow finds his way back to the lineup…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m working on the assumption that, however this Souray thing pans out, we’re going to have an overpaid veteran defenseman not named Vandermeer in our top six. I could be wrong.
I also don’t think (in reference to other comments in this thread) that it’s as binary as “trying to win” vs. “not trying to win”. It’s a question of foregoing some success this year for further success down the road. That doesn’t mean that we should aim for another 30th place finish, or that in any given game we should do other than try our damnedest to win it, but it does mean that if Jason Strudwick helps repair a broken dressing room at a cost of two or three points in the standings, and that improvement improves morale and helps retain – and, dare I dream, attract – free agents down the road, then Jason Strudwick’s a defensible signing, even though there are better hockey players available for the same money.
by sarcasticidealist on Aug 12, 2010 11:43 AM MDT up reply actions
Detroit signed Salei. And getting a better D-man will be ideal if the team was looking to win. I dont think that they are.
Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.
Detroit signed Salei.
A month after Strudwick signed.
if the team was looking to win. I dont think that they are.
That’s nearly insane, if that’s the case.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
“Strudwick Struggles To Shoot The Puck” and “Jason Strudwick, The Least-Shootinest Gun In the West. And NHL. Since 1998.” He won the inaugural Golden Rooster award,"
OK I GET IT, HE STINKS…..
Oh good. I was hoping that I wasn’t being too subtle.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
You sometimes understate your points, Derek. Work on that.
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 11, 2010 9:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Context
As other commenters pointed out, Struds played most of his time with Chorney and too often saw the Sisters or Big Joe Thornton come over the board when Pat tapped him on the shoulder for a defensive zone draw.
If he plays the whole season with Lubo getting protected minutes, the WOWY would look a whole lot different.
Most players would look good playing with our best defenseman in a sheltered role. That’s not a high endorsement, and babysitting the likes of Strudwick is wasting the likes of Visnovsky anyway.
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 12, 2010 10:46 AM MDT up reply actions
The one I liked was the time Quinn (Renney?) replaced Visnovsky with Strudwick for an own-zone faceoff in the last minute of regulation in a tie game against the Stars. $5.6 MM to the bench, $0.7 MM to the ice. Seconds later, Struds made a great backdoor pass to James Neal for the gamewinner. Saved us at least one point in the Fall For Hall, maybe two.
If the goal is one more season buying lottery tickets, Struds is our man.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 15, 2010 10:39 AM MDT up reply actions

by 
































