Jordan Eberle, Number Four In The Oilers Top 25 Under 25
by Derek Zona on Aug 1, 2010 1:30 PM MDT
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Jordan Eberle is more popular than the Beatles. Well, he's more popular than the Beatles in Canada, at least. His late-game heroics in the last two World Junior Championships have garnered him a reputation for being clutch. Very clutch. He seems to score late-game goals like the NHL's newest playoff superstar, the San Jose Sharks' Joe Pavelski. When it comes to "seen him good" analysis, all of Canada thinks Eberle is going to be the next big thing. After all, every time he's been on the biggest stage possible for a kid in Major Juniors, he's been the best player on the ice. So why wouldn't he be the next big thing?
The problem for me when I rank Eberle is that clutch doesn't exist, so I have to hang my hat something else, namely numbers or attributes. It's not that I don't like Eberle as an prospect, because I do, very much. I think that he may one day be effective, especially on the power play. But when it comes to overall attributes, Eberle is probably the most lacking player in our top 10. When I wrote Tyler Pitlick's profile, I talked about how he possesses all of the five tools of a hockey player:
...he's a good skater, he has an above-average shot, he's good in the circle, he's physical and he has hockey sense or presence,
Eberle isn't more than an average skater, he does have an above-average shot, he's not a faceoff guy, he's not particularly physical, although he does have exceptional hockey sense, he's not an exceptional passer and he lacks NHL size. Players of Eberle's ilk often do make the NHL, and some have succeeded, however, those players that have succeeded all had some superior skill or attribute that they were able to rely on to make the next level. For Eberle, it's going to have to be the always-nebulous "hockey sense" that makes him a player in the NHL.
Even though I'm down on the overall package that Eberle delivers, I've still ranked him in the top eight. And that ranking all comes down to one thing - numbers. At every level, Jordan Eberle's numbers have been outstanding.
Eberle slips one spot in the rankings. I dropped him two spots from six to eight, but that was zeroed out by Jonathan moving him up to five from seven. Ben left him in second overall and Scott and Bruce both dropped him by one spot.
The writers here (except for Ben) often write about NHLE. It's one of Desjardins' most significant contributions and it's been shown to have remarkable predictive ability. Eberle's NHLE (chart below) has been steadily rising, which is to be expected of an overage player in a Major Junior hockey league. However, Eberle's NHLE keeps on rising while he plays professional hockey, in this case, with Springfield in the AHL.
| Season | Team | Lge | GP | G | A | Pts |
| 2006-07 | Regina Pats | WHL | 82E | 10 | 10 | 21 |
| 2007-08 | Regina Pats | WHL | 82E | 15 | 12 | 26 |
| 2008-09 | Regina Pats | WHL | 82E | 14 | 16 | 30 |
| 2008-09 | Springfield Falcons | AHL | 82E | 12 | 24 | 36 |
| 2009-10 | Regina Pats | WHL | 82E | 21 | 24 | 45 |
| 2009-10 | Springfield Falcons | AHL | 82E | 20 | 26 | 46 |
What's most impressive about Eberle's production during his short stints in the AHL is that he's posted those numbers on a really awful team. At age 18, he posted nine points in nine games, pacing well ahead of anyone else on the team. The next season, aged 19, he appeared in eleven games and scored 14 points, again, a pace that was only matched by longtime AHL veteran, and new KHL signee Charles Linglet.
When Bruce looked at Eberle in February, he thought that his eventual range was somewhere between David Oliver and Joe Mullen. I think the Mullen comparison is a bit much, so my top-end comparable is Alex Tanguay.
Why Alex Tanguay? Their juniors scoring rates are remarkably similar and their games and attributes are also similar. Eberle is 5'11", 180 lbs, while Tanguay is 6' 192 lbs. Desjardins has proven that Tanguay has relied on his true shooting ability to make it through, and Eberle might have to do something very similar. If Eberle doesn't have true shooting skill and has to rely on smarts and hockey sense, his top-end comparable would be David Vyborny.
