Power Forwards In the NHL: Revisiting the Mythical Beast
by Derek Zona on Apr 30, 2010 1:30 PM PDT
in Analysis
23 comments
When last I visited the concept of the Power Forward in the NHL, I tested the traditional fan description of a Power Forward and found:
Over the last three years, there are two players that qualify as power forwards -- Alexander Ovechkin and Shane Doan. The beast, though gravely endangered, exists. .5% of all NHL forwards can truly be considered power forwards in this sense. Perhaps asking these players to perform at this high of a level for three straight years is too much, given the beating that they must take on a game-by-game basis.
With the book closed on the 2009-2010 regular season, I decided revisit the topic to see if there were any newcomers to the position.
As I did in the last look at the noble creature, I set the minimums for the position at .3 goals per game (25 goals over and 82 game season) and 1.5 hits per game.
The following charts detail each player, by season that met the minimums. All of the charts are sorted by goals per game.
06-07 Power Forwards
07-08 Power Forwards
08-09 Power Forwards
09-10 Power Forwards
Shane Doan drops from the list due to a brutal shooting percentage season. If Doan spends 09-10 shooting at his previous career average, he pots 25 goals and is again on the list. So Alex Ovechkin is the only man that has met the conditions of a traditional power forward for the last four years. There are some interesting items surrounding this year's list though:
- Ryan Malone has made the list three years in a row. Injuries have limited him (as is the case with many of the people that appear on this list once), but he still managed to average .304 GPG. At first glance, his shooting percentage seems high, but Malone has managed to shoot 15% for his career.
- Mike Richards has also made this list three years running. It's especially impressive for a center, given the extra work. Richards is also among the leaders in faceoffs taken each year - he's a workhorse.
- James Neal is making a case for himself as the second-best power forward in the league as he's on the list for the second time in his career -- a career that is just two seasons old.
- Guillaume Latendresse will have to generate a much larger volume of shots to get back on this list - his 16.9% shooting percentage is not likely sustainable.
- Steve Ott is an interesting case - he's taken more shots in each of the last three seasons and his shooting percentage has increased. The type of minutes that Ott players aren't going to be conducive to him getting more than two shots per game on net (his average this year) and 15.1% is not sustainable.
- There were a number of players that couldn't duplicate their 08-09 season: David Backes, Andrei Kostitsyn, Ryane Clowe and Chuck Kobasew all had extremely high shooting percentages last season.
My conclusion about the traditional Power Forward still holds:
A roster fix via the vaunted "power forward" is nearly impossible. The players in this mold are extremely rare and the ones that do actually exist come with a heavy cap number. Their trade cost is just about priceless. Beyond that, the guys that fit this mold aren't necessarily dynamic scorers...
...there were 37 "power forward" seasons by 27 different players in this period. Only 8 of those players broke the 30 goal mark and the other 19 players averaged 24.8 goals per season.
These types of seasons have a very low rate of repeatability. The players that aren't named Ovechkin, Doan or Richards depend on extremely high shooting percentages to score their goals. When those percentages regress, those forwards are dropped from the list.
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Nice post Derek. Do you get any more (or less) players if you look at just road hits (to limit scorer bias)? I’d also be interested in “power-forward lite” type guys who maybe score at least .18 goals per game (a 15-goal season). If you can count on a player to score 15 goals and be a force physically, that’s pretty valuable and would include a lot of the players people think of as “power forwards” more consistently (guys like Dustin Brown and David Backes).
I plan on doing a power forward lite post and discussing the impact of injuries on these guys in the coming weeks.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Injuries are huge with some of these guys, not all. Gordie Howe and Mark Messier are 1-2 all-time in GP and both fit the power forward description.
For your “lite” version, I might suggest lowering the threshold to 1 Hit/GP and see what happens. It’s a bit of an erratic stat which is not kept consistently around the league, so Scott’s suggestion of road hits only isn’t a bad one. Another traditional PF metric is Goals + PiM, although that’s not a perfect fit either. Some PFs are relatively clean. The good thing about PiM is they are awarded to all players by the same group of referees, so scorer bias should be reduced.
