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Flyers 6 Canadiens 0 - Game 1 Scoring Chances

Claude Giroux, Scott Gomez and Jaroslav Halak all focused on the puck.  Two of those guys may have forgotten their contacts in this one.

As far as 6-0 games go, this one was close.  Everything that had gone right for the Canadiens over the last several games went wrong tonight.  Jaroslav Halak couldn't make a save.  The forwards couldn't capitalize on their chances.  The defenders couldn't clear the front of the net.  The whole team couldn't stay out of the box.  In so many ways, it was a game to forget.  And yet, penalties aside, the Canadiens had played a good first period, outshooting and outchancing Philadelphia.  The Flyers fielded a lot of post-game questions that suggested the game was easy but each and every time the answer was sincerely critical of their own game..  Peter Laviolette, Chris Pronger, Daniel Briere and on down the line all saying that they needed to be better than they were in the first period and that the game could've been very different with a bounce the other way. I don't know if it matters a whole lot but when I hear the Flyers speak about the Canadiens, they seem like the first team to think that the Canadiens could really beat them on merit.  Humility from the Flyers.  Who would've thunk it?

Scoring chances and more after the jump.

Star-divide

Scoring Chances

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net.  Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are.  A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score.  He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.  And, of course, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome script.

Phi-mtl_game_1_part_1_medium

As some of you may already know, Olivier (En Attendant Les Nordiques) has been counting scoring chances for the Canadiens all season and has continued doing so throughout the playoffs.  With both Olivier and I counting scoring chances for this series, we should get a pretty good look at whether or not these counts are consistent between observers.  In this game, I scored 33 chances, Olivier scored 27 and we had 26 chances in common.  Thanks to the aforementioned Vic Ferrari, I can run something called Cohen's Kappa Test to see the degree of our agreement. According to Vic's test, our two lists of results have a correlation of 0.78 which is a pretty good level of agreement. My "unique" chances were as follows:

Phi - 1st - 14:48
Phi - 1st - 8:17
Mtl - 1st - 6:41
Mtl - 1st - 0:50
Phi - 2nd - 19:31
Phi - 2nd - 10:45
Phi - 3rd - 5:20

Olivier's unique chance was:

Phi - 1st - 7:50

Phi-mtl_game_1_part_3_medium

Back to the game itself, the game was actually very close at even strength with Montreal having the advantage after the first period.  The big difference in terms of chances came on special teams, where Philadelphia scored two of its first four goals (and a third just after a penalty ended) to put the game out of reach.  Although the Canadiens probably feel that they can do a better job of penalty killing, the fact is, they spent over ten minutes of the game killing penalties and of the six minor penalties they took, several were of the boneheaded variety.  Jaroslav Halak also struggled on the penalty kill, allowing a couple of goals from outside the faceoff dots (Briere and Gagne with the third and fourth goals of the night) before getting pulled.  Better goaltending and more disciplined play should cure most of what hurt the Canadiens defensively.

Phi-mtl_game_1_part_2a_medium

Phi-mtl_game_1_part_2b_medium

Montreal's line of Cammalleri, Kostitsyn and Plekanec was by far their most effective on the night getting several of Montreal's best chances against Philadelphia's top pairing of Pronger and Carle.  If they can be that effective throughout the series, the Canadiens actually have a pretty good chance of winning.  They'll need their goalie to be better of course and they'll need more from Gomez and Gionta as well, but having their top unit winning the battle at even strength is significant.

Sons of Light

3. Michael Leighton - He didn't allow a goal!  There isn't a whole lot more to say, though I will say that the didn't need to make too many marvelous saves.  Even the scoring chances I've noted weren't generally of the most dangerous variety.  But credit where it's due, Leighton stopped every single one and was a big contributor to the win.

2. Kimmo Timonen - His partner, Braydon Coburn, scored the first goal of the game but Timonen also played a significant role on an effective Flyers power play.  That duo was also charged with taking on Scott Gomez and Brian Gionta with surprisingly (in my view) good results.  Both Gionta and Gomez are very good hockey players at even strength and that pairing did a great job of preventing them from getting a sniff in the offensive zone.  Gomez had his best chance of the game in the first period when Timonen was riding pine.  Timonen also led the team in SH TOI with 4:35. 

