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NHL Free Agency Set To Open - Who Should The Oilers Target?

"I think we'll be active, but we're not looking for the home run here. We're looking for some depth players. We need to retool the bottom end of our defence. We need to change maybe a little bit of our bottom six forwards. We're not looking for that home run through trade or free agency at this point."

--Steve Tambellini, saying the things that the 'sphere has been waiting on for the better part of four years.  Will he follow through?

Sports radio hosts and their callers clamor to see the  "kids" turned loose, going so far as to suggest a second line of Taylor Hall, Sam Gagner and Jordan Eberle, but more sane minds know that kids who may not be quite ready for "The Show" will drown against tough minutes.  Need evidence?  How about the Edmonton Oilers circa 2006, 2007, 2008 and 2009.  Between now and the time that Stu's kids are ready to face the big bad minutes of the Western Conference, the Oilers will need to find a couple of veterans to handle the hard work and allow Stu's Kids to develop.

That was the essential basis of my thinking when I looked at the Oilers off-season plans. The Oilers should be looking for stopgaps to get them through the next year or two, and Tambellini's statement gives some hope that he understands that as well.  In the previous post, I mentioned a number of low-cost options that the Oilers could bring in to serve very specific roles, namely "...the most cap-friendly center that is able to win faceoffs and kill penalties...or a cheap left wing that isn't completely over his head against tougher minutes or one that has penalty killing abilities..."  I mentioned a couple of names in the post as well:

Dominic Moore, Matt Cullen, Richard Park, Jim Slater, Eric Belanger, Manny Malhotra, Alex Tanguay, Stephane Veilleux.

Jim Slater has re-signed with Atlanta, so he's out, but the others remain.  There will be no Hossa, no Heatley, no Jagr this off-season.  There will be one or two players from the class above and the Oilers will be better for it.

Star-divide

Tambellini mentioned the bottom six forwards and that's the group that I'm going to look at today.  The first grouping fit the bill, but will likely cost too much for them in cap hit or contract term.

 

NAME   POS   AGE   TEAM   CAP HIT   DETAILS
Colby Armstrong R
27 ATL $2,400,000 2010 (UFA)
Matt Cullen
C
33 OTT $2,875,000 2010 (UFA)
Matthew Lombardi C
28 PHO $1,816,666 2010 (UFA)
Alexei Ponikarovsky F 30 PIT $2,105,000 2010 (UFA)
Lee Stempniak F 27 PHO $2,500,000 2010 (UFA)
Alex Tanguay F 30 TBL $2,500,000 2010 (UFA)
Raffi Torres F 28 BUF $2,250,000 2010 (UFA)

 

We know that Colby Armstrong can handle the tough minutes, but if the Oilers have any significant competition for his services, they won't be able to afford him.  The same goes for Matt Cullen.  Matthew Lombardi and Alexei Ponikarovsky both saw their play fall off late in the season and in the playoffs and may have scared off potential suitors.  Lee Stempniak's offensive explosion will likely get him a bidder or two if someone is looking to capture lightning in a bottle.  Raffi Torres has been around the block once and wasn't happy, I doubt he'd come back to Edmonton of his own free will.

That leaves Alex Tanguay.  Tanguay turned down multiple offers at the beginning of the free agency period last season and kept looking for the big score.  He had to settle for a one-year deal with the Lightning and didn't fit in well there.  He didn't produce and spent much of the season in Rick Tocchet's doghouse.  A number of sources have hinted that Tanguay's shoulder wasn't right and that was the cause of his struggles.

 

NAME   POS   AGE   TEAM   CAP HIT   DETAILS
Eric Belanger C
32 WAS $1,750,000 2010 (UFA)
Andy Hilbert L
29 MIN $650,000 2010 (UFA)
Manny Malhotra C
30 SAN $700,000 2010 (UFA)
Dominic Moore C
29 MTL $1,100,000 2010 (UFA)
Rob Niedermayer F 35 NJD $1,000,000 2010 (UFA)
Richard Park C
34 NYI $750,000 2010 (UFA)
Fernando Pisani F 33 EDM $2,500,000 2010 (UFA)
Marc Pouliot C
25 EDM $825,000 Not-Qualfied
Vinny Prospal F 35 NYR $1,150,000 2010 (UFA)
Ryan Stone F 25 EDM $600,000 2010 (UFA)
Stephane Veilleux F 28 TBL $750,000 2010 (UFA)

 

There are no tough-minute-beaters in this group - Niedermayer, Pisani, and Prospal used to be able to handle the job, but the years are catching up to them.  Could they handle limited second minutes action and penalty killing duties?  The stupefying decision to qualify Jean-Francois Jacques likely means that Ryan Stone doesn't have a place in Edmonton, but a cap-strapped team like the Calgary Flames would be a perfect home.  The "name" centers in the group - Eric Belanger, Manny Malhotra and Dominic Moore - all made names for themselves in the stretch drive and playoffs with the Capitals, Sharks and Canadiens and may have priced themselves out of the Oilers' market.

