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What About the Back End?

Yesterday concluded with a look at what the Oilers have done and still need to do with their forward group.  With a goodly portion of the forward group from a year ago departing and the addition of Colin Fraser to the bottom of the roster, the top and bottom end of the forward group is now set.  Steve Tambellini could still use a few veterans for his middle six forwards, but he has the money to go and get that help should he choose to do so (let it be so).  But what about the back end?  The last two days have seen the Oilers add Jim Vandermeer through trade and Kurtis Foster as a free agent.  After the jump, I'll take a look at the defense and goaltending as a whole and talk a bit about what the Oilers can do now that most of the best free agent defenders have already signed with other teams.

Star-divide

As usual, I'll give my cap guideline first followed by how the Oilers actual contracts compare.  Here's the guideline:

 

Top 4 Defenders - 27.5% or $16,335,000
Bottom 4 Defenders - 7.5% or $4,455,000
Goaltenders - 10.0% or $5,940,000

And now here are the Oilers:

Top 4 Defenders - Whitney, Gilbert, Souray, ??? - 22.3% or $13,400,000
Bottom 4 Defenders - Vandermeer, Foster, Smid, ??? - 9.1% or $5,400,000
Goaltenders - Khabibulin, ???, ??? - 6.3% or $3,750,000

My preferred method for dealing with the goaltending problem would be to sign an average NHL goalie for $1.5M per season and risk waivers on the two young guys but that doesn't seem likely.  Instead, the Oilers will give the back-up role to one of Dubnyk or Deslauriers - hopefully Dubnyk - for something around $0.8M.  My one request in that case is for the Oilers to use a part of their NHL budget on a third goalie who they plan to send down to Oklahoma City but who can step in and play if Khabibulin gets injured.  I'd also like to add a third goaltender who will be playing in the AHL but who has some NHL pedigree in case Khabibulin gets injured, something similar to the contract the Canadiens gave to Curtis Sanford yesterday.  One candidate who remains available is Yann Danis who may be willing to sign what would essentially be a $0.7M contract to play in the AHL. Those two goalies would then combine for something around $1.5M and provide the team with some legitimate security.

Now, the defense.  The two new players have a couple of things in common: they're big and they're no hell at evens.  As a third pairing, they're actually very good, but I wouldn't want them playing more than that.  In fact, starting the year with Vandermeer as the seventh man would be my preference.  And it could happen, with just one more signing.  In theory, this part of the roster is further away from done than that.  The trade winds continue to blow at the name of Sheldon Souray but after seeing so many superior defenders sign for less money, I wonder about what kind of trade value Souray could possibly have.  The only defender who signed yesterday for more than Souray's cap hit of $5.4M was Sergei Gonchar at $5.5M and a lot of the players who signed for less are a lot better than Sheldon. All of these rumblings that lead nowhere also serve to increase my skepticism.  So far we've heard that Souray was going to move at the deadline, then at the draft, and then on July 1st once his no-trade clause expired, but each time he's stayed an Oiler.  More and more, it seems like Souray may be back in Edmonton to start the season, if only to prove that he's healthy and able to play at a high level.  Hopefully, for everyone's sake, those two things will end up being true if Souray is still here in October. 

Assuming Souray may not be moving, that leaves the Oilers with just two slots and about $2.6M to spend.  The Oilers are likely to spend about $0.7M of that on Theo Peckham who would need to clear waivers to hit Oklahoma City, so he's probably staying.  That leaves only $1.9M to spend on a guy who can play top four minutes, which seems like a tall order.  I'm not certain that  it will be quite enough cash, but one guy who has had some recent success with tough minutes, who's still young, and is flying way under the radar is former New Jersey defenseman Mike Mottau.  Of course, the Oilers may be able to offer him a bit more if they can move Souray and retrieve some cap space in the process.  At this point, I'll believe that's a sure thing when I see it.

Poll
What are the odds of Sheldon Souray coming to Oilers' training camp?
0%
86 votes
Less than 10%
51 votes
Less than 25%
34 votes
Less than 50%
29 votes
50% or HIgher
39 votes

239 votes | Poll has closed

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Comments

Display:

I just voted NO

“From the end of the season to the Colin Fraser signing, has Steve Tambellini done a good job?”

A couple of posts ago, you had up the Tambo Poll
I hadn’t voted.
I have now.
TSN is reporting the Oilers have signed Strudwick.

Stupidity is still rampant at Oilers HQ

by Mr DeBakey on Jul 2, 2010 8:53 AM PDT reply actions  

We can never allow ourselves to forget this. Tambellini has some good personnel under him but he fundamentally does not know how to win a hockey game.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 2, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

Whoa, whoa, whoa! Voting based on something that happened after the Fraser signing ignores the question! But, uh, yeah… signing Strudwick is dumb.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 2, 2010 9:01 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, i was just making sure, but Strudwick is terrible right?

Not even the Toronto Maple Leafs could kill my optimism

Tyler Ennis: Freed from Portland!

by Ubiquitous on Jul 2, 2010 9:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, no. He’s much worse than that.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 2, 2010 9:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

He’s almost as bad as O’Sullivan at a quarter of the money.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 2, 2010 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

He’s gone! It’s over! You can let him go now! Geez!

(P.S.: Fernando Pisani, Marc Pouliot.)

