Trade Target - Stephen Weiss (C - FLA)
Fear The Fin has been publishing an ongoing series about players that the Sharks may target at the trade deadline to solidify the team for a Stanley Cup run. It's such a good idea that I've decided to steal it. Of course, these moves aren't about solidifying the team, they are more about recovering from this spiral. Whether Steve Tambellini has the wherewithal to do this is another story that has already been written by just about everyone.
The Edmonton Oilers have lacked depth at the center position since the 2007-2008 season. For the first 2/3 of that season, Craig MacTavish was able to run Shawn Horcoff and Marty Reasoner at the tough minutes, Jarrett Stoll at the rest and shelter either Cogliano or Gagner, whichever was on the dot at the time. Since that season, while Horcoff has had the sisyphean task of playing all of the hard minutes himself, the Oilers have experimented with the following centers, in alphabetical order: Kyle Brodziak, Gilbert Brule, Andrew Cogliano, Ryan O'Marra, Patrick O'Sullivan, Dustin Penner, Fernando Pisani, Ryan Potulny, Marc Pouliot, and Zack Stortini. Edmonton's Dr. Moreau-like experiment at center has been a miserable failure. Enter Randy Sexton.
Sexton is the General Manager of the Florida Panthers. Yesterday he announced that, for the right price, every player on the Florida roster was available. He began by trading Dominic Moore to the Canadiens and word is that he's not close to finished. Sexton's firesale is just what the Oilers need, considering Florida center Stephen Weiss fixes about one-third of the problems with the Edmonton roster.
In my story last April about "The Best", meaning the players that consistently play the tough minutes and outscore their opponents, Stephen Weiss shockingly appeared as the number four tough minutes outscorer behind only Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg and Evgeni Malkin. At that time, over a two year span, Weiss played all of Florida's tough minutes, with tough starting position and was +33, or +.26 per 15 minutes of even strength time. Weiss was known to me only as the "pick that never panned out" in Florida. A look at his stats shows a completely different story:
Jonathan Willis has looked at the effects of playing in the Southeast, so there is the possibility that Weiss is racking up numbers against soft competition. In 2007-2008 at even strength, Weiss' most common opponents were Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Ilya Kovalchuk, Brad Richards, Eric Staal, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Ray Whitney, Viktor Kozlov, and Vyacheslav Kozlov. Weiss combined to outscore those ten opponents 21 GF - 18 GA at even strength. His most common opponents in 2008-2009 were Martin St. Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Vinny Prospal, Eric Staal, Tuomo Ruutu, Joffrey Lupul, Ray Whitney, Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Sergei Samsonov. Weiss combined to outscore these ten 12 GF 11 GA at even strength.
Over two years, Weiss outscored some of the best forwards in the league 33 GF - 29 GA
In Edmonton he wouldn't be asked to play the tough minutes as his primary role. At home, a line-matching coach would ask Horcoff to continue to match the tough minutes and on the road, the opposing coach will be forced to choose between matching Weiss or Sam Gagner. Weiss would end up playing something in the range of second tough minutes over the course of a season.
Aside from the even strength exploits, Weiss has been an effective second minutes power play center and has begun playing second minutes penalty kill for the Panthers and somewhat effectively. His faceoff numbers speak for themselves.
It gets even better. Weiss is signed to a beauty contract through 2012-2013. His cap hit and salary are an amazing $3,100,000 per year for the next three years. He's going to be 27 years old in April, still on the right side of 30 and presumably still growing as a player. This is a contract that is already being outplayed and should continue to do so for the duration of the deal.
So what is the downside of dealing for Weiss? I can't find one. There may be grumbling from the fanbase about Weiss because he's small and is not considered a superstar, but this is a guy that will fix a lot of what ills the Oilers. The hangup is that he has a no-trade clause, which means that the Rexall jet will have to make one trip to Miami filled the the merry band of beggars. Lowe and Katz might have to lay it on thick and show Weiss that they have some idea of what they're doing behind "We signed Nikolai Khabibulin!".
What would Florida want in return? It's difficult to say given that Sexton has thrown open the doors and the owners haven't given an indication as to what the new plan is. I've mentioned in previous conversations that I believe Denis Grebeshkov and Andrew Cogliano should be enough to get a deal like that done, but Steve Tambellini should be open to sending anything not named Sam Gagner, Tom Gilbert, Ales Hemsky, Magnus Pääjärvi-Svensson, Dustin Penner or the next two first-round picks to the Panthers in exchange for Weiss. Given the nature of the contract, Tambellini shouldn't be afraid to overpay just a bit to bring Weiss into the fold. His cap number is perfect for a team jammed up against the cap but in need of an outscoring center, a tough-minutes center, a center that can win faceoffs and a center than can contribute to the penalty kill. Sending Horcoff, Weiss, Gagner and Pouliot out every night would finally fix the issue that's been plaguing the Oilers for two years.
