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Around SBN: Africa Cup Of Nations Semifinal: Black Stars Ripe For Upset?

Canucks 7 Kings 2 - Game 5 Scoring Chances

A pictoral representation of the score (Michael Grabner is about half as good as all the other guys in frame on his best day).

The game was tied at one in the first period and the Canucks had iced the puck, their fourth line trapped in the defensive zone.  I rubbed my hands with expectant glee hoping to see Anze Kopitar bound over the boards.  And it was so.  And I saw that it was God-damned awful.  The Canucks immediately carried the puck out of their zone, had Rick Rypien skate off for Ryan Kesler and scored the goal that would put them ahead to stay.  And the horn sounded - the first period.

The game was still two to one in the second period and the Kings had iced the puck, their fourth line trapped in the defensive zone.  I covered my eyes, knowing that the Sedins would be on their way to the dot.  And it was so.  And I saw that it was God-damned awful.  Within ten seconds Henrik Sedin had tied up the face-off, Samuelsson had picked up the puck and passed it off to Daniel behind the net who promptly came out front and scored.  And the horn sounded - the second period.

In the third period, my emotional involvement took a break. Scoring chances - the only reason I finished watching - and more after the jump.

Star-divide

Scoring Chances

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net.  Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are.  A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score.  He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.  And, of course, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome script.

Van-la_game_5_part_1_medium

Van-la_game_5_part_3_medium

It looks closer by the totals than it was on the ice.  The Kings generated exactly three scoring chances at even strength in the first two periods and with the game essentially over at 5-1 the Canucks held a 12-5 lead in even strength chances.  At that point, the Canucks were playing out the clock and the Kings got a few chances.  There's been a lot of talk so far about the Canucks' putrid penalty kill.  And deservedly so.  With ten power play goals against in five games, you'd think the series was already over.  Not only is that not the case, they're actually ahead.  The big reason?  The Kings can't score goals at even strength.  They have five even strength goals in total.  Part of that is bad luck (they've shot 5.4% at EV so far in the series compared to their season average of 8.1%) but most of it is not generating enough shots and scoring chances.

Van-la_game_5_part_2a_medium

Van-la_game_5_part_2b_medium

I wasn't a big fan of Terry Murray's changes.  He had one line going last game: Handzus-Modin-Richardson pounded on the Sedins.  But Murray decided to break them up and insert Richardson at center to get Justin Williams back in the line-up.  Handzus-Modin-Williams worked just fine but played almost none of the game against the Sedins (which was incredibly frustrating; at least try to get the match-up that's working for you).  Richardson, on the other hand, wasn't as effective at center as he had been on the wing.  Meanwhile, the first line continues to struggle.  I know it didn't work in game one against the Sedins but the trio of Smyth-Kopitar-Williams has done very well in the regular season.  If Williams was to come back into the line-up it seems logical to me to put him back with those guys, especially since they haven't exactly been lighting it up with Simmonds.  If it were up to me, Williams would be back with Smyth and Kopitar in game six to take on some lesser lights, Richardson would move back onto the checking line for Sedin duty and both Jarret Stoll and Jeff Halpern would be allowed to play center. 

Sons of Abraham

3. Daniel Sedin - Their line didn't generate a lot of chances at even strength but they did a great job of eliminating Smyth and Kopitar completely.  Daniel himself scored the goal that put the Canucks up two and was in on the goal that put them up three to seal it.  They were effective all night on the power play and got rewarded for it in garbage time.  I was tempted to put Mikael Samuelsson here since he scored twice but his first goal was from a pretty poor shooting area (Healy criticizing the Kings for not covering that area during the intermission was kind of funny, they actually were pushing the play to the outside) and his post-game interview was bad enough that he almost (not really) made the bottom three.  At any rate, it was a good game for Daniel and for the line as a whole.

2. Henrik Sedin - Yep, a good night for the line as a whole.  Henrik is a wonderful passer and ended the night with two assists.  Another of the more impressive parts of his performance was his face-off prowess.  He was 19 of 23 overall and a spectacular 9 of 9 in the offensive zone.  Every time the Sedins were out for an offensive zone draw, they started with the puck.  I know there's some chance I'm praising luck here (although if you're 50/50 to win a draw, there's only a 0.2% chance that you'd get nine in a row by chance) but I did notice them with the puck in the offensive zone an awful lot.  At any rate, if you're trying to defend against the Sedins, losing every face-off in your own zone is a great way to lose.

1. Ryan Kesler - He was great, especially in the first period.  He really hasn't been very good in the series, especially when you consider the fact that the Sedins have done quite a bit of power-v-power at home.  But tonight Kesler took advantage of some of his softer match-ups.  He drew an assist on the go-ahead goal and drew a penalty shortly thereafter with the game's result still in doubt.  When the Canucks' were killing the five-on-three, Kesler was out there to kill it off (the Canucks had both Kesler and Burrows killing that five-on-three, I assume because a defender was coming out of the box; I don't recall seeing two forwards killing a five-on-three before, but it seemed to work).  He led the team in chance differential at even strength (+4) and had a strong Corsi differential too (+6). 