1. Claude Giroux - I thought he and linemate James Van Riemsdyk were both fantastic, though I liked Giroux a bit more.  In addition to leading his team in chance differential, he also led them in the faceoff circle, winning nine of his fourteen draws.  The most influential of those came early in the second period when he pushed the puck forward for Van Riemsdyk who put the puck in the net to give the Flyers a 2-0 edge.  Giroux's goal to put the Flyers ahead 6-0 was a nice reward for a game well played.

Sons of Darkness

3. P.K. Subban - I haven't seen much of this player but he wasn't very impressive on this night.  He was on the ice for four of the Philadlephia goals, including the first three when the result was still in doubt.  On the first goal Ville Leino made him look like an absolute fool as Subban laid down to block a shot only to see Leino dance around him to the front of the net to get a shot which led to a rebound goal.  On the second goal, it was Giroux's turn to let Subban play the role of Washington General by pushing the puck forward to himself and then passing right through Subban to an open Van Riemsdyk in front of the net.  Bad, bad mistakes.

2. Jaroslav Halak - After getting it done so many nights in a row Halak really didn't give his team much chance in this one.  Two of the four goals came from just outside the dots and those need to be stopped.  He's been very good for much of the playoffs but has been mixing in the occasional stinker.  The Canadiens had better hope they remain very occasional.

1. Scott Gomez - Penalties.  His first one was just plain dumb (punching a guy from behind as he skates to the bench) and it cost the Canadiens a goal.  His second penalty was similarly stupid (a retaliatory slash), though this time Gomez was able to get out of the box before Philly scored.  The penalties aside, Gomez wasn't particularly effective against at even strength which is where the Canadiens need him most.  He may not have been the absolute worst player on the ice, but he was definitely the most underwhelming given my expectations.

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On the Briere goal – I can’t see any goalie stopping that one, even though it came from the edge of the scoring area. It was pretty close to a perfect shot. Most nights, that’s been sailing wide or hitting a post or something for MTL.

by Kent Wilson on May 17, 2010 7:49 AM MDT reply actions  

Agreed. I came down to the comments to write the exact same thing. All Halak saw was the twin peaks, er cheeks of Mount Hartnell, while Briere saw the open top corner and absolutely wired ’er home. No way is that one on the goalie.

Otherwise, nice write-up. Thanks, Scott, for doing the comp with Olivier’s data, I’m super interested in that. I’m pretty confident the method will hold up across multiple scorers, but it does need to be put to the test. This one will do very nicely as a test run, cuz you and Olivier are both pretty experienced at scoring games at this point.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 17, 2010 9:54 AM MDT up reply actions  

Well it seems to be unanimous that I made the wrong call on the Briere goal. I probably should have watched the replay more closely. I just had a star in my notes that it was outside the dots which I translated to “gettable” in my mind. After watching it again, Bruce makes an excellent point about the screen and it really was a very good shot.

by Scott Reynolds on May 17, 2010 5:02 PM MDT up reply actions  

Kinda agree with Kent on the Brière Goal.

The Giroux – Moore matchup is the one I’ll look at closely come next game. Moore coming in and being far more effective than Metropolit as a #3 C has been a big boost for the habs. But whenever he and Lapierre are matched with Pyatt (as they were last night) instead of Moen r Darche, they get blown away. But Martin likes Pyatt’s “sound defensive play” and doesn’t mind his absolute inability to do something in the offensive zone.

Gomez blows a gasket sometimes. Ususaly he comes back more focused so I’m not worried. Philly’s D is very very good but slow and I think this plays in Plek’s hand. But that Giroux line worries me to no end.

by Olivier on May 17, 2010 11:39 AM MDT reply actions  

I have no idea why Martin seems to have fallen in love with Pyatt. He’s a fine penalty killer, but he’s nothing more than a fourth-liner and probably never will be.

by MathMan on May 17, 2010 12:13 PM MDT up reply actions  

I didn’t notice Pyatt much during the game but both his numbers in that contest and overall on the season are nothing great. I noticed that BtN has him listed as a defender. Has he played forward all season?