If Eberle were to burst into the NHL playing the right side with Dustin Penner and Sam Gagner, he would have every chance to score 20 goals and post 25 assists. Given his linemates, if they were to get second minutes, he might get more. He might end up with a Calder.
He might. Then again, the speed of the NHL game and the size of his opponents might overwhelm him. He might not be able to display his world-class hockey sense because he might be chasing the play rather than creating it. And therein lies my dilemma with Jordan Eberle. Given his track record, I think there's no reason he can't succeed. But breaking down the player logically, pragmatically, I can't find a reason to explain why he will succeed.
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great analysis though i cant imagine eberle not being a great player in the nhl, but then again im biased
As are all Oilers fans. Eberle is the one guy in the top ten that is impossible to categorize as a specific type of player that will lead to his success in the NHL.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Mike Bossy is the actual definition of “sniper” – look it up.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
A definition already replaced in newer dictionaries by “Jordan. Fucking. Eberle. See also: clutch”
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 1, 2010 2:25 PM MDT up reply actions
Pierre McGuire and I keep telling you, he’s a Joe Mullen type player.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 1, 2010 3:10 PM MDT up reply actions
Stats fan thinks that all professional athletes are robots without emotions or any mental outlook that might affect their game: news@11.
Exactly. “Clutch doesn’t exist” is an excessively strong, unprovable statement. Just because we don’t understand it (and sportscasters violently molest the term despite the same) doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Yeah, Jari Kurri was C-L-U-T-C-H !!! 1!
Refute that, Coach.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 1, 2010 11:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Just because we don’t understand it (and sportscasters violently molest the term despite the same) doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist.
Prove that it does.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t think the burden of proof necessarily lies with Doogie. The position that “clutch exists but isn’t easily measurable because the effect is small and hockey as a whole is soaked in randomness” seems to account for the data just as well as “clutch doesn’t exist.”
by Scott Reynolds on Aug 2, 2010 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions
Furthermore, if we could quantify how the human body responds to stress and emotion, we might just have the holy grail of neurophysiology.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I’ll also add to this, after some thought, that clutch/choke, by its nature, is a small sample-size effect. If it had sustain, it wouldn’t be clutch/choke, it would be good/bad at hockey.
I mean, which makes more sense? That Halak’s .932 through two rounds — and .977 in elimination games or whatever absurd number it was — was due entirely to variations in the shape of the ice and boards, position of objects in shooting lanes, and inconsistencies and imperfections in the execution of planned movement (i.e. “randomness”), or that it was due at least in part to the shooters firing it at Halak’s chest? We know it’s not due to poor shot selection, from a shooting position perspective (thanks Olivier!), but maybe it’s poor shot selection from the where-it’s-aimed perspective. I know Contrarian has shown that elite goalies don’t really make guys miss more often than average goalies, but I wonder how that works for goalies on hot streaks? I would imagine we’d be more likely to see something in the small samples than the large ones. Certainly, it’s reasonable to me that what starts out as luck could easily be sustained by the effects of being human, at least for a little while longer than chance would ordinarily suggest. How else do you explain the number increasing so much in elimination games? It’s certainly not all Halak, that much we can all agree on.
Put more succinctly, if everything’s down to the clattering of dice, the dice must be weighted at a certain point. After all, dice have no memory or emotion, whereas clearly, humans do, and the effects of that cannot be ignored just because they’re inconvenient and not easily accounted for.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Why don’t we trade Eberle for Pitkanen? I mean, he can skate, shoot the puck and pass exceptionally. He’s also big, and can play a lot of minutes. His tools are amazing, and should, by all accounts, make for a better player.
I don’t think it’s fair to question Eberle because you perceive him to be, by virtue of having a less flashy tool-kit, as being doomed to an inferior player. I mean, based on physical tools, should Cogliano and his blazing speed be better than Gagner?
In the end, as long as you’re effective, it doesn’t matter how. And Eberle has been effective at every level; there’s no reason to believe he is going to be anything but effective into the future until he provides evidence to the contrary.
Why don’t we trade Eberle for Pitkanen?
