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Kings 5 Canucks 3 - Game 3 Scoring Chances

The Kings were slow out of the gate for the third consecutive game which is starting to get a bit tiresome.  But likely not as tiresome as being on the wrong end of a close judgment call for the second game in a row.  Lordy.  I understand why the league disallowed the goal that would have brought the Canucks within one (Bob McKenzie's take is particularly helpful in outlining the thought process) but I myself likely would have made the opposite call and having that call go against you would be a tough pill to swallow for any fan. Even Mike Murphy himself almost acknowledged that it was a "good" "bad call" when he said that there "wasn't a distinct kicking motion" in an interview on CBC.  Of course, he also believed (correctly, IMO) that Sedin was trying to put it in with his foot and it looks like that intent was what made it no-goal.  Of course, the Canucks wouldn't have been in a hole if they hadn't already allowed three power play goals and a softy at even strength.  I've noticed that Luongo sometimes (always?) crosses himself before games.  Given the way he's played in L.A. this season, maybe he should start hedging his bets. 

Star-divide

Scoring Chances

For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net.  Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are.  A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score.  He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.  And, of course, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome script.

Van-la_game_3_part_1_medium

Van-la_game_3_part_3_medium

The second period was the strongest period of the series for the Kings by far, both by the chances (10-4) and by the scoreboard (3-1).  Although they were again out-chanced in the game overall, the Kings were leading 20-19 before the Canucks pulled the goalie for the last two minutes and, frankly, with a two-goal lead through most of the period, you shouldn't expect them to push the play.  Teams tend to get out-chanced when they sit back, and teams tend to sit back with the lead so that 4-5 differential in the third period (at EV, both goalies in) is actually very good.  Still, it sure would be nice to see the Kings win the chances battle at EV one of these games.  Next up we have the individual chances:

Van-la_game_3_part_2a_medium

Van-la_game_3_part_2b_medium

This time it was the Canucks' turn to make some changes to the line-up.  Andrew Alberts and Rick Rypien were replaced by Aaron Rome and Tanner Glass.  Glass looked fine enough but that change isn't likely to make a big difference on the outcome.  The flip from Alberts to Rome is more interesting.  I'm pretty confident that Alberts is the better player but he was so bad in the first two games that it would've been difficult to justify keeping him in the line-up.  Nonetheless, Rome looked over-matched.  I know he's just getting back from injury, so maybe he'll be better going forward but he was exposed a few times last night (especially on the fourth goal).  On the Kings side, this was another tough game for the Greene-O'Donnell pairing.  I know fans in Edmonton sometimes pine for "Matt Greene in his prime" but, good gracious, he still looks bad to me.  These guys aren't a shut-down pairing since they don't take on the toughs but they're still getting pilloried.  Yuck.

On the Way of the Righteous

3. Mikael Samuelsson - He was usually out there on a very effective line with Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond.  That group accounted for the first two Vancouver goals, the second of which was scored by Samuelsson himself and gave the Canucks a much needed lift heading into the intermission.  That said, "Mikael Samuelsson" is a stand-in here for "Ryan Kesler at EV" because it was really Kesler driving the results (and flat-out dominating in the FO circle; he took 32 of the 61 draws and won 72% of them).  But I refuse to explicitly recognize anyone that was a part of the rather awful penalty killing unit the Canucks trotted out in the first two periods so Samuelsson gets the nod.

2. Brad Richardson - Richardson was on the ice for just over thirteen minutes at even strength.  Over eleven of those minutes came against Burrows and the Sedins.  Yet he won the scoring chance battle at even strength 6-3.  Despite not playing on the power play - he did draw one though - he lead the Kings in shots on goal (5) and scored a goal himself on a nifty steal to put the Kings up 4-1 in the second.  He didn't get a lot of time on the penalty kill but when he did he was effective.  The one SH chance was actually Richardson's as he took the defender wide to make a shot for himself.  He was physical.  He was fantastic.

1. Michal Handzus - Handzus was Richardson's center and also had a very good outing.  The other winger on the line was Fredrik Modin who also drew a penalty and played well. The defensive pairing that was matched against the Sedins most of the night was Doughty and Scuderi but I decided to recognize the forwards because of the way the Sedins were shut down. For the most part, these forwards weren't limiting chances by keeping the Sedins to the outside in the defensive zone (although they did that too) but by making sure the puck was in the offensive zone and working the cycle.  They basically out-Sedined the Sedins.  The only reason I gave Handzus the nod for top spot over Richardson is his work on the PP where he potted two of the three PP goals and got an assist on the other.

