Defending the Bulin Wall
by SumOil on Feb 25, 2010 9:24 PM MST
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Einstien defined insantiy as " expecting different results by trying to do the same things over again". I am sure If he was still alive and an Oiler fan, he would have invented the time machine to get the hell out of this era. Over the last four off-seasons, there has been only one thing constant about the Oilers: Chasing a relatively big name player and throwing ridiculous amounts of money at him! Hossa, Chara, Vanek. Penner, Jagr the list is endless. What is more frustrating is that while they were after the superstars, they did not do anything to fill the holes the roster has!
Lets just forget about the previous summers and talk about the last one. A season where we got left out of the playoff spot. Our GM talked about bringing in players to help improve the toughness at forward and the defense. What did they do? Chased Heatley, overpaid Khabibulin and signed Comrie!! How did that make our team any tougher? Beats me . Now I am not going to go in detail with the other two subjects, but focus mainly on the Bulin wall. Even though I am extremely mad with the current organisation, the Bulin signing isnt one that angers me. On the contrary, I am one of the few people who have been for the signing. Let's look at the reasons after the jump
Lets first take a look at the goal-tenders available this summer (I am not including Roloson on that list because we all suspected that he will not be coming back):
- Nikolai Khabibulin
- Martin Biron
- Craig Anderson
- Ty Conklin
- Scott Clemmensen
- Manny Fernandez
- Manny Legace
Lets be honest here, Khabibulin was easily the best goalie available then. Many who thought that Biron was a better goalie should see that he is having a poor season as a member of NYI which is a better team than the Oilers. Of this bunch, only Craig Anderson has had a season that can be considered a success. Well, sure there is Ty Conklin, but signing him would have been a PR disaster, but that is another day`s story. This is what Lowetide had to write about Khabibulin signing (dated 22nd July)
So I began looking at reasons why the Oilers would have made this decision. At this blog and others everyone was well aware of the plethora of good goaltenders available through free agency this summer and it was completely reasonable to believe the Oilers could get a bargain who would also be more than adequate. However, as a new hire I'm not certain Tambellini would choose starting goaltender as the position he'd like to get ballsy on, especially with the new head coach probably expressing a strong desire for a proven starter.
If a team like Philadelphia had suddenly entered the picture, or Chicago pushed harder to bring Khabibulin back, the Oilers could easily have been on the outside looking in July 1 (in terms of a proven starter, which was clearly the priority).
I completely agree with him here. All Steve Tambellini talked about was making the playoffs and hence he went ahead and grabbed the best goalie available. Did he overpay?
Yes. Did he give a contract too long
? Yes again. However was there a better goalie available?
No. Was there another goalie available with a better track record
? No! The thing is that Steve Tambellini did not think that other teams werent looking for great goaltending. The teams that did not have a clear #1 goalie, were looking for a rebuild. They werent thinking about the play-offs. Amongst the teams that signed a new goalie last summer it was only the Oilers who wanted a turn-around!
Now lets look at his stats:
18-7-9-2 SV% .909
Yeah of course his SV% is below the league average, but think about the quality of shots he has faced! There have been too many and most of them of high quality ones. His EV sv% is 0.924 just behind that of Brodeur @ 0.925. Again not spectacular, but its decent. If again you take in the quality of the team he is playing for, it isnt too bad. Another thing to be considered is the SV% of the other goalies on this team. It is below .900. That goes to show that it was Khabibulin who was carrying the team on his 'back'. There were 5 games where he had SV% of upwards of .930! If we consider that 90% of those games are generally victories, if he played 60 games, that alone would have been 15 victories!
Despite missing time with injuries, he has averaged 50 games every season since the lockout!
So him playing just 18 games in a season is an anomaly. W
here the management screwed up was to not provide for a proper back-up that could play about 30 games and be consistent. One thing every fan here will agree with me is this fact: This season all the fears have come true in a collective manner. Everything that could have possibly gone wrong has gone wrong. This season is the definition of the 'worst case scenario'.
