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2010 NHL Draft Preview - Fishing Holes

About a year ago, Kent Wilson wrote an article which mentioned the tendency of certain teams to draft an atypically large number of players from certain leagues.  The article is actually is actually entitled "The Best Player Available Myth," so that right there should give you an idea of what it's about.  The whole article is well worth a read but I'm going to focus on the following excerpt from that article for today's piece:

"This may be why clubs develop what I call "fishing holes", by which I mean they concentrate their scouting in certain amateur/developmental leagues (for the Flames, it's the WHL/CHL) - they can become familiar with the relative degree and value of the competition and therefore can more capably gauge a prospects level of performance."

Now, the Flames are an extreme example drafting more players from one league (WHL) than any other NHL club but it is true that all teams have their own "fishing holes," i.e. areas where they draft proportionally more players than the rest of the league.  After the jump we'll take a look at the tendencies for all thirty NHL teams.

Star-divide

What I've done in the following charts is taken all of the players selected in the last five NHL entry drafts (2005-2009) and calculated what percentage of draftees were taken from each league.  Here are the percentages for each of the leagues:

Fishing_holes_totals_medium

The next several charts will group teams by division and look at how much their draft tendencies diverge from the NHL norms listed above.  Each chart will be colour-coded with "hot" spots (marked in red) and "cold" spots (marked in blue).  The more pronounced the shading is, the more that team diverges from the league norm.  If the team stays within 2% of the league average, there is no shading, a difference of 2-5% gets light shading, 5-10% more pronounced and 10%+ is brightly coloured.  I'll use the WHL as an example: a team that drafted between 14.01% and 18.01% of their prospects from the WHL receives no shading.  Between 11.01% and 14.01% would be shaded lightly blue, 6.01% and 11.01% a more pronounced blue and anything less than 6.01% bright blue.  Between 18.01% and 21.01% would be shaded lightly red, 21.01% and 26.01% a more pronounced red and 26.01% or more, bright red.

Fishing_holes_pacific_medium

Fishing_holes_northwest_medium

Fishing_holes_central_medium

Fishing_holes_southeast_medium

Fishing_holes_northeast_medium

Fishing_holes_atlantic_medium

One of the fun ways that this data may help is in looking at prospects leading up to the draft.  The Oilers, for instance, have a couple of second round picks and I know that I'll be taking a closer look at the Swedish prospects slated for the second round a bit more closely as we approach the draft.  Here's a quick synopsis of each team's favourite and least favourite spots relative to league average:

Fishing_holes_summary_medium

And now, just a few quick notes on some things I found interesting:

  • The Los Angeles Kings had the most draft picks of any team over the last five years with 46.  They also happen to diverge less from league norms than many of the other clubs.  This should warn us to take the data with a grain of salt, especially the areas that are lightly shaded.  The sample size here just isn't very large.
  • No one had fewer draft picks than the Vancouver Canucks who ended up with only 29.  In that the draft was seven rounds all five years, a team would have 35 picks if they made no trades and always signed their first round picks.
  • Several teams took one player from a less prominent league.  The Thrashers took one player from the Greater Ontario Junior Hockey League, the Bluejackets one from the Manitoba Junior Hockey League, the Avalanche one player from a Norwegian league, the Kings one from the Quebec Junior AAA Hockey League, the Wild one from a Belarussian league, the Devils one from the Atlantic Junior Hockey League, the Rangers one from the Western Ontario Junior B Hockey League and the Maple Leafs one from the Alberta AAA Midget Hockey League.
  • And then there's the Senators.  They selected one player from the Kootneay International Junior Hockey League, one player from a Latvian league and one player from a Canadian high school.  They're also one of two teams - the other is Chicago - who have all three of the CHL leagues as "cold spots."
  • The Boston Bruins, Phoenix Coyotes and New York Rangers drafted 11 Czechs over the last five years.  The rest of the NHL drafted 14.  NHL teams took more players out of the BCHL than they did out of the Czech Republic and more out of the AJHL than they did out of Slovakia.  Those leagues are really hurting for young talent.
  • The Dallas Stars must take kids out of the smaller leagues on purpose.  Their "hot spots" are the BCHL, the OPJHL, US high school and US midget.  All of those players are on track to go the NCAA route but the Stars may also feel that those players get fewer views from other teams and thus they have a better chance at uncovering a very talented player.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins didn't select a single player from the WHL in the last five years.  Darryl Sutter stands in awe of their foolishness.
  • The Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames love players from the WHL.  Somewhat surprisingly, the Oilers really don't and yet they still trusted their WHL scout and took Cameron Abney.  So weird.  In  perhaps the least surprising revelation on the chart, the Wild also love US high schoolers.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes haven't taken a single player from a US high school or the USHL (outside of the U18 team). I wonder if they bother scouting that area.

