Patrik Nemeth - 2010 NHL Draft Prospect Profile
The scouting report will strike the average Oiler fan as very familiar and not just because the report reads as if the writer knew exactly what sort of defender the Oilers need and the fans have been clamoring for:
Big, mobile blue liner.
Lack of offensive upside is what prevents him from being at the head of... draft class.
Seems to play a strong physical game.
Relishes physical contact.
Immovable force along the wall.
Big wingspan.
Solid hockey sense and vision.
Not an instinctive offensive player.
Isn't an effective point man/PP shooter.
May not ever be anything more than a low-end second pairing or solid third-pair defender at the NHL level.
No, you're not reading a classic Matt Greene scouting report circa 2002, you are reading all about Patrik Nemeth, the big mashing defenseman from Sweden.
Nemeth stands 6' 3" and weighs in at 212 pounds. He spent 2009-2010 with the AIK organization, splitting time between the under-20 team and the professional club, currently playing in the second division of the Swedish League, the Allsvenskan. He's a physical force on the ice who moves well and will likely be a shut-down-type defender and penalty killing expert, yet he's going to last well into the second round because he has zero offensive ability. The closest comps that come to mind are Matt Greene and Jason Smith, prior to his knees totally failing him. In other words, it's the type of player that the Oilers have been looking for since trading Greene for Lubomir Visnovsky. I've seen message-board types toss out Hal Gill as a comparable, but Gill cannot move, let alone move well.
Listed below are Nemeth's pre-draft rankings from the various scouting service and media outlets:
| Service | Rank |
| Central Scouting | 11th - Euro |
| ISS | 37 |
| TSN/Bob McKenzie | 42 |
| Hockey News | 61 |
As usual, the ISS rank skews a bit higher for the European player and the Hockey News skews far lower. Bob McKenzie has Nemeth at 42 which, if accurate, doesn't bode well for Nemeth's name being called by a member of the Edmonton management team. It seems like a reach to take Nemeth with the 31st overall pick and it's doubtful that he will be available when the Oilers draft again at 48.
There is a possibility that the OIlers could use their extra sixth-round picks and maybe a roster player to move up from 48 into the late 30's to select Nemeth if a physical defenseman is still on the wish list. However this may all be a moot point. In the poll about the 31st pick, fans were in favor of taking Alex Petrovic, the big blueliner from Red Deer. Should that happen, it's doubtful that the Oilers would have interest in Nemeth. Lowetide has been very high on trading up to land Dylan McIlrath, the massive pugilist from Moose Jaw, which would render any discussion about Nemeth or Petrovic moot.
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Choices
1 – Draft this player, develop him in the minors. Hope he pans out and doesn’t get injured. Give him sheltered minutes and games at the NHL level in a few years. About the time he is ready to be your #5 or #6 defenceman, his entry level contract is up.
2 – Sign an already developed, contributing at the NHL level version of this guy, for a reletively low cap hit because of the low box cars he puts up. Examples – Z. Michalek or J. McKee.
I think that your overall point is pretty solid, i.e. you don’t draft players hoping for them to become fifth and sixth defenders but if the player from “Choice 1” continues to improve and makes it to the point of being a top four defender, the draft choice is certainly worth it.
I’m a bit confused by “Choice Two” since the difference in quality between Michalek and McKee is rather substantial and the likely pay-out each will receive will also be very large. Are you trying to target a guy playing a shut-down role in the NHL or simply veteran help in the 6th/7th spot on the depth chart?
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 22, 2010 8:00 AM MDT up reply actions
Why are these mutually exclusive?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I don’t understand why you don’t take an top-end defensive defense prospect in the second round? Would you take a one trick offensive winger in the second round? How many complete players fall to the second round?
