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Elite Players or Superior Depth?

The Devils and Canucks have more $2M+ players than anyone else in the NHL.

With a salary cap in place, there have been various theories on how best to spend money.  Are teams better off spending on a few elite players, or are they better off gathering more high-to-mid-tier players and beating teams with superior depth?  The Chicago Blackhawks had the best of both worlds last season, but once they actually had to make a decision, the depth was booted out the door and the stars all stayed.  Was it the right call? I think it's an open question, and in attempt to provide the beginning of an answer, I'll look at what the various teams seem to believe based on where they're spending money for the 2010-11 season.

Star-divide

The chart below tracks the pay range teams are using to spend their money.  Any slots highlighted in blue mean that the team has a below-average number of players in that pay range.  Any slots highlighted in red mean the the team has an above-average number of players in that pay range.  One final note: any players that teams have managed to send away to Europe or the AHL (like everyone's favourite Oiler, Sheldon Souray) are still included in the chart, and all of these cap numbers include bonuses (many thanks to NHLnumbers for the salary information):

Spending_medium

Some brief observations:

  • The ten teams with the most left-over cap space are the Thrashers, Avalanche, Islanders, Blues, Oilers, Lightning, Hurricanes, Predators, Panthers, and Coyotes.  Almost all of these teams are underspending in at least one of the two most expensive categories.  Some of that is a function of opportunity (you can only pay an elite player if you've got one), but some of it is no doubt because these teams feel that it's more difficult to get surplus performance from players at or near the top of the market.  On the other hand, no one who spends to the cap uses this strategy voluntarily.  I'm now more interested than ever to see what David Poile does with Shea Weber.
  • The exceptions to the rule above are the Lightning and Hurricanes who have both continued to spend on the very best players despite lower overall payrolls.  Both clubs have been able to achieve this by spending less on the players earning between $2.00M and $4.99M and relying on smart low-cost buys to make up for the shortfall.
  • The Oilers are in an interesting spot with six players in the 3.50M to $4.99M range, and all six locked up for next season as well.  Several of the top-spending teams are currently avoiding that market in order to pay superstars.  The Red Wings, Capitals, Canadiens, Sharks and Rangers have all stayed away, while the Bruins and Senators are the only big spenders filling the gap.  I wonder if this is a market that many of the rich clubs find overvalued.
  • The Canucks and Devils were both pegged before the season as Stanley Cup contenders (not many folks saying that about the Devils now!).  Both teams spent more than average on players in the $5.00M to $6.49M pay range, and sit at the top the list for players with a cap hit of at least $2.00M with fourteen.  Looking over the rosters of both squads, it certainly looks like they should have a very strong top nine forward group and a top four defense when everyone is healthy.
  • The Penguins have nine players with a cap hit of at least $3.50M compared to a league average of 6.6.  In order to pay for those luxuries, they've completely abandoned the $2.00M to $3.49M market and actually have fewer players than average with a cap hit of $2.00M or more.
  • The Sharks and Rangers are both spending significant money at the top of the roster, which should make them, like Pittsburgh, particularly vulnerable to injuries.  In San Jose's case, it's not such a big deal, but New York is relying on Marian Gaborik to stay healthy (how's that going?) in order to have success.

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Personally Id would rather do the way of depth. Going with stars not only are you at large risk if theres injury, but you cant have the stars out there all the time so you do need decent players around them.

That being said, i think it also depends on which stars you have. Give me Toews, Datsuk, Kessler and a competant goalie, who gives a rats a— about the 4line?

by VanillaAcid on Nov 3, 2010 1:25 PM MDT reply actions  

I think going with big contracts is okay, as long as they aren’t in goal.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 3, 2010 8:06 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m not sure that there is a formula for success. Teams all have varying level of talent emerge through their systems that require different salaries. But I think you need a star or 2 minimal. Other than that, just have as many 2-way forwards as possible and as many bargain to value contracts as possible and your set…. easy ;)

by puckdonkey on Nov 3, 2010 2:38 PM MDT reply actions  

The Chicago Blackhawks had the best of both worlds last season, but once they actually had to make a decision, the depth was booted out the door and the stars all stayed.

