The Upside Down Senators And Their Goaltending Problems
by Derek Zona on Mar 9, 2010 1:00 PM PST
in Statistical Analysis
21 comments
The Ottawa Senators have climbed into 5th place in the Eastern Conference despite a goal differential of -8. If the Oilers 7-7-1 record against the Eastern Conference wasn't a large enough indicator of how awful the East is this year, the fifth and eighth place teams in the East have negative goal differentials. For a bit of contrast, the Kings are 5th in the Western Conference with a +25 goal differential. Even though the Sens aren't strong by the numbers, the run up the standings has stirred some excitement in Ottawa, excitement that was buoyed on by General Manager Bryan Murray's trade for playoff veteran Matt Cullen.
In an extreme case of excitement, Silver Seven, SB Nation's Ottawa Senators site, recently had a user-submitted FanPost comparing the 2010 team to the 2007 Stanley Cup Finals team. The post was an interesting take and the writer's descriptions of the lines made me take a look at the underlying numbers in Ottawa this season and what I found was curious. We dive into Gabriel Desjardins' Behind The Net and Vic Ferrari's timeonice.com after the jump.
SB Nation's Senators vs Oilers coverage
For the year, Ottawa has been outscored 124-134 (-10) at even strength, even though they've posted a team Corsi of .519. The team even strength save percentage of .905 is pretty terrible -- with a .920 at even strength, the Senators outscore 124-102 (+22). Foligno has somehow managed a .951 ES save percentage while on the ice - whatever he is bribing the Ottawa goaltenders with should be standard fare in the room. Perhaps the Antoine Vermette for Pascal Leclaire deal wasn't the saving grace that Bryan Murray thought it was.
|
Player |
GP |
ES TOI |
QC |
QT |
Corsi RQC |
CorsiQC |
Corsi On |
ZS |
GD |
|
59 |
10.96 |
-0.035 |
-0.008 |
-0.461 |
-0.536 |
19.58 |
58.7 |
3 |
|
|
58 |
10.86 |
-0.029 |
0.121 |
-0.006 |
-0.098 |
12.48 |
60 |
-7 |
|
|
52 |
11.33 |
-0.071 |
-0.007 |
-0.477 |
-0.566 |
7.64 |
57 |
0 |
|
|
48 |
12.59 |
-0.024 |
0.102 |
0.366 |
-0.024 |
2.98 |
54.5 |
14 |
|
|
66 |
11.64 |
-0.049 |
-0.185 |
-0.07 |
-0.01 |
2.81 |
55.3 |
-8 |
|
|
59 |
13.38 |
0.149 |
0.005 |
1.214 |
0.718 |
1.29 |
52.7 |
-10 |
|
|
66 |
11.11 |
-0.08 |
-0.25 |
-0.228 |
-0.236 |
1.23 |
55.8 |
-7 |
|
|
65 |
12.73 |
0.05 |
0.041 |
0.517 |
-0.622 |
0.73 |
50 |
-2 |
|
|
63 |
14.53 |
0.021 |
0.199 |
0.595 |
0.247 |
0.46 |
53.2 |
1 |
|
|
64 |
13.79 |
0.062 |
0.205 |
0.964 |
0.842 |
-1.09 |
50.5 |
4 |
|
|
44 |
14.54 |
0.116 |
-0.09 |
1.055 |
1.124 |
-2.16 |
52.8 |
-4 |
|
|
54 |
13.52 |
0.194 |
0.005 |
1.636 |
1.796 |
-2.79 |
54.7 |
0 |
*Matt Cullen's numbers were mostly tallied in Carolina, so they don't count here.
Even though they are mired in goaltending problems, Ottawa has other troubles. Ottawa's big money players are facing the tough minutes and being slightly outshot and outscored at even strength. The bottom of their lineup is outshooting the opponents, and except for Nick Foligno's outstanding goalie luck, being outscored at even strength.
Interestingly enough though - put Michalek - Spezza - Alfredsson together and you get...
...an outshooting power vs. power line. Silver Seven blames Spezza a bit as the article said "Spezza’s game seemed to decline until fairly recently, when he finally realized he could shoot the puck." but in reality the Senators are flawed from top-to-bottom. The goaltending is bad, the defense is thin and the best forwards on the team can't handle tough minutes, even in the East.
0 recs |
21 comments
|
Email
Print
Comments
The 8.5 million cap hit between Cheechoo and Kovalev could undoubtedly be spent on improving the goaltending or defense… Probably both.
It’ll be interesting to see how their defense fares next season when Volchenkov leaves because they cannot re-sign him due to the two aforementioned anchor contracts.
