Trade Target - Brandon Dubinsky (C - NYR)
Once again, I've decided to steal from Fear The Fin's outstanding trade targets idea. You can see all of The Copper & Blue's trade targets here.
The first trade target that The Copper & Blue investigated was Stephen Weiss. Weiss was a primary target because he brought many things to the Oilers that don't exist on the current roster -- an affordable, outplayable contract, a legitimate NHL center, and a center that can win faceoffs -- acquiring Weiss fixes two years of roster holes in Edmonton. The second target is in the same vein, a real NHL center that can bring depth down the middle for the Oilers.
Brandon Dubinsky has pulled off the difficult task of being an underrated player during his time in New York. While the stars making the big bucks (Scott Gomez, Chris Drury, Jaromir Jagr, Marian Gaborik, Henrik Lundqvist, Wade Redden and Michal Rozsival) and the headline-grabbing runt make all of the noise, Dubinsky has remained quietly effective. Even his young teammate Ryan Callahan has grabbed more headlines because of his bone-crunching hitting ability.
Dubinsky has been taking on second and third-level minutes for the last three years with mostly second-level teammates and second-best zonestarts. His Corsi has been top-notch and he's been outscoring. His faceoff percentage is sparkling, something the Oilers desperately need.
Dubinsky has also been recognized as the Rangers best penalty killer over the last two years, but a closer looks reveals that he's riding one heck of a lucky streak when killing penalties. During the 2008-2009 season, Dubinsky averaged 59 seconds per game on the penalty kill, 6th most on the Rangers. He played 80 short-handed minutes for the season and during that time, the Rangers gave up...one goal. It's an amazing number, especially considering that the Rangers scored two goals in those 80 minutes. Dubinsky's GAON/60 was a microscopic .74 - mind-bogglingly low. Dubinsky had a bit of help in that department, as his penalty kill save percentage while on the ice was .982, six points higher than the next highest Ranger, Chris Drury. In 2009-2010, Dubinsky is averaging 2:12 per game on the penalty kill, third most on the Rangers, and his GAON/60 is 3.88, not nearly as impressive as last season, but still an amazing number in it's own right. The Rangers have given up only seven power play goals with Dubinsky on the ice. His SVPCTON this year is .901, second highest on the team and still above the norm for standard NHL penalty kills.
Brandon Dubinsky is yet another example of a player that the Oilers desperately need -- a second minutes player that can contribute offensively, is effective on the penalty kill and is superior in the faceoff circle. Unless the Oilers believe that Chris VandeVelde can make the jump from North Dakota to the penalty kill next year, they need to be aggressive in trading for someone like Weiss or Dubinsky.
What will it take to land Dubinsky? Assuming that Daryl Katz is being honest and Steve Tambellini will bury salary in the minors, Edmonton should take advantage of the Rangers cap issues (the Rangers are at $45,500,000 already next year and need to re-sign Enver Lisin, Daniel Girardi and Marc Staal) and pluck Dubinsky away for some inexpensive contracts. Dubinsky is signed through the 2010-2011 season for $1,875,000 and will likely get a hefty Dave Bolland-type raise. Would Andrew Cogliano and Ladislav Smid be enough to get Dubinsky out of New York? I think that's close, and if that's the price, I pull the trigger.
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I haven’t seen much of Dubinsky to be completely honest so any opinion will be based almost exclusively on numbers. I’m a little leery about giving up two players for him because he hasn’t played in enough tough situations yet. Seconds and thirds with good starts in the East is pretty cushy and he’d probably be asked to provide cover rather than benefit from it in Edmonton. Cogliano and Dubinsky don’t look far enough apart (there are areas where Cogliano looks to be better, a much better penalty differential as one example) to justify including Smid. This is especially true if Cogliano’s next contract is significantly less expensive than Dubinsky’s. I understand that Dubinsky fits the roster’s needs better than Cogliano – the PK experience is a real plus – and that he’s done well with the minutes he’s been given but tif you believe Smid is improving (I do) it’s an awfully steep price. If it was Cogliano straight up or Cogliano and a pick I’d be on board.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 20, 2010 10:07 PM PST reply actions
Is Smid improving enough that he’s significantly clear of Motin, Peckham, Petry and a replacement veteran at minimum to $1,200,000?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’d say Smid is significantly clear of all but the anonymous veteran. He’s also the closest thing we have to a cheap top 6 defenceman at $1.3 MM cap hit through 2011.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 21, 2010 2:30 PM PST up reply actions
I’d say that Smid is well clear of all of those guys. Motin can’t stay in the lineup consistently in the AHL, I’ve never really liked Peckham and the last thing I want to do is rush Petry to the NHL. As for the replacement veteran, it depends who you get but if we’re talking Strudwick’s level then yeah, he’s well clear of that. He’s only 23 this year and doesn’t score a whole lot which should keep him pretty cheap going forward. If they take Visnovsky away from him next year it should give a good indication of where he’s at. I’d be interested in seeing him paired with Gilbert against the toughs for a few games. I’m not opposed to moving him as part of a package but it would need to be for an established difference-maker.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 21, 2010 3:19 PM PST up reply actions
I’m not opposed to moving him as part of a package but it would need to be for an established difference-maker.
Give me a class of player.
Wes Walz?
Joni Pitkanen?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Someone as good as Joni Pitkanen playing the position of Wes Walz. Call it “the Stephen Weiss.”
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 21, 2010 7:41 PM PST up reply actions
You can’t cross the streams!
Cogliano, Smid, Grebs for Weiss? Ok!
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Something like this makes sense to me. Acquiring a + player for a slew of maybes who are still legit NHL guys.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 21, 2010 8:41 PM PST up reply actions
To add, it doesn’t make much sense for Florida IMO. You just need to hope they think it does.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 21, 2010 8:42 PM PST up reply actions
I think Dubinsky would cost less – the Rangers are going to have some cap issues next year.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Less than the original Smid-Cogliano proposal? Like I said above if it’s Cogliano and a pick (3rd or lower given the Oilers’ draft position) I’d be very pleased.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 21, 2010 9:32 PM PST up reply actions
RANGER FAN HERE!!
I know that Sather is a total idiot but Dubi for Smid and Cogliano will never happen. Dubinsky is one of the few bright spots on the Rangers and the only way he would be traded is for a proven scorer. The only chance this trade would happen is if the Oilers took Redden’s contract with it.
Sorry guys, no chance you are getting Dubi w/o taking Redden too….not gonna happen. Cogliano would not survive the hard hitting East. We’ve heard those rumors for half a season now. the Rangers don’t need to get rid of Dubinsky unless the perfect deal for them comes around, which translates into major cap relief in the form of Redden, Rozsival or Drury(no movement clause) going the other way so they can go out and land Kovalchuk. I think your more likely to see Dubi go to Florida for Nathan Horton though.
Please!
Please dont take my Dubi away from us! He’s one of the few hard working players we have that will battle every shift every night. Please keep your Souray in Canada, kind sirs. If this happens Im gonna believe that some of you Edmonton people have something you’re blackmailing Glen Sather with. :)
Favre 4 Ever
I Believe In Chris Drury
last years first playoff game against Washignton...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0yTha-0SECw
personally i hope this guy stays rangers for life even if it means passing on Horton.

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