Jimmy Howard - Your Hart Trophy Winner
by Derek Zona on Mar 30, 2010 1:30 PM MDT
in Analysis
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PrintI don't have a vote for the end of season NHL awards and I doubt that the PHWA is close to awarding me one. I do, however, have a vote in the SB Nation version of the NHL awards that will be cast at the end of the season. I'm not sure who I'm voting for in the race for all of the trophies, but I know for certain that I'm casting my vote for the Hart Memorial Trophy for most valuable player in the NHL for Detroit goaltender Jimmy Howard.
Howard will be making his 23rd straight start in goal tonight for Detroit and it's during his starts streak that Detroit has saved their playoff hopes. On the night that Howard's streak began, the Red Wings were 25-28 and sat ninth in the conference, one point behind Calgary. Since handing the reigns to Howard, the Red Wings have gone 14-8 and now sit sixth in the conference, three points behind Nashville with two games in hand.
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That Chris Osgood struggled early in the season isn't news. His save percentage was terrible on a Detroit team that was outshooting their opponents, and it showed in the team's win-loss record.
Detroit was outshooting at even strength but losing with Osgood in goal. Osgood was getting shelled on the penalty kill.
Then came Jimmy Howard. Looking deeper into the stats, Detroit was outshooting at a better rate with Osgood in goal. Detroit's Corsi percentage in front of Osgood was .547. In front of Howard the rate dips slightly to .532. Osgood's even strength save percentage was a not-so-good .902. To put that in perspective, both Devan Dubnyk and Jeff Deslauriers have been better at even strength. Chris Osgood, hang your head in shame.
Howard stepped up and has delivered .927 at even strength and he's been one of the three best goalies in the league on the penalty kill.
With Howard in the nets, Detroit has a very good chance to finish fifth in the conference and I doubt that Mike Babcock will take Howard out of the nets unless the last game of the season is meaningless. Howard's starts streak should stretch all the way to 29 games.
None of this means that Jimmy Howard will be able to deliver these results over the long term. None of this suggests that Howard deserves a multi-year multi-million dollar contract that NHL general managers seem to love to hand out to goaltenders. All I'm saying is that this year Jimmy Howard saved the Red Wings season and for that he deserves the Hart Trophy.
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I don’t get it. Jimmy Howard? Is he even the best goalie in the league? Is he even the best player on the Red Wings? What criteria are you using to establish him as the most valuable player in the league, or is it all gut feel. If so, the PHWA may accredit you sooner than you expect :)
Well, the difference between him and Osgood is more stark than the difference between Miller and Lalime or Bryzgalov and LaBarbera. But still, I do wonder if the fact that Osgood played through most of the injury-felled period, while Howard’s recent tenure has come with the blessings of good health at last, might not have a little to do with the differences. Besides the fact that Osgood is garbage in the regular season, of course.
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That having been said, he’s a shoo-in as Calder finalist. It’s pretty much him, Duchene, and Myers, no?
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yessir, although i think tavares will get plenty of name-recognition/“he’s on such a bad team!” votes.
by Passive Voice on Mar 30, 2010 2:08 PM MDT up reply actions
well that might all be true, i don’t think a dude should win the Hart just because his GM has an inexplicable boner for his awful backup.
by Passive Voice on Mar 30, 2010 2:09 PM MDT up reply actions
I don’t see how it’s reasonable to give Howard bonus points for having a terrible backup. Dustin Penner is a lot better than the other options at wing for the Oilers but he doesn’t belong in the conversation for the Hart Trophy although I’m sure he finished a close second on Derek’s list.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2010 2:30 PM MDT up reply actions
I guess it depends on if, when you look at with-or-without-you, whether you just pluck the guy off the team or if you replace him with a replacement-level player (~.905 SVP in this instance). If the former, then yeah, Osgood’s shittacularness definitely helps his case. The latter, now that I reflect on it, though, is probably the more reasonable tack, but either way, Howard’s certainly been good. Biggest difference-maker? Probably not. But he’s been really good.
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it’s more the fact that as a rookie, he is sooo cold blooded that he has hung in with the best goalies ( one of top 5 in the three big categories in the league) and has brought his team back from a below .500 record to having an awesome chance at going into the playoffs blowing full steam and rolling on the powerhouse favorites (not that Detroit isn’t). I think that is the whole reason behind the Most Valuable Player award is having the most value to a team that probably couldn’t do it with that one person.
Is he even the best goalie in the league? Is he even the best player on the Red Wings? What criteria are you using to establish him as the most valuable player in the league,
The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Now, I don’t even think he’s the most valuable player on his team but if you were going to argue along the lines of him being so much better than Osgood, why not give the award to Tomas Vokoun? The situation is similar in terms of great goalie and terrible backup plus Vokoun has played an extra 200 minutes so he’s provided extra value there. As an added bonus, he’s actually the best player on his team!
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2010 4:07 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m giving the Vezina to Vokoun.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
But you think Howard is more deserving of the Hart?