The thing is that had they not signed Brian Campbell to that monster contract, they would have continued to have depth and the stars. They wouldnt have needed to let go of Ladd and versteeg. Also if Dale tallon hadnt screwed with the qualifying offers, they would have been able to sign versteeg for less. Its sad really that they had to break up such a wonderful team.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Nov 3, 2010 5:05 PM MDT reply actions  

Nice piece Scott.

The way I see it you need both. You spend so dollars to get so many wins. Elite players give you the wins, but you run out of money. The depth men can give you value for bucks but at some point you run out of icetime.

Joe Thornton makes $6.7MM above replacement and probably gives the Sharks a quarter of a goal per game above his injury replacement, in the icetime he’s accustomed to. So that’s about $327K per goal over 82 games.

Curtis Glencross is a heck of a player but I try not to overrate him. Let’s say he gives the Flames a goal every 20 games above his injury replacements. His salary of $0.7MM above replacement gives $171K per goal over 82 games. Value!

You can ice a team of 23 Glencross types and it probably wouldn’t be that good. Not enough icetime and just not enough wins. You’d have a ton of $ left over.

You can ice a team of 7 Thornton types and 16 AHLers and it probably wouldn’t that good either. Not enough icetime especially on the PP, and eventually the bottom of your roster has to play. Probably better than the all-Glencross team though.

Those depth players, those wins that come in garbage time, during the no-star EV shifts or the PK that you can buy for half the cost… they are needed.

But the stars that can give you the bulk wins in the star-on-star shifts or the man advantage… they are key. Even if you pay more per victory, you won’t find them elsewhere.

by R O on Nov 3, 2010 9:06 PM MDT via mobile reply actions  

I wonder if contract distribution shouldn’t be a normal bell curve distribution?

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 3, 2010 9:14 PM MDT up reply actions  

i’d be surprised if talent is normally distributed at the NHL level.

by Passive Voice on Nov 4, 2010 4:51 PM MDT up reply actions  

I’m actually working on it. The numbers are very interesting – I should have them up next week.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 5, 2010 10:40 AM MDT up reply actions  

Thanks R O. It’s certainly true that you need some of both, and that all teams do to some extent (no one is playing all of their forwards 15 min. per game), but I’m still struck by the fact that the majority of poor teams skimp out on the big stars instead of skimping on the level below that. Now, a lot of that is plain old circumstance; we know the Thrashers tried to sign Kovalchuk to a monster deal, and they probably would have loved to keep Hossa too, so I’m not sure how much to read into it in some cases, but it is pretty striking. These teams, of course, still have their own “star” players (guys getting the big ice time), and seem to think that they have a better chance at success by asking the $4M men to take on the big guns than they do asking a bunch of schleps to take on the mid-level talents on other rosters.

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 4, 2010 10:45 AM MDT up reply actions  

Wouldn't that imply that...

There is an equal amount of players earning the minimum as the maximum? That’s clearly not the case.

by AndroBE on Nov 4, 2010 9:28 AM MDT reply actions  

Who is this addressed to? As of now there aren’t any players earning the maximum (at least to my knowledge), so you’re right, but I’m not sure where it fits in.

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 4, 2010 10:35 AM MDT up reply actions  

Looks like a reply to Derek’s reply.

Blueshirt Banter - The Season is Over - I read it on Facebook
Twitter: RangerSmurf

by George E. Ays on Nov 4, 2010 1:28 PM MDT up reply actions  

Ah, I see. That makes sense, although I don’t think that kind of rigidity is what Derek had in mind.

by Scott Reynolds on Nov 4, 2010 1:50 PM MDT up reply actions  

It’s important to keep in mind the context of these salaries when comparing the various tiers of player. Not everyone in the highest salary tier deserves to be there in terms of actual ability, and likewise for most of the other ones. I think, if one were to correct for overpays and rookie contracts, the most efficient type of team would probably be something resembling a hybrid of Nashville and Montreal in terms of salary structure.

R O has a point in terms of elite players; some players are worth the apparent decrease in efficiency per goal. At the same time, a team consisting of a great number of players who are merely good would presumably result in greater consistency throughout the season and decreased impact of injuries. And solid defensive players with moderate counting stats tend to be cheaper than the dynamos who put up big numbers.

by SmellOfVictory on Nov 7, 2010 4:13 PM MST reply actions  

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