- Jon K
They’ve already got Cheechoo in the minors. If they’re willing to keep him there, I can’t see any reason for them not to keep Volchenkov unless they decide he isn’t worth it. With Cheechoo in the minors, they can no doubt afford 4M for Volchenkov and if it’s going to cost more than that I wouldn’t blame them for letting him walk.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 9, 2010 3:44 PM PST up reply actions
I didn’t realize they’d already demoted him after he was waived. Tough sledding for him I suppose. Either way I can’t see how Eugene Melnyk can be pleased with Murray taking two guys on who make a combined 8.5 who don’t really address the team needs.
From my understanding, Melnyk was a huge supporter of the Kovalev deal
At the time of the deal, Murray talked about how Eugene was very high on the idea of Kovalev coming to Ottawa. He loves Kovalev. At events for season ticket holders, Melnyk wears a #27 jersey.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
I bet Kovalev’s agent loves Melnyk.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Heh, maybe
He was going to get the same deal from Montreal, though. Gainey said so.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
Also...
Kovalev is 2nd in points on the team and tied for third in goals. How does he not address needs?
Kovalev’s deal is not a great contract by any means, but the Senators had to fill goalscoring (considering they knew they would lose Heatley, but didn’t know who they’d fill him with) and were somewhat desperate.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
I know it’s not really a big deal but Cheechoo has a cap hit of 3M, Kovalev 5M for 8M combined. And yeah, if I were Melnyk I would have turfed Murray already. Hartsburg was a very bad hire (but, to his credit, he fixed that one quickly) and then the Leclaire trade was poor. He’s also signed a lot of questionable deals (Fisher, Neil, the aforementioned Kovalev and possibly the star contracts given to Spezza and Heatley). There really aren’t a lot of big impact contracts where he’s gotten a good deal.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 9, 2010 4:09 PM PST up reply actions
I’ll admit that it’s weird, but I agree with most of what you say, and yet I’m still a Murray supporter. Neil, Fisher, Spezza, and Kuba all seem like they’ve got inflated contracts, Leclaire hasn’t been as advertised, and the return on Heatley was awful. Still, the four overpaid guys mentioned are playing well this year—Neil in particular is earning his money—Vermette wasn’t working in Ottawa, and wasn’t going to help our goaltending (plus the draft pick used to select prospect Robin Lehner was also a part of that deal), and Murray had little choice in taking Michalek and Cheechoo in the Heatley deal. I may just be making excuses for my favourite team, but I’m alright with what Murray’s done with the team.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 9, 2010 6:05 PM PST up reply actions
I guess it depends what you mean by supporter. In one sense I’m a Steve Tambellini supporter because I hope he makes good decisions and will be happy if he does so. In another sense I’m as far from a Tambellini supporter as one can be because I see a pattern of poor decisions from his work so far and expect he’ll do poorly. So, are you a supporter because you want him to succeed or because you think he’ll succeed? If it’s the latter, what decisions has he made that you look at and think “That was a great deal for the Sens”?
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 9, 2010 6:31 PM PST up reply actions
His drafting
Murray seems to have made some seriously great draft decisions, although it’s far too early to tell.
Leclaire was heralded as a great deal at the time, and his deal to give up Meszaros for Kuba, Picard and SJ’s 1st was a very good one.
Silver Seven: the Daniel Alfredsson of Ottawa Senators blogs.
I forgot about the Meszaros trade and that one does look pretty good, although I do like Meszaros just fine. They also got Campoli with that pick, didn’t they? That was a pretty nice deal too.
The draft history is difficult for me to evaluate because he’s only been in charge for the last two years, maybe three, though I imagine he didn’t have much impact on the 2007 draft since he was only hired a few days beforehand. As you say, it’s very early returns and, for me, a couple of good trades and a draft record that could be above average isn’t enough to save him. But hey, he’s your GM so I probably shouldn’t complain :)
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 10, 2010 7:11 AM PST up reply actions
I think it should be enought to save him . . though I am probably pretty biased, considering I’m a Sens fan. Murray walked into a system of bad contracts and a gutted prospect pool. In just a couple years he has nearly replenished that pool and made several good trades. I still think that at the time, the Vermette for Leclaire/second rd pick was great. The pick is now Robin Lehner and Leclaire, well, he’s had some horrible luck this year. (two concussions caused by Fisher? that’s just brutal) In the Heatley deal, even getting Michalek was good considering the circumstances. Although I still would have loved if he had gone to Edmonton and we’d gotten Cogliano – the kid’s good.
Now see, if I were a Sens fan I would want to see him fired. As for Murray walking into a system of bad contracts, I don’t see it. What bad contracts were present when he arrived? I count Gerber, Emery and I’m done. He also had some pretty nice ones when he arrived in Phillips and Volchenkov and he had some stars up front. It was a pretty good situation overall.
