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Edmonton's Top 25 Under 25: #3 Jordan Eberle

 

 Jordan Eberle is Clutch. He scores Big Goals. Clutch Goals. Big, Clutch Goals.

Of course the last time the Oilers actually needed a clutch goal was in the spring of 2006 when Eberle was turning 16, but hopefully they'll be needing a few more before he hits his 30s. Team Canada on the other hand could use this guy Today.

Just kidding on that last part, but Eberle has already made quite the name for himself on the international stage with a whole clutch of clutch goals. Over the past three seasons he has represented Canada once in the U-18s and twice in the U-20s, winning gold twice (both under Pat Quinn) and silver once. He finished in the Top 4 scorers each time, sharing the top of the leaderboard with hotshots like John Tavares, James van Riemsdyk, Cody Hodgson, Nikita Filatov, Matt Duchene, and Jordan Schroeder, not to mention fellow future Oilers like Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, Teemu Hartikainen, and (ahem) Taylor Hall. (Everything is bright in Oilerland once one learns to ignore the present!)

Nay, nay, the naysayers say, that's just the Tournament of Small Sample Sizes, not to be taken seriously even when the results turn out to be pretty darn reproducible after all. So let's put all that aside and look at his Desjardins NHL Equivalencies, right after the jump.

Star-divide


RankPlayer DOBDraftedYearBen
Bruce
Derek
JonScott
3 Jordan Eberle 5/15/90
22 2008
2 2 6 7 3

 

Eberle_nhle_graph_medium
Might as well save myself a thousand words and start with a picture. The green line up top is the one of most interest here, as it represents points per game which is improving at an accelerating rate. Expressed in integers:
 
Season Team Lge GP G A Pts
2006-07 Regina Pats WHL 82E 10 10 21
2007-08 Regina Pats WHL 82E 15 12 26
2008-09 Regina Pats WHL 82E 14 16 30
2008-09 Springfield Falcons AHL 82E 12 24 36
2009-10 Regina Pats WHL 82E 21 24 45

 

Note the presence of two data points for 2008-09, the first Eberle's NHLE for 74 points in 61 WHL games (NHLE = 0.30) and the second his 9 points in 9 AHL games (NHLE = 0.44) during his end-of-season pro tryout. While I agree that's a small sample size, the fact its data point fits so smoothly on the overall curve makes the case that this was just another small, positive step in Eberle's development, perhaps a stepping stone for his points explosion back at the junior level in 2009-10.

The expected jitter from the 9-game sample can be found in goals and assists distribution, whose curves are therefore less regular but nonetheless on a clear upward slope in both cases. A scorer and a playmaker both is young Jordan.

Eberle's playoff stats fit comfortably on the upward slope as well. Although they are yet again tiny sample sizes of just 6 and 5 games respectively, in both seasons his points-per-game rate increased from the regular season to the playoffs. In fact, in every one of his tiny sample sizes - 3 international tourneys, 2 WHL playoffs, 1 AHL call-up - Eberle scored at least a point per game each and every time. That's Clutch!

But those are only numbers. The other part of the scouting report must come from the old-fashioned seen him good . In all three of those live looks, plus the 2008 Top Prospects Game which was in my pre-blogging days, I came away favourably impressed by Eberle's game.

He's a very cerebral player, befitting the 2007-08 winner of the Doc Seaman Trophy as WHL Scholastic Player of the Year. Each time I've seen him I've been impressed with his understanding of the offensive zone, how to find the soft spots and when to exploit them. He has the scorer's gift of timing his arrival at the optimal moment, a nifty trait that has done wonders for finishers like Mike Bossy, Luc Robitaille, Brett Hull, Dino Ciccarelli to name just a few that scored a lot more goals than they were expected to on draft day. Subtle, but deadly.

Now Jordan Eberle does not yet possess a shot of the calibre of those snipers mentioned above so I should hardly put such weighty expectations on him. He does, however, seem to have a low panic point and that knack for surprising and beating goalies. I am fairly confident that those skills will translate at the NHL level. Moreover, that NHLE graph displays the curve of a quick learner.

To produce a couple of crude comparables, I put the upper end for Eberle at Joe Mullen, the lower end at David Oliver. The way I look at it, if he's even a little bit better than Oliver he'll be a useful NHL player. And if he's anywhere close to as good as Mullen, he'll be a star in this league.

