Edmonton's Top 25 Under 25 - #17 Devan Dubnyk
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 19, 2010 10:30 AM PDT
in Prospects
26 comments
In spite of what Obi-Wan Kenobi tells us, trusting your feelings is generally a bad thing. There's a phenomenon pilots know that's referred to as a "graveyard spin": basically, it's when the plane you're flying starts spinning and over time your body adjusts so when you correct the spin, you feel like you're spinning in the other direction. If you trust what your instinct tells you instead of looking at your instruments, you will crash. If you behave rationally rather than emotionally, using data rather than gut feeling, you'll probably be fine.
There's a good cautionary lesson there for us all. Indeed, the most significant change in sports for the last thirty years has been the shift away from watching the game and towards watching the numbers as the most respected method of talent evaluation. Men and women who have grown sick of their teams smashing their aircraft into the dirt and want them to look at their instruments once in a while, which has provided us with more useful and intelligent data than we have ever had before.
The NHL data on Devan Dubnyk is pretty miserable. We see he has a 3.57 goals against average, an .889 save percentage, no shutouts - numbers that might have been acceptable in 1984, but not today. His save percentage came in twelve points behind Jeff Deslauriers, who has earned a reputation as one of the worst goaltenders in the entire universe. Of all goaltenders in the NHL last season to play more than fifteen games Devan Dubnyk's save percentage was fourth-worst, behind three goalies I wouldn't trust to stop traffic.
So now I'm flying blind, because I'm going to tell you why Devan Dubnyk is a legitimate NHL prospect anyway.
One does not have to defy all the numbers to mount a defense of Devan Dubnyk. Despite not playing with a .500 team since the 2005-06 Stockton Thunder, Dubnyk's minor league numbers have always been solid with the exception of one year in Springfield and he's still only 23 years old. Last year, Dubnyk played 33 games in Springfield and had a .915 save percentage, with Jean-Philippe Levasseur coming second on the team with .896. We cannot forget how terrible those teams were, and for Devan to be a decent part of them in those contexts counts heavily in his favour.
His problem last season in the NHL was more lack of consistency than lack of skill. In four of his nineteen games he allowed five goals or more, which is bad but the small sample size leaves us to question whether it's because Dubnyk stinks or whether the combination of an awful team and a young goaltender caused problems. Towards the end of the year, Dubnyk appeared to round into form: five of his last seven games had save percentages over .935, with a combined save percentage of .921. Again, a short sample size, but it's a convincing rally after a start to his career that is best condemned to the obscurity of nightmares.
A .921 save percentage is obviously higher than any of us can expect from Dubnyk. It's higher than any of his AHL or junior seasons, for example. But is it too much to say that a young man, thrust into an NHL role he wasn't ready for by the unanticipated injury to an aging injury-prone goaltender, might play a few stinkers before he starts to show off his true talent? This is where I have to depart from numerical orthodoxy, for I must make an argument that it seems impossible for statistics to oppose or support. I think his real level of play is closer to his later numbers than his earlier pnes. He just looks like he should be a goaltender. There are no massive areas of weakness, like Deslauriers' rebound control and ability to get lost in his own crease, which just scream "this guy is going to be flirting with .900 his entire career". Maybe his glove could be a bit quicker, or his puckhandling a little more accurate, but no goaltender has ever been perfect except Curtis Joseph.
So that's why I put Dubnyk in the top ten. We remember the awful, but I think the good is more representative of how Dubnyk can play. Certainly I'd take him over Deslauriers (and if the contract situation is any indication, so would the Oilers). I'm more optimistic for Dubnyk's future than I am any of our non-blue chip prospects. This may make me crazy, but crazy optimistic is a nice change of pace.
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Wow – Derek, Scott, Dubnyk at 26 or 21? That puts him lower than numerous prospects who have next to no chance of playing in the NHL. Despite the reservations we all have about his abilities, we can be fairly sure Dubnyk is going to get a shot to prove himself in the NHL this year and there’s a good chance he remains as at least the Oilers backup for a couple of years. Seems a little harsh to put him so far down, no? Of course, it is hard to place goaltenders on a list like this. An apples and oranges kind of scenario.
Both Scott and Derek hate goalies.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 19, 2010 2:07 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, last year Dubnyk was below replacement level if you take his performance as a whole. Just playing in the NHL isn’t worth much as far as I’m concerned, especially for a goalie. You actually need to be decent. My bet is that Dubnyk has a comparable (and slightly worse) chance at providing value at the NHL level than the guys I have ranked immediately ahead of him. And I hope the guys ranked ahead of him have better than “next to no chance of playing in the NHL.” The five guys I have immediately ahead of him are Peckham, Cornet, Marincin, Hamilton, and Martindale. Are those guys great bets? No, but they are real prospects. And that’s pretty much what I think of Dubnyk too.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2010 2:37 PM PDT up reply actions
A year ago, Dubnyk was well behind Deslauriers. Now, because of six games, he should be a legit NHL goaltender? I wish Dubnyk luck in making it, but I’m not convinced yet.
