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Edmonton's Top 25 Under 25 - #13 Zack Stortini

Where you stand on Zack Stortini says a lot about how you evaluate young players.

At the tender age of twenty-four (until September, anyway: this will be Zack's last appearance on the Top 25 Under 25), Stortini is a fairly good fourth liner. No special teams ability, but he can play against another team's fourth line with a collection of absolute scrubs beside him and get results. He's shown some modest ability against third-line opposition. And whatever value a scrapper who'll stick up for his teammates is to a team, Stortini can provide. He's big, strong, sturdy, affable, and intelligent. He's the sort of player you'd like even if he stank, and he by no means stinks.

That's also all he's probably ever going to be. In 2009-10, he was a slight improvement on the sort of player he was in 2008-09, which in turn was a slight improvement over the type of player he was in 2007-08. There's nothing to get excited about in Zack Stortini. 224 games into his NHL career, we know what we're going to get: five-ish goals a season, absolute reliability so long as he's playing within his limits, and some fights against fellow heavyweights that don't exactly remind one of Dave Brown but are tidy tilts all the same.

Nothing wrong with any of that. But do you mark him low for having the potential of a fourth liner, or mark him high for proving he can reach it - indeed, that he already has? Chris Vande Velde, in an ideal world, will be a third-line centre someday, but he certainly isn't right now and might never become one, so is he above or below Stortini? How about Linus Omark? Maybe he's a miniature Swedish scoring sensation, or maybe he's all smoke and no fire, another Tony Salmelainen? We won't know, and cannot possibly know, until the next season rolls out. So it comes down to where you set your priorities.

Me, I'm taking the devil I know. And that's why Zack Stortini was seventh on my board and thirteenth on our Top 25 Under 25.

Star-divide


RankPlayer DOBDraftedYearBen
Bruce
Derek
JonScott
13 Zack Stortini
9/11/85
94 2003
7 11 18 14 14

You will not, I think, be shocked to see that Bruce and I have ranked Stortini better than any of our fellows. But I am a late convert to the School of Stortini, having this winter ranked Stortini twenty-fourth. My logic then was the same as it is now, only in reverse: players like Stortini are a dime a dozen and what hope is there he'll advance beyond that? Zorg blows an ACL or gets too big for his britches and demands $15 million a year, oh no, I guess we have to sign another player like him for the league minimum, my god will the NHL survive?

But my esteem for Stortini has grown on a few levels. First off, anyone who can go through the meat grinder of the 2009-10 Edmonton Oilers and emerge seventy-seven games later looking better than before has earned my respect. Second, the more I think about it the less convinced I am that players like Stortini are all that common. When I think about fourth-line guys I think about Radek Dvorak, Blair Betts, what I hope Liam Reddox will be in a few years. Perfectly effective, occasionally even outscorers. I from time to time think of guys like Rob Schremp or what Robert Nilsson ought to have been, which is to say even strength sinkholes that make up for it on special teams. When I comb the NHL looking for hard-nose players who hit, fight, and don't take no guff, but who also outplay their adversaries on the hockey end of the equation, and aren't the sorts of star players with gaudy fan clubs and big contracts, the list gets awful short awful fast.

As Scott Howson and Ethan Moreau have shown us, there'll always be a market for a guy with a bit of jam on his crust even if his best days are so far behind him you'd need a jet to get back. Derek Boogaard's accountant could explain at length how toughness and truculence get paid far more than they're actually worth. Stortini's combination of both of these attributes, alongside his non-trivial hockey playing ability, starts to look diabolically good by comparison. Let's hope that nobody ever figures out the true value of these sorts of players.

Obviously, Stortini isn't as valuable as guys like Andrew Cogliano, Sam Gagner, or even Gilbert Brule. The potential of Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall, and Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson also put them well ahead. But drop down a step, into that second rung of prospects where far more players will hit than miss. For every Shawn Horcoff there are many more Brian Swansons. Zack Stortini is already there, already competing, and already succeeding. Even if he does not get one lick better than he is today, in five years he'll certainly be more than the thirteenth-best player on this list. So that's why I'm ranking Zack so highly. The devil we know, in this case, is actually pretty good.

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Whats not to like.

Zorg would be welcome on any team in the league in his 4th line RW role at a low cap hit. If he can continue to add some tools in his arsenal he can be a great value added player for his dollars.

Things I would like to see him improve on
- more Steve Ott, Dan Carcillo like a##hole / agitator on ice. Less GG, Bougard heavyweight. Fighters don’t add value to a team, agitators do.
- see if he can find a role on the PK on the 2nd or 3rd FW pairing. This group needs help and hasn’t added any in the off season so far.

by Matt.N on Jul 23, 2010 11:26 AM PDT reply actions  

I think Stortini does a very good job at walking the fine line between agitator who picks his spots and agitator who gets tossed into the box on a routine basis.

