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Gilbert Brule Mock Arbitration - Ruling

Ruling

IN THE MATTER OF A SALARY ARBITRATION CONDUCTED PURSUANT
TO ARTICLE 12 OF THE COLLECTIVE BARGAINING AGREEMENT BETWEEN: 

GILBERT BRULE AS A MEMBER OF THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE PLAYERS' ASSOCIATION
hereinafter referred to as the "Player" or "Brule"

AND

THE EDMONTON OILERS HOCKEY CLUB, A MEMBER CLUB OF THE NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE
hereinafter referred to as the "Club"

Before: Bruce McCurdy, Arbitrator
Appearances:
For the Player: Benjamin Massey
For the Club: Scott Reynolds 
Hearing:  Copper & Blue, June 2010

I. Introduction

This is a matter of an arbitration involving Gilbert Brule and the Edmonton Oilers pursuant to Article 12 of the collective bargaining agreement between the NHL and the NHLPA.

Brule signed a 1-year contract after the 2008-09 season during which the Club paid him a salary of $800,000.  Under article 12, section 2 of the collective bargaining agreement the Player has exercised his right to salary arbitration.  This ruling determines the Player's remuneration for the 2009-10 season. The Player is requesting a salary of $2,700,000; the Club is offering $1,125,000.

Star-divide

II. History

Brule was drafted by the Columbus Blue Jackets 6thoverall in 2005.  He signed an entry-level contract with the Blue Jackets in 2005 but did not play the requisite 11 games in the 2005-06 season so the ELC commenced in 2006-07. He had one year remaining on his entry-level deal when traded to Edmonton on July 1st, 2008; then signed a 1 year contract on August 12th, 2009. He played the entire 2009-2010 season in the NHL. Player is 23 years old, 5'10", 180 pounds.  He plays forward (both right wing and centre) and in the platform year, 2009-10, he achieved career highs of 17-20-37.

The Club describes the player as an even-strength player who is useless on special teams. The Club acknowledges that he is a top six player at even strength, and that he is a physical player (top 3 on the team in hits) who risks life and limb on behalf of the member club.  

The Player describes himself as a developing offensive player that delivers superior results at even strength play. 

III.  Comparables

The club initially submitted a list of four comparables: Ryan Callahan, Tyler Kennedy, Daniel Paille, and Alexander Steen. Interestingly, the club submitted microstatistics from the platform seasons of the players in question (including Mr. Brule), but the offensive numbers submitted were done on a career-to-date basis, including Mr. Brule's underage years. We decided to use the same methodology to compare just the platform seasons of these players.

Player Platform GP G/gm P/gm +-/gm
Gilbert Brule 2009-10 65 0.26 0.57 -0.12
Tyler Kennedy 2008-09 67 0.22 0.52 0.22
Daniel Paille 2007-08 77 0.25 0.45 0.12
Alex Steen 2007-08 76 0.20 0.55 0.00
Ryan Callahan 2008-09 81 0.27 0.49 0.09

On a per-game basis, Mr. Brule outperformed all four comparables in point production, and (barely) trailed just Mr. Callahan in goal production. Mr. Brule's goal differential record was worse than the others, but he also played on by far the worst team of the group so we tend to discount this aspect as largely beyond the individual's control. So on a production basis, Mr. Brule more than holds his own with the comparison group.

The player's representative included Mr. Callahan on their list of comparables, as well as Robert Nilsson and Mikhail Grabovski.

Player Platform GP G/gm P/gm +-/gm
Gilbert Brule 2009-10 65 0.26 0.57 -0.12
Robert Nilsson 2007-08 71 0.14 0.58 0.11
Mikhail Grabovski 2008-09 78 0.26 0.62 -0.10

Ultimately the club agreed that Robert Nilsson was also a good comparable other than the length of his contract, so we will look particularly closely at Mr. Callahan's and Mr. Nilsson's platform seasons.

Player G/60 A/60 P/60 Sh%On
Gilbert Brule 1.11 1.25 2.36 9.62%
Ryan Callahan 0.95 0.95 1.90 6.55%
Robert Nilsson 0.53 1.84 2.37 10.60%

On a per-60 basis, Mr. Brule's even-strength production ranked an impressive 34th in the NHL among forwards with 40+ GP in 2009-10. It far exceeds that of Mr. Callahan, and is the virtual equal of Mr. Nilsson. We do note the club's comments about the sustainability of on-ice shooting percentage, and note that Mr. Nilsson's platform season was considerably further from the median of 8.7%.

We note, however, that Mr. Callahan was a regular contributor to New York's penalty killing unit which raises his value beyond that of Mr. Brule during their respective platform seasons. Mr. Nilsson is a better comparable with his similar point production rates, his lack of contribution to the penalty killing and defensive aspects of the game, and his good fortune in "riding the percentages" during the platform season.

