The Detroit Model? I'll Go With The Nashville Model
by Derek Zona on Mar 2, 2010 11:15 AM PST
in Analysis
14 comments
Throwing out the term the "Detroit Model" is en vogue throughout both the mainstream media and online media these days. Using the term in a story about your rebuilding team is a cheap-and-easy way to gets some legs out of a story, even if your team isn't in the same galaxy as the Detroit Red Wings. While the Red Wings system has been successful, especially since the lockout, there is another franchise that should be held as the gold standard for every other team in the midst of a tear-down or a rebuild.
SB Nation's Oilers vs Predators coverage
The Falconer from Bird Watcher Anonymous took a look at cap efficiency since the lockout and found that, during the regular season, Nashville leads the pack:
So which teams have gotten the most for their money? The Nashville Predators not only lead this list but have a huge margin over the #2 team. David Poile is simply a master at contending on a small budget (doing it again this year after a rough start).
Since the lockout, Nashville is 6th overall in regular season points and 29th in payroll. Contrast that with Edmonton. The Oilers are 27th in regular season points and 9th in payroll. As magnificently efficient as David Poile has been, Kevin Lowe and Steve Tambellini have been masterfully awful. Though Poile's work hasn't translated to playoff success yet, he's doing more than any other general manager in the NHL.
The Preds have used four starting goalies in that timeframe and J.P. Dumont has been their leading scorer. Paul Kariya, the closest thing that Nashville has had to a "superstar" during this time left via free agency. Budding superstar Alexander Radulov walked away from the team for the KHL, leaving them without a dynamic goal scorer. That void has been filled by Patric Hornqvist, a one-time sixth round draft choice, who leads the team in goals this year with 23. In fact, Nashville currently has twelve roster players that were drafted by the Preds, including Hornqvist, Olympic defensemen Ryan Suter and Shea Weber, and star goaltender Pekka Rinne. Nashville has had success in the draft though they haven't had a lottery pick since David Legwand in 1998.
The chart below shows Nashville's lead on the rest of the NHL - the next most efficient team, the Sharks, have spent $30 million more than the Predators over five seasons, the equivalent of Patrick Marleau. The Predators have spent $43.7 million below the cap during that timeframe, or $8.7 million per season, the equivalent Brad Richards with nearly $1 million left over.
|
Team |
Total Salary (MM) |
Points/Salary |
|
NSH |
203.4 |
2.54 |
|
SJS |
231.1 |
2.47 |
|
DET |
246.9 |
2.3 |
|
BUF |
226.7 |
2.29 |
|
NJD |
237.4 |
2.21 |
|
WSH |
213.4 |
2.2 |
|
DAL |
231.9 |
2.13 |
|
OTT |
237.7 |
2.08 |
|
PIT |
224.2 |
2.08 |
|
PHX |
201 |
2.05 |
|
CAR |
226 |
2.05 |
|
VAN |
237.4 |
2.05 |
|
MIN |
225.6 |
2.04 |
|
ANA |
240.8 |
2.02 |
|
CGY |
239.3 |
2 |
|
MTL |
237.4 |
1.92 |
|
NYR |
241.3 |
1.91 |
|
COL |
234.3 |
1.91 |
|
FLA |
221.4 |
1.88 |
|
LAK |
219.4 |
1.81 |
|
ATL |
226.7 |
1.81 |
|
CBJ |
213.5 |
1.79 |
|
CHI |
242.9 |
1.76 |
|
PHI |
243.6 |
1.74 |
|
NYI |
212.2 |
1.74 |
|
STL |
222.7 |
1.68 |
|
BOS |
253.2 |
1.67 |
|
TBL |
232.1 |
1.65 |
|
TOR |
241.4 |
1.59 |
|
EDM |
238.6 |
1.55 |
For a team that can spend to the cap, they should model their roster build after the Predators and use the excess for those short-term players afforded by a team that can spend to the cap.
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wow…. we’re actually less effective than Toronto by this metric.
…I…
…I’m speechless….
…
…Worst run team in the NHL…
…No wonder we are running away with that 48.8% chance at the first round pick…
wow…. we’re actually less effective than Toronto by this metric.
Over the last four years, the Oilers are less effective than Toronto in all metrics.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
The thing is, for a while the charge could be made that the Preds could draft & develop defensemen, but not forwards. In recent years, however, Hartnell would be considered a legit scorer, along with Radulov, even though they both left. This year we’ve got Hornqvist, and Colin Wilson appears to be coming along as well.
On the veteran side, I’ve been amazed how he was able to replace Bonk and Zanon with nearly identical performance from Goc and Bouillon, while shaving over $1 million off the payroll. Getting bargain performance out of the depth portion of the roster is essential.