That leaves a couple of players for the Oilers to consider:

Andy Hilbert - Jonathan Willis asked the Oilers to sign Hilbert last season and, predictably, they ignored him.  But now that we have the scouting department's ear, at least when it comes to the draft, maybe the fellows in charge of negotiating and such will listen.  Hilbert couldn't find a job with the Wild last season, but has been a solid contributor in previous years, as Jonathan pointed out.

Richard Park - Park still has the wheels, can still win faceoffs, and he plays on the penalty kill; his numbers were terrible last season, but so were the Islanders.  He's not capable of playing tough minutes and seems to replicate most of what Colin Fraser brings to the team.

Marc Pouliot - Well, yeah.

Stephan Veilleux - He was a tough, affordable winger in Minnesota, but he didn't fare well against bottom-rung competition in Tampa Bay last season.

Where does that leave the Oilers?  Looking over the list, my choices would be to make a run at Tanguay, after doing the proper medical due diligence on him, and to re-sign Ryan Stone.  Tanguay is a proven commodity when healthy and Stone looked very good in his limited time before injury and giving him a one-way deal for $600,000 makes sense - if not for that qualifying offer to Jacques.

The Oilers can also go the offer sheet route.  From my article on dual offer sheets, there are a number of useful pieces that could be had for a second round pick next year, namely Andrew Ladd and Martin Hanzal.  Hanzal would solve a huge number of the Oilers' ills, and at the potential cost of only a second round pick.

Poll
Given positional needs and budget constraints which free agent would you most like to see the Oilers pursue on July 1st?
Colby Armstrong
213 votes
Eric Belanger
25 votes
Matt Cullen
18 votes
Andy Hilbert
7 votes
Matthew Lombardi
86 votes
Manny Malhotra
81 votes
Dominic Moore
28 votes
Richard Park
12 votes
Alexei Ponikarovsky
12 votes
Lee Stempniak
26 votes
Ryan Stone
40 votes
Alex Tanguay
62 votes
Stephane Veilleux
3 votes

613 votes | Poll has closed

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Can we rec that x1000?

by Hawerchuk on Jun 29, 2010 12:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

Fantastic line, Kent.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 29, 2010 5:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

I am apparently more like the call-in people when it comes to acquiring top-end talent. I think that “whale-hunting” itself is a good thing and becomes bad when a team lets it get in the way of smaller roster decisions. Every team needs to accumulate top-end talent to win and if the Oilers are planning on bringing Paajarvi and Hall to the NHL roster this year, they have a very nice window to win in the two years after next season, especially the year after next season when Hemsky and Penner will be playing on value contracts. Up front, I don’t think the Oilers need to chase a big fish, but if something comes up, they should at least explore the option. I think it does mean acquiring three more top-nine guys between now and the start of 2011-12 assuming you can keep all of Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Horcoff, Gagner, Penner and Hemsky. It’s a pretty nice forward group already if you can add three more “young veterans” who can handle tougher minutes. Thus, I’d be moving to fill holes on a three-year term with players I think fit a need on a Cup-winning team in 2011-12 and 2012-13 as opposed to going for a one-year stop-gap solution (this would be the back-up plan for me).

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 29, 2010 10:55 AM MDT reply actions  

I also have a strong bent towards acquiring top-flight difference makers. The difference between the callers-in and us is the determination of who is and isn’t a difference maker (think: the Kovalchuks, Lecavaliers and JOKINENs of this world).

by R O on Jun 29, 2010 12:09 PM MDT up reply actions  

With so many top-end young guns coming in the next few years, I think it is important for the Oilers to re-align their salaries ala Detroit. I think the key to long-term success with the cap is a consistency throughout the lineup, including these UFA’s.

Hemsky’s salary sets the bar for Gagner’s next contract (though obviously will be much lower since Gagner isn’t yet contributing nearly as much). Gagner’s will likely set the bar for the incoming 3 some.

