The Ruffians on the Ice
There is nothing I love more than a hockey player who can fight.
Why do you think I like Mike Comrie so much? Little, played for the St. Albert Saints and the Edmonton Oilers, could score like he needed one more goal to get his kids back, and every so often would lure a seemingly superior opponent into a false sense of security before dropping the gloves and giving him a good old thrashing. I don't care what certain reporters or even some louder fans say, fighting is terrific. There's a reason twenty thousand people will leap up and cheer for a good one, even if it's just two heavyweights going through the motions in the name of some ephemeral Code rather than out of genuine animosity.
Certainly, if Glen Sather's only goal was to make the New York Rangers more entertaining, he did his job signing Derek Boogaard. That guy's got fists like pistons. Todd Fedoruk still wakes up screaming after remembering Boogaard's reconstructive surgery on his face. Watching a man fall over clutching his head in agony has never looked so good.
You know what? I even think there's an argument that signing players who can fight makes good hockey sense. Nothing quantifiable, nothing that most of our readers would be able to put any stock in, but hockey is an emotional game played balancing on a knife's edge between intensity and a loss of control, and the sight of a teammate dropping the gloves and standing up for his club in the most obvious manner can be a fortifying one. A good fighter is like a good leader or a popular teammate: somebody whose contribution cannot be laid down in easy numerical terms but who is making a contribution all the same.
That doesn't mean I think teams should sign goons, though. Oh, God, no.
Let us take our own Zack Stortini as an example. Stortini got in 17 fights in the 2009-10 season. The Oilers win-loss record in games where Stortini fought, regardless of whether he won or lost, was 7-8, and in all other games was 20-47 (Stortini fought twice in games against Tampa Bay and San Jose; the Oilers won both). It's a small sample and of course the Oilers are a rather extreme example as one of their core problems was that, being a terrible team which was compiling terrible results, they needed better-than-average effort and intensity to win any hockey game and anything that might spur them on to greater efforts was an asset. More importantly, correlation does not equal causation: were the Oilers playing harder because Stortini inspired them with his fisticuffs, or did Stortini drop the gloves because the Oilers were playing hard and he was caught up in the rush?
It's a terrible example in another way, as well: Zack Stortini is actually quite a good hockey player as well as a decent scrapper. You can play Stortini for seven, eight, even ten minutes a night and come out ahead. Stortini and Dustin Penner were the only Oilers to play more than sixty games and record a plus rating. Even on a night where Stortini doesn't inspire anybody in his vague, impossible-to-quantify but undoubtedly entertaining way, you'll still want him on the ice because he knows his way around it. This isn't true of Derek Boogaard, or Steve MacIntyre, or Jody Shelley, or Donald Brashear, or most of the other players we think of when we say the word "goon". It wasn't true of Georges Laraque for the longest time, although as Big Georges becomes a parody of his former self it is growing more and more accurate by the day.
I have nothing but respect for well-rounded ruffians like Zack Stortini but I have absolutely no time for mere goons or tough guys on my hockey team. Why would I? A guy who can score goals or prevent them has a far larger and far clearer impact on team success than somebody who plays two minutes a game and can punch really hard. Somebody who can do both is by far preferable, and thank goodness we have one. So why did we sign that garbage bag full of useless MacIntyre again?
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Any clue what the winning record of the Wild was when Boogard faught? Because the only case you brought up (Stortini) seems quite contradictory to your conclusions.
An injury to Taylor Hall could easily be worth a million dollars. I’m at least glad that Boogard is in New York and not Calgary.
Any clue what the winning record of the Wild was when Boogard faught?
8-1 last year, 29-20-2 for his career.
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by George E. Ays on Jul 4, 2010 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions
My conclusions were as follows:
1) The Oilers’ record improved when Stortini fought. Was that correlation (the Oilers were playing their balls out, Stortini got caught up in that and threw down with a guy), causation (Stortini fighting inspired the Oilers, made them try harder, otherwise helped the team, and they won more often), or neither (it was only fifteen games)? It is impossible to determine.
2) It is better to have a good hockey player than a good fighter because we know that a good hockey player can help you win games and in a way far more direct than a good fighter. It is best to have both, which is why I praise Stortini and condemn Macintyre.
I don’t know that the evidence disagrees with me there.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 4, 2010 5:33 PM PDT up reply actions
I don’t really understand how you can use Stortini’s fighting record to say that his fighting helps the Oilers unless fighting is more important to the Oilers than it is to other teams or if it’s only the “designated” fighter scrapping that helps. In every scrap, both teams need to have one of the participants so for every game one guy’s team wins, the other guy’s team loses. It seems to me that you’ll just end up with a bunch of results randomly distributed in terms of the teams who outperform their expected winning percentage and those who underperform it.
“…the Oilers are a rather extreme example as one of their core problems was that, being a terrible team which was compiling terrible results, they needed better-than-average effort and intensity to win any hockey game and anything that might spur them on to greater efforts was an asset.”
In short, the Oilers would get more from a fight because there was more for them to get.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 4, 2010 5:30 PM PDT up reply actions
That seems possible. We could look at the records of teams with fewer than 70 points over the last few years and compare their records when there’s a fight v. no fight. Would that be a reasonable test?
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 4, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Has anyone ever done a test to see if there is a correlation between winning a fight and game? Ie a 65%+ win from hockeyfights on a fight in a game where the outcome has yet to be decided… There probably isnt anything to it but I’d still like to see the results
“In short, the Oilers would get more from a fight because there was more for them to get.”
So 500k for a 30th place team is defensible?
