Tambellini's Work Is Never Done
Steve Tambellini talked Gilbert Brule into signing a contract with a $1,850,000 cap hit over the next two years, and in doing so, proved that he's no Kevin Lowe. Lowe's propensity for over-paying everyone that had the word "free agent" mentioned in the same breath left many Oiler fans believing that Tambellini would also overpay his restricted free agents this summer. Though I, and a great many of our regular readers, believe that $1,850,000 is still an overpay, it's not $2,500,000 per year, which is what I thought Brule would walk away with. Adding to the situation was the ridiculous arbitration award given to Clarke MacArthur and the crazy Mason Raymond contract.
I'm sure at some point we'll conduct an in-depth review of Tambellini's off-season, but to this point, he's been quiet, ticking the low-hanging fruit from his to-do list.
He listened to The Copper & Blue at the draft table by taking Tyler Pitlick thirty-first overall and Martin Marincin with the Riley Nash pick. He used some sort of Haitian mind control on Scott Howson and got rid of Ethan Moreau for nothing. He swiped Colin Fraser from the Chicago Blackhawks to fix Kevin Lowe's Kyle Brodziak faux pas. He signed Kurtis Foster. He got useful one-year asset, Jim Vandermeer, for allowing the Phoenix Coyotes to buy out Patrick O'Sullivan.
There are some nice moves here, and there may be a glimmer of hope coming from Rexall, but as I said above, this was all low-hanging fruit. Some difficult decisions loom ahead and Tambellini will show his true skills through August and September. We've already talked about the Sheldon Souray situation, kerfuffle, happening, etc. That situation and Nikolai Khabibulin's September 29th trial, remain the elephants in the dressing room. But there is other work to to be done, after the jump we'll look at what lies ahead for Steve Tambellini and the organization.
- There may be more important players on the team, and there may be more important prospects in the organization, but if Tambellini doesn't come up with a plan for Andrew Cogliano, the Oilers risk turning a bright young prospect into a sideshow. Cogliano has been almost-traded during each of the last two off-seasons and has spent significant time on the 4th line in each of the last two seasons. His playing time over the last twenty-four months seemed wedded to Ethan Moreau, not exactly the type of linemate anyone imagined Cogliano would have to carry early in his career. But Cogliano has been treated to bottom three minutes by two different coaches in the last two seasons, and without absolutely lighting up training camp, seems destined to remain in the bottom six for his Edmonton future. Tambellini needs to move the kid for some return as soon as possible, or maybe pair him with Souray to land something other than a cap dump when the blueliner gets moved.
- There has been absolutely no news on the Sam Gagner negotiations so far during the off-season. Gagner is the second-most important young player on the team, and easily the most important pivot in the entire organization. If Gagner takes a step forward this season, the Oilers are going to be a much more difficult team to play against, and a big season from Gagner will make even the most ardent Tyler Seguin supporters slink into the shadows. We know Tambellini works slowly and methodically, but there have previously been rumors of a one-year contract for Sam. If the rumors have a tinge of truth to them, signing Gagner to a one-year deal could be a massive losing bet if Gagner progresses to outscoring second minutes and gets power play time with Dustin Penner and Ales Hemsky.
- The Oklahoma City Baron still lack a General Manager, and even though the Oilers have been handling all of the AHL signings so far, the Barons need someone in house to start the process of building the rest of the roster. I've noticed Oklahoma City-based reporters like Ryan Aber talking about the wait, and given the delay in announcing the team name, the Oilers should be doing everything they can to create buzz about the new team. Oklahoma City is a great minor league hockey market, but the Oilers run the risk of becoming yesterday's news with these enormous gaps in the news cycle.
- If Sheldon Souray is moving out of Alberta, the Oilers are left with a hole on defense large enough to fly the Canyon Diablo Meteorite through. If a second-pairing defenseman (with penalty killing experience) doesn't come back for Souray or Cogliano, that becomes one of Tambellini's highest priorities. Like B.C.B. from Bringing Back The Glory said: "The Oilers need another NHL Defenseman. This cannot be the line up we enter the season with."
