Pat Quinn on Scoring Chances

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 2, 2010 12:42 AM PST Comment 11 comments

In Pat Quinn's post-game interview he mentioned the Oilers internal scoring chance count for the game on Saturday against the Flames. Quinn's final tally was 21-15 in favour of the Flames with Marc Pouliot having more chances than most of the Oiler forwards. As most of you know, Dennis King has been counting scoring chances for the Oilers this season and he had the scoring chances from Saturday's game as 26-10 in favour of Calgary with nothing particularly special for Pouliot.

Now, 26-10 and 21-15 are two very different hockey games. Kent Wilson is also counting scoring chances this season for the Flames but he hasn't logged this game quite yet, what with all the trade activity over the last couple of days. I'm going to be very interested to see what Kent comes up with for this one. Assuming Kent's take is similar to that of Dennis (though I expect there to be fewer chances overall from Kent who tends to be a bit more conservative) what are some possible explanations for the discrepancy? Maybe Quinn misspoke and six was really supposed to be sixteen. Maybe a "scoring chance" has a substantially different definition for the Oilers than it has for us. Maybe Quinn is trying to make the Oilers sound better than they actually were in the media. Maybe Dennis was drinking while logging the chances :) I'm not sure but it sure would be exciting to get a log of all of the times the Oilers counted a scoring chance if 21-15 represents the real tally.

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I've got this game PVR'd

I should take a rip through it tonight.

by mc79hockey on Feb 2, 2010 9:36 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

That would be taking one for the team, for sure. Horrible, horrible game. You should replay your date instead.

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"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 2, 2010 11:15 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

row sham bow with a donkey might be a better use of time than watching that game.

by dawgbone98 on Feb 2, 2010 11:18 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

I’m banking on the difference being definition of scoring chance.

I did a couple of the games while Dennis went on his sabbatical away from Oiler games. I had to sort of change my definition of a scoring chance a bit. Dennis views a blocked shot as not a scoring chance, but I sometimes do (depending on the location and what not).

I’ll also view a defenceman making a diving poke check on a break away as a scoring chance, where as Dennis wouldn’t if no shot was taken.

There’s no set criteria really. In last nights game, the Carolina TV crew had the scoring chances as 8-3 (EDM) after 1 and then 7-6 (CAR) in the 2nd. Dennis has it as 8-4 and 7-6 EDM.

by dawgbone98 on Feb 2, 2010 9:44 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

The odd thing for me in that case is that the Flames have five fewer chance while the Oilers have five more which seems a little odd if the discrepancy is definition-based. I can’t really think of how something like that might happen. Maybe Dennis doesn’t count blocked shots and the Oilers don’t count missed ones? It would need to be something like that.

by Scott Reynolds on Feb 2, 2010 10:55 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Scoring chances

I also counted up scoring chances that game, as I’ve done about 20 times this year.

I had it as 22-13 for the Flames.

I don’t count blocked shots or missed shots — unless the missed shot is a breakaway. If there’s some defensive stop that prevents a scoring chance, even on a breakaway, that’s no scoring chance, IMO. That’s a great defensive play that prevents a scoring chance. Such a great defensive play could happen earlier up ice to prevent a potential scoring chance, so I don’t see why you’d count it as a scoring chance just because the defensive play happens later in the sequence. But each to his own.

For me, you have got to actually have a scoring chance — a real shot on net that could go in, and a shot where people wouldn’t be crapping all over the goalie for letting that weak shot in — for it to be a scoring chance.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Feb 2, 2010 9:50 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

To each their own.

I figure if a defenceman has to make a diving poke check on a breakaway or has to slide across and block a shot on an open net, there was a scoring chance there… the offensive team just failed to capitalize on it.

Likewise if a puck goes cross ice and the player on the other end puts an easy tap in wide, that’s a scoring chance.

I think you make a good argument for a Quality Shot on Goal, but I think you can have a scoring chance without it registering as a shot. I mean, if you give Iginla 10 uncontested shots from 15 feet out, those are scoring chances even if he misses the net on 3 of them (and yes, I’ll judge a scoring chance from one player differently from that of another).

You are in a quality shooting position, and that to me is the most important part of a scoring chance.

by dawgbone98 on Feb 2, 2010 9:58 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

One proviso

Outside of real shots that hit the net and could go in, as I mentioned, the one other kind of play I count as a scoring chance is where the forward has a shot on net from the slot, and there’s no defender between the net and the goalie.

Why count that, even if the forward doesn’t hit the net? Because there’s no reason the forward shouldn’t hit the net, he just misses his shot a bit. He could miss one way and hit the goalie, and that’d be a scoring chance. So why penalize him, in this specific instance, for missing the other direction, and missing the net?

But it has to be a clearcut scoring chance with no defender in the way, a real great chance to score, for me to credit this as a scoring chance. Otherwise, I think it best to be real hardcore and give credit only to tough shots on net form the slot, or tough shots on net from the point that are screened in front.

Scoring chances are meant to measure just that, not territorial play, like Corsi, so there’s no need to include blocked shots, IMO. A forward who has his shot blocked has screwed up just a bit, so he doesn’t deserve credit for a scoring chance.

by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Feb 2, 2010 9:56 AM PST reply actions 0 recs

Does anybody count the missed pass on the goalmouth as a SC?

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 2, 2010 11:00 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

Personally, I would, depending on the quality of the pass and what not.

My definition of a scoring chance is do you really want to see yourself in that position too many times? Sure the puck might bounce this time, but how many times do you want to play with fire?

by dawgbone98 on Feb 2, 2010 11:08 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

… speaking from the defence/goalie’s perspective, I take it.

Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries

"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg

by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 2, 2010 11:14 AM PST up reply actions 0 recs

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