Edmonton’s Top 25 Under 25: #10 Gilbert Brule
Copper & Blue’s consideration of the best young players in the Edmonton Oilers organization continues today, and we finally crack the top-10. Gilbert Brule had an incredible junior career, and at one time was considered Sidney Crosby’s chief competition for the right to go first overall in the 2005 NHL Entry Draft.
Suffice to say that there’s no debate over which of the two is going to be a better pro. There have been some bumps along the way for Brule, who almost certainly made his NHL debut too early and more importantly has had to overcome a ton of injuries to get to where he is today. When the Oilers acquired him from Columbus in exchange for Raffi Torres, he was a reclamation project, a guy who couldn’t score in the AHL let alone the NHL.
He’s more than that today. In our collective opinion, he’s one of the Oilers 10 best players under the age of 25.
I should start by saying that I’ve always considered myself a pessimist on the career of Gilbert Brule. I still consider myself a pessimist when considered against the majority of Oilers’ fans, but I’m in the optimistic minority here at Copper & Blue, as the rankings above show.
Any look at Brule should start with injuries. More than any other young player on the roster, injuries have shaped and limited Brule's career - and on a roster featuring Marc Pouliot, that's saying a lot. What I've decided to do is run Brule's NHL numbers and equivalencies over an 82-game season (in years spent in more than one league, a weighted average is used) since his draft year. Underneath those, I'll show where he was hit by injuries.
| Season | GP | G | A | PTS |
| 2004-05 | 82 | 14 | 17 | 31 |
| 2005-06 | 82 | 21 | 16 | 37 |
| 2006-07 | 82 | 9 | 11 | 20 |
| 2007-08 | 82 | 3 | 11 | 14 |
| 2008-09 | 82 | 13 | 9 | 22 |
| 2009-10 | 82 | 20 | 23 | 43 |
Brule's numbers fall off a cliff between 2005-06 and 2006-07, and there are a few different reasons for that. The first reason is that 2006-07 was the first full season Brule spent in the NHL, and as we've seen time and again, the jump from junior to professional hockey is a big one.
The other big reason is injury. In 2005-06, Brule suffered the following:
- Sternal clavicular sprain (18 games lost)
- Broken right leg (18 games lost)
I wouldn't be the same after suffering those injuries, either physically or mentally, and it's easy to picture those as contributers to Brule's struggles.
The story of 2007-08 is a simple one, and one that Oilers fans do well to keep in mind. One of the things I keep hearing from the optimists is that Brule has an elite-level shot - something that's contributed to his 13.2 SH% this season. Well, in 2007-08, Brule shot the puck 74 times and scored one lousy goal. One. That's a 1.4% shooting percentage over the course of 61 games, and while it's an unsustaianbly low number it's one we need to remember before we start projecting his pace this season over the coming years.
Last year, Brule's first with the Oilers, he spent most of the season playing for the woeful Springfield Falcons, and had a cameo in an Oilers uniform. It wasn't a surprise when he made the team out of camp this year, but his success since has been, given that he's in the middle of his best-ever season.
It's a season where Brule's finally surpassed those gorgeous junior offensive projections, a season where he's held his own playing with good players. It's also a season where offence hasn't been Brule's only strength; he's shown a penchant for vicious hits, such as ones that sidelined Detroit's Valtteri Filppula and Joel Perrault of the Phoenix Coyotes. He's been run out against lousy opponents (he ranks 14th(!) among Oilers forwards in QualComp), but he's also been out for a lot of defensive zone draws and he has both shiny offensive results and a positive relative Corsi.
Despite that modest success, I think the Oilers should trade him, for two reasons. The first of which is that they don't need players who can keep their heads above water playing against lousy players. They need players who can do it against good players, and Brule isn't there yet. The second reason is that Brule's success this season had been almost completely dependant on playing with Dustin Penner. The chart below shows goal and shot ratios with Brule and Penner on the ice for the Oilers at even-strength. Notice the difference between Brule with and without Penner.
| Player | Goals For (per 10 against) | Shots for (per 100 against) |
| Brule & Penner | 14.4 | 107.1 |
| Brule w/o Penner | 7.2 | 80.2 |
| Penner w/o Brule | 9.6 | 102.5 |
It's true that Penner's numbers are better with Brule than without him, although I tend to believe that has more to do with the quality of competition than with Brule himself (Penner ranks fifth in QualComp, so he's clearly facing far tougher minutes than Brule). Brule without Penner has been a trainwreck: outscored 18 to 13 and outshot 380 to 205.
Why do I rank him so high, then? Two reasons. The first reason is that complimentary players still have some value, and Brule can fill a second line role playing with Penner. The second, more important reason is that I believe there are a lot of general managers out there who see a sixth overall pick finally living up to his potential, both scoring and adding a physical element, and that has a lot of value.
Brule's a useful player. He's an even more useful trading chip.