On a side note – people that want to go into the season with Khabibulin and Dubnyk and actually want to win are insane.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
A year ago, Dubnyk wasn’t well behind Deslauriers. Not really. Neither of them were ready, and Deslauriers was slightly less unready on account of superior NHL experience.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 19, 2010 3:21 PM PDT up reply actions
A whopping ten games of it.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Like I said. “Slightly less unready.”
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 19, 2010 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions
I’m sure this has come up before but I can’t remember: is Dubnyk vulnerable to being picked up on waivers if he were sent to the A to start the season? I know he’s on a one way contract, yet that only means that he’s getting paid his $800K no matter where he plays, as far as I can tell.
In my mind, especially if he is a legitimate prospect (which I think he is), it makes much better sense to send him down and give him a chance to develop his skills and maybe dominate before being forced to pitch to big-league hitters in the show. This would also give Deslauriers another chance with Edmonton, which there’s little harm in doing to start the season. Keeping the long view in mind, it would be better to let both players have as many opportunities as possible, especially considering that this is a development year when only starry-eyed fans give the Oil a chance to be truly competitive.
This idea is also based on the premise that Khabibulin is able to play at the start of the year, of course. Even if he’s not, I’d be happy to see a low cost veteran signed to platoon with Deslauriers on the big club and let Dubnyk master his trade with shelter from the spotlight. Without waiver issues, he could come up and down to fill in for injuries, too.
First off, remember: EXTREME DUI.
Second, unless I very much miss my memory Dubnyk is waiver-eligible so the point is moot. I’d rather bury Khabibulin in Stockton than lose Dubnyk or Deslauriers.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 19, 2010 1:51 PM PDT up reply actions
Nothing I write can ever be as funny as the phrase “EXTREME DUI”.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 19, 2010 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions
It’s a shame that DD can’t get down to the Barons without the risk of being lost. I’m convinced it would be the best place for him at this point, regardless of the rest of the goaltending depth in the franchise.
With his dismal numbers in the NHL last season and the availability of so many goalies on the market, what would be the degree of risk in sending him down, in your opinion? (Benjamin, Pat, or whoever?) At $800K there are likely to be many many others available who would be of better immediate help, and two teams that might pick him partially due to grudges, Toronto and Buffalo, would both be better served to keep the tenders that are already under contract at the NHL level: Giguerre and Gustavsson, and Miller and the newly signed Lalime.
Yeah, this is probably a crazy line of thought, but putting a developing player in the best possible position to succeed should be a top priority, IMO.
There are a lot of goaltenders on the market, but not necessarily a lot of young ones. It wouldn’t surprise me if a bottom half team – a Columbus, an Atlanta – took a flyer on Dubnyk at no cost beyond a quite reasonable salary.
by Benjamin Massey on Jul 19, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions
Unfortunately, I think you’re right.
Equally unfortunate is that Dubnyk might be one of the players who suffers the most from the mismanagement of the development program over the past few years. How can a goalie be expected to develop into an NHL starter if he hasn’t had the opportunity to do it in another professional league? This was compounded by the ongoing fiasco of Khabibulin’s signing, not to mention the decision not to bring in a stop gap veteran once he got hurt last year. This has all been written about before but Dubnyk has been amongst the most poorly managed assets of the Oilers.
In what way was Dubnyk poory managed?
His first pro year he was the starting goalie in the ECHL.
His second pro year he was an AHL backup who got in 30+ games.
His 3rd Pro year he was a full-fledged AHL starter.
It seems like a pretty good way to bring a goaltender along.
I’ve got to agree with dawgbone here. Dubnyk’s career path seems pretty normal for a reasonable prospect. I’m not too sure if Dubnyk would get claimed off of waivers. The examples given (Columbus, Atlanta) both have two goalies with one young guy who’s been better than Dubnyk. There actually aren’t too many spots for him to land. That said, there probably aren’t none and someone might be willing to carry three goalies. There’s a reasonable chance that he gets picked up if they try to send him down.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2010 5:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Me too. By far it was JDD who got the raw deal by the org’s bizarre decision to shut down its own bloody farm team for two years following the lockout. The only effect on DD was that JDD was the guy ahead of him in the system, and since he had gotten bottlenecked it backed everything up to a certain extent.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 19, 2010 8:13 PM PDT up reply actions
I do think DD would get claimed off of waivers in a New York minute.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Jul 19, 2010 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions
Ed Zachery
In a sense Dubnyk’s had the perfect career path.
The guy who done got screwed was Deslauriers – third stringer on someone else’s AHL team and so forth
I don’t think DD’s little spurt at the end of last season proves much – not much at all.
The question with JDD and DD is not if they’ll become NHLers, but rather WHEN might they become NHLers.
DUI+JDD+DD remains a recipe for a lottery pick.
And, most importantly, Scott Munroe has allowed only 231 goals on 3024 shots over the past two AHL seasons. Do the right thing Tambilowni!
In defense of my position that Dubnyk has been mismanaged as a developing player, first of all let me say that it’s only an opinion. By no means would I suggest that it’s entirely justified, but here are my reasons for it.
