Oilers v. Canucks - Psalm 27:4-8
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 5:25 PM MDT
in Game-Day Threads
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PrintVancouver Canucks at Edmonton Oilers, Mar 23, 2010 7:00 PM MDT
There is only one thing that we ask of Yahweh,
one thing that we seek:
That his favour would rest upon us every day
and that his hand would be with us forever.
We dream about the promised team he is creating for us
and expect to get a foretaste of that victory tonight.
The Prius-driving pinheads have come to mock us
but Yahweh will lead us to victory, all the while keeping us safely in last place.
He has hidden us in the basement of the league for now
but tonight we will be highly exalted.
Our hearts will be filled with joy
when Yahweh lifts us over these West Coast wankers.
The whole season stands as a sacrifice for our sins
but tonight we will put away our sackcloth and ashes,
and sing songs of great celebration.
Hear our voice as we call out!
Be merciful and let us taste glory tonight!
We fans are prepared to seek your blessing!
We are prepared to follow in your ways!
Vancouver Canucks (44-24-4) @ Edmonton Oilers (23-42-7)
Rexall Place, 7:00 P.M. MDT
Television: PPV
More analysis after the jump...
Visiting Team Scouting Report:
The Vancouver Canucks are an interesting club. They barely outshoot their opponents at even strength (1680-1641 for +39) and when the score is tied they're actually outshot (516-551 for -35). They have incredible percentages overall (.927 Sv + 9.2 Sh = PDO of 101.9) that are even better when the score is tied (.929 Sv + 9.3 Sh = PDO of 102.2). But the goal differential of +49 looks positively elite. So which is it? About average (outshooting results), downright elite (percentages, goal differential) or something in the middle? My inclination is for the last of those options. I thought it might be fun to take a look at the top nine teams in the West to see how they do when it comes to outshooting and outshooting with the score tied to get a better handle on where the Canucks stand (the numbers are from Vic Ferrari's timeonice.com):
Chicago is just dominant. If it wasn't for the goaltending bugaboo they would be close to unstoppable. A first round matchup with the Wings is almost unfair considering these are the two of the better teams at EV. The Avs, on the other hand, make a pretty decent prize for winning the Conference if they can hold off the Flames to end the season.
The next thing I wanted to look at were the special teams numbers. Are the Canucks vastly superior to the rest of the contenders in the West when it comes to special teams? To do this I looked at overall goal differential on both the PP and the PK which incorporates both offensive and defensive contributions on both special teams. It also incorporates the number of opportunities each team generates and gives up in various situations. The data is from nhl.com:
The fact that Chicago is near the top puts them way (way, way, way) out in front of the field as far as I'm concerned and Detroit certainly looks dangerous. The Canucks? They're not so great. Everyone is below the Hawks and I'd say the Wings are a pretty clear 2nd, especially considering they haven't been healthy all year but they are now. The Canucks fit into the next group with the Sharks and Coyotes followed by the Kings, Flames and Predators and then the Avalanche a notch below that. The Nucks' PDO at EV is high and some might nick them more for it than I do but with Luongo I think something around 101 is pretty reasonable. Still, that's a hefty drop from where they've performed to date. Still, the draw is pretty favourable for the Canucks since it's very likely that if they're the third seed they'll only need to play one of the Hawks and Wings in the post-season. That is, unless the Wings manage to finish sixth... in which case I'd still bet on the Canucks only facing one of the two, if you know what I mean.
Expected Lineups:
Edmonton Oilers (23-42-7):
Moreau - Horcoff - Pisani
Penner - Cogliano - Brule
Comrie - Gagner - Stortini
Nilsson - Potulny - Pouliot
Gilbert - Whitney
Strudwick - Chorney
Johnson - Arsene
Deslauriers
Vancouver Canucks (44-24-4)
Sedin - Sedin - Burrows
Raymond - Kelser - Grabner
Glass - Wellwood - Hansen
Hordichuk - Johnson - Rypien
Salo - Edler
Ehrhoff - O'Brien
Bieksa - Rome
Luongo
Behind the Numbers:
- The top nine players in the NHL in traditional +/- all play for either the Vancouver Cancuks or the Washington Capitals. The four Cancuks are Daniel Sedin, Henrik Sedin, Alex Burrows and Christian Ehrhoff.