Following the Path of Wickedness

3. Anze Kopitar - He was great on the power play so I'm hesitant to put him on the list but he needs to be better at even strength.  With Modin, Richardson and Handzus providing cover from the Sedins (Kopitar played more against every other Canuck forward than he did against Burrows and the Sedins) the Kopitar line needs to produce.  Had they broken even, it would've been a disappointment.  Getting out-chanced 8-2?  Unacceptable, even if it was 6-2 before the empty-net sequence.  Before that sequence he was out-chanced 1-0 by the Sedin line, 2-1 by the Kesler group and 3-0 by the Wellwood trio.  His other chance for came against a jumbled group of Canucks' without a center.  Anze Kopitar and the rest of his line need to be able to outplay Kyle Wellwood.  Just do.

2. Roberto Luongo - He looked especially bad when Brad Richardson stole the puck from Aaron Rome and scored the Kings' fourth goal.  There's plenty of blame to go around on that one (Wellwood, Rome) but the shot was from a poor angle and beat Luongo five-hole.  Had Luongo made some brilliant saves earlier, a softy might not be so galling, but he didn't.  He couldn't stop the screened shot on the first goal or control the rebound effectively on the second or third.  They weren't "his fault" exactly, but you need to have your goalie make some difficult saves if you're going to win, especially if he can't make the easy ones.  Four goals on eight chances is awful.  

1. The Canucks' Penalty Killing - I couldn't decide on any one player because so many of the regular penalty killers played so well at EV.  But this PK deserved the bottom slot.  In my opinion the big problems are coming down low with the Kings getting too much traffic in front of Luongo and having easier access to rebounds than they should.  The main culprits in this regard were Salo and Edler who seem to be having a hard time controlling the front of the net.  Various commentators have been saying that the Canucks really miss Ryan Johnson on the PK.  I kind of doubt it.  Having a fifth regular forward helps but Johnson has the worst shots against rate among regular Vancouver penalty killing forwards this season and he wasn't any hell the year before either.  The guy they really seem to miss is Willie Mitchell who has been a solid penalty killer in terms of shots against both of the last two seasons.  I suspect that he's also much better at clearing forwards from the front of the net.  Either way, the Canucks need to find a way to convince their defenders to be more active when it comes to gathering rebounds and clearing traffic.

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I thought it was funny that the announcers were so enamored with Kopitar’s defense all night long. He was always working below his own goal line because that’s where the puck was!

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 20, 2010 3:32 PM MDT reply actions  

He was also terrible on the dot (1 for 11 including 0 for 9 against Ryan Kesler), which didn’t exactly help him get the puck moving in the right direction.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 20, 2010 5:17 PM MDT up reply actions  

According to Andrew Cogliano fans, faceoffs don’t matter.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Apr 20, 2010 7:16 PM MDT up reply actions  

That’s because real Andrew Cogliano fans have the man playing on the wing.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 20, 2010 8:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

Good stuff Scott, particularly with the wicked #2 and #1.

'Nucks Misconduct - Housing Swedish Millionaires Since 2000.

by Yankee Canuck on Apr 20, 2010 3:35 PM MDT reply actions  

Getting outchanced by Wellwood is difficult to do, you’d almost have to be throwing the game to do so.

Speaking of Kopitar, I’ve been flipping between the profiles of Stastny and Kopitar and I don’t think it’s close. Stastny looks to be the superior player, produces way more offense at EV and puts the puck in the right zone with similar-ish ice-time context.

by R O on Apr 20, 2010 4:05 PM MDT reply actions  

Those two are an interesting comparison because they basically have the exact same contract signed at about the same time. Over the last three years Kopitar has the better shot rate (shots for) and the better shot differential. This year Kopitar generated less EV offence in terms of points but his ONIce Sh% was 8.7% compared to 10.6% for Stastny. Do you think that effect is real? I think both are good players for sure and will maybe look at it more closely in the future but I have a hard time saying that it isn’t a close call one way or the other.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 20, 2010 5:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

Relative to the rest of his team, it appears Stastny has put up similar-to-better results in terms with generally similar-to-more-difficult icetime.