Sons of Sodom

3. Jonathan Quick - He got beat on a wrap-around and he got beat on a shot that wasn't close to my normal "scoring chance" area, both in the second period with his team already down a goal.  Then he got the hook.  You know, before his replacement got the hook.  He wasn't the reason they lost but when he was pulled in the second he'd given up 4 goals on 13 scoring chances which is pretty poor.  This follows an equally poor third period in game four.  I'm keeping my eye on the transaction wire because if it were up to me there would be a different Jonathan in net on Sunday.

2. Ryan Smyth - One of the main reasons I threw my support behind the Kings was to cheer on the ex-Oilers.  They haven't been at all impressive.  Ryan Smyth was bad in this game.  He took two minors, but that's not the problem.  The first one was the kind of call you need to accept once in a while if you employ Ryan Smyth and he even made up for that one by drawing a penalty later in the period.  The second one?  Well, when you're down by four, I'm not convinced falling on top of Luongo is something to get too upset about.  No, the problem is the rest of his game.  It sucked.  He's supposed to be a part of the most dangerous line on the Kings and he was on the ice for one scoring chance (it was on the same play where he drew the penalty; he himself took a shot that missed the net).  One. 

1. Anze Kopitar - This is the best forward on the team.  Supposedly.  Yep, the best one.  And now it's been three straight games of very little offence.  When they had the match-ups in games three and four, Kopitar couldn't produce.  Back in Vancouver against the Sedins?  Even worse.  When you lose 7-2 there are plenty of people to call out.  Anze Kopitar is at the top of my list.  He had better be a force in game six.

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Thank your writing and effort Scott. I missed the game yesterday due to a small birthday celebration, and found that your game recap did more for me in terms of getting a feel for the game than any of the msm game reports I read. I really wish more objective and (more or less) neutral parties would write game reports, it makes a huge difference.

by rsm on Apr 24, 2010 10:13 PM MDT reply actions  

Thanks, I appreciate the vote of confidence. I’m also pleased that I can take a few shots at the Canucks here or there and still be considered (more or less) neutral.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 24, 2010 10:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m sure most of us over at NM won’t complain (too much), as long as the shots are justified.

A.K.A. Please feel free to take your shots at one: Andrew Alberts.

by Vancouverguy on Apr 25, 2010 11:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

You mean AA who last game out-chanced 5 to 3, had an assist, a plus 2, and managed to not take a single penalty (see Bieksa, Kevin)? Scott cruelly left him out of the Sons of Abraham.

Now, Scott, you’re underestimating Grabner. I think he’d look great in an Edmonton uniform, to go along with the other small forwards. He too has a lot of heart to go with his skill… ;-)

by antro on Apr 25, 2010 11:36 AM MDT up reply actions  

Alberts was fine last game but I have a hard time giving him too much credit because it’s hard for a bit player to really impact the game as much as some guys in important roles (at least in a positive way) and I thought that was the case with Alberts in that game. A solid outing, but not as important as the big guys performing well.

As for Grabner, he’s nothing special offensively and he’s not a particularly tenacious checker. Compared to Kopitar, Edler, Salo and Kesler he’s a scrub. I’ll be pretty surprised if he plays a significant role on the Canucks at any time in his career. But you never know for sure. You are right that he’s exactly the kind of player (disappointing “skill player” chosen in the first round) the Oilers like to take a chance on (Nilsson, Brule).

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 25, 2010 3:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

For AA, the simple fact of not taking a penalty was an achievement. I didn’t really expect you to give him any credit.

Yeah, Grabner has not amounted to much so far. If I remember correctly, it was a pretty shallow draft (I should check though). And Nonis was in love with the “new NHL” slogan which was going to be all speed. Scott Arniel, his coach in Manitoba, has been trying to teach him to check. Every so often we see articles about his renewed commitment. But maybe that’s all propaganda to see if some other team will trade something for him. The Canucks have not done well with their 1st rounders in the last few years, either bad luck or poor projection of talent.

by antro on Apr 25, 2010 6:03 PM MDT up reply actions  

The early returns from 2006 aren’t great for sure. It’s probably the draft I’m least familiar with since the lockout since the Oilers didn’t get to pick until 45th and that guy has been in college up until a month ago. But yeah, Grabner was taken 14th and there are only about six or seven guys obviously more established than him taken in the top fifty. So it’s not like everyone else hit a home run.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 25, 2010 7:21 PM MDT up reply actions  

Re: 5 on 3

Great stuff! I’m a bit late posting, but it’s only because Ionly found the site now and am back-reading all your posts. Regarding the 5-on-3, The Canucks have used 2 forwards, usually Kesler and Burrows, with one D off and on for the last two seasons. I have seen a few other teams do this as well – I think Philly was one of them, but I’m not sure.

by Josh Peters on Apr 26, 2010 4:51 PM MDT reply actions  

Interesting. Do they usually use two forwards when it’s a defender in the box and two defenders when it’s a forward in the box?

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 26, 2010 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

This strategy has been used from time to time in the past. First saw it many years ago, can’t remember who unfortunately. The idea then and now was an inverted triangle, with the defender more or less anchored in front of the net and the two forwards each more or less covering one of the circles and trying to chase the play to the outside. In part it’s a manpower thing; e.g. in Vancouver’s case esp. with Mitchell out they’re a little light on PK defenders while Kesler and Burrows are top-notch PKers on the front line.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 27, 2010 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions  

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