Pitkanen signed to a long-term deal? I do that trade in less time than it takes you to finish the thought. Pitkanen is a fantastic defender who was amazingly effective during his time in Edmonton. He takes shit from the fans because he took shit from MacTavish, exactly like Dustin Penner prior to this year. Penner had about eight fans in Edmonton, Pitkanen has about three. Penner proved those of us that knew he was effective right, and Pitkanen would have as well.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Two fans in Edmonton, actually. He still has one in Winnipeg.
I was so upset when we gave up on him so early, but I do remember him having a rough go-around with management and the training staff over his diagnosed bouts with “the wimps”. All defenders can’t be expected to play through a pair of separated shoulders like Gator. Pitkanen was never a big powerplay producer either, but the things he did at even strength made Lubo look like an amateur.
but the things he did at even strength made Lubo look like an amateur.
Agreed. Bruce did a WOWY workup on him once before.
Text here, for completeness:
During the back-and-forth about Joni Pitkanen in the (last) Colorado game day thread, Coach PB 9617 suggested that I check out the Oilers record inc. GF/GA with and without Pitkanen in the line-up. It was a good suggestion, and since he asked me so nicely, Vic, I decided to check it out.
Well the results are fairly telling and worth recounting, given that Pitkanen’s future is probably the biggest single question hanging over Kevin Lowe this off-season. Here’s the gross numbers for 2007-08:
Oilers overall record: 39-34-5, +225/-241, .532
With Joni in line-up: 32-23-4, +178/-175, .576
Joni out of the line-up: 7-11-1, +47/-66, .441
Well that’s a bit of an eye-opener isn’t it? And my compliments to Coach PB 9617 for a pretty astute observation (esp. for a 14-year-old, eh Coach? :o )
Well before I got too excited about those numbers, I decided to ditch the shootout noise in favour of the signal that is actual hockey. For one thing, Pitkanen has not been involved in a shootout all year – the one he might have, the marathon in Washington, was a game he left in the first period with (yet another) minor injury. So I reworked the information in the traditional format, considering overtime wins and losses as actual wins and losses, and all shootouts as ties. And I made the ersatz "goals" disappear.
Oilers record in actual hockey: 24-36-18, +210/-238, .423
With Joni dressed: 21-25-13, +167/-173, .471
Joni on the shelf: 3-11-5, +43/-65, .289
Well if anything that makes the picture more starkly clear, even though the record with Joni sinks below .500 and his goal-differential submerges from positive to negative, the performance of the team without him speaks volumes. This shows up well in per-game GF/GA:
With Joni: +2.83 / -2.93
Without: +2.26 / -3.42
Wow! that’s half a goal in each direction. Hard to argue with numbers like those.
But I’m an argumentative son of a bitch, and I will always argue that numbers need to be put in context. So perhaps that’s too simple. Pitkanen missed 13 games early in the season, when the Oilers (esp. Roloson, who was playing himself out of the #1 job) were struggling with or without him. Since then it’s just been the odd game here and there, unfortunately critical games like Fight Night in Vancouver or the last visit to Colorado. But Pitkanen has been in the line-up for most of the Oilers’ post-All-Star run. Did the Oilers slump because Pitkanen was out? Or is Pitkanen’s record inflated because he happened to miss the slump?
Well there’s no perfect answer to that, but I decided to look specifically at the opening two months, when Oilers mostly struggled, and Pitkanen missed exactly half of those games. So:
With Joni: 4-7-2, +31/-37, .385
Without: 1-7-5, +27/-41, .269
So still a significant difference in Joni’s favour, although not quite the yawning gulf of the season-long study. Extending the principle to per-game goal scoring to that same group of 26 games:
Joni in: +2.38/ -2.85
Joni out: +2.08 / -3.15
So a smaller difference of "just" 0.3 on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ledger.
Fuck, I think I am convinced.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Oh, and saying where his ceiling might be is premature, at this point. There are plenty of superstars that drastically outdid what the “highest possible expectation” was at some point; otherwise, none of them would have ever been drafted outside the top three. As unlikely as it is that Eberle turns into a perennial 40+ goal scorer on his way to the Hall of Fame, it’s not like that story hasn’t been written before. We can only hope that we get that storyline, instead of the “promising youngster who flamed out and was quickly forgotten” one. Truth is likely here in the middle, but I don’t think it’s that reasonable to cut off his future at some arbitrary threshold of likelihood.