But bringing in UFA talent will affect the payouts of Hemsky/Penner, which leads to an increase throughout the team. It’s a chicken/egg to be sure, because UFA’s will only sign for reasonable value in Edmonton once they win, and they need help to win… but I think overpaying have much longer term effects than just one contract.

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jun 29, 2010 2:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think that "whale-hunting" itself is a good thing and becomes bad when a team lets it get in the way of smaller roster decisions.

This is the central issue that I have with the whale hunting. It’s not about backup plans, it’s about overlooking 5th defensemen, 2nd pair penalty killers and left wings that know where their own zone is. If the Oilers can prove that they can take care of the little things, then by all means they can spend their waking moments trying to land Ilya Marian Dany Jaromir.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 29, 2010 5:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

Well said. Every roster spot is a crucial decision, and team balance a Must that has been backburnered in recent seasons at our peril.

One thing’s for sure, the org is clearing a lot of roster space to remake/remodel pretty much half the team. Evaluation time is over for Steve “Lizzie Borden” Tambellini.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 29, 2010 9:19 PM MDT up reply actions  

I kind of agree with the not sucking and attempting to succeed strategy. So I would also go after some premium free agents: specifically Anton Volchenkov for Five million a year for 4 or 5 years and Cobly Armstrong for three and a half million a year for 3 or 4 years. I know this is a lot for these players but I think the Oilers will have to be in the top end of the possible salaries to convince these players to sign here. I also would attempt to sign some stop gaps for next year. For one Richard Park for just short of a million on a one year deal; Kurtis Foster for one and a quarter million on a 1 year deal (on other GM is going to sign a player with this injury concern for longer); lastly, Andreas Lilja to a two million two year contract. I have a bunch of rookies in the line up and I would re-up Brule and Cogliano for 1.5 million and 1.75 million on one year deals. Gagner has a larger contract but with multiple years (say 2.5 Million for 3 or 4 years)

Centre: Shawn Horcoff 5.5M, Sam Gagner 2.5M, Colby Armstrong 3.5M, and Colin Fraser 0.95M. ($12.45 Million)
Left Wing: Dustin Penner 4.25, Taylor Hall 3.75 [Top end entry level deal’s Cap hit], Ryan Jones 0.975, Magnus Paajarvi-Svensson 1.525M, and Gilbert Brule 1.75M. ($11.275 Million)
Right Wing: Ales Hemsky 4.10M, Andrew Cogliano 1.5, Jordan Eberle 1.158M, Richard Park 0.95M, and Zorg 0.70M. ($8.408 Million)
Defensemen: Anton Volchenkov 5.00M, Ryan Whitney 4.00M, Tom Gilbert 4.00M, Ladislav Smid 1.300M, Kurtis Foster 1.250M, Theo Peckham 0.700M, and Andreas Lilja 2.0M. ($18.25 Million)
‘Tenders: Nikolai Khabibulin 3.75M, and Devan Dubnyk 0.85M. ($4.6 Million)
Buyouts (Nilsson, Moreau, Patio Lanterns): $1.685M

Total: $56,706, 000 with 2.694M in Cap Space
 
So if I am wrong about the exact numbers there is still a little space for adjustment and maybe pick up a player, at the deadline, if we are in a playoff spot already. Also it has 10.225 Million in expiring contracts (Zorg, Fraser, Jones, Cogliano, Brule, Foster, Park, Dubnyk, and Smid) and it does not deal with Souray’s return.

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jun 29, 2010 12:17 PM MDT reply actions  

Outside of Volchenkov, that’s not really that ambitious and it’s probably doable. For $5mm, I’d rather try to sign Paul Martin, who has some ability to get the play moving in the right direction. If you can get neither, chase down Michalek on a longer-term deal or Tallinder on a shorter-term deal.

Interesting take BCB, thanks.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 29, 2010 6:45 PM MDT up reply actions  

I like Martin as well, but I think he replicates Gilbert and Whitney too closely. Volchenkov brings a different (but defensive only) style to the Oilers’ blue line; also I think his first pass is underrated because of the perception of being only defensive, but his shot is crap. Pair him with Whitney as your top pairing (the tough minutes and defensive zone draws). Put Gilbert and Smid together, and you have two defensive units that can move the puck up the ice, be physical, and bring defensive reliability to the back end. Foster/Peckham and Lilja would make a great third pairing (offensive zone draws and butter minutes). Plus we have Lilja, Vochenkov, Whitney, Smid, and Gilbert for the PK, while using Foster, Whitney, Gilbert on the PP. I like this.

one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory

by B.C.B. on Jun 30, 2010 3:15 PM MDT up reply actions  

I like Martin as well, but I think he replicates Gilbert and Whitney too closely.

