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Around SBN: The Worst Team Ever Projected?

Blackhawks 6 Flyers 5 - Game 1 Scoring Chances

Blackhawk fans are greatly concerned as they watch Chris Pronger go for the Mandible Claw on Troy Brouwer.

This game is full of both hope and disappointment for the Flyers and their fans.  They scored five goals.  They shut down Chicago's top scorers.  They didn't take any penalties.  They didn't get outshot.  They didn't get outchanced.  They lost.  Whoops.  That last one is a killer.  The bright side is that the Flyers have now shown that they can hang with Chicago at even strength, at least they did last night - though it's also true that the Blackhawks didn't have their best game - but that silver lining doesn't obscure the dark cloud that is a Game One loss and a huge opportunity missed.  It's very possible that Game One will end up being both Antti Niemi's worst game of the series and the most lopsided power play advantage for one team over another.  And yet they couldn't win.  It seems likely to me that there will be games where the Hawks are more dominant and only a sterling performance in goal will save the day.  Last night they just needed average.  Disappointing indeed.  Scoring chances and more after the jump.

Star-divide

Scoring Chances

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net.  Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are.  A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score.  He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.  And, of course, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome scripts.

Chi-phi_game_1_part_1_medium

Chi-phi_game_1_part_3_medium

Philadelphia looks like they dominated the first period by the chance totals, but the vast majority of their advantage came on the power play.  On the other hand, the Blackhawks only had one ten-minute run of dominant play in the entire game.  Getting pasted with the score tied at the start of the third period is never a good thing but that ten-minute period of time is what I expected from larger chunks of the game.  Going into the third period, the Flyers had actually outchanced Chicago 6-1 at even strength with the score tied.  Now, in a game with so many goals, that's not exactly a large sample of time and by the end of the game it was 6-6 at EV with the score tied, but that's a far cry from the dominance I - and most others - were expecting.

Chi-phi_game_1_part_2a_medium

Chi-phi_game_1_part_2b_medium

It turns out that Peter Laviolette decided to stick with his line of Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Simon Gagne.  Predictably, Joel Quenneville decided to play Dave Bolland's line against them for most of the evening and it was Bolland's line coming out on top in Game One (Bolland was +2 -1 head to head against Richards).  This begs the question, "Will Derek allow a story complementing Bolland to be published?"  Seriously Derek, an impressive performance!  At even strength!  And he scored a shortie!  For the Flyers, the fourth line was much better than I thought they'd be, playing about seven minutes at even strength without getting killed.  The line was more sheltered than usual (6 OZ draws compared to 4 DZ draws, which is the opposite of their usual distribution) but that's to be expected playing against the Blackhawks on the road.  Overall, a good performance from them.  The other line to perform really well was Danny Briere's group who made up for Richards being outplayed.  They took the Toews' line out behind the barn for a whipping (Briere was +5 -1 head-to-head against Toews), a pretty darn impressive display.  Briere reminds me some of Brian Campbell in terms of how he's perceived.  People look at the player and see the contract which often causes them to overlook the fact that he's actually pretty good.

 

The Righteous Remnant

3. Danny Briere - I've pretty much established why I think he was fantastic.  By all rights, it should have been a performance that was good enough to win.  Not only did he prevent the Toews' line from doing much of anything, he scored a goal and had three assists.  That's an incredible performance against good players.

2. Troy Brouwer - I always kind of forget about this guy when I talk about his line.  But hey, he scored two goals tonight, and that's pretty darn good.  Coming into the series I thought that the Sharp line might be awfully tough for Claude Giroux and his crew to handle and that's how it worked out last night.  It wasn't a thoroughly dominant performance by Sharp's group, but I thought that the ice generally tilted the wrong way for Philly when this match-up came about.

1. Chris Pronger - The Philadelphia Flyers had 20 chances on the night.  Chris Pronger was on the ice for 19 of them.  With Pronger on the ice the Flyers outchanced Chicago at evens 11-5.  When he was on the bench they were outchanced 7-1.  Chris Pronger led all skaters on either team with a Corsi rating of +17.  The next closest player is the unguessable Ben Eager at +6.  Chris.  Fucking.  Pronger.  He's a damn good hockey player.

 

The Whore(s) of Babylon

3. Patrick Kane - The team's gameplan is designed to provide cover for him and his line so getting outchanced 7-2 is even worse than it looks.  The Briere goal at the end of the second is a nice summation of Kane's work on this night.  A giveaway in the neutral zone followed by running around confused in the defensive zone until Danny Briere scores.  When he's going offensively, it's easier to overlook some defensive warts but when his offence isn't there and his line plays a lot in the defensive zone, it's ugly.