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Getting bargain performance out of the depth portion of the roster is essential.
That and Poile seems to load the roster with contracts that can be played to our outplayed. That’s huge.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Great stuff, Derek. I hope Daryl Katz reads this.
- vs. #30 tonight … wow. That impresses and depresses me at the same time.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
Great stuff, Derek.
Thanks
I hope Daryl Katz reads this.
The things is – should he really have to? Can’t he smell the rotting carcass?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I agree, that’s great insight. I have a quick question – how do injuries affect these numbers?
I don’t honestly follow the Predators that much, so I’m wondering if some of this is due to their management’s ability to build a team resistant to injuries (or at least where their key players aren’t often injured). It seems to me that the REALLY poor performance of the Oilers by this points/salary calculation is due to that salary going to injured players.
Good point, but one that cuts both ways. If you spend money on older players, especially those known to be injury-prone, how surprised can you be when there’s a couple of them on the shelf at any given time. Souray and Visnovsky were both in that category when the Oilers picked up their huge contracts, and Horcoff was still recovering from season-ending shoulder surgery when they re-upped him to that mammoth extension. Good bets?
A somewhat-unrelated matter is the Oilers tendency to sign over 30s to four or more years … a lot changes in that time, especially on the other side of the hill. Souray and Visnovsky each had season-ending injuries, Moreau and Pisani have been felled several times each during the lifetimes of their lengthy pacts, and this year the one usually healthy guy, Steve Staios, has had his own issues. Then they went out and signed Khabibulin to a four-year pact … say no more.
The only guys they have signed long-term that are any sort of iron men are Gilbert and Penner, both signed in their mid-20s. Hmmm …
Some of it is bad luck. A lot of it is a trend.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 2, 2010 1:45 PM PST up reply actions
Thanks Bruce – I was thinking that way as well. No doubt that a lot of the Oilers’ injury problems, even amongst the over-30 crowd are bad luck individually, but as a team, the trend is obvious. Most teams can handle the occasional “bad luck” injuries, but I honestly don’t remember a time in the past four years that the Oilers have had all their talent healthy and you’re right, the hiring tendency is probably to blame.
I guess I’m just trying to figure out what the “Nashville-model” is and how the Oilers mimic it. Do they succeed because they’ve focused on generally durable, average players with the mantra “they may not be the best available, but they’re actually playing?” or is their system turning average players into good ones? Like the Detroit model, it seems a bit like magic.
They draft intelligently, they have a nice development organization and they sign players that can outplay their contracts. They can’t afford mistakes, so when they do make a mistake, it’s not of the Khabibulin variety.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Barry Trotz is a helluva coach, too.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 3, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions
Mirtle occasionally assembles man-lost figures for various teams, and I think Nashville regularly falls into the middle there. Remember Steve Sullivan was on the shelf for almost two years, and Shea Weber has a bad habit of breaking teammates’ bones with his slap shot (three within the last 12 months).
More fun than a stick to the face!
On the Forecheck is SB Nation's blog covering the Nashville Predators.
Great Article. That’s a very unique way of looking at the performance… lol like the rest of the world salary divided by results and they better me positive.
The Oilers are going to have to make some changes and get more production. I have been following http://tradedeadline.thescore.com too see if any rumors start buzzing, one can only hope for a better Oilers teams.
Thanks again for this article Derek. I finally actually took the time to click on the link to The Falconer’s article (not that it matters, but the list linked is for 2000-2010 and doesn’t look to be the same as the one you’ve listed). What’s interesting about the entire decade list (if I’m reading it right) is not that Nashville is at the top, but that Edmonton is 9th. That’s a helluva efficiency turnaround pre- to post-lockout – I’d bet that Edmonton is at the top of the list 2000-2004. Since Kevin Lowe’s been in charge (debatably) the whole decade, his managing style as a have and have-not team is practically bipolar. No doubt this changed with his initial success after the lockout in adding big-money talent in Peca and Pronger, and having that translate into hockey success.
I don’t really have a point, just the say that the Nashville model could just as easily be the Lowe (‘00-’04) model. Just like Poile, Lowe in those years was quite good building a team with capable hockey players (and maybe even did it with worse drafting) and couldn’t afford mistakes. At some point then, Lowe realized that the best UFA signings were guys that were playing for another contract, so maybe there’s hope he adjusts his sights this offseason. I’d argue that the #1 draft pick is the biggest catch of the offseason, so maybe he and Tambellini be satisfied with that and actually build a hockey team. I have no idea whether the trades today/yesterday are a sign that that’s the plan since you need cap space to both sign a team of capable over-performing players or overpay an aging superstar. Saying that, it is refreshing to see some decisions made and bodies moved (even if I don’t necessarily agree with who those were and for what).
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