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Ethan Moreau - Beating A Dead Horse

You do that, you go to the box, you know. Two minutes, by yourself, you know and you feel shame, you know. And then dey score on you and you get set free.

You do that, you go to the box, you know. Two minutes, by yourself, you know and you feel shame, you know. And then dey score on you and you get set free.

Ethan Moreau has been ushered out of town, ending his run as captain of the Edmonton Oilers.  Edmonton fans will now hear Kevin Quinn's ridiculous "theexcaptainethanmoreau" call only four times next season, a welcome respite for all.  Moreau's time as captain coincided with the worst three-year run in the history of the franchise.  Was it mere coincidence that the two occurred simultaneously, or was Moreau the victim of bad luck?

Behind The Net Hockey recently looked at the skill of drawing penalties and how that skill correlated to goals for and wins.  The first article focused on penalty differential by position and showed just how valuable Dustin Brown is to the Kings through his ability to draw penalties and not take any himself.  The second was an article on Patrick Kaleta's value solely based on drawing penalties.

In those articles, Desjardins establishes a goals value of .2 for penalties drawn.  Using that value, I set about to find out who were the least valuable players to their respective teams over the last three years of penalties taken to penalties drawn ratios.

Star-divide

Below is a list of the of twenty-five least-valuable players in the NHL based on penalty differential. The final two columns, GDIFF/82 is the goal differential directly attributable to the player over an 82 game season; Wins/S is the number of wins per season that the player costs his team solely based on taking penalties.

 

Totals Taken Drawn TAKE/60 DRAW/60 DIFF/60 GDIFF/82 Wins/S
Ben Eager 45 30 2.063 1.375 -0.688 -1.473 -0.246
Petr Sykora 33 17 0.940 0.484 -0.456 -1.535 -0.256
Jarkko Ruutu 83 61 2.138 1.571 -0.567 -1.562 -0.260
Wayne Primeau 24 12 1.239 0.619 -0.619 -1.562 -0.260
Benoit Pouliot 23 13 1.224 0.692 -0.532 -1.624 -0.271
Chris Clark 31 18 1.353 0.785 -0.567 -1.719 -0.287
Jarret Stoll 66 42 1.547 0.984 -0.562 -1.726 -0.288
Cam Janssen 24 12 2.546 1.273 -1.273 -1.773 -0.295
Robert Lang 47 26 1.217 0.673 -0.544 -1.813 -0.302
Ales Kotalik 52 27 1.197 0.621 -0.575 -1.822 -0.304
Kris Draper 54 27 1.337 0.668 -0.668 -1.968 -0.328
Mike Knuble 64 36 1.267 0.712 -0.554 -1.971 -0.328
Chris Neil 76 51 2.137 1.434 -0.703 -2.092 -0.349
Adam Mair 53 25 1.605 0.757 -0.848 -2.126 -0.354
Jamal Mayers 45 16 1.271 0.452 -0.819 -2.142 -0.357
Eric Godard 37 12 2.722 0.883 -1.839 -2.158 -0.360
Dustin Byfuglien 22 11 1.220 0.610 -0.610 -2.200 -0.367
Donald Brashear 43 18 1.908 0.799 -1.109 -2.291 -0.382
Ryan Getzlaf 83 51 1.464 0.899 -0.564 -2.343 -0.390
Jody Shelley 41 14 2.109 0.720 -1.389 -2.343 -0.390
Colton Orr 61 25 2.212 0.907 -1.306 -2.481 -0.413
Brian Willsie 19 4 1.160 0.244 -0.916 -2.485 -0.414
Ethan Moreau 57 25 1.579 0.693 -0.887 -2.948 -0.491
Evgeny Artyukhin 57 29 2.850 1.450 -1.400 -3.616 -0.603
Raitis Ivanans 67 19 3.049 0.865 -2.184 -3.749 -0.625

 

Moreau keeps company with some beauties at the bottom of this list - Ivanans, Artyukhin, Orr, and Shelley are renown lunkheads and Ryan Getzlaf is a hot-head with the ability to make up for it on the ice.  Of note - there are three players in the bottom ten that were New York Rangers in the last two seasons.  The Rangers are happy to give up wins this way and sometimes it comes back to bite them, like last season when they missed the playoffs by a single win.