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2010 6:06 PM MDT up reply actions
Indeed. The Panthers would stink either way.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
And the Wings would be fine with average goaltending all season. The Panthers need a great goalie just to be competitive. Vokoun is clearly more valuable to his team because they’re so bad.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2010 8:35 PM MDT up reply actions
it is near impossible for a player on a non-playoff team to win Hart. We are speaking of League MVP here !!
But what does making the playoffs have to do with strictly adhering to the criteria of “player judged to be most valuable to his team”?
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 30, 2010 9:11 PM MDT up reply actions
Because if you can’t carry your team to the playoffs, you aren’t that valuable? I guess?
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Exactly. What value is there in a 23rd place finish?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Well, no one player can force a team to win. So for you the award is now for “the most valuable player most valuable to his team so long as his team is good enough to…” (1) make the playoffs, (2) win their division, (3) win the Presidents’ trophy, (4) something else. It’s an extra (and significant!) criteria that you’ve added to the official criteria. I would probably want to add other criteria too like, “is the best player on his team” and “is one of the best players at his position.”
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 31, 2010 11:20 AM MDT up reply actions
“The Hart Memorial Trophy is an annual award given to the player judged to be the most valuable to his team.”
Those are my criteria. Howard gets my first vote and the injured Sedin gets my second.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
No we’re not, not by the definition.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
And the Wings would be fine with average goaltending all season.
But they don’t have it other than Howard. So he’s very valuable.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
How hard would it be for them to have acquired an average goalie? Probably not so hard. Rewarding one player because the GM screwed up and signed Osgood is pretty odd. Comparing his performance only to Chris Osgood when judging his value to his team is asinine. There are other options out there. Otherwise your ballot is going to be a bunch of goalies with bad backups since “the next best option” on any given team at forward or on defence isn’t going to be as big a drop. In addition to Vokoun and Howard you’d have Miller and Kipper and Lundqvist and Elliott and Nittymaki. But maybe that’s what your ballot looks like. I don’t know.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 31, 2010 11:30 AM MDT up reply actions
How hard would it be for them to have acquired an average goalie? Probably not so hard.
The Red Wings didn’t acquire one and were left to flounder. Howard put a stop to that.
If we’re going to give the awards out for hypotheticals, can we just give them to Crosby and Ovechkin every year and forget it? I mean they should win them based on talent, right?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If Ovechkin and Crosby are the most valuable players they should probably get the most Hart Trophies.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 31, 2010 4:02 PM MDT up reply actions
…give them such horrible replacements that they’re clearly better than the next best option?
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 1, 2010 12:34 AM MDT up reply actions
I dont think guy will even win Calder let alone Hart.
My Hart finalists are
Crosby
Miller
Ovie
4th- Sedin
Calder
Myers
Howard
Duchene
No love for Bryzgalov?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Good argument, and it goes without saying the Red Wings would not be the most dangerous team in the league with Osgood between the pipes. That being said, the modus operandi for the Wings was supposed to be “play Osgood in the playoffs, regardless;” how strong will that urge be?
Oh, and even if the voters went goalie (which I think they should), it’d be a dead heat between Miller and Bryzgalov. Miller gets the undeserved edge because of the Olympics (because that’s how the PHWA rolls), where the real edge should go to Breezer’s 7% higher SV% in shootouts.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Mar 30, 2010 3:54 PM MDT reply actions
Is there any correlation between Howard’s numbers and the return of several key Red Wing players from injury?
The Avalanche, clearly, are down with No PP.
Those key Red Wings weren’t hurt early on when Osgood was terrible.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think we should all be united around the idea that Osgood really is terrible at this point.
by Scott Reynolds on Apr 1, 2010 12:35 AM MDT up reply actions
The injuries have been all season. Two most noteworthy, Franzen and Ilja, have been out all season untill just before the Olympic break. In fact, only one forward and two D have been in every game. One could argue that the recent success of the Red Wings is due to the fact that they are finally injury-free. That is true, however, its more than that. Basically, Howard’s great goaltending most of the season is a key reason the Wings emerged from the Olympic break within a point of 9th place. Since then they have battled to within a point of 5th place in the conference(two games in hand).
A player’s importance to the team is in a way tied to the success of the team. If the Red Wings make a splash in the play-offs, the player most responsible for getting them to the play-offs has a good claim to be league MVP. Lidstrom might be the best Red Wing but he can only play 20-27 minutes. Red Wing defense has been bad all year and the offence has been impotent. Until a several games ago the wings had only one 20 goal scorer.
The arguement regarding the health of the Wings correlating to Howard’s sucess is a very valid point. That being said, according to the stats, Osgood faced 24.4 shots per game; Howard has faced 29.8. Detroit played better D in front of Ozzie, and he still couldn’t hold his own. It’s always been a tough arguement for Detroit teams because they are always so deep with stars. Did the goalie make the save, did the D block the shot, or did our skaters flatout outscore the opponents? For me, there’s only one trophy that matters, and I’m proud to say the Wings players would all agree.
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