Derek Boogaard's Value
by Derek Zona on Mar 5, 2010 1:23 PM PST
in Analysis
19 comments
He's huge. He's mean. He's ugly. He turns like a oil tanker in open water. He throws hands like an angry Norse god. He's Derek Boogaard, enforcer extraordinaire for the Minnesota Wild. Depending on who you ask around the NHL, Boogaard has been the most effective enforcer and fighter in the NHL for a number of years because unlike Georges Laraque, Boogaard goes out of his way to hurt people. With an elbow here, a knee there, and a forearm over there to go with his fists, Boogaard's time on the ice is rarely low-event, but does his time spent striking fear in the hearts of lesser men throughout the NHL worth it? Do his fists cover the goals against? Let's investigate below the jump.
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While researching an upcoming article on the value of goons, I compiled the goals for and goals against data for all goons over the last three years and found that the average yearly even strength +/- of an NHL goon is -6 in just under 6:00 minutes of even strength time per game. As Tyler at MC79hockey has shown, a differential of just shy of six goals is approximately one win or loss per year. Compare that to the performances of other 4th liners around the league and on his team. the average yearly even strength +/- of an NHL 4th liner is -3.5 in just over 9 minutes of even strength time per game, including time spent with the goon on ice. So the average goon costs his team one loss per year. Is Boogaard better or worse than that?
Over three seasons, in 713:37 of icetime, Boogaard has accumulated a -11 goal differential, including an awful -9 in 285:02 this season. In his short stints on the ice, Boogard has cost his team about two wins over the last three years. His minutes have been butter soft - he's never played anything more difficult than bottom line minutes and his Corsi has been mostly terrible as you can see above.
Boogaard has less time on ice per game over the last three years than the average goon - 5:09 per game to be exact. He was especially protected under ex-coach Jacques Lemaire, averaging about 4:30 per game. New coach Todd Richards has given him a couple of extra shifts per game and bumped his ice time. Boogard's Corsi has improved slightly, though it's likely that he will regress to the negative double digits sometime soon, but his EV sv pct is pretty terrible - he ranks 334 out of 338 forwards in on ice sv pct.
Essentially, Boogard's results are no better or worse than your average goon, that is, terrible. Against the softest possible competition, he spends his time in his own zone, giving up shots against. He tries to hurt people and pick a fight and costs his team about a win per year.
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I think a better analysis of how much a goon helps or hurts his team would be looking at win% or goal differential when he plays vs. when he doesn’t. that takes into account the intangible factor. e.g. when the Oil play Minny with the boogeyman they are even more scared and soft then otherwise…..hypothetically resulting in a more passive game and better chance to lose.
I correlated fighting with all sorts of measures (wins, losses, points, GF, etc). There was no significant correlation, at least not that season.
I seriously doubt the “intangibles” are more valuable than the obviously tangible deficits goons bring to the ice.
I’m not sure how you end up concluding that the average goon costs his team one win per year, at least in terms of the math. Are you just going by the individual’s on-ice goal differential and attributing him as the most prominent cause the dividing by six?
The average goon numbers will be brought out in the future post.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
By the way, thanks for asking this question on the private email thread when I asked a month ago, rather than asking it in public.
Oh, wait.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Wow Derek. Sorry about that, I just didn’t think of it in the email I guess. Didn’t think it would be a big deal to ask here.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 5, 2010 9:21 PM PST up reply actions
Do you suppose there’s any relationship between Boogaard’s lousy on-ice Sv% and Boogaard’s lousy defence?
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
I mean, shit, even Patrick O’Sullivan made him look like a tool.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 5, 2010 2:48 PM PST up reply actions
Well I’m off to the game, so out of the GDT. I’ll do the post-game and file a scouting report of the new guys later on.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Hmmmm...
I am not a big defender of Boogaard’s but this is about as harsh a critique as I have seen.
Boogaard has been playing the best hockey of his career this season. He has missed goals by mere inches, had some beautiful deflections stopped by phenomenal goaltending. I am not trying to argue that he guy is going to turn into Ovechkin, but he has been playing much better than he was ever allowed to under Lemaire.
As for knees, elbows, etc. I know I am going to be taken as having an obvious bias, but I have seen very little of this in his career. Like any enforcer type, he has his share of plays I would question. He has been suspended, much like most enforcers. I have certainly seen him get his elbows up on occasion, but knees? I can’t say I have seen that.
As for going out and looking for a fight? Unless you are Darcy Horidchuk, I can;t say that I have ever seen him seek out a fight. Sure, that is his role, but the fights I see him get into are one of three types. 1. Pre-arranged with another enforcer, such as Parros. 2. Some idiot thinking he can go toe-to-toe with Boogaard, such as Todd Fedoruk. 3. Some moron agitator that takes liberties and then drops with Boogey only to fall into the fetal position and pray for death, such as Darcy Hordichuk.
I know Boogey’s type of play is on it’s way out in the NHL. It is unpopular to support the enforcer type, and especially useless to attempt to defend them to an opposing team, especially against a division rival’s fans.
Just keep in mind. If he were wearing the Copper and Blue, you would love him as much as we do.
I think the “kneeing” comment probably comes from a game earlier this year where he (IMO intentionally) kneed Patrick O’Sullivan. We don’t see him all that much but one of the few times we did this year, he made a dirty play and given the reputation and viewings in past years it sticks in the mind.
As for the “shoe on the other foot” argument, if he were wearing Copper and Blue we’d all hate him and complain loudly except for possibly Bruce. On top of being a bad hockey player he takes a LOT of penalties which hurts the team’s ability to win games. I’m not convinced by Derek’s math above (but he might explain it more fully yet) but I am convinced that Boogaard is a below replacement level hockey player that I would never want on my team.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 5, 2010 5:36 PM PST up reply actions
I hate him and complain loudly when he cheap shots and injures yet another Oiler. Jones is at least the fifth Oiler Boogaard has directly injured in the last four years.
I wouldn’t want him within 1000 miles of the Oilers because he is a useless hockey player. I like crust and all but my whole point that I’ve made over and over again is you need tough guys who can play at least a little bit. Boogaard can’t.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 5, 2010 10:17 PM PST up reply actions
So it’s confirmed then, we’d all hate him. Good to know.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 6, 2010 7:30 AM PST up reply actions
See… I try to defend the caveman, and he goes out and hits Jones knee on knee.
Thanks Boogey. Make me look like an idiot.
We’re like Kurri’s blessed children here.
Do not argue with the blessed.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
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