Penner Continues To Carry Edmonton

There have been rumblings of late that Dustin Penner is "back to his old self" in Edmonton.  Most of the backlash is from fans, looking for a scapegoat to blame for the losing streaks and scoring slump.  Words like "lazy", "disinterested", and "slow" are starting to creep back into the narrative.  There is even a welling up of support to "just play the kids."  Everything old is new again, eh?  However, Penner continues to lead the Oilers in scoring chances and chances differential (for qualifying players) and shots.  Why has the well dried up?

 

 

The chart below shows the leading scorer on all 30 NHL teams (even strength goals are the tie-breaker), the breakdown of their goals by ES and PP, and the percentage of goals that the leading scorer has accounted for thus far in 2009-2010.  Penner is 10th in total goal percentage in the NHL, trailing Alberta poster-boy Jarome Iginla by a fraction and leading newly-rich Rick Nash by a fraction.

 

Leading Scorer

ES

PP

Total

% of ES

% of PP

% of Total

Gaborik

21

13

35

20.59%

31.71%

23.33%

Stamkos

18

13

32

18.75%

29.55%

22.07%

Crosby

28

10

39

21.54%

26.32%

21.67%

Marleau

24

11

38

18.60%

21.57%

19.49%

Kovalchuk

21

10

31

17.95%

26.32%

18.45%

Ovechkin

32

10

42

20.38%

16.67%

18.26%

Parise

20

5

26

20.41%

13.51%

17.69%

Cammalleri

22

4

26

22.22%

8.89%

17.45%

Iginla

17

7

24

16.67%

20.59%

16.33%

Penner

17

6

23

17.17%

15.38%

16.31%

Nash

15

8

25

15.31%

18.60%

16.23%

Kopitar

16

10

27

13.68%

23.81%

15.70%

Ryan

17

8

25

15.04%

20.00%

15.43%

Moulson

18

3

21

18.18%

9.09%

15.00%

Hornqvist

15

8

23

13.51%

23.53%

14.84%

Neal

20

2

23

18.02%

4.65%

14.20%

Carter

14

8

23

13.46%

15.69%

14.02%

Sedin

21

3

25

17.65%

6.00%

13.81%

Sturm

15

2

18

16.30%

5.71%

13.64%

Weiss

13

7

20

12.75%

20.00%

13.61%

Jokinen

13

7

20

13.00%

17.50%

13.16%

Kessel

15

6

21

12.61%

15.79%

13.04%

Kane

16

6

22

12.31%

15.00%

12.22%

Vrbata

14

5

19

12.28%

13.51%

12.18%

Fisher

12

7

19

10.34%

23.33%

11.88%

McDonald

12

5

17

11.65%

13.89%

11.56%

Vanek

9

8

17

8.33%

19.51%

10.97%

Zetterberg

13

3

16

13.40%

7.69%

10.96%

Stewart

16

2

18

14.29%

4.88%

10.78%

Miettinen

12

4

16

10.71%

10.26%

10.19%

 

To show just how bleak the rest of the roster is, Sam Gagner, the team's second-leading goal-scorer, has 14 goals.  That's second-worst in the league for a second-leading goal-scorer, "trailing" only Boston's Blake Wheeler.  The percentage dropoff from Penner to Gagner is 39.13%, 4th highest in the league.  The three men above Penner on the corresponding list are Marian Gaborik, Sidney Crosby and Ilya Kovalchuk and the latter's 31 goals are the lowest total among that group.

 

2nd leading Scorer

Total

% Dropoff

Callahan

15

57.14%

Malkin

20

48.72%

Afinogenov

18

41.94%

Gagner

14

39.13%

Gionta

16

38.46%

Semin

26

38.10%

Zajac

17

34.62%

Malone

21

34.38%

Smyth

18

33.33%

Wheeler

13

27.78%

Bourque

18

25.00%

Umberger

19

24.00%

Erat

18

21.74%

Tavares

17

19.05%

Perry 

21

16.00%

Heatley

32

15.79%

Horton

17

15.00%

Toews

19

13.64%

Perron

15

11.76%

Pominille

15

11.76%

Bertuzzi

15

6.25%

Upshall

18

5.26%

Hagman

20

4.76%

Eriksson

22

4.35%

Burrows

25

0.00%

Duchene

18

0.00%

Richards

23

0.00%

Staal

20

0.00%

Koivu

16

0.00%

Michalek

19

0.00%

The lesson, as it has been for the last three years in Edmonton, is that real NHL players are needed to score goals. Counting on one guy to lug AHL'ers and replacement players up and down the ice doesn't work and is the primary contributor to Penner's recent slump.

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