The Best Forwards In The NHL - Tough Minutes Edition
Last year, right before the season was complete, I took a look at the forwards in the NHL that were playing the tough minutes. The entry's title, "The Best", has a double meaning: first, it's meant to show which forwards are playing the best opponents possible; second, it's meant to show my belief that the best players in the NHL are the ones that are able to outscore the tough minutes. For those unfamiliar with the quality of competition metric, please visit the always-educational Behind The Net Hockey and Gabriel Desjardins' FAQ on QualComp.
QualComp is important because it shows which forwards are playing the toughest minutes night in and night out. These forwards are the men entrusted with not just shutting down the opposition, a phrase beloved by hockey fans and media, but outscoring the toughest competition, a phrase that should be much, much more important to hockey fans and hockey media. Limiting the opposition's best in terms of chances is always a good idea, but the impact players, the players that bring true value to a team, are those that can outscore the opposition in any circumstance at even strength.
There are other factors that can bring context to the performance of these players, but the list that follows after the jump is a simple look at the forwards that have taken on the tough minutes for three consecutive years and their performance against that competition in a very narrow view: even strength outscoring. I'll add context in the coming weeks.
There are sixteen forwards that have played the tough minutes each of the last three years. Broken out by position they are:
Left Wing:
Jochen Hecht, Ilya Kovalchuk, Henrik Zetterberg
Center:
Pavel Datsyuk, Scott Gomez, Martin Hanzal, Shawn Horcoff, Jay McClement, Samuel Pahlsson, Mike Richards, Eric Staal, Stephen Weiss,
Right Wing:
Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Hejduk, Rick Nash, Martin St. Louis
This is a select, though varied, group as Centers make up nine of the sixteen men on the list. Twelve of the sixteen are first line players, traditionally known as "scoring line" players. The specifics are in the chart below, broken out by scoring differential per fifteen even strength minutes, approximately the minutes per game of a top line forward.

Out of the sixteen tough minutes forwards, eleven have been able to outscore their opponents over the last three years. While there are a few bargains, this group is a very expensive one.
- Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg continue to be the gold standard of forwards in the NHL. Datsyuk's even strength +/- is astounding considering his nightly competition. The underlying secret of the Detroit model isn't saving on goaltending or drafting Swedes in the sixth round -- it's having a pair of forwards that can destroy the other team's best players season after season.
- I said last year that I was stunned that Stephen Weiss was the 4th-best player on the list. This year, he's up to 3rd. I took a deeper look at Weiss and noted that he was outscoring the biggest names in the game each year and I still find it hard to believe just how good Weiss is and how under-recognized he is.
- Scott Gomez takes a beating from NHL fans for his lack of goal-scoring and Bob Gainey took a beating for the trade that he made to acquire Gomez, but Gomez is the goods. He may not score goals, but his defensive prowess and playmaking ability are top notch. His performance in New York was supposed to be a by-product of Henrik Lundqvist, but the numbers in Montreal show differently. Gomez is an even strength demon.
- Jochen Hecht is one of those bargains on this list. Though he's thought of as a role player in a very specifically defined and extremely narrow scope, in reality, Hecht is an excellent even strength player.
- The bottom of the list contains three centers that have been asked to do some near-impossible work on pretty bad teams and their results are very similar. Adding context to the list shines a much brighter light on Shawn Horcoff, Samuel Pahlsson and Jay McClement.
The above list raises a question. If you knew that you could sign an NHL forward and had knowledge that he would outscore the tough minutes for three seasons in a row, how much would that forward be worth? If you had the ability to see into the future, are these guys worth a contract near the cap? Why or why not? How much more valuable is player that isn't scoring goals, but is still beating the other team's best, like Scott Gomez than a player that is popping in 35 goals per year, but isn't playing the best compeition, like Jeff Carter?
Finally, how likely is it that the players on the above list will continue to play the tough minutes? How likely is it that they will continue to outscore the tough minutes?
In the article last year, I looked at forwards that had turned the trick two years running. Here is that list:

- Is Travis Zajac riding Zach Parise's coattails or is he just that good. His outscoring rate is Datsyukian.
- Rene Bourque's name is not a surprise to Western Conference fans, though I'm going to bet that there are a large number of Eastern Conference watchers that have never heard of Bourque, let alone realize that he's this good.
- Sidney Crosby's injury during the 2007-2008 season keeps him off of the first list, but five years from now, he may be the only player on the seven year list.
- Florida's Michael Frolik was a surprise to me, much like Stephen Weiss was last season. What's more surprising is that Frolik has only been in the NHL for two years. He's riding shotgun with Weiss - which player is having the bigger impact?
- Antti Miettienen and Andrew Brunettte are attached at the hip at even strength and attached at the hip in the ratings. Both are excellent even strength players, trap or no trap.
- Matt Stajan's numbers show that he might not have been such a bad return as the centerpiece of the Dion Phaneuf deal. The four-year, $14,000,000 extension he signed is also a good one by these numbers. But how much of his play was due to Alexei Ponikarovsky?
- Alexander Steen and Brandon Crombeen have been climbing the mountain with Jay McClement in St. Louis. Bringing context to their numbers will show just how good they've been.
- Finally, poor Kyle Okposo. He's been thrown into the deep end in New York and he's had it rough.
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I wrote about him last season, and he only got better.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ll fully admit I’m not much of a stat head, but I have a question.
How do Andrew Brunette and Antti Miettinen make the list but not Mikko Koivu? Those three have been cemented together on a line for the better part of two full seasons. I am not criticizing, I am just asking.
Also, Antti Miettinen… you can have him. No, really. He’s yours. No trade needed. Just take him. He’s a third line player playing on the top line. Any guy skating next to Koivu should have amazing numbers, and yet Miettinen still struggles to break 40 points. He is the 40th best RW in the league according to just points. 40th. On the top line. Ouch.
Great post and analysis, as always, Derek.
Rule #17: You may not impersonate representatives of Hockey Wilderness and handout NHL themed wrist bands.
Also, Miettinen’s offense is pedestrian at even strength but hell everyone on the Wild had a tough time of it. The leader was Koivu at 2.12 EVPts/60 and Miettinen clocked in at 1.69 EVPts/60. A very meh number, but relative to the rest of the team it was okay.
The real killer was Miettien’s powerplay production. An appallingly bad 2.87 PPPts/60 despite being a semi-regular on the PP. Although the PPTOI numbers imply that Miettinen didn’t play on the top PP unit. And nobody on the Wild got that many PP minutes to begin with, but here’s where Koivu distances himself from Miettinen.
It’s not really Miettinen’s fault IMO. Maybe the coaches just shouldn’t play him on the PP (although maybe they don’t have better options, and in that case that’s on the GM) but at evens he’s not horrific in context or anything.
Maybe the coaches just shouldn’t play him on the PP (although maybe they don’t have better options, and in that case that’s on the GM)
This is why I think Erik Haula might just have a chance in Minnesota someday soon. He might be tiny, but he dazzles on the power play.
It’s also why I think that Minnesota will leap at the chance to draft Nino Niederreiter if he’s there. There aren’t any power play guys in their system and free agency this year doesn’t have many affordable power play specialists. So unless they trade Harding…
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I would very gladly take you up on your offer of Antti Miettinen, thank you very much. That said, having mostly seen him in games against the Oilers, I’m a tad surprised to learn he isn’t an 82-goal scorer.
I caught the Wild live twice this year, and both times the Brunette-Koivu-Miettinen line impressed the shit out of me. Saw all three guys real good.
If the top scoring RW were spread unifmormly around the league, somebody’s top-scoring RW would rank 30th. 40th ain’t that far behind. Especially when you consider the tough minutes those guys play. If you ask me the Wild’s problem isn’t anybody on that line, Minny just need another line that scores. If Bouchard and Sheppard were doing what they were drafted to do this conversation would be very different.
Looking at Behind the Net approximately confirms what I roughly expected: at evens Miettinen has the toughest Corsi QualComp on the Wilds, and has the best Relative Corsi. That’s a pretty impressive combination!
To me Antti Miettinen is the Fernando Pisani of the Wild.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on May 3, 2010 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions
Well… I get to see the guy live 41+ times a year, and watch him live on TV for the other 41. If you are referring to the fact that Pisani is underrated, Miettinen does not qualify. He is on the top line with one of the best centers in the game. He goes on streaks of three games where he scores goals and gets assists. Then he does nothing for twelve games.
Bouchard was out with a concussion all season, so saying he isn’t doing what he was drafted to do is a bit cruel. He can’t even play. When he played with Gaborik, he did just fine. He’s a play maker, not a goal scorer. Sheppard is the biggest joke there is here in MN. If someone needs to step it up, it’s Havlat. He needs to find a way to skate with Koivu, as that is why he was signed.
The problem with Miettinen being the #40 RW in the league is that Havlat is at #17. Havlat needs to be the top line guy, not Miettinen. Everyone on the line looks good because Koivu is the pivot. You could put Sheppard and AJ Thelen up there and they would look like gods. Good ol’ Mittens is not playing to his spot in the line up.
Rule #17: You may not impersonate representatives of Hockey Wilderness and handout NHL themed wrist bands.
I had the same question about Koivu, but his Qualcomp is a bit lower this year. Maybe from the easier minutes he took while double-shifting?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