You vastly underrate Martin’s defense.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 30, 2010 8:58 PM MDT up reply actions  

I never tire of trading Brule

Right now I see the lines as this-ish:
Paijaarvi Horcoff Hemsky
Penner Gagner Qwerty
Hall Asdfgh Eberle
Jones Fraser Stortini
Jacques Zxcvbn

Whitney Gilbert
Smid Poiuyt
Lkjhgf Mnbvc
Peckham

Khabibulin
Dubnyk

Qwerty is Brule or Cogliano
Asdfgh is a real top-9 NHL Center. Connolly in trade or a Lang signing?
Zxcybn could be Comrie or Kotalik [or both]
Poiuyt is Gebeshkov – 8 over 3
Lkjhgf is Souray’s return [Rosival, Brewer, Huskins]
Mnbvc is a UFA signing. Pothier would be nice.

Also sign Leighton

I’m not sure if this "solution" is crusty enough
It means finding some value for brule and/or cogliano [can Olesz play center well?]
Armstrong would be marrrvvee – but he’ll have better options
Moore would be very good for line 3, as would Notzach [a brand new UFA].
I know many dislike Kotalik; MacT seemed to like him [he won puck battles along the boards]
That’s Marc-Antoine Notzach

by Mr DeBakey on Jun 29, 2010 2:27 PM MDT reply actions  

I saw some of the letters here, assumed it was spam and headed straight to the delete button only to see a name I recognized. Highly enjoyable.

by Scott Reynolds on Jun 29, 2010 4:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

I thought “Notzach” was Pouliot. Marc always did bear that burden in this fanbase.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 29, 2010 4:57 PM MDT up reply actions  

I thought he was using Q-bert language to swear at O’Sullivan and Nilsson at first.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 29, 2010 6:46 PM MDT up reply actions  

If the Coyotes didn’t match Hanzal at 2nd round compensation I would be fucking flabbergasted. I would also march into Mike Gillis’ office and spit in his face for not getting in on that.

by Passive Voice on Jun 29, 2010 4:53 PM MDT reply actions  

It’s still a league-owned team – I’d certainly push them as hard as possible if I were a cunning GM.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 29, 2010 6:46 PM MDT up reply actions  

well howcome Raffi Torres isn’t on the list?

Big, good skater, physical, good checker, can pot you 15-20. streaky as hell but he isn’t being brought in for the offence. 29 years old, had a bad season, should be available for 1-1.5 million

by esatikkanen on Jun 29, 2010 7:07 PM MDT reply actions  

One reason Torres may not be on the Only List That Matters is whatever reason the org saw fit to move Raffi along previously. If they’re looking to regenerate the room they might prefer to do so with new players.

But from a hockey perspective, absolutely, Raffi might make a good pickup for some club. Given a defined role and a smart centreman, he can be a pretty effective player.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 29, 2010 9:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

The organization and Torres parted ways on less than happy terms.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 29, 2010 9:34 PM MDT up reply actions  

Looking at the list Lombardi would be an excellent pick up. He’s been a plus player, he’s got some speed and he can score a little. Plus he’s on the right side of thirty so he’d still be useful when we hit our window.

by ChrisBat on Jun 29, 2010 9:53 PM MDT reply actions  

Plus he’s an ex-Flame who Darryl Sutter stupidly let go in The First Terrible Jokinen Trade. It would be a Glencross-style nightmare for Falmes fans. That alone is reason enough to try to sign him. >:)

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Jun 29, 2010 10:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

Lombardi = Glencross

As a Flames fan, I can verify that the Oilers picking up Lombardi would definitely be a “Glencross Revenge”. That could heat up some BoA rivalry.

By the way, I like how the Jokinen trades have to be delineated as either first or second, like any other travesty, such as the world wars. I just puked in my mouth.

Ryan

Sports Opinionated, Front Office Fans, Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast & occasionally even Puck Prospectus. Yes, I'm a sports-writing whore...don't hate me.

by SO_RyanP on Jun 30, 2010 11:48 AM MDT reply actions  

I’m waffling on what Lombardi will fetch on the market. I think he signs early first day, I just don’t know what his number will be.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Jun 30, 2010 8:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
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(updated 2.7.2012 at 7:26 AM MST)

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