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by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 30, 2010 11:17 PM PDT up reply actions
I once did a research paper on St. Louis media treatment of the Pronger-Shanahan trade, reasoning that grumpy reporters overlooked that 1) Pronger was likely to be a stud for two decades, and 2) Shanahan was part of a group of power forwards whose bodies typically wear out by their early 30s. (Amusingly, Gary Roberts was one of the examples — and then he had to go and unretire.)
In the end, I guess it was just an asset-for-asset trade.
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Really liked this, Derek. These guys may not be quite like Neely, Tocchet or Stevens in the early ‘90s, but it’s cool to see who’s got the numbers in this era.
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There aren’t too many guys like Neely or Tocchet in any era.
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i think then i got my definition of a power forward wrong. I always thought that a power fwd was one whose primary skill was to take the puck and drive to the net hard and make a play from close to the net.
Also i am very surprised to not see iginla here as he has always been advertised as one
i think then i got my definition of a power forward wrong. I always thought that a power fwd was one whose primary skill was to take the puck and drive to the net hard and make a play from close to the net.
Your definition is correct.
You should read the original article linked to in the first sentence.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
thanks derek.Looks like i missed it the first time around. I see the hits thing here i guess that answers the iginla question.
Now that the studies are done i wont be missin much now!!
If the definition was guys that owned the boards, slot and crease, Penner and Iginla would be near the top of the list.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
That Colorado guy
Chris Stewart . . . don’t know what his stats are, but know a power forward when I see one.
And of course, Flying Fridge has his moments. . .
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Apr 30, 2010 4:07 PM PDT reply actions
Penner is powerful, and he’s a forward, but he doesn’t bang or crash enough to be a true power fowrard.
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 30, 2010 4:21 PM PDT up reply actions
Agreed. Stewart is a power forward if I ever saw one.
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DefendingBigD
Oh, man
Why you gotta dig up a pic of Yann Danis in an Isles sweater? That’s just not right.
One guy I’ll watch: Matt Moulson. He doesn’t fit your list criteria (Nassau scorekeepers dig takeaways; hits, I’m not sure), but he fits my (and maybe yours?) description of a guy who is solid on the boards, drives to the net and takes the subsequent abuse (but doesn’t get hurt throwing constant hits at every corner of the rink), and scores in tight. This year, he showed an ability to score from the high slot and on (rare) breakaways, but most of his 30 goals were from right on top of the crease. His sh. pct. was 14.4%, so I’m pretty curious what next year holds.
Also, one of the dumb Vancouver colunists dissed him and misspelled his name, and then he went out and scored in a 5-2 win, so … I mean what’s not to like?
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Moulson narrowly missed this list.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I wonder if David Clarkson would’ve made the list if he didn’t get injured. He was on pace for at least 20 goals and 100 hits pre-injury, though slowed down since his return
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by Kevin Sellathamby on May 1, 2010 8:18 AM PDT reply actions
Excellent article again Mr. Zona.
I’ve gone on and on about my man-crush with James Neal since his rookie year. I agree with you that he’s making a case to be one of the best.
One of the things I like most about his game is that he’s mean. He has that Mark Messier “I’m gonna hurt you because I can” thing going for him.
He was smiling when he almost took Staios’ head odd early in the year. I like that in a hockey player.
by Woodguy on May 1, 2010 10:41 AM PDT via mobile reply actions
Yeah, but it’s rare that those types of guys stay healthy and keep playing the same game.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It's still hard for me to believe Ott scored 22 goals..
….and as far as James Neal goes, he’s been one helluva player here in Dallas in such a short time. Problem is, he tends to disappear off the score sheet and become invisible on the ice for stretches at a time…..it’s not a health thing, though, so maybe as he gets more experience he’ll shake that streaky side.
Anyways, nice work Derek!
"It would've been a huge momentum boost if we had beaten the St. Mary's School for the Blessed, Blind, Deaf and Dumb."
Hockey nut since the night of 5/2/08. What a night it was.
DefendingBigD
It is impressive that Neal is so young and on the list.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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