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31 comments
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Comments
… Tiptoes away before anyone notices …
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 22, 2010 5:33 PM PST up reply actions
I was pretty surprised when I saw where the two of you ranked him. I thought that I was going to be the lowest by a wide margin.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’ve seen no signs he’s going to get better, and what he is now ain’t no hell.
by Benjamin Massey on Feb 22, 2010 6:02 PM PST up reply actions
He’s gotten a LOT better just since last season.
Among Oiler forwards Brule ranks:
4th in goals
4th in points
3rd in ESP/60
5th in +/- ON/60
4th in Corsi Rel QoC
10th in Corsi Rel QoT
3rd in GVT
1st in FO% (100 or more faceoffs)
3rd in hits
3rd in Sh%
8th in TOI
12th in cap hit
I find all of that more than a little encouraging. Bear in mind this guy just turned 23; he’s 23 months younger than, for example, Patrick O’Sullivan, who despite being 23 months older, ranks far behind Brule in many of the categories listed (9th/9 in FO%, 9th in hits, 12th in Sh%, 12th in +/- ON/60, 6th in GVT, 4th in cap hit, easier QoC, better QoT) . I’m frankly shocked that Brule ranks behind POS on C&B’s top 25, but what can I say? I only have one vote.
Brule’s career has been set back by injury and his current season has been “plagued” by illness, yet he has made important steps. I’m not sure I buy the imperative to sell high on this guy; maybe we should try hanging on to the fellows who are achieiving some degree of success.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 22, 2010 7:18 PM PST up reply actions
O’Sullivan has a record of putting up results on better teams than Edmonton. Brule has a record of flopping on teams only slightly better than Edmonton. O’Sullivan is usually healthy, Brule, er, is not. O’Sullivan plays with idiots and gets no results, Brule only plays well with Penner.
To put it another way: Stortini defender! Your arguments are automatically invalid!
by Benjamin Massey on Feb 22, 2010 7:33 PM PST up reply actions
I’ll feel a lot more confident if he has some sustain. I’ll admit up front that I have seen Brule bad since training camp and haven’t liked his game a whole lot. He seems to wander quite a bit in the DZ and put himself out of position to make hits (though I think he’s improved on this one over the course of the season). He’s also small and doesn’t have much in the way of offence (this is his best season and he’s trying to hold on to 0.5 PPG). I’ll feel silly about having him so low if he has some sustain but I was pretty spooked by the three years prior to this one. I basically said to myself, “Let’s assume this year didn’t have happen for Brule, where would you put him?” and then I split the difference.
With the comparison to O’Sullivan, I think Patrick is having a bad year but he tracks ahead of Brule at 20, 21 and 22, at least in terms of offence. I’d give O’Sullivan the edge on who will have the better career going forward.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 22, 2010 8:54 PM PST up reply actions
With the comparison to O’Sullivan, I think Patrick is having a bad year but he tracks ahead of Brule at 20, 21 and 22, at least in terms of offence.
You mean “at the very least”, right? Because defensively, Brule is a mess, and I don’t ever remember seeing O’Sullivan and gritting my teeth because he was lost.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Really? You like O’Sullivan’s defence? Really???
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 22, 2010 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
He doesn’t make me lose enamel like Brule.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Well Brule’s defensive numbers are way better across the board:
SA/60: Brule 27.2, O’Sullivan 30.2
GA/60: Brule 2.59; O’Sullivan 3.65
… and I know this one will draw a big negative reaction but I’ll mention it anyway:
Staples Errors: Brule 4 primaries + 11 secondaries = 15; O’Sullivan 15 + 15 = 30 (!)
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 22, 2010 10:46 PM PST up reply actions
Staple Jacques to Brule’s wing for half a season and see if those numbers hold up.
Actually, we have a brief glimpse and they were shelled together too.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Agreed that explains part of the difference. I’ve been rooting for JFJ too, but unfortunately, he sucks.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 22, 2010 10:55 PM PST up reply actions
w.r.t. age comparisons, bear in mind that Brule’s birthday is Jan. 1, and O’Sullivan’s Feb 1 – which literally IS the cutoff. On hockey-reference.com for example, POS is listed as just a year older when in fact it’s a shade under 2 full years difference. You’re better off to compare O’Sullivan’s 21 y.o. season to Brule’s 20 y.o. season, etc.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 22, 2010 9:18 PM PST up reply actions
Which would make Brule’s 2009-10 comparable to O’Sullivan’s 2007-08, which still isn’t overly flattering for Brule.
A posse ad esse.
The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!
Twitter: @JonathanWillis
Mail: jonathan.willis@live.ca
by Jonathan Willis on Feb 22, 2010 9:43 PM PST up reply actions
I would have been a lot higher on POS two years ago than I am now, no doubt about it.