I was also very surprised to see Moen playing with offensive players instead of a pure checking role. I haven’t seen the Habs much this year but think Olivier is probably correct that Moore and Moen together is the way to go.

by Scott Reynolds on May 17, 2010 5:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

Moen’s played a lot on that line this playoff. I guess Martin’s trying to counterbalance the size mismatch.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on May 17, 2010 9:22 PM MDT up reply actions  

Moen-Moore have been pretty good together during the season, either with Lapierre or Sergei K. As Mathman noted, it really is Martin sending Moen because Pouliot’s imploded; size isn’t a factor with Gionta and Gomez and Pouliot’s 6-3, so…

Pyatt is useful; to me he is a bit like MAB insofar as he is a platoon player: needs to be sheltered at ES, but very, very good on the PK. Martin is obviously sending him out there because Pouliot can’t hold any semblance or form of coverage. Dude is obviously stunningly talented, but he just spent 3 years in Minny’s and can’t even remotely be useful in either the defensive or neutral zones. That we traded Latendresse for that is beyond me.

by Olivier on May 18, 2010 12:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

What’s beyond me is how many Habs fan hailed the Latendresse move at the time it was made — keeping in mind that Pouliot was injured at the time and hadn’t gone on his hot streak.

Lats was the subject of ridiculous amounts of irrational hate he never earned with his play on the ice. He was reliably one of the Habs’ best ES scorers, but people hated him. I suspect it’s because he couldn’t skate fast. Pouliot can skate fast so he’s hailed as the better player, but there’s no real evidence that he’s more effective.

(And what annoys me the most is that he was ostensibly traded because Martin couldn’t get him going and couldn’t stand him. Ugh.)

by MathMan on May 18, 2010 3:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

To be fair, Latendresse never finished higher than 7th on the club in EV points. Further, most reliable ES scorers get more than three points in twenty-three games. When that run comes at the beginning of a season, fans will get unruly. I didn’t and don’t think it was a good decision to trade him but it’s not as though Latendresse was setting the world on fire.

by Scott Reynolds on May 18, 2010 4:05 PM MDT up reply actions  

He was, however, consistently up there in EV goals, and his scoring rates/60 were excellent — not bad for someone who spent most of his icetime with the likes of Lapierre and Kostopoulos.

His ES per-60 rates this year are pretty much equal with his per-60 rates last year. He just started producing on the PP and was given ES icetime commensurate with his productivity. He did not suddenly become tons better with Minnesota.

by MathMan on May 19, 2010 10:00 AM MDT up reply actions  

He did shoot 18.8% in Minnesota though. His previous high was 13.8% so I’m thinking that his numbers there are probably overstated. He may not have been better in Minny but he sure was luckier. If we regress his Sh% to that 13.8% figure, his goal total drops from 25 to 18 (in 55 games) which is probably more in line with what we can expect from him going forward.

by Scott Reynolds on May 22, 2010 9:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

Moen is playing with Gionta and Gomez largely because Pouliot’s game disintegrated after a lengthy hot streak. Young players disintegrating seems to have been a theme this year, unless they are named Pyatt. Or Subban, though I hope it’s not just a matter of time. The number of young players who have been shipped out (either to Hamilton or to other teams) this years is pretty frightening, and while a lot of them probably are never going to amount to much, it’s still worrisome that none of them have really progressed this year, and some of them (Latendresse, notably) ARE going to amount to something.

Pyatt seems to be the coach’s favorite for some reason I can’t fathom. He does all the little things right, but then he gets torched by all and sunder… his work ethic while he’s getting slaughtered is beyond reproach though. He’s an useful penalty-killer, but at evens he’s a 4th-liner, if that. Yet he seems to be Martin’s favorite plugger despite having done essentially nothing to warrant that status. He gets matchups and icetime that he simply can’t handle and it seems obvious there are others who’d be better suited to handle him. He even got shifts on the top two lines.

If you can’t tell, I’m not really pleased with the coach’s work. Too much sending of messages, not enough coaching to win games, and a ghastly, frighteningly bad-looking 5-on-5 system that I just can’t figure out the object. Unfortunately, he has a big contract and the media loves him after this run, so he’s not going to come under any kind of serious review.

by MathMan on May 17, 2010 10:53 PM MDT up reply actions  

Tom Pyatt = Liam Reddox

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 18, 2010 11:41 AM MDT up reply actions  

He should watch out for Clarke MacArthur

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on May 18, 2010 10:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Only if he’s got eyes in the back of his head.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on May 19, 2010 9:30 PM MDT up reply actions  

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