- Last but not least is an oldie but a goodie, a remake that tops the charts every year, an unaddressed deficiency so bad that if it were Vitamin C, everyone associated with Edmonton management would have died of scurvy long ago: the Oilers must sign a tough-minutes center or wing, one with penalty killing expertise. This task needs no explanation, but there are still a bevvy of candidates on the market, and as long as demand is low, Tambellini has reason to wait. The candidates include Jere Lehtinen, Eric Belanger, Dominic Moore, Nigel Dawes, Stephane Veilleux and Richard Park.
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I dont think Mason Raymond has a crazy contract. Its not really discounted but its not an overpay either.
That said, Its time to get Gagner re-signed. I say 4 years 3-3.5 mil per. There is a potential of Gagner outperforming his contract in the final 2 years of the contract may be even 3. Also He will be an RFA at the end of the deal
If everyone thinks that a player is underrated, then he ceases to be one.
I don’t think Gagner would be a restricted free agent, but this kind of hinges on what happens in the next round of collective bargaining. I believe the rule is twenty-seven years old or seven years of service, whichever comes first. And if that’s the case, a four-year contract would give Gagner seven years of service.
The Raymond contract is interesting. I agree with you that it doesn’t seem like this huge discount, but Raymond is significantly better than some of the other players who have been given contracts between 2M and 2.5M. RFA valuations just seem a bit wonky in general.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 28, 2010 8:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I dont think Mason Raymond has a crazy contract. Its not really discounted but its not an overpay either.
He got big money for a single year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
but he is not a 30 year old to have a big season.
this was at the age of 23. He was a 2nd round pick. His record suggest he has been a good scorer at every league he has played in.
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=87914
so there is a higher chance that he either plateaus or improves on his 25-28-53 performance than he regresses. So I think this is a good amount
Jeez, you are a tough critic. I freely admit that I may have my blue-and-green-tinted glasses on, but I’m hard pressed to see how a 2.55 hit over only two years is big. As a 24-yo, Ray was given fairly tough minutes (largely, should be noted, with Kesler), and he did very well.
by Passive Voice on Jul 28, 2010 11:34 AM PDT up reply actions
As an Oiler fan in Vancouver, I thought this was a very good signing for the Canucks. I know that the Nilsson experience has soured a lot of us on paying a guy for one year, but after seeing what MacArthur got in arbitration, I suspect Raymond would have done quite well. His platform season looks an awful lot like the one that got Zherdev 4 mil. I recognize that he doesn’t have the same kind of track record or pedigree, but it seems to me that an award north of 3 million would have been fairly likely.
Now there’s some potential that something like that would force the Canucks to walk away from the award and Raymond would end up like Dumont did a couple years back (taking a UFA deal worth about half of his arbitration award) but it seems to me that the signing itself is very solid.
Other than his dirty hit on Smid, Raymond has impressed me as a fast-developing part of Vancouver’s future. I’d rather be rolling the dice $2 MM at a time on second-contract guys like Raymond or Brule, then pouring big term @ big cap hit into some guy already on the shady side of 30, thank you very much. Easier to buy out in a worst-case scenario, too: note how POS and Nilsson are already gone whereas Sheldon Elephant remains in the room. ;)
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 28, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Assuming they can move Souray they should see if Toronto will bite on a Cogliano for Kaberle deal. Two things crossed off the list.
Gagner’s contract CANNOT be a 3 or a 4 year deal, because Gagner gains control over his own destiny with a 3 or 4 year contract.
He is 4 years away from UFA status. 3 years (and opting for arbitration) gets him to UFA status.
So it is 2 years or a really long term deal. Since his established level of play is still a moving target, a long term deal is probably impossible, so it has to be a two-year deal.
Both sides were waiting to get a better handle of where the 2-year term market is. I think we are looking at 2 years @ $2.75 mil per season plus/minus 250K.
