Trade Target - Braydon Coburn (D - PHI)
This is another in our ongoing series about players that the Oilers should target in the process of transforming their roster at the trade deadline to solidify the team for a Stanley Cup run.
The Oilers defensive transition isn't complete. The rebuilding club still has a 33-year old defenseman making $5.4 million per year and two years left on that deal. Moving him and replacing him with a younger physical defenseman that fits in the "recovery" window should be one of Steve Tambellini's highest priorities in the off-season.
"There are certain guys on this team that are going to be back here next year," Holmgren said. "And there are certain guys who aren't." "So if the season ended today, you have a pretty good idea of what you would do?" I asked. "Most of it, yeah," he said. Holmgren later spoke of "evaluations" and of being "at the point now where we have to stop making excuses."
--Sam Donnellon, Philadelphia Daily News Columnst
Donnellon goes on to say "...A kind assessment of the Flyers is that they are still a young team in transition, plagued with inconsistencies. Is it Richards' fault that Ray Emery got hurt or that Braydon Coburn took one giant step backwards..."
Braydon Coburn fills the Oilers' need perfectly - he's 25 years old, he's got 291 NHL games under his belt, he's physical, has played tough minutes, and kills penalties. Coburn has suffered through two bizarre injuries, a lacerated buttocks artery and a laceration to the face that required 50 stitches to close. In spite of both injuries, he's been very durable - he's missed on 13 games in the last three years. Coburn's underlying stats are below:
Two years ago, Coburn teamed with both Derian Hatcher and sometimes Kimmo Timonen to form a top-pairing that took on the tough minutes night in and night out, and the did it successfully. Last year, Coburn was paired with Matthew Carle, and though not as effective as the previous year, Coburn continued to outscore top line opponents. This season has been a different story. Coburn has played about half of his even strength minutes with Timonen and the rest has been split between the rest of the Flyers defensive corps. Coburn's qualcomp has decreased and he's not coming out on top against second and third minutes.
Coburn's penalty killing effectiveness has bottomed out this year as well. In 2007 and 2008, he was Phildelphia's most effective penalty killer. This season, Coburn has been Philly's least effective penalty killer.
So if his game has fallen off so much, why should the Oilers target him? He's proven he can play at a high level in the NHL before and he will likely do so again. But targeting him now would be buying low - something that the Oilers rarely do - okay, never do. Buying low should reduce his trade cost and his upcoming contract as well.
What would Coburn cost the OIlers? Holmgren has indicated that he's got some people in his sights and they are already as good as gone. Is Coburn one of them? I doubt it. He's still young, and has a wonderful pedigree, plus a couple of years of very good results. But then again, Coburn is a restricted free agent this summer and Philadelphia might decide against paying Coburn, considering their cap situation and the falloff in his play. I honestly have no idea what it would take to bring Coburn in. A player in a similar range - Denis Grebeshkov - went for a second pick. Coburn has a better history but he's coming off of a down year. I wonder if we could reach a consensus in the comments.
Once the Oilers have Coburn in the fold, how much is his RFA contract going to cost? When Bruce and Jonathan argued the arbitration case of Denis Grebeshkov, they turned up a number of comparable contracts for Coburn.
|
Player |
Term |
Average Salary ($MM) |
|
4 years |
3.438 |
|
|
4 years |
3.550 |
|
|
4 years |
3.250 |
|
|
4 years |
3.500 |
|
|
4 years |
3.750 |
|
|
6 years |
4.000 |
|
|
3 years |
3.500 |
|
|
3 years |
4.000 |
|
|
5 years |
4.200 |
|
|
4 years |
3.875 |
|
|
Average |
4.1 yrs |
3.706 |
Toss in Kris Letang's new $3.5 million per year contract and I think that Coburn's deal might come in just around that average - 4 years, $3,750,000 per season. Bringing Coburn aboard would mean that Sheldon Souray can be dealt away and that rugged defenseman is still on the team and now in the correct age group. A core group of Ryan Whitney, Tom Gilbert, Braydon Coburn, Ladislav Smid and a couple of cheap veterans is a perfect foundation to build on for the next four years.
UPDATE: From Broad Street Hockey comes this bit of news:
Now, on to Coburn. Fish is reporting that the Flyers defenseman "directed his agent" to defer contract talks until the end of the season. He's a restricted free agent following this season and Flyers reportedly offered him a contract.