2. Antti Niemi - Let's not forget that this guy was pretty bad.  I'll give away number one on the list by saying he wasn't the worst goalie in the game but let's just say that he wasn't the best one either.  After a shaky start he just kept on looking shaky.  To his credit, no goals allowed in the third period.  But... there were only four chances against and three of them missed the net.  So... one difficult save to preserve the lead!  I guess that last bit is more of a condemnation of the Flyers than of Niemi.

1. Michael Leighton - You knew this was going to be a gong-show when he lost the wrister from the blueline about seven minutes in.  That puck didn't end up in the net, but the facepalm it induced was a sign of things to come.  He allowed five goals on six chances.  The only one he saved let out a rebound which was promptly put into the net.  On this night, he was the personification of failure.

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Q can't hide the one way players with Toews in this series...

The Hawks won but I don’t see them keeping these lines together. I know everyone is in “love” with Buff but there is more to defense then “hits”. Having Kane and Buf on the same line is a defensive liability that they could get away with against the Sharks. I think the Flyers have more two way players so you might see Buf moved and it might be all the way down to the 4th line.

by DaleHalas on May 30, 2010 10:07 AM MDT reply actions  

Yeah, they had a rough go against Briere’s group and that includes a guy in Ville Leino who doesn’t have much of a track record against good players. It may just be that Kane/Toews/Byfuglien played a bad game and will be better in the future though. They weren’t playing awful players against SJ and they did well. I think Quenneville will give them at least one more game (despite the fact that he was already tinkering in this one).

by Scott Reynolds on May 30, 2010 1:48 PM MDT up reply actions  

Kane was rotten in this game and Toews not a whole helluva lot better. Byfuglien was hitting but wasn’t particularly sharp on the puck or the man either. As a line they had a flat-out stinky game, their first in quite awhile. I expect them to bounce back.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 30, 2010 1:59 PM MDT up reply actions  

People look at the player and see the contract which often causes them to overlook the fact that he’s actually pretty good.

A fundamental truth. Needs to be said more often. There’s a long list of guys that belong in this group, and no shortage of people who, once they decide the player is overpaid, tend to think of the guy in entirely negative terms, like he’s just nothing but a big fat liability. Whereas a $5 MM player who’s getting paid like a $7 MM player – Briere, Campbell, Gomez – is still a $5 MM player, and he’s gonna help your team on the ice even as he complicates your payroll.

He allowed five goals on six chances. The only one he saved let out a rebound which was promptly put into the net.

Mindbogglingly terrible.

This was in my view, a mindbogglingly terrible game, especially the first two periods which “featured” 50 stoppages in play, 10 of them for goals. Only in the third did some flow develop, with just 11 stoppages and some decent continuous action, albeit just the one goal. Philly is surely ruing their opportunity to steal what will surely stand up as Chicago’s worst game of the series.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 30, 2010 10:34 AM MDT reply actions  

surely ruing their opportunity to steal what will surely stand up as Chicago’s worst game of the series.

The Hawks worse game in every series so far has been the first one. They are two and two in series openers and I consider both of those wins “stolen.” They play much better after that first one, though…

by DaleHalas on May 30, 2010 11:01 AM MDT up reply actions  

Whereas a $5 MM player who’s getting paid like a $7 MM player – Briere, Campbell, Gomez – is still a $5 MM player, and he’s gonna help your team on the ice even as he complicates your payroll.

Gomez does not belong in that group. Gomez might actually be a $7 MM player as soon as we can all figure out how much a tough minutes outscorer is worth.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 30, 2010 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions  

So long as he’s not taking mind-rendingly stupid penalties every other game.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 30, 2010 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

That too. What was up with that?

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 30, 2010 1:39 PM MDT up reply actions  

I have no idea. Maybe he was getting frustrated with his lack of touch around the net and started taking it out on whatever Flyers happened to be nearby. Crazymaking.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 31, 2010 7:15 AM MDT up reply actions  

Well he started mighty early. He took a bonehead penalty on his first shift of the series, Philly scored, and Montreal trailed the whole rest of the series.

I thought he’d come back hard with better games, but the parade to the box continued and the goals didn’t come until that last, too-late one in Game Five.