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There’s no downside to trading for Weiss from where I’m sitting either. However, despite Sexton’s public comments, I’d have to think it would take an absolute tonne to get him. If it doesn’t, then it would be unforgiveable for Tambellini to pass up the opportunity.
I’m willing to give up an absolute tonne.
What do you think would constitute a tonne?
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
If I’m Tambo, I’m not sacrificing my rebuild to help someone else rebuild unless it’s a good deal for both teams, or a GREAT deal for me.
RT40 writes with An Oilers Refinery and is an avid hockey fan.
by raventalon40 on Feb 13, 2010 12:19 PM PST up reply actions
I have no idea. I’m with you in that I’d give up a lot to get a guy like Weiss. In fact, my list of guys I wouldn’t include is even smaller than yours. I’d send Penner, Gilbert, or our 2011 first rounder in the right deal (I’d do everything I could to keep Gilbert, he’s just not a deal breaker though).
My problem with getting rid of Penner is that the team is now completely bereft of left wings. Gilbert has played a really sharp game this year and given his price, moving him would create some issues on the back, especially because he’s the one guy back there that isn’t injury prone and his game doesn’t lend itself to injuries.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m with “ykmisfit” he’s under rated, young and underpaid for a long time. Why in their right mind would FLA want to deal away this guy unless they were offered a kings ransom? If you’re rebuilding a franchise, he’s the one of the few pieces you keep.
All things Thrashers + stats: www.birdwatchersanonymous.com
by The Falconer on Feb 13, 2010 10:48 AM PST up reply actions
If I was the general manager of the Panthers I’d be inclined to go for nothing less than a crystal clear win. If the Oilers were interested I’d request Gagner plus one of 2010 1st or Paajarvi. If the Oilers aren’t interested, that’s fine, I can hold onto Weiss. He likes it in Florida and he’s a very good player. I need more of those, not fewer.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 13, 2010 11:51 AM PST up reply actions
I like Weiss a whole lot, but I wouldn’t make that deal.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 13, 2010 1:13 PM PST up reply actions
I would try Cogliano, the 2010 3rd and Eberle.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I’m pretty sure you’d get a no for that one from whoever is on the Florida side but I’d surely do that deal as well. There’s a very good chance that none of those three assets ever turn out to be as good as Weiss and it also serve to bring in another body in the Hemsky/Gilbert/Penner age cluster without giving up anything elite. Which is likely why it’s a no :)
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 14, 2010 8:16 AM PST up reply actions
Cogliano, Grebs and the 2011 first if I were running things, but I wouldn’t include the 1st if Tambellini is running things.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
It would be funny if it weren’t so sad.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I think that the biggest problem is that there isn’t any good reason for Weiss to prefer Edmonton over Florida that I can see. The no-trade clause pretty much kills any possibility of him coming here. Also – as others have said – there’s no reason for Florida to move him. Unless there’s at least one (and probably two) “A” level asset(s) coming back the other way I doubt they even consider it. If you could convince them that Eberle is an “A” that might be something to build around, but moving Eberle + doesn’t seem to fit the current organizational “rebuilding” strategy.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 13, 2010 11:30 AM PST reply actions
Do you rate Eberle and MPS about the same Traktor? And why would you ask for Lander instead of one of the other prospects, or would, say, Hartikainen be equally acceptable in his place (I’m assuming you rate Eberle and MPS ahead of Lander)?
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 13, 2010 7:14 PM PST up reply actions
I’d do Lander + Eberle in a second and figure out how to move contracts afterward.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Makes too much sense
I’d try a 3 way trade that moves one of Souray or Visnovsky to a contender but thats likely wishful thinking
weiss
he is still not big enough, the oil need a stud, 6’4"" 220lbs
If you say so. His lack of size doesn’t prevent him from beating the best.
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
I ask for Lander because he’s a sure bet. I think he’s next years Ryan O’reilly. The kid has already worn the C for his Swedish Elite team as a 19 year old. I have Eberle in the same bracket is MPS and Lander not too far down the list.
I never put “prospect” and “sure bet” together but I think I understand what you’re saying. Lander does a lot of the things you need to do in order to win. I’d put some separation between Eberle and MPS so I think we disagree slightly there but I do have those two well clear of the rest of the Oiler prospects. Thanks for the explanation Traktor.
by Scott Reynolds on Feb 14, 2010 9:05 AM PST up reply actions
I’m big on Lander too.
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Feb 14, 2010 1:37 PM PST up reply actions

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