0 recs |
12 comments
|
Comments
I have always liked Coburn and I was very sirprised to see him do so bad this season. Instead of a pick, i think a prospect like Chorney and a 3rd round pick should do it! Also abotu paying Cobrun, I dont think he should cost more than 3 million.
you are using optimist as a sugar coated word for idiot arent you? lol
Well this is my reasoning. Most trades are not balanced. Also often a player is traded based on perception and potential than performance. Many people will see Chorney’s stats and say that ok this is because he is a very young player on a terrible team. Many still consider him to be one of our top prospects and hence his value will always be about a 2nd rounder. And this is what Flyers want a cheap young player to play on their third pairing. It doesnt matter what we think. In the ends up on how high they think of the player.
Flyers fan perspective:
Coburn is certainly an interesting situation. He has had a disappointing season, starting out the season horribly but has slowly gotten better. However, he has not reached the expectations that the Flyers have had for him especially after putting the Flyers on his back, along with Kimmo Timonen, during the 07-08 Playoffs (of which, many Flyers fans believe that if both Timonen and Coburn had not gotten hurt, the Flyers had a very good chance of beating the Penguins in the ECF).
With that said, I still think Coburn has the potential to be an elite defensemen in the NHL. I think a lot of his “step backward” has to do with the way the Flyers have digressed over the these last two years and how despite, on paper, this team should be a Cup contender and isn’t. Really, for a team with a “win now” mindset, (See: Acquiring EDM “fan favorite” Chris Pronger, for example) whose only consistent theme throughout the year has been inconsistent play, this season has been a huge failure for the Flyers. I think the Flyers’ problems hinge on something intangible and whatever that “problem” is, is affecting the entire team, as well as Coburn. Coburn hasn’t lost his physical attributes. He is still an awesome skater, a good puck mover, has good speed and a decent defender. But, I think he has not gotten better mentally or in his “hockey smarts” ; i.e. anticipation, positioning, making smart plays and when to attack defensively and when to contain defensively. He has all the physical requirements to be a great defensemen but hasn’t made the mental jump, if that makes any sense.
In a sense, I think that being with the Flyers over the past two seasons has “stunted” Coburn’s development which may be an explanation for why he has not gotten better after showing amazing potential two seasons ago.
Honestly, I do not want to see Coburn leave the Flyers. He is still young and, like I said, has what it takes to be a top tier defender in the league. I know that our GM, Paul Holmgren, thinks highly of Coburn and wants to resign him to be a core member of our defense for years to come. But, with his disappointing season, Holmgren may find himself in a serious bind. Coburn will want a raise, which would be hard to justify after this disappointing season. Also, we have serious goalie issues (surprise, surprise) and Homer may sacrifice resigning Coburn in order to have money for a goalie. Coburn has also been talked about as serious trade bait.
So, as a Flyers fan who has watched Coburn play for the last 3 seasons, I would certainly recommend that the Oilers go after Coburn. He would, from what I can tell, be a nice fit, especially, for the Oilers and I think there is a good chance that you would really see him blossom upon leaving the Flyers.
I hope this is somewhat of a help for you guys into understanding Coburn.
@Mitchman88 on Twitter
Homer may sacrifice resigning Coburn in order to have money for a goalie.
I know! Khabibulin for Coburn!
(Hey, Philly is one of the few teams out there with less of a clue about goalies than we are.)
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 31, 2010 9:05 PM PDT up reply actions
Uh, Braydon Coburn?
Are you absolutely sure?
Eastern Conferencer!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 31, 2010 8:14 PM PDT reply actions
Marginal Flyer,
and a worse Thrasher than that.
Why spend the money?
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 31, 2010 8:20 PM PDT up reply actions
Lots of potential
Is in every last place team.
Hope doesn’t get you wins.
by Benjamin Massey on Apr 1, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
I like Coburn but don’t think he’s established himself as much as some of the other defenders I mentioned a few days ago. On the other hand, he may cost a bit less because of it and he is a little bit younger so has more prime years ahead of him. I’m not sure what it would cost to bring him over from Philly but my guess would be a cheap roster player with some potential going forward. Ladislav Smid looks like a good fit from a Philadelphia perspective but that’s probably not the player the Oilers want to move.

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