Whenever things go wrong with(in) an organisation, everyone starts making a huge deal out of any and all negative publicity. If the Oilers were at the top of the division, we would have chalked Khabibulin's arrest to a player just having too much fun and getting carried away. However that hasnt happened. Hence we are having the Khabibulin bashing competition.If you ask me, I am just tired of this season. Every game all we can do is whine about how the season is going on. Everyday we find new things to criticize. I know that there nothing else to talk about. Trust me, that frustrates me more than anyone else. I have been an Oiler fan only for the last 4 years. The season I started following hockey, we traded away Ryan Smyth and had that epic losing stretch. All I have seen is loss, loss and more loss. I am sick and tired of the management making one error after another. The blunder was not going into the rebuild mode any sooner. The error wasn't signing the Bulin Wall, the error was to think that we can make the playoffs with the kind of roster that we have!! The error was to trade away Brodziak, the error was to not sign for Blair Betts. The error was to let the captain play as many games as he has! The error was to stand pat and let many trade opportunities get away! So rather than hitting the man when he is low, lets all get-together as fans and urge the management to be more pro-active. Let us all send a message to them saying that they cannot jerk us around for four season and tell us " Oh we have just begin the rebuild ". If that is case then I ask them WHAT THE FUCK WERE YOU GUYS DOING TILL NOW!!
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Thanks SumOil, it’s nice to see that someone else mostly shares my opinion on Khabby.
There’s no doubt the signing was a risk that ended this season in the worst way possible. He’s missed about 10-20 games to injury each of the last few seasons, and it’s reasonable to think that would get worse. Especially, as you point out, if you don’t have a backup that your coach trusts and you end up playing 18 of 20 games. However – I don’t know what his past injuries were, but he is not, as many people have been insisting lately, a goalie with chronic back problems – he missed 12 games two years ago to back spasms and (going by SB nations T/I/S list) hasn’t had any other back problems.
I think it’s too easy to look back at a signing and pretend other teams weren’t interested and it was therefore a terrible deal. The per year $ amount I don’t think is an overpay for a UFA starting goalie. Khabibulin himself said that the term was the reason he chose Edmonton, suggesting the per year amount was pretty consistent with other offers he received. Other signings of actual starting goaltenders have had Theodore at 4.5 per, Huet at 5.4 per, Leclaire at 3.8 per. Hell, Rinne just signed for 3.4 per despite posting a 90.2 Sv% this season. But yeah, the term was an overpay and (as an understatement) is likely not the way you want to overpay an aging goalie.
I’ll just say one more thing – as much as I liked Roloson and would’ve loved to see him back this year (and next), Khabibulin is a much more calm and controlled goaltender. I honestly think he played better than his (decent) stats showed this year and kept the team in games they had no business being in.
Khabibulin is a much more calm and controlled goaltender. I honestly think he played better than his (decent) stats showed this year and kept the team in games they had no business being in.
Except for the two Calgary games to begin the season, He was one of the few players on this team who made a difference game in and game out in a positive manner.
Also yeah its the term that hurts the most. But judging by the the way things have gone so far, we may still be in a rebuilding phase and playing a lot of players on entry-level deals! I dont think it will be the money spent on Bulin that will hurt us as much 3 seasons from now will the the money spent on Horcoff!!
List of statements you have made I do not agree with:
1 – Khabibulin was easily the best goalie available
I would posit that he had the best track record of success for those goalies available, but because of potential price, injury history, and actual performace in recent seasons, I do not accept that he was the best at that time. Nor do I accept that he would be the best during the years of his contract as most goalies of his age or older tend to be years of declining ability, whereas most of the other goalies you list are either young enough to potentially continue to improve, or are likely at the peak of their game.
2 – “Ty Conklin, but signing him would have been a PR disaster”
If you can bring back Mike Comrie, you can bring back anybody. Hell,, I’d bet that if they needed to, they could bring back Pronger now (not that anyone would want that…)
3 – Was there another goalie available with a better track record? No!
If past performance is an indication of future performace, Bulin was one of the worst options of those available. His declining play, and injury history alone make him a terrible bet, especially to sign for 4 years.