Yes, he had the opportunity to work his way onto an AHL team, and strictly by the progression of playing time it looks to be by the books. Upon closer examination, though, it was one of the most poorly managed farm teams of the past decade, and I would argue that a young goalie is in the most vulnerable position to be harmed by playing behind such a team. In this sense, the whole development system failed him by not providing a suitable AHL atmosphere for him to play in.
Furthermore, last season should have been a critical stage of his development. Most North American goalies who break through to become successful players in the NHL have one season where they dominate in the AHL first (there are simply too many examples to bother listing a few). 09/10 should have been that season for him, but the Falcons were one of the worst teams in years – not just last year – and he didn’t even get the chance to play behind them as much as he should have due to the mismanagement of the goaltending situation at the NHL level. (I include the signing of Khabibulin in this claim, and the fact that he wasn’t replaced by somebody after he was injured.) A .915 save percentage is impressive, especially with the 09/10 Falcons, yet a full season starting with a competitive team probably would have increased that statistic significantly and built up his confidence further with it, too.
I agree with Bruce and Ed that Deslauriers had it worse than Dubnyk, but does that really mean that DD was put in a position to succeed? Sitting on the bench for three quarters of an NHL season and then getting shelled the odd time that he was put on the ice probably set him back rather than helped him to develop, and I can’t see any reasonable argument for how last season was useful to him. If he’s going to be good enough to play in the NHL, the argument that he got a chance to break in and learn about the league simply doesn’t cut it: it was too soon (in my opinion) on a team that was too shitty and without a starter in front of him with many lessons to offer.
I agree with Andrew here. Both my sons are goaltenders, so we read / watch a lot of what goes on with them. DD should have been in the AHL for the full season. JDD too, especially when he only played in 15 games the year before.
In my opinion neither JDD or DD were ready for the big show. The problem with JDD is that management has viewed him as the franchise goalie and given his age, it was time for him to be in the Big Show as the backup (the season before last). JDDs games played (AHL+NHL) since Junior: 22, 13, 40, 57, 15, 48, DDs games played: 4, 33, 63, 52.
How does a kid get prepared for playing in the NHL by playing 15 games in a season?
I know you guys dump on JDD for “getting lost in the crease”. But playing only 15 games in a season doesn’t help any goalie.
by HockeyDad16K on Jul 20, 2010 10:02 AM PDT up reply actions
sometimes you have to take risks you cant justify. rookie goalies dont get that many games to start. Lets look at Cory Schnieder, Since Nucks havent signed any NHL capable goalie, he is slated to be the back-up. The workhorse that Loungo is, I doubt Schnieder sees more than 20 games and If the next season Lou is injured, he could be thrusted into the starter role, depending on how well he performs.
Tukka Rask played 40 games in his rookie NHL season.
Steve Mason played 50+ games at the age of 20.
There is no right formula of knowing when a guy is ready. Its a hunch. Sometimes you are right, sometimes you are wrong
The two situations are quite different. I think most here would agree that JDD’s development suffered a lot because he didn’t have a place to play coming out of junior. That doesn’t make him any less brutal (for an NHL goalie), but it is probably one of the reasons he isn’t any good.
Dubnyk is different. The year you have him playing four games he actually played 47. Sure, 43 of them were in the ECHL, but those are still games. His .921 save percentage in that league doesn’t really suggest he was too good for the league either. I’d say that Dubnyk was in a good spot in his first year out of junior. The next year was split duty in the AHL, which is fine, followed by a year as the clear starter. That three-year development program looks good. Then you have last season, which is the last one before he needs to clear waivers. Dubnyk played in 52 games, which is fine, and he got a taste of the NHL which was probably a good idea for the team seeing as they had to make a decision on him. You can make the argument that the Oilers should have had a better team in general at both the NHL and AHL level, but that hasn’t had an impact on the goalies in particular; it’s impacted every player in the organization. I could say that Alex Plante or Johan Motin or Liam Reddox suffered just as much from that as Dubnyk.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions
I’ll add that at the start of last season, JDD was slated to be DUI’s backup. DD was here in Springfield where he had established himself as a decent netminder. IMO, the fiasco stems from Oilers’ management elevating JDD to an NHL starter when he so obviously was not ready for it.
No doubt the Springfield goalies saw kilotons of rubber during the Oilers regime. The previous 2 seasons though, JDD and DD formed a steady tandem. Talk here was that DD was the better keeper, but JDD’s age (and alleged experience) was what elevated him.
In the hindsight game, would an injury-free, DUI-free season changed the playoff status of the Oilers? Probably not. So now, Hall is in town and it appears that the front office is actually making an effort to do the right thing. I still think the goalie situation is muddled though. They might have been better off after the DUI (extreme!) trying to get a legitimate NHL goalie to at least split the time with JDD. It may turn out that they try to send JDD to OKC to start the season and if another team shows the slightest interest, it’s au revoir.
But don’t forget…Steve Valiquette is still available! LOL
by Suffering in Springfield on Jul 20, 2010 3:02 AM PDT reply actions
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