Put another way, if Brule does a POS and tanks his next two seasons after peaking at 23, I’ll probably be down on him too. But at this point in time, Brule is trending up and O’Sullivan isn’t.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 22, 2010 10:47 PM PST up reply actions
You raise a good point but as Jonathan said, I don’t think it helps Brule any. It makes it hard to compare Brule’s 20 y/o season since Brule was a terrible NHL player and O’Sullivan was a very good junior player in the comparable year. I’d give the edge to O’Sullivan but you could argue the other way too. For Brule’s 21 and 22 y/o season, I think O’Sullivan still has him clearly beat and it looks very much like O’Sullivan will beat Brule’s 23 y/o season as well.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 22, 2010 10:01 PM PST up reply actions
“One of the things I keep hearing from the optimists is that Brule has an elite-level shot”
Link?
Those optimists must be the same mysterious Hemsky haters that LT keeps talking about.
I’m not sure how widespread the sentiment is so your criticism may still be valid but LT himself said something along those lines (though “elite-level” would be a stretch considering his comments) very recently:
…Brule can score goals (has a nice release and can find lanes)…
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 23, 2010 9:48 AM PST up reply actions
Sure. It was a quick search for a comment about his shot. There are people that mark that as a plus skill for Brule. I think that’s true. I expect that Jonathan is likely using hyperbole in the original post.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 23, 2010 11:32 AM PST up reply actions
Going back to his draft day, Brule’s shot was touted as high end.
Brule has one of the hardest, most accurate shots we’ve ever seen in the WHL.
It’s possible I’m exaggerating (with my perception colouring my memory) but IIRC I’ve seen a lot of people praise his shooting ability.
A posse ad esse.
The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!
Twitter: @JonathanWillis
Mail: jonathan.willis@live.ca
by Jonathan Willis on Feb 23, 2010 12:05 PM PST up reply actions
That being the case, do you think we should put more credence in his shooting ability?
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 23, 2010 12:53 PM PST up reply actions
That year he had in Columbus was brutal. Just brutal. I don’t know what happened; maybe he lost it to injury, but I’m inclined to view him as a ~10%-ish shooter until he proves otherwise.
A posse ad esse.
The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!
Twitter: @JonathanWillis
Mail: jonathan.willis@live.ca
by Jonathan Willis on Feb 23, 2010 1:52 PM PST up reply actions
Whereas 10.0% has been an as-yet-irreproducible upper end for noted shooter Patrick O’Sullivan. Shooting ability is yet another area where I rate Brule higher.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 23, 2010 2:07 PM PST up reply actions
I don’t disagree. But volume-wise O’Sullivan > Brule, and while O’Sullivan’s SH% is unlikely to drop Brule’s currently at 2X his career rate.
A posse ad esse.
The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!
Twitter: @JonathanWillis
Mail: jonathan.willis@live.ca
by Jonathan Willis on Feb 23, 2010 2:16 PM PST up reply actions
And before you bring it up, I’m aware Brule’s career rate is probably lower than his actual ability, I just think his actual ability is likely lower than his 09-10 rate (though I could be wrong on that).
A posse ad esse.
The Copper & Blue|OilersNation|Hockey or Die!
Twitter: @JonathanWillis
Mail: jonathan.willis@live.ca
by Jonathan Willis on Feb 23, 2010 2:17 PM PST up reply actions
off the rails
guys. love the ou usually do here, but this top 25 list is just not up to snuff. the huge differences in your opinions and your obvious favouritis and hate for certain players is verging on the absurd.
i apprciate that you’re trying a new “way” of handling the rankings, but this is not the way to do it.
5th to 17th? c’mon. i’m with jon…trade the guy…and if we evaluate by that metric i highly doubt that 3 of you value him as the 17th best asset we have under 25.
Personally, I’m not evaluating by that metric in any of the rankings. I’ve evaluated all of these guys as players, not as assets. And I don’t think Brule is a very good player.
I’m interested to hear what you dislike about the method. Is it that we’re ranking everyone under 25? If so, what’s wrong with that? I can guarantee that if we were just doing “prospects” that we’d still have some rather wide gaps in some of the rankings. What’s wrong with “the way we’re doing it”?
I actually think the discrepancies in opinion are instructive because they show a range of opinion that reflects the likely range of outcomes for most of the players. In Brule’s case maybe Jon and Bruce are right and he becomes a solid player. On the other hand, maybe Ben and I are right and he flames out. We’ll see, but I think expecting everyone to agree about every player is a little much.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 24, 2010 7:39 AM PST up reply actions
I have found it an interesting exercise to simply consider every player in the org under the cutoff age and try to project his future value. You won’t find two professional scouts who agree on 90% of these guys, so why would we be any different?
As for “obvious favourites and hate for certain players”, speaking for myself there are reasons why I like certain players and don’t like others, and those reasons are entirely applicable here. It’s typically based on how I see them as helping/hurting the team. I’ve tried to leave contract matters out of it or I would have ranked a couple guys lower than I did.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 24, 2010 12:38 PM PST up reply actions























