Canucks 3 Kings 2 - Game 1 Scoring Chances
When I set out to watch the series between the Kings and Canucks, one of the more exciting features was a chance to see old hands Smyth, Stoll and Gre... well, I'll be honest, Smyth and Stoll. And, yes, it was great to see Stoll score on the power play and Smyth taking punishment to make a play time and again but the whole game had a decidedly Edmonton-in-Dallas feel to it right down to the close-but-no-cigar loss in overtime. And as an Oilerskings fan, that's downright depressing. You want to know who I hate more than the Canucks? The late 90s and early 00s Dallas Stars. Dammit. A look at the game's scoring chances and some further analysis after the jump.
Scoring Chances
For those who'd like a definition: a scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots, though sometimes slightly more generous depending on the amount of immediately preceding puck movement or screens. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score. And, of course, a big thanks to Vic Ferrari for making the whole damn thing possible with his awesome script.
I'm pretty sure that the individual numbers didn't go through the program quite properly and I haven't yet had time to go through manually, but I'll make sure to add them when I get them. Looking at nhl.com, it looks like the TOI from the five minute major was counted as EV TOI and that ain't right so it's possible that the problem is with the way the data was entered on that end. Either way, individual numbers for this game may be posted later once some of the logistical stuff gets worked out.
Logistical issues aside, the chances paint an interesting game. The Canucks came out like their lives depended on scoring first. In the first period, they were simply dominant and yet couldn't score. Jonathan Quick was phenomenal, making a large number of very good saves to keep the game tied at zero going into the second. And in the second, it was largely a game of special teams on both sides which helped to lull the Canucks to sleep, or so it seemed. The major penalty to Andrew Alberts hurt the Canucks badly. It obviously gave the so-far hapless Kings an opportunity to tie the game, which they did but because Alberts also received a game misconduct, it also seemed to influence the Canucks' strategy as defenders weren't jumping into the play nearly as often and the Canucks went with a - to that point very effective when used - two-man fore-check (2-1-2) much less frequently. The result was a lot less chances on both sides of the puck and a downright boring third period. From the Alberts' penalty mid-way through the second period to the end of regulation there were only four scoring chances in total at even strength, each team with two and the Kings with none in the third. Things opened up again in overtime but the Canucks were unable to dominate like they were in the first period. In the end, however, the Cancuks came through. Henrik "Doesn't Deserve the Hart" Sedin made a beautiful pass to Mikael Samuelsson who made his shot to send the crowd home happy and me into a frenzy of holy profanity.
Update To Scoring Chances: I entered the data manually to come up with the individual scoring chance numbers for the game as well as the timing for all of the chances. Here we go:
Jesus-approved Sheep
3. Alexander Edler - He played an exciting game tonight with a lot of hitting and smart pinches which makes him an easy guy to pick. Along with Sami Salo he took on the Kings top line and did a fantastic job of shutting them down. In the third period, the Kings didn't have any chances, but they came close a few times. On one occasion, Roberto Luongo was caught swimming as Anze Kopitar danced with the puck. But Edler was able to stay in position and force Kopitar to the outside, where he wasn't even able to get a shot on goal.
2. Jonathan Quick - What a fantastic game from him. The Kings were bombarded in the first and Quick stood tall in goal. I've been cheering for the Oilers all season and I've got to say that it's nice to watch a goalie who's both positionally sound and able to make the great save. There was absolutely no doubt about the Kings' best player was tonight and that should put to rest any lingering doubts about whether or not Jonathan Bernier is going to get to start in this series (answer: no).
1. Henrik Sedin - He played a great game. In the first period the Sedins and Burrows looked unstoppable. They were winning battles and creating chances seemingly at will. Even in the rather dreary second half, the Canucks looked most dangerous with Henrik's group on the ice. Then there was the stick-stuck-in-helmet issue - a highlight for me to be sure. But, as so often happens, what made Henrik the game's best player was his best skill. He made a beautiful pass to his brother on the second goal and another outstanding feed to Mikael Samuelsson on the game-winner. A great game from Henrik.
