The San Jose Sharks' Dismal March
by Derek Zona on Mar 21, 2010 11:30 AM PDT
in Analysis
13 comments
The San Jose Sharks were a team once destined for the President's Trophy. Then came March. At the end of February, San Jose was 40-13-9, and on pace for 118 points. The Sharks were cruising through their schedule and well in front of the division and conference. Since then, they've gone 3-5-1, including five straight losses. Thus far in March they've lost to lower-tier teams Florida, Anaheim, Dallas and Calgary. Something has gone wrong for the Sharks, but what? The always-engaging Gabriel Desjardins blames the team defense, saying "The only thing that's keeping the Sharks in the game is Evgeni Nabokov's high save percentage." But the brutal results in March are a different story.
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Vic Ferrari's excellent Time On Ice tool shows that the Sharks have continued to outshoot in March, but the strong goaltending has disappeared. In March, only four players have been outshot - Jed Ortmeyer, Ryan Vesce, Brad Staubitz, and Jason Demers and the latter three are the only ones with a negative Corsi.
A closer look shows that over those nine games, San Jose's goaltenders have only managed a .884 even strength save percentage, a terrible number for a high-level team, and lower than even Devan Dubnyk's .899 for the season. Prior to March, the Sharks goalies kept them in it with a ..934 save percentage at even strength and the Sharks outscored their opponents 129-99 at evens. The Sharks have given up 26 goals in their six losses and 8 goals in their three wins. Their overall save percentage in the losses is a brutal .843 and in the wins .917. This isn't a special teams fluke either, the Sharks have been outscored 23-17 at evens despite outshooting 240-199.
Maybe it's a post-Olympic hangover, but neither Thomas Greiss nor Evgeni Nabokov played a huge number of games and both had a nice rest after being eliminated. So if Gabe's conclusions are correct - that Nabokov has rescued the Sharks this year - this team might be in some trouble if Nabokov collapses down the stretch.
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But by the same token, Nabokov and Greiss both went out on pretty sour notes, getting pummelled by Canada. Greiss, you maybe expect, because Germany isn’t a great hockey nation, but Russia was embarrassed from top to bottom. I know the Olympic storyline’s been pretty thoroughly debunked ‘round these parts for our old friend Tommy Salo, but you do wonder if it’s having an effect on Nabokov. Having a bad quarterfinal begets a bad first couple of games which can spiral if the athlete doesn’t pull himself together.
Then again, these teams should all be employing sports psychologists for the players to talk to about performance-related issues, because this is 2010, and we understand that these things are important to ensuring an athlete is at his best, so that’s probably not all it is. Maybe he’s playing hurt, or maybe he’s just having a run of bad luck. Either way, the fact of the matter is, the Jets are only one point back now: if they lose to the Oilers, by some miracle, they’re out their game in hand, and now they’re in real trouble.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
If they lose to the Oilers, they’re still apt to get a point, since the Oilers don’t actually Beat anybody. The Sharks may be sucking these days, but they’ll face the ultimate barometer of suck in the Oilers. In their last 16 games the Oilers have "won" 4, but 3 of those came in the shootout. 35 of the last 39 Oiler opponents have skated off with at least one point; 32 of those with two points. That’s 32-4-3, .859 for those scoring at home.
I’m off to attend the game tonight. I’m sitting behind the Oiler net in two periods of three, so will be more watching team play than focussing on individuals on SJ. In the second I will try to focus on their defensive crew. Anybody you want me to keep on eye on?
I’ll be out of the loop for this thread but will write up the PGT later tonight.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 21, 2010 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
So Minny just beat Calgary 4-3, setting their playoff chances back still further. I’ll take Calgary missing the playoffs as a minor silver lining, anyway.
The dumb part is, because Kiprusoff gave up the GWG, he’ll get tagged with the L, even though Toskala being a limp fish in the crease cost the Flames the game.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
This whole thing is lining up for the Sharks to lose to the Wings.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Actually, if anything, I think it’s lining up for Chicago to lose to the Wings. (I like how we just sort of assume that if Detroit makes it, they’re a mortal lock to paste whichever poor sod gets stuck with them in the first round.) Especially, like I said, if San Jose keeps getting shitty goaltending performances, and they get caught for the division lead. I mean, credit where credit’s due for Phoenix’s turnaround, but there’s no way on Earth the Sharks should be seeing the Coyotes in their rearview mirror on the first of spring.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I mean, credit where credit’s due for Phoenix’s turnaround, but there’s no way on Earth the Sharks should be seeing the Coyotes in their rearview mirror on the first of spring.
I’ve love to see the Jets win the conference and lose to the Wings. But I want everyone else to feel Edmonton’s misery too.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
See, I want the Jets to win a playoff series, so I’d be happy with them finishing second. I figure they’ve got a decent shot against Nashville or Colorado.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
If the Jets win a series, Bettman will turn that into a positive about his management skills.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I thought Bettman specifically didn’t want it to have anything to do with him so he couldn’t be accused of impropriety by the other 29?
Besides, I’ve cited this stat before and I’ll cite it again. They haven’t won a series since Nineteen-Fucking-Eighty-Seven. When they beat the “Badger” Bob Johnson-coached Calgary Flames. Throw ‘em a friggin’ bone, here.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
I’m throwing in with the Preds. I think they’re destined to lose to the Canucks, but maybe Rinne can steal that series.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’d be fine with the Preds winning, too. I’ve had a soft spot for them for a while now, dominance of the Oilers notwithstanding.
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
Toskala looked terrible. I suspect both Sutters will be taking some heat for the fact he is a) on the team and b) started today’s crucial game.
If the Flames do miss the playoffs – despite taking 12 out of 12 points off the Oilers I might add – the Sutters’ reign in Calgary might be in the final countdown.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 21, 2010 4:11 PM PDT up reply actions
He’s been terrible in all three games, it’s so bad.
I mean I thought maybe he was giving up high glove too much or not good at quick butterflying which is why he was such a poor goalie. But after three games the biggest trend I have seen is a complete neglect of about 6 to 12 inches of net on the far post.
That’s just galling, what is a National Hockey League goaltender doing losing his net again and again and again? Wouldn’t an even halfway competent coaching or scouting staff see this and just cut him loose right then and there?
Damn, this guy’s a multi-millionaire. Fuck me.
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