I’m really not sold on the Leclaire trade, mostly because I don’t think Leclaire is a good goalie. I said so at the time. It was terrible. As for the prospects, we’ll see if they turn into anything useful or not but you are right that they sure didn’t have any blue-chippers before he arrived. From 2003 to 2006 I only count Elliott, Eaves, Regin, Meszaros and Foligno as guys who have helped the Senators win at one time or another. Five guys in four years isn’t great and some of those are pretty marginal and Brian Lee in 2005 is looking like a pretty huge miss considering they had Kopitar and Staal both staring them in the face with both ranked higher by the scouting services. Still, 2007 looks bleak and 2008 and 2009 haven’t had enough time to bear fruit.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 10, 2010 10:38 AM PST up reply actions
There weren't really bad contracts when Murray came in
There was the Gerber contract, and you could argue the Redden contract, but that was really it. Murray himself signed the Emery contract, but I don’t see how you could blame him for that considering the two years Emery had just played.
My biggest concern with Murray’s contracts was the amount devoted to Spezza, Alfredsson, and Heatley—they had a disproportianate amount of the cap, and left little room to fill out the team with necessary depth. But that’s behind us now (even if it wasn’t by choice), and the Senators have some of the best forward depth they’ve ever had.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 10, 2010 12:11 PM PST up reply actions
Ah yes, Kopitar and Staal.
*Smashes face against wall.
Oh well, what’s done is done, however much it might suck.
Heh. It sounds like those that follow the Sens are well aware of those two names. But that wasn’t a Murray draft anyway and as you say, what’s done is done.
As to Peter’s point, I forgot about the Redden contract but it ran its course in one season which gave him some flexibility going forward. And you’re right about Emery. The market tends to pay some medium goalies in the 3M range, though I’m surprised more GM’s don’t avoid that and try to go at least 1M cheaper taking someone off the UFA market.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 10, 2010 5:00 PM PST up reply actions
ya . . . you can just go ahead and disregard what I said about the contracts, lol I have no idea what I was going on about.
And you’re right about the goalie thing, there’s almost always a good goalie or two come summer. Heck, look what Anderson has done in Colorado.
Good blog btw, I’ll have to start coming here to read your articles more often.
The statistical anomaly of the Ottawa Senators boggles the mind
Worse goal differential than any other playoff team
Terrible road record, worse than any other playoff team
Powerplay ranked 26 in the NHL
Tenth-most penalized team in the leage
Leading point-scorer is 45th in the league
Leading goal scorer is 42nd
Leading assist scorer is 40th
Top defensive scorer is 38th
Top goalie is 30th in SP, 20th in GAA, 16th in wins
I guess their standing probably has a lot to do with the weaker Eastern Conference, but it’s certainly a strange situation. A strange situation which I hope continues.
by Peter Raaymakers on Mar 9, 2010 6:18 PM PST reply actions
I think Ottawa’s stats are pretty deceptive. Ottawa is where they are because no one player has carried the team for the whole season. Fisher and Michalek carried the team in the early part of the season. As Fisher started tailing off Kovalev started putting up points. Spezza was pretty much injured the first half of the season and came back from knee injury actually healed from the lingering back issues he’d played through. Alfie was out for awhile there, so really the scoring stats are out of which because of either injury or inconsistency.
It seems Ottawa tends to win close, but lose lopsided a fair bit. They haven’t been blowing too many teams out this year, mainly because their top line no longer has that 4 and 5 goal nights like back in the Pizza Line days.
by modsuperstar on Mar 10, 2010 9:40 AM PST up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
Related FanPosts on The Copper & Blue
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recent FanPosts
Northwest Standings
Oilers Schedule
Next 5 Games
Calgary
|
Thu 10/07 | 7:00 PM PDT |
|
Florida
|
Sun 10/10 | 5:00 PM PDT |
|
@
Minnesota
|
Thu 10/14 | 5:30 PM PDT |
|
@
Calgary
|
Sat 10/16 | 7:00 PM PDT |
|
Minnesota
|
Thu 10/21 | 6:00 PM PDT |
Last 5 Games
|
@
Anaheim
|
Sun 04/11 | L 2 - 7 |
|
@
Los Angeles
|
Sat 04/10 | SO - W 4 - 3 |
|
Colorado
|
Wed 04/07 | OT - W 5 - 4 |
|
Minnesota
|
Mon 04/05 | W 4 - 1 |
|
@
Phoenix
|
Sat 04/03 | SO - L 2 - 3 |
Certain photos copyright © 2010 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