Finally, we will review the salaries awarded to all six players identified by both camps:

 

Player Yrs Cap hit Year1
Tyler Kennedy 2 0.725 0.600
Daniel Paille 2 1.125 0.900
Alex Steen 2 1.700 1.700
Ryan Callahan 2 2.300 2.200
Robert Nilsson 3 2.000 1.500
Mikhail Grabovski 3 2.900 2.750
Average 2.3 1.792 1.608
Gilbert Brule 1 ??? ???

We note that all six players received new contracts in the 2-3 year range, with all but Mr. Steen receiving a graduated salary with increases built in after the first year. Since Mr. Brule's award will be for one season only, the comparative figures used for this award will be the comparison players' first-year salary, not their overall cap hit. Mr. Brule will have every opportunity to earn a further raise one year hence, an opportunity that the other players forewent in agreeing to multi-year pacts.

IV.  Other considerations

Mr. Brule is a former high ranking draft pick who is starting to fulfill his promise as he plays through his RFA years. The member club will surely acknowledge his situation is similar to that of Denis Grebeshkov or Robert Nilsson in 2008 or Ladislav Smid in 2009, all promising former first-rounders who each signed post ELC's in the neighbourhood of $1.5 million dollars. 

Mr. Brule is also a gentleman of high character, as seen by his recent donation of $10,000 to help a needy local child. This was extremely generous for a young player who has not yet achieved the one million dollar salary bracket. For this demonstration of good will we will take the extraordinary step of increasing Mr. Brule's award by that amount of $10,000. We will also award an additional $10,000 each for his representative's excellent use of the terms "Cogliano-esque", "simulacrum", "the remarkable Zack Stortini", and for his audacity in dismissing an entire branch of new statistics as "line noise", for a total arbitrator's bonus of $50,000. (Hey, it's not every day I get to play with somebody else's money!)

However, while the Player's own representative has made a strong emotional argument in favour of his client, we remain less than convinced that he compares favourably to the likes of Mr. Callahan, or that an outrageous contract such as that awarded Mr. Grabovski should be used as any sort of comparable. The Player's representative concludes that "Brule has plenty of room to grow into an expanded role and increase his value to the Oilers". We agree with this statement, and anticipate Mr. Brule's future remuneration will be commensurate with his future, increased value. This one-year contract under arbitration will bridge the period in which he establishes that future value, so we will not jump the gun here in anticipating the top end of that value. That will be up to Mr. Brule in 2010-11.

V.  Award

We find that the best comparable to Gilbert Brule is Robert Nilsson, who received $1.5 MM in the season following his platform season. For the reasons outlined in the previous paragraph, not to mention the fact that Mr. Brule delivers additional skills that are foreign to Mr. Nilsson's game in the areas of physical hockey and faceoffs:

We award Gilbert Brule a one-year contract in the amount of $1,550,000.

* * *

Feel free to mock the arbitration in the comments section; just don't mock the arbitrator.

Poll
What would be an appropriate salary for Gilbert Brule in 2010-11?
$1,125,000.
70 votes
$1,550,000
184 votes
$2,700,000
7 votes

261 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 21 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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We award Gilbert Brule a one-year contract in the amount of $1,550,000 $1,540,000.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 6, 2010 4:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

hahahaha

You guys just made me snork jello through my nose from laughing so hard. :)

"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
Science nerd and proud of it!

by Baroque on Jun 6, 2010 5:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

Your award came in too high.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 6, 2010 5:24 PM MDT reply actions  

So did yours on Grebeshkov. ;)

As Rod always says, time will tell.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 6, 2010 5:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

As a % of the total, the Grebs one was really close.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 6, 2010 5:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah, I was real happy with the Grebs one, especially that both you and the ultimate contract came out (ever so slightly closer) to my bid than JW’s. :) Frankly I thought all three of us nailed that one.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 6, 2010 10:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m curious what you think an appropriate award would have been given that in the vote you took 1.55M (lack of anonymity for the win!).

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 6, 2010 11:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

Without thinking, I voted on his likely award, rather than what I think he deserves.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 6, 2010 11:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

That makes sense. I will choose to believe that about 50% of voters did the same thing :)

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 7, 2010 12:40 AM MDT up reply actions  

It’s not going to be an award. Oilers will sign him. I too will be interested to see the figure of what the org thinks he’s worth.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 7, 2010 6:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

Nest time we do one of these we should have five categories in our poll:

(e.g.)
$1.125 MM
between $1.125 and $1.55
$1.55
between $1.55 and $2.7
$2.7

Which will give a much better idea of whether people think the award is low or high. Give folks 3 choices in the middle rather than just the 1. Cuz with just the three choices (player, team, arbitrator) the middle one will win the poll 10 times out of 10.