That Moreau's ability to lose games simply by taking penalties is in the same class as some world-class goons is not a surprise to Oiler fans.  Moreau took penalties in the offensive zone at an alarming rate and found no reason to take any blame

David Staples looked at Moreau's exit interview and found more of the same.  When asked about moving to Columbus he said:

"It's a good fit.  I'll be used the way I'm supposed to be used. It was definitely time to move on. I need a fresh start. I need a team that's going to use me where I'm most valuable and I don't think that was the case the last few years. And my play suffered because of it. But no regrets."

No remorse, no regrets, just penalty after penalty.  For anyone that follows the Blue Jackets, the numbers above should be taken as a warning -- Moreau's game isn't changing and he's not getting any younger.

By the way, a big thank you to the Calgary Flames for signing Raitis Ivanans, he should be a great help to the rest of the division next season.

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By the way, a big thank you to the Calgary Flames for signing Raitis Ivanans, he should be a great help to the rest of the division next season.

Sigh.

by Kent Wilson on Jul 16, 2010 8:30 AM PDT reply actions  

Don’t worry, Sutter will send him to us for Booger at the deadline.

Camp Tortorella - Where Vomit is a Mainstay

by George E. Ays on Jul 16, 2010 8:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

Best of luck to the Calgary Flames this playoff season.

by Benjamin Massey on Jul 18, 2010 4:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

My one regret in life is that I only have one rec to give to this comment.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jul 16, 2010 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know this is in jest, but Moreau’s penalties may actually be slightly more difficult to kill if anything because Moreau was a regular penalty killer and it forced someone less familiar with the role into more playing time. It’s not going to have a huge effect with a guy like Moreau, but with a better player (like Chara or Lidstrom) the effect is probably substantial.

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 16, 2010 5:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Brown is only valuable in that regard because NHL refs rarely ever call diving.

by zys on Jul 16, 2010 1:43 PM PDT reply actions  

Just curious what you’re using for ice time for these players when you project over 82 games. Is it just their TOI per game projected over 82 games? Also is this a list of forwards, or do forwards just consistently outpace defensemen?

Also, Gabe and I have gone back and forth on this question before (actually in the Kaleta article you linked) but 0.2 goals per penalty drawn and/or taken seems excessive to me. That assumes a replacement level PP scores on one of every five power plays, which I find pretty difficult to believe. I pegged the number at about 0.12 per penalty drawn/taken. That said, any change in that number will only change the total wins created/lost and not the ranking of each player, which means we can all agree that Moreau is really bad!

by Scott Reynolds on Jul 16, 2010 5:18 PM PDT reply actions  

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 82 49 28 5 103
Colorado 82 43 30 9 95
Calgary 82 40 32 10 90
Minnesota 82 38 36 8 84
Edmonton 82 27 47 8 62

(updated 4.12.2010 at 6:21 AM PDT)

Oilers Stats Leaders

Stat

Forwards

Defense

TOI/G:

Horcoff (19:23)

Gilbert (22:24)

ESTOI/G:

Horcoff (14:24)

Visnovsky (17:14)

Points:

Penner (63)

Visnovsky (32)

Goals:

Penner (32)

Visnovsky (10)

Assists:

Penner (31)

Gilbert (23)

EV+/- /15

Penner (.152)

Smid (.090)

Shots:

Penner (203)

Gilbert (96)

Corsi/15:

Penner(.405)

Visnovsky (.460)

SCF/15:

Penner (5.241)

Visnovsky (4.517)

SCA/15:

Stortini (3.850)

Gilbert (4.360)

SCDiff/15:

Penner (.448)

Visnovsky (.122)

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