- Coming into tonight Henrik Sedin leads the league in assists with 67, two ahead of Joe Thornton. He's also second in the league in points, two behind Alex Ovechkin. So far this season he has 1.32 points per game, his best season since playing in a junior Swedish league at 17 where he had 36 points in 26 games. It's hard to believe he hasn't improved since then.
- Alex Burrows has taken the fourth most minor penalties in the entire league with 41. In 2007-08 Burrows had a penalty differential of +1.3 per sixty minutes. In 2008-09 it was down to +0.4 per sixty minutes. This season his penalty differential is -0.3 per sixty minutes. Each season the number he's drawn has gone down and the number he's taken has gone up. It seems that the refs have come to an "understanding" as far as Burrows' antics are concerned.
- Vancouver's typical fourth liners generally spend a lot of time in their own zone but part of that is because it's usually where they begin. Ryan Johnson has taken 74 OZ draws compared to 160 in the DZ. Darcy Hordichuk has 67 OZ draws and 99 in the DZ. Rick Rypien has had 90 in the OZ and 127 in the DZ. Tanner Glass has had 123 OZ and 169 DZ. All of those extra offensive opportunities are being handed to the Sedins. The results - at both ends - are pretty much what you'd expect.
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Patrick O’Sullivan’s bionic fingernail.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Alex Burrows has taken the fourth most minor penalties in the entire league with 41. In 2007-08 Burrows had a penalty differential of +1.3 per sixty minutes. In 2008-09 it was down to +0.4 per sixty minutes. This season his penalty differential is -0.3 per sixty minutes. Each season the number he’s drawn has gone down and the number he’s taken has gone up. It seems that the refs have come to an “understanding” as far as Burrows’ antics are concerned.
Awwww, but he’s such a hard-working kid! Don’t you know how great of a guy he is? He’s innocent, he’s just caught up in the NHL’s hate on Canucks!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I can’t decide whether to make Diebald’s nickname “The Voting Machine” or “The CIS Reject”. Thoughts?
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:06 PM MDT reply actions
I CAN’T BELIEVE DIEBALD ISN’T STARTING!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:08 PM MDT up reply actions
A late cut from my modest Deslauriers defense was “he’s probably better than the third-string tender for the University of Calgary”.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:10 PM MDT up reply actions
I like “The Voting Machine” but you’d best get good use out of it tonight.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 7:08 PM MDT up reply actions
Looks like Stortini and Brule have switched spots in the lineup. The Penner-Cogliano-Stortini line looks odd.
Looks like Stortini and Brule have switched spots in the lineup. The Penner-Cogliano-Stortini line looks odd.
It’s like Quinn is Satan and Penner is Job.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If anybody can be EV+ playing with Dustin Penner, the logical thing to do is to play Penner with the worst players available.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:16 PM MDT up reply actions
Glancing over Edmonton’s roster, how can you choose?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I can’t help myself. I did it at the one Canucks game I attended live and it was effective. Well, until the Oilers started losing.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 7:14 PM MDT up reply actions
Tom Gilbert sifts one through Luongo from an abominable angle because Luongo wasn’t tight. On the bench, the Voting Machine says “Jesus, this league doesn’t look that tough.”
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:13 PM MDT reply actions
Nice puck protection from Penner to draw the penalty. If that kind of stuff was called consistently Penner (and a lot of other guys) would be a lot more dominant.
I enjoy when that isn’t called and Penner just grimaces at the ref.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
In no particular order, Dubnyk, Deslauriers, and Penner.
Am I wrong?