Either that, or everybody thinks I’m right. Which is highly doubtful if past experience is my guide.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 7, 2010 6:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think he’s worth about $1,125,000

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 7, 2010 9:41 PM MDT up reply actions  

But Gilbert Brule ran over your dog or something, so you are hardly impartial.

by Benjamin Massey on Jun 8, 2010 11:56 AM MDT up reply actions  

Yeah, what use is a smurf who can both hit and score?

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2010 10:10 AM MDT up reply actions  

Your lack of deference for sample size and big picture over the last 3-4 weeks is annoying.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 9, 2010 6:07 PM MDT up reply actions  

Guilty as charged on sample size, but it is deference to the big picture that has me holding out hope for Brule. If 2009-10 is as good as he gets, well, it’s no big deal. But if it’s a step along the way, it was a pretty impressive step.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 9, 2010 8:00 PM MDT up reply actions  

Just to explain myself a bit on why I didn’t compare the platform year points production, the methodology I used virtually required Brule to have the best (even strength) season since I used his actual production as my top benchmark. I didn’t think that there was much reason to give the specifics since it was clear by the methodology that Brule’s numbers would be the best of a reasonably tight bunch.

In terms of the “value added” with Brule compared to Nilsson, I don’t really see it. The FO thing is a whole lot of nothing as far as I’m concerned. He’s a guy who has almost broken even in 600 EV FO’s. And then there’s hits. By eye, it’s at times a negative in his game because he sometimes puts himself out of position. I’ll take a guy who draws penalties well over a guy who hits and is average on FO’s for sure.

I’m also surprised that you (Bruce) seemed to pretty much set all of the career numbers aside is (more or less) irrelevant. I suppose Brule looks comparable offensively to Nilsson in the platform year, but career-wise it just isn’t the case. Even if you’re intent on giving him the benefit of the doubt for his time in Columbus, Brule’s AHL offence is pretty poor. I think taking that into account really pushes him down toward Paille.

All that said, I can’t be too upset by the award. It’s obviously higher than I’d have liked, but if that were an offer sheet, it would fall right on the line between a lone 3rd round pick and a lone 2nd round pick in compensation. That 3rd round pick compensation was basically my goal in this.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 6, 2010 7:04 PM MDT reply actions  

This just in: Brule is worth more than a third-rounder.

At 52.6% Brule led the 2009-10 Oilers in FO% by almost 5% over their second best faceoff guy (50+ draws). My personal bias with faceoff ability is that career rates are less important than the most recent stats; it’s an acquired skill. RH FO guys have extra value. Also, everything else being equal, a guy who hits is more valuable than a guy who doesn’t, especially on a team full of guys who don’t. Hitting ability is one thing that makes Brule stand out from the rest of the smurfs; he really punished some people last year. Again, that’s a personal bias, but I am, after all, the arbitrator. :) I just threw those in there as value-added things that would explain that last $50 K a little more realistically than my original rather whimsical "arbitrator’s bonus".

Nilsson had 20 points in 53 career GP before the platform year, a little better than Brule but not all that much. (Brule had more games, which experience has value as well.) Nilsson’s contract was surely driven by the platform year, as was Brule’s "arbitration".

In reality I suspect Brule winds up getting more than my figure if he signs for multiple years. I held the figure down because it was just the one year. Hopefully I’m wrong and he signs a two-year deal at $1.2 or something, but I’d be surprised, let’s put it that way. And, this just in, I am NOT a professional arbitrator. Heavy guess work involved in all of the foregoing.

If it helps, Ben is more pissed off at me than you are. I think Derek is too. Hopefully I’m even fired.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 6, 2010 10:43 PM MDT up reply actions  

Oh, I know he’s worth more than a third rounder which is why that was my goal. To me, your RFA guys need to be playing for less coin than their implied value if you want to build a winning hockey team.

With the FO stats, he took less than 300 draws this year! He was the sixth most used FO guy! It seems to me that’s not really enough to establish him as a good FO guy when his career rate is less than 50/50.

With respect to offence, do you think the AHL results are pretty well meaningless? He’s only a smidge worse than all of the comps in terms of pts/gm at the NHL level but his AHL results are significantly worse than all but one (of the four others with AHL time). I found it really interesting that you chose Nilsson as the closest comp. At least in terms of offence, I thought Paille was much closer, though he was the furthest away the platform year, which may have hurt him I suppose. For what it’s worth, I’m not at all pissed off at you or by the award, just curious about the thought process.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 6, 2010 11:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

thought?

process??

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 6, 2010 11:35 PM MDT up reply actions  

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