I know Gomez pretty well, I’ve had him in my keeper league pool since trading for him in 2003-04, and this series of games against Philly was the worst I’ve seen him.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 31, 2010 9:34 AM MDT up reply actions  

Ugh, you don’t need to tell me about that penalty. I believe the first words I shouted at my TV during that series were, “What the fuck, Gomez?” He led by example in that game: three of the first four Philly goals came on (or right after) senseless Montreal penalties.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 31, 2010 4:11 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m temporarily down on Gomez after his horrible series vs. the Flyers. I do think he’s a good player, but as for outscoring he was -6 in the playoffs after +1 in the season. (Yeah I know, I know, it’s just the easiest available quick and dirty measure.) Lots of folks would say 12-47-59 +1 isn’t anywhere close to a $5 MM player let alone a $7 MM one, but I give lots of value to tough minutes. Just 14 goals in 97 GP though, which is less than you’d expect for that kind of dough.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 30, 2010 1:24 PM MDT up reply actions  

I don’t know about Gomez either. He does play the tough night in and out, and he just won’t score. One of the worst shooter I’ve seen, it’s a matter of shooting at the worst moment and always looking for the pass.

What I find interesting is his zone starts numbers. They are consistently up there and I think a big part of it is that he is simply that good at taking the puck into the offensive zone. He also is a superior penalty killer (not only does he lowers the amount of scoring chances against but he actually creates SH Scoring chances) and pretty good (albeith not dominant) in the defensive zone in general.

To my naked eye, he certainly is worth 5 millions; he is a valuable heavy lifter. Plays the toughs, eats huge amount of minutes, etc… He ain’t a superstar, but then again, who is? The 2 million overpay that his salary represents is far less nefarious to the habs salary cap than Laraque’s 1.5 mil or Mara 1.75 if you ask me.

by Olivier on May 30, 2010 7:36 PM MDT up reply actions  

This begs the question, “Will Derek allow a story complementing Bolland to be published?”

I think it raises the question of whether he’ll allow this use of “begs the question” to stay published.

by Passive Voice on May 30, 2010 11:17 PM MDT reply actions  

Derek has chosen to suffer in silence so far. Either that or it just doesn’t have an impact anymore, but I’m betting it’s the former.

by Scott Reynolds on May 31, 2010 12:09 AM MDT up reply actions  

rocking back and forth, wild-eyed, holding his knees up to his chest, and muttering “scott, you’re fired. scott you’re fired” over and over?

by Passive Voice on May 31, 2010 1:48 AM MDT up reply actions  

It’s hilarious to me that Derek and Ender both have this trigger.

(Incidentally, they’re both crazy: it’s not uncommon for words/phrases to have different meanings in different contexts.)

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 31, 2010 7:19 AM MDT up reply actions  

I actually don’t think it’s crazy. The phrase clearly had a specific meaning at one point and has slowly gained another one through consistent misuse. This second meaning is now probably even the dominant meaning in regular conversation which makes it harder to communicate the original meaning of that phrase. Further the “new” meaning is unnecessary since we already have the phrase “raising the question.” It’s not surprising to me that this series of events is frustrating to some people.

by Scott Reynolds on May 31, 2010 10:31 AM MDT up reply actions  

I on the other hand get exasperated when people confuse “complement” with “compliment”. But I usually bite my tongue on the matter. ;)

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 31, 2010 2:04 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m perfectly fine with language evolving, so long as it’s clear from context what’s happened. I think there’s a distinction between two phrases coming to merge, such that one phrase now covers both meanings, depending on context, and two similar words being merged into an unholy hybrid that inherently creates a double negative (“irregardless”).

And because it always comes up in these sorts of arguments, the basic rules of grammar and spelling getting binned by the Internet in general over the last 20 years is not the same thing. Word meanings evolve all the time. The total loss of conventions that have been understood for centuries in order to ensure comprehensibility? No, sir. (Though even at that, you could argue the same thing about the elimination of the declension system in the 11th-14th centuries.)

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 31, 2010 4:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

Check out all the Kane wannabes in the front row.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 30, 2010 11:46 PM MDT reply actions  

at least far-left knows where it’s at.

by Passive Voice on May 31, 2010 12:06 AM MDT up reply actions  

No, the guy who knew where it was at was the guy in the far corner of the Flyers’ zone in the front row in the California Golden Seals jersey, complete with tie-up neck. I think he had #12 on, but I couldn’t tell on my SD set.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 31, 2010 7:22 AM MDT up reply actions  

I thought that C was for “Cents”. Goes well with Pronger’s 20 for all those Kane fans out there.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 31, 2010 9:39 AM MDT up reply actions  

front row.

Actually, those front row seats are so expensive in the playoffs that the team just “throws in” the Kane jersey for free…

by DaleHalas on May 31, 2010 7:59 AM MDT up reply actions  

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