Carcillo right now is borderline, and he’s probably about a season away from having a giant target painted on his back by the officials. If you can play hard, draw penalties and stay out of the box yourself (at least in terms of giving the other team PP’s) then I think you are doing a pretty good job in that role.

by dawgbone98 on Jul 23, 2010 2:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

The other thing about Carcillo and Ott is the offensive ability and ice time that allows them to be more of an agitator then Zorg. First line, and upper level second line, players will not engage with a Zorg that plays virtually no special teams and little 5on5 time. While they are likely to see more of an Ott or a Carcillo because these players have the ability to play on lines that can successfully defend or outscore top lines. Until Zorg becomes more valuable to the Oilers so that he sees more ice time, then only people he will be able to agitate is the 4th and 3rd liner on the opposition.

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jul 23, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I actually thought Storts would have been one slot higher. I guess in the end he just didn’t have enough Hart and/or Finnish.

I absolutely love this string of articles. I signed up specifically to thank you, and this… would be that.

by CDA on Jul 23, 2010 12:04 PM PDT reply actions  

I’m not saying Derek rigged the poll im Hartikainen’s favour. But if I did say that, would you be surprised?

Thanks for signing up, though, and thanks for your thanks.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 23, 2010 1:23 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

As for Hartikainen, there were only four players who had a closer cluster of rankings, so I’m not alone.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 23, 2010 2:26 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess in the end he just didn’t have enough Hart and/or Finnish.

So few of them do.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 23, 2010 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I guess this article is as good a place as any to ask, given Ben’s comments within.

It seems like you’re using some combination of upside along with the likelyhood of reaching that upside, but how are you accounting for “value”, if at all?

Does a guy like Gagner “lose points” since he’s only under team control for 4 more years, while Paajarvi/Eberle/Hall all have 7 seasons left? Or is that left out here?

by hockeysymposium on Jul 23, 2010 7:18 PM PDT reply actions  

It’s a collection of ranks from each of us, and we all rank the players using different methodologies. I’ve used kind of an average of four different “categories” to come up with my ranking.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 23, 2010 8:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don’t know if answers from each of us will help but I do my rankings based on answering the same question over and over:

“If these two players were restricted free agents and were traded for one another, which player would you rather have?”

So while it doesn’t take contracts into account, it does take time to UFA, although if I’m honest, that’s often not a huge factor in my decision.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 23, 2010 9:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I have a hard time penalizing a guy just because he goes unrestricted more quickly. Four years is still a long time, in a guy like Gagner’s case. I might use it as a tiebreaker but not as a main factor – I’m much more interested in ranking the value of the player than the value of his potential future contracts except in obvious cases (like Stortini!) where it seems the player tends to be underpaid.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 23, 2010 10:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Being a man of scientific bent I went with the tried and not-so-true methodology of pulling rankings out of my ass. The overriding principle (using the term loosely) was, who do I think has the best NHL career left? So years tied to the Oilers weren’t a big factor. My tendency was to likely overvalue guys who have proven they can play in the league as more likely to keep playing in the league as opposed to second-level prospects who have no guarantees of even making it. I discussed this a little bit in my blurb on Stortini the last time we did a Top 25 Under 25 series.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 24, 2010 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

When someone rates Stortini higher than Bruce did, there is something wrong. Halfway into the article, I realized that this wasnt Bruce writing and it was indeed Ben. So after the jump, I expected things like sorry guys I was stoned or something like that. But well, Ben you defended your choice well and I dont think I can counter it. If current performance is given much higher points than potential, then Stortini deserves to be where he is ranked

If everyone thinks that a player is underrated, then he ceases to be one.

by SumOil on Jul 24, 2010 7:38 AM PDT reply actions  

I would never apologize for being stoned!

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 24, 2010 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

apologize for writing when stoned ;)

If everyone thinks that a player is underrated, then he ceases to be one.

by SumOil on Jul 24, 2010 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

He wouldn’t even be able to write the apology.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 24, 2010 11:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

If current performance is given much higher points than potential, then Stortini deserves to be where he is ranked

I’m just curious if you mean 13th (the group ranking) or 7th (Ben’s ranking) here.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 24, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions  

7th… 13th is about right.

If everyone thinks that a player is underrated, then he ceases to be one.

by SumOil on Jul 24, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 82 49 28 5 103
Colorado 82 43 30 9 95
Calgary 82 40 32 10 90
Minnesota 82 38 36 8 84
Edmonton 82 27 47 8 62

(updated 4.12.2010 at 6:21 AM PDT)

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:23)

Gilbert (22:24)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:24)

Visnovsky (17:14)

Points:

Penner (63)

Visnovsky (32)

Goals:

Penner (32)

Visnovsky (10)

Assists:

Penner (31)

Gilbert (23)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.152)

Smid (.090)

Shots:

Penner (203)

Gilbert (96)

Corsi/15:

Penner(.405)

Visnovsky (.460)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.241)

Visnovsky (4.517)

SCA/15:

Stortini (3.850)

Gilbert (4.360)

SCDiff/15:

Penner (.448)

Visnovsky (.122)

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