That’s valuable of course, though it shouldn’t necessarily punish guys like Kopitar who undeniably gets a few soft minutes here and there to help his team win (I’m thinking guys like Crosby, who’s just dominant in the PVP role by my eye but does pretty much everything but PK for his team anyway).

The kickers, are two things:

1.) Offense generated. When you get to three seasons I think the picture that EVPts/60 (relative to team, but with an eye towards that important 2.5 EV/60 threshold) paints becomes a good measure. And Stastny wins in this department I think. Especially when you consider linemates – Stastny has had Hejduk and Wolski over the three seasons but I believe he didn’t often play with Smyth and Sakic who played together, Kopitar has had the pick of LA’s (very good) forward litter I imagine. Kopitar makes his bread and butter on the PP which is valuable but undeniably easier than at EVs.

2.) Saw ‘em good – always dangerous, of course. But when I’ve watched Stastny (this series vs. S. J. excepted) he looks like a poor man’s Crosby in terms of his ability to be on the puck everywhere. Can’t say the same of Kopitar.

by R O on Apr 21, 2010 8:17 AM MDT up reply actions  

To further elaborate, I think it’s possible that Stastny might genuinely have a bigger influence on EV offence than Kopitar in terms of driving SH%, he’s been better at it for about three seasons now.

by R O on Apr 21, 2010 8:23 AM MDT up reply actions  

To the point of 10.6%? Maybe not quite to that extent, but surely a 1% advantage might be reasonable given how the results have shook out?

Possibly he got lucky over this three season stretch, too, that possibility is not out of the question. Still, results have held for a while.

by R O on Apr 21, 2010 8:24 AM MDT up reply actions  

How much of the Kings PP success can be attributed to luck?

Are they that skilled or they’ve been getting the bounces? Lot of rebound goals and screened shots.

by SJKel on Apr 20, 2010 4:24 PM MDT reply actions  

CBC last night said their PP is running at 50% efficiency.

Now that stat is not much useful except in the extremes, and this is one of those extremes. Even fi you’re getting a scoring chance every PP minute (which is twice what you’d expect from a good PP) then scoring on half of your PPs means scoring on one in every two scoring chances.

That’s just not sustainable.

by R O on Apr 20, 2010 4:33 PM MDT up reply actions  

I think right now it’s up to 7/12 (~58%), which is just unbelievable. It can’t be sustainable (praying, begging, hoping, pleading…)

by Passive Voice on Apr 21, 2010 1:25 AM MDT up reply actions  

Considering they’re shooting 35% on the power play some of it is definitely luck. That just isn’t sustainable. If they were average power play shooters (14.4%) they’d have about three goals based on their shot totals; they actually have seven. That said, three goals is still averaging one power play goal per game, so the Canucks still need to do a better job of limiting the shots against, letting Luongo see pucks, and clearing rebounds when they occur.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 20, 2010 5:01 PM MDT up reply actions  

Another great post. It does feel like the LA forwards are winning this series, and that Halpern and Modin as deadline pick ups have been helpful (although big salaries otherwise). The LA D after Doughty hasn’t impressed me, and I think the scoring chance charts bear that out.

I meant to ask on your last post: the definition of a scoring chance doesn’t include when a team doesn’t get a shot away. Do you know if that’s standard, meaning NHL teams and/or broadcast crews count it that way? You mentioned Doughty breaking up the Sedin 2 on 1 as an example. I don’t remember if they made it to the dots or not, but they seemed to be pretty close in. But I’m actually thinking of examples where a pass gets across and the receiver whiffs on the shot, sometimes where there’s an open net. You wouldn’t count any of these as scoring chances?

by antro on Apr 20, 2010 10:20 PM MDT reply actions  

I think only counting shots directed toward net is pretty standard. I generally don’t count whiffs on a pass because the player never had control of the puck. Things like odd-man rushes sometimes get counted separately because they’re obviously good “chances” even if they don’t meet this particular definition.

As for the L.A. defenders, they haven’t been impressive. Scuderi is fine in his role with Doughty and Johnson has been really good on the PP and in his more limited EV role. After that, it’s pretty darn grim.

by Scott Reynolds on Apr 20, 2010 10:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

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Clear Victory Standings

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