Taylor Hall's Scoring Rates

Back in July I took a completely unscientific look at Taylor Hall's possible scoring totals for his rookie season.  I did so by comparing other similar draft picks and averaging their first season production.

My completely unscientific conclusion?

In the end, NHLE and these averages show that we can make an eighty-two game projection of 45-60 points buoyed by twenty-plus goals for the young left wing in his rookie season.  I'll use the two averages here to make a smaller inner band of 50-57 points.

Hall's shown the ability to score goals, though Shawn Horcoff's knee injury will have an adverse affect on Hall's scoring rates, and after the jump we look at his early season rates and how the stack up to the preseason prediction.

Both of the tables below are taken from the original article.  I've added in Hall's actual projections as the last line of each table, noted with "(proj)".

Year Player GP G A P
PPG PPA PPP PPP%
TM G TM A TM P
% TM G
% TM P
2005 Sidney Crosby 81 39 63 102
16 31 47 46.1%
243 433 676
16.0%
15.0%
2007 Patrick Kane 82 21 51 72
7 21 28 38.9%
234 395 629
9.0%
11.4%
2008 Steven Stamkos 79 23 23 46
9 8 17 37.0%
207 367 574
11.1%
8.0%
2009 John Tavares 82 24 30 54
11 14 25 46.3%
214 367 581
11.2%
9.3%
2010 Taylor Hall (proj)
81 23 35 57
9 14 23 40.7%
218 376 594
10.6%
9.6%



















2010 Taylor Hall
81 27 18
45
3
6
9
20.0%
218 370 588
12.3%
7.6%

 

Hall's actual assist rates are a bit off of the average, but his goal scoring rate is a bit higher.  His power play numbers are very poor, likely the product of playing on an abysmal power play.  To give you an idea of his even strength production so far and how it may project - he's on pace to score more even strength goals (24) than Crosby scored as a rookie (23).  He's tracking for as many even strength goals as John Tavares scored total and he's tracking towards scoring more even strength goals that either Stamkos or Kane totaled as a rookie.  He's also tracking for the least amount (by half) of power play points of any rookie number one choice in recent history.

Note the projected team goals and the current team goals projection for the Oilers.  That's a fun coincidence.

The second table contains all of the top-five forwards drafted since the lockout

Year Player GP G A P
PPG PPA PPP PPP%
TM G TM A TM P
% TM G
% TM P
2005 Sidney Crosby 81 39 63 102
16 31 47 46.1%
243 433 676
16.0%
15.0%
2006 Jordan Staal 81 29 13 42
4 2 6 14.3%
267 468 735
10.9%
5.7%
2006 Phil Kessel 70 11 18 29
1 4 5 17.2%
210 361 571
5.2%
5.1%
2007 Patrick Kane 82 21 51 72
7 21 28 38.9%
234 395 629
9.0%
11.4%
2008 Steven Stamkos 79 23 23 46
9 8 17 37.0%
207 367 574
11.1%
8.0%
2009 John Tavares 82 24 30 54
11 14 25 46.3%
214 367 581
11.2%
9.3%
2009 Matt Duchene 81 24 31 55
10 11 21 38.2%
237 419 656
10.1%
8.4%
2009 Evander Kane 66 14 12 26
0 0 0 0.0%
230 411 641
6.1%
4.1%
2010 Taylor Hall (proj) 79 22 28 50
7 10 17 34.2%
228 396 624
9.4%
9.6%



















2010 Taylor Hall
79 27 18 46

3
6
9
20.0%
218 370
588

12.0%
7.4%
X
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