4 – Another thing to be considered is the SV% of the other goalies on this team. It is below .900. That goes to show that it was Khabibulin who was carrying the team on his ‘back’.
I would suggest that the poor SV% of the goalies who have been playing for the Oielrs are a result of poor territorial play by the Oilers. #35 did not have to play the majority of his games without significant players who push the puck into the offensive end of the rink like Hemsky and others. The team that has been playing in front of JDD and DD has been significantly worse than the team that played infront of Nik before his injury. Considering his history with back injury, I suspect his doctors and the Oilers medical and training staff would have issues with Nik carrying Toni Rajala on his back, let alone the Oilers.
5 – There were 5 games where he had SV% of upwards of .930! If we consider that 90% of those games are generally victories, if he played 60 games, that alone would have been 15 victories!
He has played 60 games exactly 1 season out of 4 since the lockout. Add this season and that’s 1 of 5. 60 games was the exact ammount he played in 2006-2007. He has not played more that 60 games in back to back seasons since the 1990s.
6 – One thing every fan here will agree with me is this fact: This season all the fears have come true in a collective manner. Everything that could have possibly gone wrong has gone wrong. This season is the definition of the ‘worst case scenario’.
No, this is definitely a best case senario – The Oilers suck and we have an opportunity to get some potentially elite players through the draft and jettison floatsam contracts. And if managment f***s up selecting the players to add/remove from the team again like this past summer, they will have gone through a year of dumping a good coach and sucking, and another year of dumping players and still sucking, so there will only be one part of the team left to gut: Managment. Here’s hoping we suck in 2010-11 too.
1> There were only 2 legit number 1 goaltenders available this off-season- Biron and Khabibulin. Others were either very good-backups or one season wonder (read Clemensson). Last season Bulin was 6th on the Sv% list and Biron was 17th. Also, Even though Khabibulin missed time with injury, Chicago preffered to play him when he was healthy. It must be noted that Huet’s Sv% was .909 which is again considerably lower than Bulin, so better team excuse can be negated. Furthermore, there were stretches where Biron struggled to keep his job , often losing it to Nittymaki.
2> I mentioned Ty Conklin with respect to FA goalies having reasonable success. Conklin is not a starter and if signed should only be a back-up( a job at which he is very good).
3>His play wasnt declining. Actually he posted some very good numbers last season. Will he be as good at the end of his term.No. But at that time everyone assumed that he should at least be value for money for at least 2seasons.
4> That is not true. During Bulin’s time there was a stretch where Souray, Lubo and i think staois/ Smid were out. that was around the time when Swine flu was a big concern! Many of ourfwds were down too. This was the stretch during which we played Boston and Islanders and some other teams. I cant pin-point the right dates.
5>I concede . he hasnt played more than 60 games any time recently. But even at 50 games that does accounts for 14 wins. This was arbitrary and can really not be proved. So we should have signed a good back up goalie who would have been relied by the coaching staff to start at least 1/3 rd of the games!
6>This is the worst case scenario.The entire team sans a couple of players is under-performing, some players by a huge margin.To add to it Our best offensive player, goalie and defenseman are injured. Our coach doesnt believe in line-matching
However, it presents an excellent opportunity to do things right this time around. How much ever bad has happened. this season has laid down the ideal groundwork for a rebuild. The onus is now on the management take advantage of this situation and turn it into a positive scenario!
This is what should have happened after the Ryan Smyth trade, but we delayed and delayed and kept stretching the rubber-band.
But at that time everyone assumed that he should at least be value for money for at least 2 seasons.
Well… no they didn’t. There were a lot of people calling this one a failure from the get-go for a wide variety of reasons. Among them: only one good season post-lockout, unlikely to get average performance or better, money, term, injury history. There is, in my opinion, no way to look at this deal and see it as, in any way, a good idea. It says volumes about the deal when the team would be better off going forawrd if they’d gone with Dubnyk and Deslauriers all season.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 26, 2010 11:54 AM MST up reply actions
Lets be honest here, Khabibulin was easily the best goalie available then.