While I wouldn’t trade up into the first round in this years draft, I would seriously consider moving up in the second round: using the Nashville pick and another pick to move up in the 40ish range. Look what MacKenzie has just after 40 (i.e. 41. Stephen Johns, 42. Patrik Nemeth, and 43. Kabanov). Especially Nemeth or Kabonov, while these folks might be one dimensional players, but they are also some of the best at these dimensions in this draft. From my limited math, desire to draft a defensive prospect in the second round, and my gut feeling, after 45 on MacKenzie’s list there is a significant drop off. Would number 48 and number 91 (our fourth) convince the Rangers at 40 or the Wild at 39 to trade down? I would even add one of the sixth (just not our own, so either 161 or 166) to that trade. Using three bullets on shot is counter intuitive in the rebuilding mode, but I think the Oilers draft would look stronger if we had (OV# 1, 31, 39, 61, 121, 151, 161/166, and 181) then (OV# 1, 31, 48, 61, 91, 121, 151, 161, 166 and 181). Plus you never know, Sutter, may give us 73.
one of the founders and most prolific writers of Bringing Back the Glory
1 – Draft this player, develop him in the minors. Hope he pans out and doesn’t get injured. Give him sheltered minutes and games at the NHL level in a few years. About the time he is ready to be your #5 or #6 defenceman, his entry level contract is up.
And? Defensive rocks aren’t landing big contracts in their second go-round, it’s the offense-first and offense-only guys that are.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Doesn’t first pick in 2nd round usually work out in the 40’s range? I thought after the first round that the teams get reimbursement picks.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jun 22, 2010 8:37 AM MDT reply actions
The compensatory picks don’t come before the start of the second round but during it. If your team fails to sign a first round pick they then get a compensatory pick at the same number in the second round. So, for example, Riley Nash was taken 21st overall in 2007. If the Oilers fail to sign Nash to a contract, they will receive the 21st pick in the second round as compensation, i.e. the 51st pick overall. In that teams tend to sign 1st overall picks (no kidding, eh), the Oilers’ scheduled pick in the second round will in fact be 31st overall. The Nashville pick, however, may end up falling a spot or two, though I haven’t heard what compensatory picks, if any, or going to be given out for this year’s draft.
by Scott Reynolds on Jun 22, 2010 8:45 AM MDT up reply actions
Thanks for clearing that up for me.
by till_horcoff_is_coach on Jun 22, 2010 9:31 AM MDT up reply actions
Hey guys kinda off topic but.
Pat Quinn is stepping down and Tom Renney is taking over as Head Coach. Quinn will stay on with the club taking over an advisory role.
http://tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=325378
I'm CofOranje for the next month.
HUP HOLLAND HUP!
heh, i just moseyed over this way to see if there was a reaction, and instead learned something about Patrik Nemeth.
by Passive Voice on Jun 22, 2010 12:32 PM MDT up reply actions
I called Pat Quinn looking for a comment, and he asked who the hell I was then wanted to know when his pizza was getting there.
We’re working on something brilliant, but if you want instant reax from the C&B team @BruceMcCurdy, @CopperandBlue, and @Lord_Bob (i.e. me) are snarking it up on the Twittertubes.
by Benjamin Massey on Jun 22, 2010 12:35 PM MDT up reply actions
noticed you don’t like Horton. how come?
by Passive Voice on Jun 22, 2010 12:44 PM MDT up reply actions
Horton caps $4 million, which isn’t bad but isn’t great, and gets paid more. He’s an effective but not dominant two-way centre without a great deal of offense. And he played his entire career in the Southeast Division, which has made every skater to leave it other than Brad Richards look better than he actually is. He’s pretty good and if he fell out of the sky, even at $4 million, I’d take him. But he didn’t fall out of the sky; the Bruins had to give up two pretty good picks and a nice prospect to get him. That’s a lot for a slightly overpaid second defenseman.
by Benjamin Massey on Jun 22, 2010 12:55 PM MDT up reply actions
And Dennis Wideman is, of course, not a prospect. I’m at work too while dealing with this and the Quinn thing; I’ve got too many things in my little brain right now.
by Benjamin Massey on Jun 22, 2010 12:58 PM MDT up reply actions

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