At risk of defending Derek, which is something I try to avoid, it’s not really fair to factor in “sometimes the kid will turn into a superstar” when we’re predicting a player’s ceiling. That’s always a slim possibility with any legitimate NHL prospect. When we talk about a guy’s ceiling, the implicit word should be “likely”. It’s possible that Jordan Eberle actually is Mike Bossy, and it’s also possible that in Oklahoma he discovers a love for Dunkin’ Donuts and turns into Eddie “Bacon” Caron’.
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 1, 2010 2:15 PM MDT up reply actions
I don’t think it’s that reasonable to cut off his future at some arbitrary threshold of likelihood.
That’s the entire point of making a comparison – to give the reader a reference point outside of the existing subject matter so that they can relate to the subject.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
_though he’s not an exceptional passer _
I disagree. I mean he’s not going to feed it through 3 pairs of legs across the ice, but has a very accurate pass and is a pretty good judge of when to put something extra on or take something off. The other thing is his passing skills don’t completely fall of the map when he’s skating either.
I think he’s a very under-rated passer and IMO, it’s the best of his physical skills (including over his shot).
Agree with Dawgbone that Eberle’s passing skills are excellent. He’s got the knack of drawing defenders in to him and then putting the puck through them before they can react. Great timing as to when to release the pass and at what speed.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Aug 1, 2010 3:12 PM MDT up reply actions
I would say that limiting skill definitions to the five mentioned in the article makes it hard to evaluate players like Eberle. I would agree with those above that Eberle is a very good passer. I also think he has very quick hands. To me that is going to be his elite level skill. That encompasses quick crisp passes and his quick release.
Gretzky wasn’t a five tool player. I’m not saying Eberle is Gretzky. It’s hard to say who he would be compared to but he sees the ice very well and he was surprisingly good at training camp this year. As a fan it’s safer to underestimate and be pleasantly surprised but it’s hard to not take notice of his offensive ability. The next few years should be fun with this lot of young players coming up.
To go along with the hands comment above, Ebere has been pretty highly regarded in one-on-one situations when he had the puck since his draft year. That suggests to me that he has superior stickhandling as well. Even if he doesn’t have that one really good physical skill, being above-average (at the NHL level) in passing, shooting, and stickhandling will go a long, long way. Add to that the consensus that he’s very good at reading the play on offense, and you’ve got a pretty dangerous player, at least in the offensive zone. The biggest question marks for me are his ability to play without the puck and his ability to win puck battles along the boards.
He’s also very good at picking pucks out from underneath Russian defenders and roofing it in a handful of seconds.
Just sayin’. ;)
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I’m also a bit curious as to what you’ve seen from Omark that has you putting him ahead of Eberle. They’re both small forwards with good numbers in other leagues, but Omark is quite a bit older. Is there one thing in particular that you feel differentiates the two?
Derek hates Eberle. We’ve been over this!
by Benjamin Massey on Aug 1, 2010 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions
The great thing about being a fan
Jordan Eberle made me remember his name the day he went to the back hand with 5.4 seconds left and woke up my infant son with my fist pump and roar. He made me follow him the day he got drafted by the Oilers. He made a fan of me with 2 goals and a post in the 3rd against the Americans to tie it up. So,I’m going to throw out the objectivity, shrug off the pessimism and get on the band wagon. I get to put away my thinking cap and put on a big foam finger.
shrug off the pessimism and get on the band wagon. I get to put away my thinking cap and put on a big foam finger.
Like me and Jeff Petry. Or Chris VandeVelde.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Before I was, not seriously mind you, questioning Derek and Jon for ranking Eberle too low. Now I get to question Ben for ranking Eberle ahead of two of Hall, Gagner, and Paajarvi.
This criticizing others while not throwing my own opinion out there is easy!
And fun!
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