Hell-bound Goats
3. Jack Johnson - He was bad. He wasn't all bad, but he panicked taking a puck-over-glass penalty which lead to a goal early in the second period and just generally didn't look confident with the puck. He played a little bit against everybody since Terry Murray apparently wasn't too concerned with getting the right match-up and when he was out against the Sedins, the end result wasn't pretty. In overtime, the result was the game-winning goal.
2. Justin Williams - He gave the puck away all night. It cost the Kings on the second Vancouver goal but that was most certainly not an isolated incident. He played on the Kings top line with Smyth and Kopitar and was clearly the worst player out there. On top of it all, he added a minor penalty to the mix. If the Kings are going to have a chance in this series, they're going to need better results from their top unit and Williams needs to be it.
1. Andrew Alberts - Two penalties on the night, one of them the major that changed the game. In Alberts' defence, it was difficult to know where the line was with the officials. There was plenty of stick-work, charging, and all-around mayhem before Alberts got tossed. Still, slamming a guy face first into the boards usually doesn't fly. The Canucks were dominant before Alberts smashed Brad Richardson head-first into the glass. Afterward, not so much. I don't know if there will be a suspension to Alberts but if I'm one of his Canuck team-mates, I'd be awfully tempted to send a tape over to the NHL.
Update After Individual Scoring Chances: Well, by the numbers Henrik Sedin - and that whole line - had a tremendous game so I damn well better have given at least one of them top honours. Sami Salo looks like he actually had a better game than Edler, though apparently Edler stood out more (and not just to me), but that's a fantastic result from Salo. On the Kings side, I'm happy to stick with Justin Williams as a goat and find it somewhat comical that the guy I saw bad was the one player to post a positive chance differential. The argument in the comments was over Johnson-Jones though it looks like from the numbers the pairing of Doughty-Scuderi is the one that the Kings really need to play better. Sure, Johnson-Jones looked exposed at times and just awful on the last goal but if Doughty-Scuderi aren't going to be able to handle the Sedins, LA is going to have a tough series ahead of them.
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Maybe I’m reading this wrong, but did the Kings get 8 SH or PP scoring chances in the 2nd? Given they got 2 PP goals, I’m guessing the latter.
This is great. I couldn’t watch the game b/c I’m in the middle of nowhere and the internet access isn’t strong enough to stream (to my great aggravation!). But looking at the score sheet, I assumed the Canucks were more dominant looking at shots (44 to 27) and corsi (60%). Having watched the game, what’s your take on the difference between the metrics?
I think there’s a fan movement to send the NHL a tape of Alberts, even though I agree it’s not the worse thing I’ve seen in a playoff.
Yeah, the Kings had eight PP chances in the second. The correlation between scoring chances and Corsi is interesting because in short samples they often don’t line up all that well, but over the long haul the two metrics comes together. In this particular game the Canucks got quite a lot of long shots in the third period but didn’t generate much in the way of actual offensive pressure or close chances. But the Canucks were certainly dominant in the first period at EV. I’ll be interested to see if they play more 2-1-2 once they have six defenders again. I’m assuming only having five bodies back there for half the game motivated the decision to hang back a bit more.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
You misspelled “reverse three stars”. Hope this helps.
Otherwise, great article!`
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 16, 2010 10:14 AM MDT reply actions
I liked your idea so much that I stole it and made it biblical. Think of yourself as the Wisdom of Amenemope to my Proverbs.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 11:22 AM MDT up reply actions
You like it until you have to do thirty of them, anyway…
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 16, 2010 1:33 PM MDT up reply actions
The Reverse Thirty Stars? That would be really helpful when covering the Oilers.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 16, 2010 1:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Randy Jones deserves a special spot close to the goatherd for his Brutal play in overtime that led to tthe winning goal. Couldn’t keep it in at the blueline, couldn’t do the simple thing and dump it back into the zone, I know! Just pass it right to one of the Sedins! That’ll end well …
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Alberts was a shoo-in for #1 and I really saw Williams bad on a number of occasions including the 2-1 GA. Johnson was the toughest inclusion and it wasn’t like his night was all bad. There were just a lot of mistakes mixed in. As you point out, the same thing is true of some other guys too. Randy Jones would have made an excellent candidate.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 11:24 AM MDT up reply actions
I definitely saw Jones worse than Johnson. I’m with Bruce, the whole sequence leading up to the winner was pretty much his fault. The broadcast guys pointed out that it was the first time the Sedins had gotten away from their D match, but did not mention that that happened basically because Jones made two egregious mistakes where the simple play was a pretty easy one. He dumps that back into the zone and the Kings can change for their matchup, instead of spending the next minute and a half running around their own zone and getting scored on.