The next project will be to check the hot spots for these teams and see if they've had more success than usual finding good players in these areas, so look for that sometime before the draft.  Also, feel free to make notes and observations of your own in the comments!

6 recs  |  Comment 22 comments |

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SJS OHL= SJS OHL 67’s

by Mogen_david on Jun 8, 2010 11:40 AM PDT reply actions  

Five guys all from the same OHL team is pretty bizarre.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 8, 2010 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good stuff. I’ve done something like this (without the color coding) for the Flames, but had never bothered to look at the rest of the league. It’d be interesting to see relative success rates of guys drafted from various places as well.

Frankly, I’d forgotten about that old post. I’m surprised you remembered it.

by Kent Wilson on Jun 8, 2010 11:55 AM PDT reply actions  

Haha, and I see that I should have read the concluding paragraph before commenting.

by Kent Wilson on Jun 8, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

The Flames are a good test case for this because Sutter’s bias is so obvious. I’m really interested to see whether or not teams are actually more successful in their preferred areas but it will probably take some time to gather all of the necessary data.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 8, 2010 12:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Now, the Flames are an extreme example drafting more players from one league (WHL) than any other NHL club

Just throwing it out there, but could it be that because the Calgary Hitmen play out of the Saddledome, that it makes it easier and more convenient for the Flames’ scouting to scout the WHL when they pay a visit to Calgary, and therefore pick more WHL players based on having seen them first-hand more often?

The Pittsburgh Penguins didn’t select a single player from the WHL in the last five years.

Ex-Vancouver Giant and now Wilkes-Barre Scranton Penguin Casey Pierro-Zabotel was drafted by the Penguins in 2006 or 2007 if I am correct. Don’t think he was signed as a free agent.

by DerekLeung on Jun 8, 2010 2:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Casey Pierro-Zabotel was drafted out of the BCHL in 2007 and then went on to play for the Giants in the WHL. The Penguins also took another player from the BCHL in 2005.

Regarding the Flames, I don’t know if having the WHL in one’s backyard necessitates drafting there. Both the Oilers and Canucks are around average. The Ontario teams don’t seem to focus on the OHL either (though Toronto took a bunch in 2009). Honestly, I think it’s Sutter’s propensity to go with what’s familiar to him. He also signs and trades for a lot of Alberta talent.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 8, 2010 3:36 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah, no. Sutter just thinks that Canada (and western hockey in particular) produces NHL capable players. What’s more, I think he thinks the WC kids will be more willing to play and stay in CGY over the long haul. That’s why he almost never ventures into Europe (beyond Sweden) the QMJHL or into the states.

I can say it isn’t the presence of the Hitmen because the Flames, under Sutter, have never once drafted a Hitman player in 7 years. And there’s been some good ones. If they were using that as a scouting ground, you’d think one or two guys would have caught their eyes over the years.

by Kent Wilson on Jun 8, 2010 5:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Brandon Kozun is a perfect example of Sutter not favouring the Hitmen: a Calgary-born kid who put up pretty good junior numbers and passed right through his first draft on account of his size.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 8, 2010 9:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

Awesome stuff, guys.

You’d better believe this is a rec’n.

I know the small sample size is a bit of a downside to this kind of analysis, but on the other hand, I think you’re best off limiting the data to post-lockout numbers because drafting strategies have changed a lot over the course of the last decade. (That is, there has been more drafting from Europe since 2000 than any previous decade, I am sure.)

"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"

by JP Nikota on Jun 8, 2010 2:52 PM PDT reply actions  

Yeah, this stuff is always changing. Several teams will have made big changes in management and scouting since 2005 as well so it’s definitely not going to be a perfect reflection of what to expect in the future, but I think it does give some idea of which areas teams may be focusing on and where they think they may have an edge (i.e. maybe they have a particularly astute scout in a particular area).