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:17 PM MDT up reply actions
I don’t even know what joke you’re going for.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The joke that we’re so awful I can seriously argue that our three best have been two crappy goalies and a fat man? Not that it’s funny.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:18 PM MDT up reply actions
It’s those glimpses of dominance that make me want to run an Omark – Gagner – Nilsson line next year as a third minutes crusher.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Right after a big Deslauriers save, too. I hope UofC guy isn’t studying criminal justice because Deslauriers robbed them blind.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:20 PM MDT up reply actions
Twice! What is going on? Up is down, down is up, in is out!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Luongo is getting ventilated! If we get Raycroft vs. UofC guy, will that be the worst goaltending matchup in the history of people being paid to play hockey?
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:19 PM MDT reply actions
In December we had Toskala/Deslauriers in an Oilers win. That’s got to be a contender.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 7:34 PM MDT up reply actions
Zack is too savvy to let a plug like Rypien potentially fire his team up!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:23 PM MDT up reply actions
Zack is a first-liner now – he has no time for throwing hands.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
i honestly dont get the idea behind playing gagner with stotini and i dont care what ever good thing bruce has to say about this
I think they’ve actually got him with Stortini and Comrie like last game but for the first shift I swear it was Penner. Not that it’s a better (or even reasonable) situation for Gagner.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 7:26 PM MDT up reply actions
I’m saying it again. Dominik Hasek is a poor man’s Jeff Deslauriers.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:24 PM MDT reply actions
Maybe from the perspective of a torture victim who only wishes he were a poor man.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 7:26 PM MDT up reply actions
Stortini, you idiot! Don’t get Luongo hurt, he’s the reason we’re winning!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:28 PM MDT reply actions
Little too much cheering at Rexall for that goal.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:32 PM MDT reply actions
Arsene has looked pretty bad so far. But Peckham was pretty bad too. How did we win the last two games with this bottom four D?
If Pat Quinn had a voodoo doll, who would that doll be?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Devan Dubnyk playing so hard that his intestines exploded.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:37 PM MDT up reply actions
Clearly it was magic. Or dumb effing luck.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Okay. We need to find those fair-weather fans who buy the lower bowl seats and then scalp them when the team is losing. And we need to execute them. No messy trials or arrests. Just have Fernando Pisani travel between their million-dollar houses and dispatch them with single shots at the base of the skull.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:38 PM MDT reply actions
Pisani, Stortini, and Cogliano. We have the friggin’ mafia on our team. Now if only they could find us a goalie that “fell off the back of a truck”.
Cogliano could never be a button man; he’s too slow on the draw.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:41 PM MDT up reply actions
Oilers need to draft Nino Niederreiter
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Every time I listen to the Sportsnet Pacific guys talk about the Canucks, I feel stupider.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 7:51 PM MDT reply actions
I feel uncomfortable. They’re like creepy old men leering…at the Canucks.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It’s like watching Sportsnet West talk about the Oilers, except it’s the Canucks!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:03 PM MDT up reply actions
The worse our team gets, the better our goaltending gets.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:04 PM MDT reply actions
I’m a bit surprised Nilsson didn’t draw a penalty on that rush. He’s shown some good wheels in this game. Better than usual? What do you guys think?
Last game thread I asked if he was really that fast.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Johnson
I enjoy that the non-Whitney non-Gilbert portion of Edmonton’s defense make a career seventh defenseman look like a seasoned and steady all-star.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Dude! Andrew Fucking Cogliano! Where the hell did this shit come from?
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:11 PM MDT reply actions
Pssssssst. He’s playing with Penner.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Penner is so good he turns Roberto Luongo into a mediocre CIS goaltender!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:13 PM MDT up reply actions
Meanwhile Gilbert Brule puts that second assist into his pocket and chuckles about an extra 50 or 100k.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 8:16 PM MDT up reply actions
I was really hoping for a third short-side goal.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Gilbert is currently +3. When was the last time an Oiler finished a game +3?
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:12 PM MDT reply actions
Wasn’t Gilbert +3 against the Sharks?
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 8:14 PM MDT up reply actions
Penner, Brule and Gagner were all +4 against St. Louis.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Go Oilers!