As Rod Phillips is fond of saying, only time will tell. Or, as I laughingly said to my C&B colleagues who questioned my placing him so high on the prospect rankings, "As for the top of the list I think MPS will look a lot flashier not scoring goals than Eberle will scoring them."

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Jon – I’m surprised to see that you have him right down (relatively) in 7th. I’m interested in your thinking behind that ranking if you have a moment to jot down your thoughts. Is size the issue for you?

by Yeti# on Feb 28, 2010 7:37 AM MST reply actions  

Eberle was my most difficult prospect to rank. His only exceptional skill to fall back on is intelligence. He’s not an above average skater, doesn’t have above average skating ability, isn’t especially physical, doesn’t have above average passing ability.

Essentially, ranking Eberle comes down to believe that intelligence and knack will continue to carry him. It’s a very difficult bet to make in my eyes. This isn’t my “once and for all..up your backsides” moment, but it’s really hard to hang my hat on anything.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 28, 2010 9:15 AM MST up reply actions  

I have always imagined Eberle to grow into a more consistent Michael Ryder sort of a player

by SumOil on Feb 28, 2010 11:52 AM MST reply actions  

If you want to get into clutch, not only is there the game-tying goal against Russia, but the SO winner in that game, and the two goals he scored against the US to tie that gold-medal game this year.

I know “clutch” is a controversial concept around here, but I don’t think it’s controversial to suggest that some players wilt under pressure, while others thrive under it. Small samples and all, but my bet is that Eberle’s one of the latter, and in my mind, that’s the very definition of clutch.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Feb 28, 2010 11:57 AM MST reply actions  

Yeah Doogie, I was only being about 80% facetious in my opening paragraph. You are right that Eberle has done nothing but thrive in high-pressure situations to this point in his young career and that can hardly be viewed as a bad thing. If nothing else it will have done wonders for his confidence.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 28, 2010 12:23 PM MST up reply actions  

I know. I guess I just don’t understand why some people on the ‘sphere are allergic to pretty fucking reasonable concepts. Presumably, it’s exclusively because they’ve been so horrifically abused by inarticulate or otherwise inadequate “analysts.”

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Feb 28, 2010 12:40 PM MST up reply actions  

I will tell you why I’m opposed to it, but only if you first give me a clear and concise definition of the term.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 28, 2010 1:04 PM MST up reply actions  

Consistently performing well in high-pressure situations where other players tend to falter.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Feb 28, 2010 5:05 PM MST up reply actions  

How large does your sample size have to be to allow a player to ‘consistently perform’?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Feb 28, 2010 5:30 PM MST up reply actions  

More than Eberle’s had so far, if that’s what you’re asking, but there’s a trend there, sure. I think you need a few years, simply because situations of that calibre don’t come along very often.

SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.

by Doogie2K on Feb 28, 2010 5:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Agreed, Doogie. Even as new methodologies can be argued to be superior to old school approaches in certain ways, they hardly invalidate them. No matter how sophisticated it becomes, statistical analysis will never entirely replace “seen him good” in our understanding of the game, especially within its inner sanctum of coaches, managers, and scouts who make the decisions.

I tried to include some of both in the above article.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 28, 2010 1:06 PM MST up reply actions  

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Northwest Standings

GP W L OTL PT
Vancouver 52 32 15 5 69
Minnesota 52 25 19 8 58
Calgary 53 24 22 7 55
Colorado 54 26 25 3 55
Edmonton 53 21 27 5 47

(updated 2.7.2012 at 7:26 AM MST)

21 - 27 - 5

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Clear Victory Standings

Western Conference

  1. Detroit Red Wings (22-7, .759)
  2. San Jose Sharks (13-5, .722)
  3. Vancouver Canucks (17-7, .708)
  4. St. Louis Blues (11-6, .647)
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  11. Anaheim Ducks (10-14, .417)
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  14. Minnesota Wild (7-13,.350)
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Eastern Conference

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  10. Winnipeg Jets (10-14, .417)
  11. Carolina Hurricanes (9-13, .409)
  12. Florida Panthers (7-11, .389)
  13. Buffalo Sabres (7-14, .333)
  14. Tampa Bay Lightning (9-19, .321)
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Division Standings

  1. Central (50-38, .568)
  2. Northeast (49-38, .563)
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