Look, there’s a lot of luck in winning in post-season. You’re up against a really good team, by definition, and you’ve only got a few days to get it right. It takes some luck. Are there also types of players and factors that are helpful in that situation? Of course. It’s like asking a physics professor whether there is a God. Scientists don’t know anything more about whether there is a God than morons do, because it’s not a scientific issue. This isn’t something I can measure. It’s a matter of faith.
Bill James on winning in the playoffs. As I said on Twitter earlier tonight, "It took a .980 save percentage by Halak to beat the Caps. A .960 and the Habs lose the series." Actually a .960 and the Habs get laughed out of the building.
Luck's a killer sometimes. Damn shame what they did to that dog.
about 2 years ago
Derek Zona
7 comments
2 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Actually a .960 and the Habs get laughed out of the building.
Hehehe…
I didn’t approach this series with nearly as much vigor as SJ-COL because I actually thought MTL had a couple really good players in Gomez and Gionta and at least a few players who weren’t fresh out of junior. Whereas COL was basically Stastny and mush.
And I thought San Jose had top superior two five-man units. Thornton isn’t Ovechkin but it’s not like they are so far apart that San Jose’s depth advantage doesn’t matter. And even before Tyler’s WOWY it looked like Washington was Ovechkin and mush.
So yeah, the WSH-MTL mismatch was obvious but not as much so as San Jose vs. the lottery team.
Still, on a personal level I would have rather backed the Avs. It’s not the players’ fault that the Hockey Gods smiled upon them. I noted that they made a bunch of dirty-ass plays in the regular season, still they are not douches on the level of Ovechkin or Plekanec.
How much of that .980 is due to taking approximately seven thousand crappy shots from the outside?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
About as much as the seven thousand taken from the slot.
Oddly enough, it was the crappy ones from outside last night that caused the most trouble. The disallowed goal was a shot from outside, the Ovechkin shot that went right through Halak’s legs and through the crease was from outside and the goal was scored on a bad rebound from an outside shot.
The disallowed goal came on a screen with interference, and the Laich goal came as a result of crashing the crease, something the Caps didn’t do nearly enough last night.
That Ovechkin shot was pretty bad, though. If that had gone in…
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I thought maybe the shot that led to the bad rebound may have been tipped near the crease. Certainly it came close enough to being tipped that it may have crossed up Halak somewhat.
One thing that was really apparent was how the Habs relaxed when it got to 2-0 and it nearly killed them. Three icings followed by that goal where the two Caps got inside the Habs defenders for one of the few times all night, then the Chimera chance and then the penalty. Things really went south there, after the Habs had looked real solid for the most part at 1-0 for over 35 minutes. Washington got their shots but there was always two or three Hab skaters between the puck and the net. Plus, needless to say, Halak, who was big as a mountain those last games.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 29, 2010 10:59 PM MDT up reply actions
I love how people cherry pick the last three games, isolate Halak’s S% and say: “This is luck!”. Now, of course they were lucky, but seeing Halak go 0.925 at ES on a 7 game span (with .880 and .980 games) isn’t out of line with what he’s done all year.
The 0 goals allowed on 50 shots on the PK is absurd tough, and probably in part related to Semin going 0 fer 44 on the series. That was the real luck, to me, Semin going cold, hell, Semin pulling a Jason Blake! And those shots don’t account for the many times he sent outright missed the net. Semin, to my eye, was the one getting the best SC all along.
When Halak was .880 for the first three games, no one said a word, and no one was worked up about the Choking Caps. Certainly he was unlucky. He gets benched, Price is no hell and Halak is back, after which he goes .980. Certainly he was lucky.
He had six sets of three games where his sv pct was < .890 this season.
He had two sets of three games where his sv pct was > .970 this season
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Oilers Schedule
Last 5 Games
@
Vancouver
|
Sat 04/07 | L 0 - 3 |
|
Anaheim
|
Thu 04/05 | OT - L 2 - 3 |
|
@
Los Angeles
|
Mon 04/02 | L 0 - 2 |
|
@
Anaheim
|
Sun 04/01 | W 2 - 1 |
|
Los Angeles
|
Fri 03/30 | L 1 - 4 |
In Association With
Latest Puck Daddy - NHL from Yahoo! Sports
- Monday’s Three Stars: Parise scores, Brodeur saves in Game 4 Devils win
- Zach Parise, Devils respond after a quiet Game 3 to even series with Rangers in Game 4
- Mike Rupp shoves Brodeur, sparks Game 4 chaos as Devils, Rangers coaches squabble (VIDEO)
- Devils try to even series with Rangers; watch the ‘Sandley Cup’ get built (Playoff Puck Previews)
- Sean Avery: Not in NHL playoffs, getting a handle on semi-nude modeling (PHOTO)
Latest stories and headlines from NHL.com
- Brodeur, Parise lead Devils to 4-1 win over rattled Rangers; East final tied 2-2
- Brodeur, Parise lead Devils to 4-1 win over rattled Rangers; East final tied 2-2
- Wild prospects lead Saint John past Edmonton
- Labrie stars in Admirals 1-0 overtime win over IceCaps; Norfolk leads series 3-0
- Frattin scores twice, including winner, as Marlies defeat Barons 5-3 in Game 3