Scott, thank you for the excellent work. I know watching the ’nucks is horribly painful work for you so the analysis is that much more appreciated.
I won’t be painful so long as I get to watch them lose :)
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
Of course Alberts won’t be suspended. It’s the playoffs and he’s not Pronger. Should be, though.
I didn’t watch this — wanted to, but I had MTL-WAS on tape delay and watched it instead, go Habs — but sounds like a hell of a game.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
The first period was really exciting. There were also the weird plays that become lore when they happen in the later rounds. The Luongo OT save may still become iconic, but not like it would if that was Game Seven.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 12:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Really? The playoofs aren’t over? That’s funny, cuz over on ’Nucks Misconduct BobbiLu just got awarded the Conn Smythe.
I would have loved to see the Kings get another shot on him while he was all tied up in his own stick.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 16, 2010 1:31 PM MDT up reply actions
:D
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 17, 2010 12:30 AM MDT up reply actions
Yeah, the Canadiens-Capitals game was actually really good, too. The Habs pretty much failed to show up for the first period, with Halak bailing them out, but as the game wore on, they got much better. There was one sequence late in the second where they controlled the puck in Washington’s end for the better part of about two minutes. Overtime consisted almost entirely of trading chances, which made it really quite enjoyable to watch, even when half-asleep due to illness. I still can’t imagine them actually winning the series, but it seems like Montreal matches up better with Washington than their point totals would indicate. Spacek and Hamrlik were excellent as the shut-down pairing against Ovechkin, especially Spacek, who always seemed to be right in his way when he tried to shoot.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I’ll have them up soon. With the change-over from the regular season the app seems to have a couple of kinks. If need be, I’ll just get the data up manually. It’ll just take some time.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 3:22 PM MDT up reply actions
Brilliant writeup
In Alberts’ defence, it was difficult to know where the line was with the officials. There was plenty of stick-work, charging, and all-around mayhem before Alberts got tossed. Still, slamming a guy face first into the boards usually doesn’t fly.
Absolutely correct. Canuck fans have been ripping Alberts a new one today, but it was a little crazy to see absolutely nothing called (probably most egregiously the high-stick on H Sedin), and then Alberts getting tossed. I thought when Richardson got up it would have been a 4 minute double-minor, but certainly couldn’t argue with the major. Just very inconsistent refereeing all night long.
Knights, Canucks, Dolphins, Jays and Raptors all the way.
It was a bad hit. It always looks worse when a big guy splats a smaller guy too. But he drove his arms through too.
Great breakdown Scott. I like hearing it from another viewpoint, and you came right out and told us there was few other teams you dislike.
Its totally cool though, because apart from the Hank/Hart thing ( he did have a great game huh? Confidence makes such a diff’ huh? )…you just looked at the game and gave us your concise and accurate breakdown.
Thx again.
Tyler or Taylor? ( I like Taylor, but you guys need a centre, right? )
http://intenttoblow.com/?p=448
Reporters asked Sedin how he could possibly have accomplished the feat.
"Look guys, I don’t know how to say this any other way, I’m really fucking fast. I’m like a greased up Pavel Bure that craps lightning," he said.
Thanks. Yeah, with the partisan stuff, I mostly like taking fun jabs without it colouring the analysis too, too much. As for the draft, I’ll need to look at it a lot more closely to come to a real conclusion but right now I’m leaning toward Taylor Hall as being the better pick. But there’s lots of time to overanalyze that over the next couple of months.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 16, 2010 10:52 PM MDT up reply actions

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