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 8, 2010 3:38 PM PDT up reply actions  

Case in point: The Toronto Maple Leafs.

Ferguson was way more into European players than Burke is, which goes against the larger-scale trend of drafting increasing numbers of Europeans.

"Defense! Defense! Common! Do you call that blowing!?"

by JP Nikota on Jun 8, 2010 6:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

Interesting read

Hey Scott, awesome stuff. This is along the lines of your research. Thought you’d wanna see it.

http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/story/2010/06/08/spf-nhldraft-bias-of-scouting.html

by puckdonkey on Jun 8, 2010 4:50 PM PDT reply actions  

Thanks for the link. It’s an interesting article but the kid he mentions is playing in the OPJHL so if he has talent scouts are seeing him. Andrew Cogliano, for example, was drafted by the Oilers in the first round out of that league in 2005. The Red Wings also used a first rounder on a player from the OPJHL, Brendan Smith, in 2007. Basically, if Hyman has fallen that far on everybody’s draft list, it’s probably not primarily because of where he’s playing. Phil Cornet, for instance, was taken second overall in the QMJHL draft but fell all the way to the fifth round of the NHL draft two years later. It happens.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 8, 2010 5:46 PM PDT up reply actions  

It’s funny because Seidel had an article a couple of weeks ago talking about the risks of taking a kid from a lesser league (ie; he’ll look like a superstar against lesser competition):

2. The ‘big fish, small pond’ effect

Another important situation for teams to avoid is falling in love with a prospect who is playing against inferior competition. This can be true for kids playing high school or Tier II junior because a prospect that is just OK can look like Wayne Gretzky against weak opponents.

Seems a bit contradictory to then question why this kid has fallen down the standings somewhat, no?

by Kent Wilson on Jun 8, 2010 5:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Nice catch Kent. That’s pretty funny. Down the line, when some of these guys turn out (or not) he’ll be able to link to this stuff to show that he was right!

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 8, 2010 9:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Really interesting that Chicago’s avoided the CHL route to such a degree recently, given that their current team is basically known as “a buttload of Canadians, Pat Kane, Buffelin [sic], Hossa, and that goalie with the weird name”.

by Passive Voice on Jun 8, 2010 10:30 PM PDT reply actions  

also, Detroit’s taken a total of three non-Swede Europeans in the last half-decade? That too surprises me.

by Passive Voice on Jun 8, 2010 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Now, this isn’t exactly true, depending on how you decide to evaluate things. I’ve grouped the selections by the league they were drafted out of, so they’ve only taken three non-Swede Euros who played in Europe during their draft year. They did actually pick up a couple more Europeans: Andrej Nestrasil is a Czech who played in the Q and Jakub Kindl is a Czech who was drafted out of the OHL. So there are a couple of other Europeans hiding in the numbers.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 9, 2010 5:31 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great post, Scott

And Passive Voice: Just as another example for context: The Isles are listed as having zero NCAA draftees, though they’ve had at least five NCAA players recently off the top of my head. But all of them were “NCAA-bound” and actually completing seasons in high school/USHL at the time of their selection. So I tend to think of them as college players, but they were definitely not in that fishing hole when the team scouted and drafted them.

Lighthouse Hockey: Playing the NHL Lotto

by Dominik on Jun 9, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

Montreal only has one NCAA player as well on this list, and he was a terrible pick the moment he was drafted (Patrick Johnson). No biggie, just a 7th rounder, but that’s all they’ve drafted directly out of the NCAA.

Of course, this analysis doesn’t take into account undrafted free agent signees, which have become a seperate amateur scouting strategy that each team employs.

Puck Worlds: Chasing Pucks from here to Turku.

For Twitter Updates on Puck Worlds, follow @puckworlds. For updates plus additional witty banter from yours truly, follow @saskhab.

by Bruce Peter on Jun 9, 2010 8:45 AM PDT up reply actions  

Beauty post Scott, and terrific background work. Very enlightening. I have little to add, other than to suggest that you apply some sort of weighting model like you did with your goalie drafting posts. e.g. A team might take a first rounder out of Sweden and later finish up with WHL guys in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds, and obviously all those picks don’t have equal likelihoods of turning out.

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by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2010 9:01 AM PDT reply actions  

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