I agree with you, but I think it’s important to realize that Gagner is in control of his destiny regardless. If he’s signed for two years and is adamant he wants to test the market, he can pretty much force the Oilers to give him a two-year deal or two one-year deals. If they won’t do it, I doubt he’d have much trouble getting an offer sheet to force the situation.
Personally, I hope they can find a way to go long-term (something between seven and twelve years) and keep the cap hit at $4M or less.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 28, 2010 8:31 AM PDT up reply actions
I suggest an 80-year, $120 MM deal which will keep the average cap hit at an affordable $1.5 MM.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 28, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
why? I am not much for this “model” franchise flavour of the week but if I had to choose I would take the Hawks over Atlanta. You can’t be in permanent re-building mode and expect to win anything.
The Oilers have more young guys slated to make the big club and sitting in the minors to realistically give them a fair chance of developing. They need(ed) to cull the herd and to a large extent that was done but clearly they also don’t see Cogs as a vital component moving forward.
Kaberle gives them a decent to good D core for a year and makes the team alot better/competitive which is obviously good for everyone. Maybe he fits in very nicely with Smid and Hemsky and decides he wants to stay and improves their chances of wanting to stay. Let’s say it doesn’t happen. You trade him at the deadline and I would bet the return is as good or better then you get for Cogs.
Are you of like mind with the rational for trading Cogs? If so who would you trade him for?
The question in my mind isn’t why the Oilers would do the deal it is why the Leafs would. Likely they would not but given he is from the Toronto area and is well liked by the local (ie. TSN) media and thought to be under utilized in Edmonton the Leafs might bite. Oh ya. And the fact they have an egomaniac running the team who has never met a microphone he doesn’t like….
You trade him at the deadline and I would bet the return is as good or better then you get for Cogs.
I think this point is very important. Realistically, Andrew Cogliano is probably worth a second round pick at this point, which is likely the kind of thing you’d get for Kaberle at the deadline. I agree with you that Toronto is probably looking for something more than Cogliano is a Kaberle deal.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 28, 2010 8:35 AM PDT up reply actions
Hey guys, I have been reading the C&B for a while now and I think you all do a great job.
One thing has been bugging me that you never discuss…Why don’t we use cogs in a package to try to get Savard from boston. is he not a value contract that we should covet?
I new it was a long contract but i guess I didn’t pay attention to how old he was. I was thinking (and still do) that we would get more than 1 or 2 value years out of it.
Which value contracts do you think we should try to get from some Capstrapped team in exchange for taking on some current relief.
There are some nice moves here, and there may be a glimmer of hope coming from Rexall, but as I said above, this was all low-hanging fruit.
I agree there are some nice moves, but I disagree with your characterization of them all as “low hanging fruit”. e.g. Trading for Colin Fraser and getting him quickly signed and presumably happy for two years at $825 K, is a real solid sequence of steps in my view. Of course Fraser was likely being shopped, but Tambellini beat whomever else to the punch and got him for cheap, then signed on the cheap.
But I guess all fruit is low-hanging once it’s been plucked and safely stowed in the basket.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
You think $825k is on the cheap — what about his history makes you think he deserves significantly more than that?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
In general terms, I think any time you can get an Actual NHL Player under contract for less than a million bucks, that’s on the cheap in my book. The key point being the guy has to fill a need on your club. Fraser fills several, at least in theory.
In terms specific to Fraser, at the time Oilers got him, I wrote:
Tambellini and Fraser did get ’er done, a week later Colin signed for a little less than my suggested figure(s), and for two years. Which in my books is a good, smart bet, but not exactly low-hanging fruit.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 28, 2010 11:19 PM PDT up reply actions
Wasn’t the Brodziak trade a Steve Tambellini faux pas? Brodziak was traded last June, and I’m pretty sure Tambo was hired as the GM the summer before.
Nono, remember the “Now I’m in charge” speech after the 18 months of analysis? He was just learning at that point – it was still Kevin Lowe’s show.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It comes down to personal preference :)
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t think there’s a way to determine that.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

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