Regardless of record, losing sucks and I’m glad the team looks to finish off strong.z
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
We’re still stuck at 10 with the Leafs losing tonight.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 8:19 PM MDT up reply actions
The way Deslauriers is playing, leaving the Voting Machine on the bench really isn’t in the proper Fall for Hall spirit.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:20 PM MDT reply actions
Fuck! Deslauriers is blowing it! Quick, bring in Diebald to save this dog!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:27 PM MDT reply actions
Is it too late to retroactively play Martin Brodeur in the Olympics? Because this Luongo kid looks sort of shit.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:31 PM MDT reply actions
next year's roster will stop us from getting a top 5 pick
Next season roster…
Hall-Horcoff-Hemsky
Brule-Gagner-Penner
Eberle-Pouliot-Cogliano
Stone-Potulny-Jones
Stortini
Souray-Gilbert
Whitney-Smid
Johnson- FA
Peckham
Khabibulin
FA/JDD/DD
“Stop us from getting a top five pick”. How the optimists have fallen.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:41 PM MDT up reply actions
Jeff Deslauriers: “a busy, busy camper”. No wonder Sportsnet is the best analytical network in Canada.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 8:45 PM MDT reply actions
http://ohlprospects.blogspot.com/2010/03/q-with-mckeens-director-of-scouting.html
i think this is a must read
Penner behind the net there on the breakout while Cogs took the point. I don’t know why the Oilers wingers are coming down so low all the time but there you go.
I finally believe you that it’s part of Quinn’s “system”
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Once again, our inability to win a faceoff is costing us chances.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 9:06 PM MDT reply actions
The math haters remind us that faceoffs don’t matter.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I am a math hater. But I also have eyes.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 9:07 PM MDT up reply actions
I wouldn’t say so. I actually don’t think it’s all that great and figure it’s well short of some of the other real bargains. Dustin Brown is a pretty good player that jumps to mind.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 9:17 PM MDT up reply actions
Stephen Weiss and Zbynek Michalek
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The offence? No, he won’t. Even aside from the shooting percentage, he’s in a pretty sweet situation playing offensive situations with the Sedins. It’s about as good an offensive spot as you can get. Credit to him for taking advantage though.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 9:25 PM MDT up reply actions
So
Late-game collapse or edge of the seat hanging on?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Like you have to ask. Fall for Hall! Fall for Hall!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 9:16 PM MDT up reply actions
So how much of the last five minutes will Gilbert and Whitney play? And how much should they play? I figure they should play just over three minutes.
They should play every second. They’re big boys!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 9:16 PM MDT up reply actions
With a timeout after the icing, I’m thinking they should play about 3:25
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Ethan Moreau, defensive demon and rainmaker.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
They were out there for a long time too. I was expecting to see a different set of forwards after that clear with about forty seconds left.
by Scott Reynolds on Mar 23, 2010 9:22 PM MDT up reply actions
EAT ME BRITISH COLUMBIA! EAT SO MUCH OF ME BRITISH COLUMBIA!
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 9:22 PM MDT reply actions
Eh! Oh! Ed-mon-ton Go!
(You would be shocked (shocked) at how little that cheer was used in the Olympics)
There was a facebook group calling that chant a national embarrassment. I think it had more fans than the onion ring. And waaaaay more than Harper.
I have already decided to, next time I’m at a Canadian soccer game with the hard-drinking loud-chanting leatherlungs I go with, try and start the “eh! oh! Canada go!” cheer.
I have also been told that I will be shanked if I try it.
by Benjamin Massey on Mar 23, 2010 10:01 PM MDT up reply actions
That is three straight wins against Detroit, San Jose, and Vancouver, correct?
"While there's life, there's hope." --Cicero
Yes, and they’re making everyone very uneasy.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
No, but I don’t want a repeat of two years ago.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Seems like forever since the Oil have won three in a row.
by TakeoutArtist on Mar 23, 2010 10:15 PM MDT up reply actions
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