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 2, 2010 10:53 AM PDT up reply actions  

Can someone explain the logic of giving away souray? Tsn reports he’s on waivers!!! My gut says bad but my brain says there’s a logic to this that I simply cannot understand…

by shepso on Jul 2, 2010 9:52 AM PDT reply actions  

seems pretty straightforward. Nobody would give up anything decent, or wanted to offset his bloat with some of their own. There’s a small chance he’ll be grabbed off waivers, but he’ll almost certainly be taken on re-entry. Cap savings + farewell to another bad K. Lowe signing.

by K Marshall on Jul 2, 2010 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions  

Souray was covering the bet until he got hurt and so sick of Oilers incompetence that he demanded a trade.

He wasn’t a good signing, but he wasn’t bad. Certainly not “he had one injury-prone season so let’s suck up $2.7 million in cap space to lose him on re-entry waivers” bad.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 2, 2010 10:20 AM PDT up reply actions  

That’s what I was thinking. Fortunately he only goes to re-entry if the oilers reassign him to okc. Otherwise it’s just clearing waivers and he’s still team property, just probably a bit angrier than before. If someone picks him up, there’s 5.4 mil in cap space to try for Jurcina and maybe a nice 3C like Belanger. Either way, I’d much rather trade him for something then lose him for nothing and have no guarantee of a decent 3/4D or other useful part coming back but all things being equal, I don’t hate it as much as I first thought.

by shepso on Jul 2, 2010 10:33 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

The only problem is that “until he got hurt” was >50% of Oiler games since he’s been here. Two injury-prone seasons out of three plus a long track record of injury do not give me much confidence that he’s a value play.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 2, 2010 10:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

When he came back from concussion, he was shadow of his former self. Barely got off one real slapper all year.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jul 2, 2010 11:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree. His season was screwed on October 8.

Too bad, cuz the ’08-09 Souray was a force to be reckoned with.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 2, 2010 11:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good post, Scott, though you have a typo glitch with your first reference to Peckham you’ll want to fix.

With Strudwick’s signing, it’s evident Peckham and Vandermeer are the third pairing. That’s kind of scary, I admit. They are tough as hell, but that looks to be a hurting unit, though better than Chorney/Strudwick (whis is, I know, damning with the faintest praise imaginable).

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jul 2, 2010 10:14 AM PDT reply actions  

Thanks David. I’ll fix the glitch right away. I actually think (hope) that the Oilers will sign another top four defender and make Smid-(???) the second pairing to go along with a third pairing of Foster-Vandermeer, which is actually a pretty darn good third pairing. Of course, injuries will come and Strudwick or Peckham will find their way into the lineup, but I don’t mind those guys at 7th and 8th on the depth chart.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 2, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, Strudwick stayed at #7 for all of two games last year, and then got a week off about 50 games later. That’s the scary part, your #7 guy is likely to play > half the games.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 2, 2010 10:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Very true. I guess my thinking is that Peckham is the #7 guy and that it will be useful to see whether or not he can play a role at the NHL level going forward. I think Strudwick is the swing-man this year, 8D/14F kind of thing.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 2, 2010 10:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

I was thinking of Strudwick and Chorney as a solid third pairing … in OKC.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 2, 2010 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

I can accept Struds in that role, 8th deman/14th winger. If the goal is to make playoffs, team needs one more NHL d-man to team with Smid. But that’s hard to find.

Grebehskov!

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jul 2, 2010 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Souray on Waivers!!!

by SumOil on Jul 2, 2010 10:14 AM PDT reply actions  

Gilbert-Whitney
Foster-Smid
Peckham-Vandermeer
Strudwick

Is there room to bring in one more veteran NHL/AHL free agent dman. If so, who is he?

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jul 2, 2010 10:21 AM PDT reply actions  

2nd pairing – 2nd pairing
3rd pairing – 2nd pairing
AHL – press box
retired

I think there’s room for improvement there.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 2, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

we signed richard petiot ….
AHL siging?

by SumOil on Jul 2, 2010 10:33 AM PDT up reply actions  

Must be. And a good AHL signing at that.

by shepso on Jul 2, 2010 10:35 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

27 years old, 13 career NHL games, modest but not very successful minor league career. Strictly depth/OKC fodder.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 2, 2010 10:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

Do I win?

Taylor Chorney for $500, Wink

by Mr DeBakey on Jul 2, 2010 10:34 AM PDT up reply actions  

Clark, Brett
Mitchell, Willie
Grebeshkov, Denis
Jones, Randy
Pothier, Brian
Eaton, Mark
Morrisonn, Shaone
Mara, Paul
Jurcina, Milan
Colaiacovo, Carlo
Lilja, Andreas
Weaver, Mike

by Mr DeBakey on Jul 2, 2010 10:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good list. I’d include Freddy Meyer.
I also like Grebs, Jones, Colaiacover, Morrisonn, Jurcina.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Jul 2, 2010 11:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 82 49 28 5 103
Colorado 82 43 30 9 95
Calgary 82 40 32 10 90
Minnesota 82 38 36 8 84
Edmonton 82 27 47 8 62

(updated 4.12.2010 at 6:21 AM PDT)

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:23)

Gilbert (22:24)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:24)

Visnovsky (17:14)

Points:

Penner (63)

Visnovsky (32)

Goals:

Penner (32)

Visnovsky (10)

Assists:

Penner (31)

Gilbert (23)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.152)

Smid (.090)

Shots:

Penner (203)

Gilbert (96)

Corsi/15:

Penner(.405)

Visnovsky (.460)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.241)

Visnovsky (4.517)

SCA/15:

Stortini (3.850)

Gilbert (4.360)

SCDiff/15:

Penner (.448)

Visnovsky (.122)

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