Oilers & The Lottery - Why I Want Them To Lose
by Derek Zona on Apr 13, 2010 1:00 PM MDT
in Opinion
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Times are hard getting harder
I'm born to lose and destined to fail
--"Ball and Chain", Mike Ness, Social Distortion
Tonight is the night that will determine the fate of the Oilers for the next 15 years. Or something. The NHL Lottery announcement comes tonight on Versus, TSN and NHL.com at 8 P.M. The Oilers have the best chance to win the first overall pick, as per NHL.com:
The Oilers go into Tuesday's drawing with a 25 percent chance of winning the Lottery. And if a team outside the bottom five in the standings wins the Lottery, the Oilers will get the top choice, improving their odds to 48.2 percent.
The team with the fewest points in the League has won the Draft Lottery the last two years. League rules also dictate that no team can move backward more than one spot, so the Oilers will have at least the first or second pick.
The draft is a two-horse race between Tyler Seguin and Taylor Hall. Central Scouting says Seguin, Bob McKenzie of TSN says Taylor Hall. I've not read an account of a single scout that has anyone but Seguin and Hall in the top two and after them is a bit of a falloff to number three. So it's in this context that the Oilers have to make a selection. They can't draft worse than second and according to the scouts, a nifty consolation prize awaits.
The Oilers are 48.2% to win the first pick and 51.8% for the second pick. Mark me down for hoping that the Oilers end up with the second-overall pick. Why would a real fan wish for that you ask? Well, since the summer of 2006, nearly everything the Oilers have laid their collective hands on has turned out very, very bad. I'm not going to rehash all of it, because we do that here on a regular basis, but the fact is, this team has a group of very poor decision makers from the President through the General Manager through the Assistant General Manager to the Vice President of Communications to the Head Coach. As a group, there have been no worse decision-makers in the NHL in the last three years. Individually, each of them has more black marks on their resumes than anyone not currently manning Sportsnet's expert panel. Give them a multiple choice test, they fail. Ask them to flip a coin, they call "edge". Give them a yes or no question and they answer "asset". They come to a fork in the road and drive off of a cliff.
Should the Oilers win the first overall pick, it's this group of men that are in charge of making the selection at the Podium in June. And that should send a shiver down everyone's spine, at least those that aren't already shivering because of Ryan Whitney. I understand the excitement around having the first pick, but even the greatest optimist among us can't deny the fact that this is a management team that could, and most likely will, screw up with the first pick. Even if they make the right pick, this crew will turn that pick into Jason Bonsignore during the development process.
Taking that first pick out of their hands would be the best way to guarantee that things go well. If Boston takes Seguin, Edmonton gets Hall and the rest is history. If Columbus gets Hall, the Oilers take Seguin and everyone goes home happy. There is no going back to criticize the pick, there is nothing to analyze - their hands are forced and the pick is brainless. There is nothing to screw up, there are no assets to collect, there are no trades to make. There are no tough decisions to make, and this management team has been choking on tough decisions for four years.
I've read in a number of places that getting the first overall pick would showcase the new decision-making ability of Steve Tambellini and prove to the fans he knows what he's doing. I've seen what this group is capable of - I don't want more proof. I don't need a showcase.
Here's to the puck (or ping pong ball) once again bouncing the wrong way for the Oilers and losing the draft lottery. It will be easier on everyone.
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you know derek the funny thing is that this what i was talking a couple of people yesterday. we dont get to choose and hence we dont have to go ahead and talk whether the management screwed up or not!
also i think boston takes hall and columbus takes seguin! lol
hah, that’s always the worry. “with the second overall pick, the edmonton oilers are proud to select Kirill Kabanov…”
by Passive Voice on Apr 13, 2010 1:14 PM MDT up reply actions
This line of thinking is a bit silly. It’s true that there wouldn’t be any navel-gazing or second-guessing (so long as they make the pick) and I’m sure there would be if they select first. Nevertheless, I don’t think there would be a whole lot to reasonably criticize if they take one of Hall or Seguin. Everyone knows that there are two players at the top of the draft and that there is significant disagreement about which is better. So unless they go off-board, the decision should remain understandable. And I’d prefer they take the guy they believe in. If there is one player who is clearly better now I’d prefer to rely on the Oiler scouting to identify him rather than rely on another team to screw up.
AND
You didn’t even mention the one tangible benefit to picking second! Roughly $250,000 cap savings in the bonus structure! (if past contracts are any indication) Sign me up!
And I’d prefer they take the guy they believe in
Khabibulin?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
But they can’t screw up like that unless they go off the board which they can do just as well at #2. In fact, they’re even more likely to do it if the guy they really wanted is already gone. I’m very pleased that they won the lottery because it means they’re more likely to use the pick and they’ll get the guy they want. If you’re worried they’ll take the wrong guy, why would you assume they’d get the right one if they were picking at #2?
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 13, 2010 11:23 PM MDT up reply actions
So what you are saying is, we should all just drink the punch and give this the hockey team the cult-style suicide it deserves?
I’ll take the gin & tonic flavored punch, please.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m assuming you filed this one under “Opinion” cuz we don’t have a section for “Flawed Logic” or “Ironic Humour”. If the first pick goes to a team that knows what they’re doing, they’ll pick the best player and we’ll get the other guy (or someone else). Whereas if we flip a coin we have a shot at getting the better guy.