So can we use this list(s) to finally put an end to the Crosby vs. Ovechkin arguments? Relatively even point totals (injuries notwithstanding), Crosby beat him in the goals this year, and Oive nowhere near this list. And thats not including the ring and medals. Imho, Ovies starting to get left behind.
So can we use this list(s) to finally put an end to the Crosby vs. Ovechkin arguments?
No.
If you’re approaching this with the motivation of trying to crown your home-boy #1, you’re going to be very disappointed. They’re both terrific players, probably 1-2 in terms of ability to help their teams win.
I mean I think Crosby’s the better player, but that’s based on a more nuanced and balanced look on their relative contributions.
So can we use this list(s) to finally put an end to the Crosby vs. Ovechkin arguments?
You’ll never put an end to it no matter what you argue. However, if you’d like to use it in context as a piece of your argument, sure.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Not really. Ovechkin played the toughest minutes in Washington this season and outscored at 0.700 DIFF/16. He was a +53 at EV. That’s a better differential in one season than all but one player listed above. The team obviously had a lot to do with it, but some of the WOWY that’s been done confirms that he’s really the engine behind how well the Caps outscore.
I find Ilya Kovalchuk the numbers hard to square with Ilya Kovalchuk the guy on the ice.
I don’t doubt the guy faces tough comp, the idea being to take some chances away from him. Goalies should probably legitimately fear for their lives when the puck’s on his stick, but the opposing skaters should feel safe. Their jobs are easy, the play dies on Kovalchuk a ton and consequently he gives a ton of chances back to you. But this chart implies that he’s a decent option to lead a forward corps.
Although as I’m writing this, I do remember that Kovalchuk was a minus in the previous two seasons and was just a plus now. I even thought that was very strange because Tyler’s look at elite finishers showed that they were almost all pluses even if they gave back the other way. Although Kovalchuk made up enough ground this season in that department, I guess.
Kovalchuk’s 09-10 in Atlanta at EV: 39 GF, 35 GA, Corsi+: 649, Corsi-: 717, Corsi%: .472
Kovalchuk’s 09-10 in NJ at EV: 24 GF, 19 GA, Corsi+: 386, Corsi-: 343, Corsi%: .529
What really threw Kovalchuk off in Atlanta was the fact that the shot-saved differential at EV when Kovalchuk was on the ice was at 320 to 407! In NJ, it was a more palatable 189 to 175. In any case, his time in New Jersey really boosted his Corsi% to just under 50% and likely driven up his +/- at even strength. That his centers were usually Zajac or Elias and his right winger was usually Zubrus or Langenbrunner (Lemaire settled on Kovalchuk-Zajac-Langenbrunner by the end), who are all pretty decent at least in both ends of the rink probably helped in cutting back the Corsi against events for Kovalchuk.
Ultimately, I don’t disagree. For example on the chances being given back, sometimes Kovalchuk will just charge ahead in the hopes of getting a seam to keep a play alive where upon it really breaks down and while that happens the Devils are changing anyway. But because he does so much going forward, he maintains such a good shot percentage, and is seemingly versatile in terms of where he can beat an opposing defender and goaltender, it’s beneficial to give him big minutes regardless of how tough his competition is.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
Regarding Zajac
I don’t know for certain. Zajac’s Corsi percentage was hurt much more away from Parise well than Kovalchuk, but when Zajac wasn’t with Kovalchuk, he was basically with Parise – a Devil who pretty much made nearly all of his teammates better in terms of Corsi%. I’ll have to do a WOWY to verify.
One thing I’m growing to understand that even if Zajac’s success is a by-product of Parise, then perhaps the best course of action is to not risk it and demand that NJ lock both of them up. To think, they’re just entering their prime now.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
I used Gabe’s original Qualcomp metric to do the list last year, so I stuck with it.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Datsyuk and Zetterberg
You note that the guys at the bottom of your list are “asked to do some near-impossible work on pretty bad teams,” thus leaving them with unflattering numbers.
Shouldn’t the reverse qualifier apply to the guys at the top?
Before crowning the two Red Wings as the “gold standard” let’s acknowledge that when either of them is on the ice he’s accompanied by five pretty damn good team mates.
Don’t get me wrong. Pavel and Z can play on my team any day. But I wonder how their differentials would look if they played for, say, the Panthers.
Like, I said in the article, I’ll be adding context to the list in the coming weeks.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
IIRC, at different times this year one of the two had Bertuzzi put on his line. The fact that they didn’t tank while carrying him around should be enough to crown them champions.
by SmellOfVictory on May 3, 2010 6:01 PM PDT up reply actions
usually Datsyuk
It was horrible to watch. Datsyuk would carry the puck across the blueline, see his options for passing, and debate trying to shoot himself when covered, pass to 44 for him to flub the puck and turn it over, or run himself into the boards and cause himself a coma to ease the pain.
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
Science nerd and proud of it!
"Hey Pavel,
…we got you a replacement for Marian Hossa!"

“It’s Todd Bertuzzi!”

by Passive Voice on May 5, 2010 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions
Ha!
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on May 5, 2010 8:58 PM PDT up reply actions
You should post that at Winging It in Motown.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on May 5, 2010 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions
perfection :)
That’s exactly how it went. I swore that the worst thing about -——- was that he was sucking all the life out of Pavel like a hockey-talent-eating leech. Ugh.
That’s when I started referring to him as “that thing who SHOULD have blown out his damn knee instead of Franzen.”
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
Science nerd and proud of it!

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