In the last four seasons, Khabibulin has been exposed to waivers and replaced by Cristobal Huet. his postlockout track record is three seasons of disaster with a resurgence in his contract year.
That’s not a good track record for a guy getting signed to a four year deal.
I am not including Roloson on that list because we all suspected that he will not be coming back.
Roloson and the team both stated that the only issue they couldn’t agree on was term – Roloson wanted two years while the Oilers refused to offer more than one. In light of subsequent events, that’s pertinent and you do your argument a disservice by rejecting Roloson from the list.
Many who thought that Biron was a better goalie should see that he is having a poor season as a member of NYI which is a better team than the Oilers.
Biron EV SV% with NYI: .922
Khabibulin EV SV% with EDM: .924
Interesting. As for being a better team than the Oilers, I don’t think that’s clear. The Oilers have been playing most of the year with AHL-level goaltending and have played in the tougher Western Conference; reverse the situations and I suspect the results would be very similar.
Another thing to be considered is the SV% of the other goalies on this team. It is below .900. That goes to show that it was Khabibulin who was carrying the team on his ‘back’.
The Oilers other goalies are AHL-level goalies. If I were Jeff Deslauriers’ backup, his numbers would be far superior to mine, but that wouldn’t mean he was carrying the team on his back – all it would mean is that he looked great compared to me.
Despite missing time with injuries, he has averaged 50 games every season since the lockout!
So him playing just 18 games in a season is an anomaly.
If you assume there is no cumulative effect from his age and previous injuries. That doesn’t strike me as a safe assumption – the more Khabibulin gets injured, the more likely he is to get re-injured. The risk also increases with age.
Everything that could have possibly gone wrong has gone wrong. This season is the definition of the ‘worst case scenario’.
Not so. The Oilers defence has seen far worse injury years in previous seasons (remember Bisaillon, Young and Syvret all playing on the same night?) and there have been some incredible breakouts – for instance, Dustin Penner.
Whenever things go wrong with(in) an organisation, everyone starts making a huge deal out of any and all negative publicity. If the Oilers were at the top of the division, we would have chalked Khabibulin’s arrest to a player just having too much fun and getting carried away.
Again, not so. Khabibulin’s signing was criticized in the summer, it was criticized in the fall when his dehydration problems became apparent, and it’s been criticized ever since. It was criticized from the get-go, not because of the Oilers’ misfortunes this season.
The failure of that contract stands on its own merits.
The error wasn’t signing the Bulin Wall, the error was to think that we can make the playoffs with the kind of roster that we have!
Has anyone of the factors you mentioned had as great an impact as the Khabibulin injury? No. Therefore, the primary error was in fact the Khabibulin signing.
A posse ad esse.
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by Jonathan Willis on Feb 26, 2010 11:51 AM MST reply actions
This team was 10th place at best with Hemsky, Souray and Khabibulin in the lineup. Don’t delude yourself. Khabibulin’s injury just exposed how bad this team is everywhere else.
by despisethesun on Feb 26, 2010 9:50 PM MST up reply actions
it surprises me how few people consider that Khabibulin is 19th amongst goalies in salary with two others(Hiller and Ward) that have extensions for more as well. Plus, if he gets hurt his salary doesn’t count against the cap and if he retires his cap hit can be traded with a low round draft pick to a non-cap team like Florida. Being in the bottom third of teams when it comes to goalie salaries should be a good thing. He was likely signed because Tambellini didn’t want to have another Cloutier (good in the regular season, bad in the playoffs). Khabibulin was likely also signed knowing that he would be a good mentor for our young goalies, we would not win a cup this year, and that if we were doing badly he could be sidelined to better our draft position. This is evidenced by the team making no move to acquire a backup over the summer or when Khabibulin went down. I don’t generally accept what management says at face value because they don’t always benefit from being honest.
by DuLock on Feb 26, 2010 12:20 PM MST via mobile reply actions
Lets be honest here, Khabibulin was easily the best goalie available then.
I’m not sure how you can say this, Sum. Khabibulin wasn’t even in the top 3.
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