The $10 MM checking line

Personally, I think thoe kind of numbers over that kind of window are going to be almost entirely noise.

That said, Pisani is done and Moreau was never any hell. I won’t be popular for saying it, but Horcoff is still a good player.

One day I’ll post some old shots metrics numbers from 02/03 and 03/04. They’re scraped from the old shift charts, so the resolution isn’t great, random error is going to be larger than now with the TOI sheets. Still, Pisani was a freaking beast. The puck just always ended up in the right end of the rink when he was out there. And surely the scoring chance numbers followed suit, they always do.

Since the summer of ‘06 though, Fernie has been a horror show. Look at his scoring chance numbers last year and this. Look at his shots+/- and corsi numbers … even a huge Pisani fan like me can’t rationalize that.

I suspect that Fernando’s first brush with colitis came in late December ‘05 and lasted up to the Olympics. The RPM line had been absolutely kicking ass before that. He was basing it on his loose feel of scoring chances, but he wasn’t keeping a hard count back then. Neither was I, but I knew he was right. I didn’t say so because I’d already wasted countless hours trying to convince the tools on the message boards that Pisani wasn’t just wasting a roster spot better spent on Jani Rita or some other B list prospect.

Moreau was the opportunist on that line, Reasoner and Pisani were the guys who were hard on the puck. And when Fernando’s game went for a shit, the line fell apart and the whole team struggled to outchance the opposition for a long stretch. We look back on that team as a crew that outchanced but were let down by goaltending. IMHO they were a team that outchanced for all but that stretch, and more than goaltending … the other teams were just making their shots. The universe demands that happens to someone, after all.

I remember when the Oilers were practicing just before or after the Oly break, Fernando was absent (Pronger had a broken/bruised foot during the aforementioned stretch as well BTW, that didn’t help). The dudes that had seen that Fernie wasn’t the Fernie of old speculated on the injury. Nobody guessed colitis.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t mind that Fernando got paid. It was an overpay, but as I said in a post called “29”, named after his playoff shooting%, he’s the kind of guy you don’t mind winning the lottery.

But he’s done. Just is.

D’Oh.

Typing fingers too slow.

On the ’05 swoon of Pisani mentioned above … it was Dennis who kept pointing it out.

To add on Moreau …

Not to pile on, the fanboys seem to have decided that the Oilers collection of failed 1st round draft picks will excel if Moreau is sent away, and that’s just nuts.

I suspect that Moreau is a decent guy, at least by hockey player standards. But he’s never been any hell. Granted, my own bias is towards guys who are hard on the puck, and that’s never been Ethan’s game. I defended him in years past when ALL of the Oilers problems were being hung on him, and later mocked the cats who voted him team MVP in 03/04. He is what he is.

In January of ‘02, when Ryan Smyth came back from injury way too soon, and was just terrible, the port side got shuffled by MacTavish. For one stretch he had Hecht playing with Marchant and Grier, and they were freaking awesome. A shame they didn’t get more puck luck, they logged brutal minutes and outchanced the bad guys terrifically. That said all I needed to know about Ethan’s game.

BTW: For a coupleof years after the lockout, on occasions when all were healthy, Hecht-Drury-Grier were an awesome checking line. I guess if you score too much they stop calling you a checking line, but that was their gig. Briere ended up looking like the star, and the Sabres had more than their share of puck luck for a year or so. Still, terrific line. All really good players IMO.

As I’m rambling … Grier was a hell of a player, I’m glad he’s still going. To my mind, the most frghtening hitter I’ve ever seen, and not in a gambling in open ice kind of way, just an honest player who made you pay. Broke my heart when they traded him. Pissed me off when they ran Marchant out of town as well. I know Todd wasn’t that popular, and his faith was maybe a bit much for some, and wearing an NHLPA jacket to an EIG function sealed his fate (I would have respected him mor for getting hammered at a Rexall function, a la Brodziak). Still, it was shitty the way MacTavish and Lowe handled Marchant at the end.

BTW:

Remember Lupulsmid? The game the whole family could play?

Run that exact reasoning on the 07/08 roster and Cole rises right up there with Horcoff, Penner, Hemsky. Gagner hangs in with that crowd, then a big dropoff to (of all people) Potulny, and then another big drop to the dregs.

Do the same for this year, Horcoff is right up there again. As is Penner (no better or worse than last year, hot and cold counting number streaks be damned) and Hemsky. Potulny held his spot and Stone, from completely off the radar, has joined him.

The rest of the Oiler forwards are exactly as Lupulsmid thought they were a year ago.

Pouliot is a guy with a real chance of being useful … he rest can go as far as I’m concerned. If one of them “breaks out” somewhere else, so be it. They have to clear out this shit and get some better forwards. Not better in the collective opinion of the HFerasts, just better players. The galling thing is that, ever since I’ve been following hockey, there has never been a time when useful, proven forwards were more affordable. The market always changes, so that will change soon enough, I suspect. And the Oilers are missing their window to correct their problems. Hell, they’re one of the reasons the market is off on this type of player.