More importantly, if we’re going to screw up the #1 overall pick during the developmental stage of his career, doesn’t that equally apply to the #2 overall pick?
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
see the point here is that the hockey world is divided on the front of who the best player is! who the oilers consider to be BPA will be different from who Columbus or Tampa Bay think.
Columbus will probably go for Seguin and Tampa for Hall. So BPA is not clear in the draft
Secondly screwing over the 2nd or even 3rd overall is more easily forgiven that 1st overall. Everyone remembers diagle and stefan, but not many care about Alex svitov or David Legwand or kyle turris(not calling him a bust, but just saying that his progression hasnt warranted his draft pedigree yet).
If most teams consider these guys pretty close to even, then Organizational need comes into play here.
Boston probably wants Hall (given they have Savard, Bergeron and Krejci up the middle).
Columbus (the only other team who could potentially pick behind Edmonton) probably would prefer Seguin (given they have guys like Nash, Filitov, etc).
Either would make a good trading partner.
More importantly, if we’re going to screw up the #1 overall pick during the developmental stage of his career, doesn’t that equally apply to the #2 overall pick?
Yup, but at least there won’t be Parise-style hand-wringing over it.
I’ll admit. I’ve given up hope.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
But if we lose the lottery and #1 turns out to be BPA, management can blame our rotten luck on losing the lottery. Whereas if they pick The Wrong Guy, that’s actually on them.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 13, 2010 4:02 PM MDT up reply actions
As a group, there have been no worse decision-makers in the NHL in the last three years.
Dale Tallon and the rest of the Blackhawks 2009 offseason management group would like to respectfully disagree with your notion, but have failed to file the proper paperwork with the NHL on time.
At least he had the sense not to re-sign Khabibulin.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Ness Rules
I’d just like to point out that
Social Distortion’s “White Light, White Heat”
is one of Rock N Roll’s best albums ever
I’d take it in the Top 10 fer sure
Imma let you finish, but Social Distortion had one of the best albums of all time?
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 13, 2010 4:48 PM MDT up reply actions
Social Distortion is one of the best all-time, period.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
So over the last 15 years data from TSN, we can see that team finishing last has won the lottery 5 times out of 14 where the system was used. That gives a ratio of 0.357. Now as we know that the team finishing last should have a .481 chance of winning it. So right now there have to be many #30 teams winning the lottery to bring the .357 ratio up. So as of now based of sheer law of averages, our chances of winning the lottery is higher than .481
The horrible thing is, I fully believe that Steve Tambellini believes in the gambler’s fallacy.
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 13, 2010 5:33 PM MDT up reply actions
one night in the casino is a small sample size. if you end up playing a game of sheer odds(not poker) for over a very very long time ur win% will start to mirror the success rate of the game.
But that doesn’t mean the chances are better than what they were originally on any one try. In the draft case, the chance is still .481 every time. A short run of .357 would become statistically insignificant given enough tries but bad luck early does not mean that you will see good luck later.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 14, 2010 12:20 PM MDT up reply actions
If you want a bigger sample size, think of a coin flip.
Each individual flip has a 50-50 outcome, but the outcome before your current flip has no bearing on the outcome of your current flip. Much like the outcome of your current flip has no bearing on the outcome of your next flip.
You are expecting that at some point the odds will chang, but that isn’t the case. Each result will has a 50-50 chance that is completely independant of the last result.
The shear laws of averages dictate that the #30 team should win 48.1% of the time. That is completely independant of every other draft lottery in the past. The Oilers odds are no higher than that. The fact that the #30 team hasn’t won 48.1% of the time has no bearing on the Oilers specific chances this time around.
“Very long time” as in, if you could go to the casino for a billion nights. Fifteen drafts is way too small of a sample for the law of averages to apply. Like Ben said, thinking you can predict the future based on past, unrelated results is the gambler’s fallacy. God, do I ever love Wikipedia.
I would like to congratulate the Oilers on the 1st pick in the Draft.
It will be fun and sad seeing either Hall or Seguin 6 times a year
It's a sad day for the Oilers
Playoffs about to start and fans were gathered to watch the Draft Lottery instead of a hockey game.
But I dare say it will be a wonderful day to be an Oilers fan on the day you guys draft Taylor Hall. And a sad day for Canuck fans who will have to start hating the guy.
"We love them, We mourn for them, Unlucky boys of Red" - Morrissey
"Giggs gets past Viera, past Dixon, who comes back at him, it's a wonderful run from GIGGS!!!" - Martin Tyler
"He's got a man deep..wait, no that IS Mandeep!!" - Don Taylor
by Section 312 on Apr 13, 2010 6:31 PM MDT reply actions
Derek, has anyone ever told you how negative you are?
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 13, 2010 9:06 PM MDT reply actions
You guys should listen to some Bruce Springsteen while drinking your sorrows. I did last year, when Ottawa missed the playoffs.
Everything dies, baby, that’s a fact
But maybe everything that dies someday comes back
Put your makeup on, fix your hair up pretty
And meet me tonight in Atlantic City Edmonton
by Peter Raaymakers on Apr 13, 2010 9:23 PM MDT reply actions
We don’t need music to drink around here. Four years makes drinking our sorrows away second nature.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve been dazed and confused for so long it’s not true
Wanted a winner, never bargained for you
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Apr 14, 2010 5:28 PM MDT up reply actions
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