I thought in previous years that with Lubo, Hemsky, Souray our PP would be punishing enough that we wouldnt need a tough guy. Team toughness is a crock, get an enforcer ;)
Gabe Desjardins did in fact look at this already. The gist is that there seems to be a small increase in a team’s ability if that team’s player decisively wins a fight, but the increased level is negligible since the increase is very small and there aren’t all that many fights with decisive winners.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 5, 2010 6:10 AM PDT up reply actions
Ya I guess I just think there is more to it than what shows in the numbers. We’re talking about 4-5 min a game here so the intangibles weigh heavier than what reflects in the numbers. You think Milan Lucic would be running around vs the Rangers this year? How would you measure Lucic’s reduced effectiveness (if any)? You cant, plus the sample size would be too small. The Oilers have missed many man games due to Boogard which easily compensates for the 1 loss per year for his ice time. Crosby wants a tough guy, Chicago seems to want a tough guy. Looking at GD alone is like looking at a map through a straw. There is more to it – better compete levels, team synergy, momentum ect. Can I prove it through math? No. But the math is just a (incredibly useful) tool. It doesnt always tell the story.
Im gonna get roasted here and I was just playing devils advocate. But I have to defend myself right? ;)
I don’t think Lucic will play any differently against the Rangers this year unless it’s to respond to Boogaard hurting a Bruin. Physical players will continue being physical players. That said, Boogaard does hurt people and if your goal in acquiring him is injuring your opponents, he’s a good choice.
As for the stuff about better compete levels, team synergy and momentum, I don’t think there’s any reason to believe that having a fighter in the lineup improves these things. Looking at the evidence we do have, the fights themselves don’t seem to impact the team in a substantial way in that they don’t help the team as a whole achieve better goal differential (i.e. “winning more”). The other way one might try to show the value of a designated fighter is looking at a team “with or without” analysis with fighters in and out of the lineup. My guess is that teams do marginally better “without” overall which is why you don’t generally see goons dressing in the playoffs.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 5, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
“My guess is that teams do marginally better "without" overall which is why you don’t generally see goons dressing in the playoffs.”
I agree with this but there are also reasons why players like Aaron Downy or Brad May are some of the most respected and liked guys in the room. These players answer challenges physically over a 82 game grind even though they don’t see the ice much come playoffs.
The evidence would be opinions of the guys who play game.
“The hilarious part about this is hat on GD alone, goons are worth about one loss per season.”
Ya that’s hilarious but you don’t measure goons on GD, especially when they only play 4-5 a game.
Lets say you have two 30 goal UFA’s to purchase. There are equally good at preventing goals, have a similar corsi (or whathaveya) but one has 20 penalty minutes and the other has 200 penalty minutes. I’d bet the guy with the 200 penalties minutes costs a significant amount more. On the other side, the math would suggest that the 200 penalty minutes is actually costing his team wins.
My biggest point in all this is that as math guys (I’m one of them) we don’t really have answers for the intangibles and too many times when making these generic claims we’re missing key pieces of the puzzle.
After watching the Oilers attempts to be a puck possession team (ie Lubo, Grebs, Gagner, Cogliano, O’Sullivan, Nilsson, Comrie) while getting rag dolled all over the ice I’d like to see the team be able to protect itself … and most importantly Hall, Eberle, MPS.
I’m sympathetic to the idea that you want good people and so I can understand why the Oilers might want a guy like Strudwick in the room. He helps to provide a good atmosphere and makes work an enjoyable place for the other players. I can understand that that has value. But on the ice, he’s costing his team games. That’s important too.
As for being pushed around, I don’t think a goon will help with that at all. You need tough players who will actually be on the ice, or they don’t make much difference. I also don’t think the biggest problem the Oilers had last year was toughness. There are good tough teams and good not-so tough teams and good teams in the middle. Same with bad teams. The common denominator on good teams is skill. The Oilers weren’t very skilled, especially in goal, and it resulted in a lot of losses. I guess it might be more fun to watch a bad tough team than a bad not-so tough team but I very much doubt getting tougher through the addition of a goon will help them get better results. Now, if the guy can also play hockey, that’ll make you better, which rolls back around to Ben’s point in the article: you need players who can play hockey.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 6, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions
You need tough players who will actually be on the ice, or they don’t make much difference
I suspect this to be true. My own math shows that “goons” cost their teams about 1 win per year and “fighters” are about even in GD.
You need guys like Rick Tocchet, Keith Tkachuk, Zack Stortini, and Milan Lucic – they can play the game and in the case of Stortini, hold his head above water against similar competition.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
My biggest point in all this is that as math guys (I’m one of them) we don’t really have answers for the intangibles and too many times when making these generic claims we’re missing key pieces of the puzzle.
Well said, puckdonkey, and not said often enough IMO. I’m a numbers guy too, but they don’t make numbers for everything.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 6, 2010 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions
The intangibles are in there, but claiming they are so, does not make them so.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I agree with that but the distinction with Boogard is that he is the best. My guess is that the Oilers record with MacIntrye is also better without over the last 2 years too as he doesnt lose many fights. Same with Semenko back in the day – although without the instegator rule his impact would be lessened. Regardless, Im not sure why we argue that the ability to score/prevent goals as the most important attribute for a goon who plays under 4 minutes a game. Their value is about 90% intangible. When your oppenent doesnt have a match, all you can do is hope for a href=“http://www.hockeyfights.com/fights/92593”>the best case scenario
Im mostly playing devils advocate here and I agree with the math peoples arguments (for the most part). On the other hand, I dont see the need to bash the Oilers choice of Steve MacIntyre as 14th forward as is so common here. These players have value.
Time to publish
The hilarious part about this is hat on GD alone, goons are worth about one loss per season.
They only play about five minutes per.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

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