Edmonton Oilers' Scoring Chances At The Quarter Pole

Two of the top three Oilers by the scoring chances

Counting scoring chances is simply recording observed on-ice events in the same manner official NHL scorers count things like hits, takeaways, giveaways, blocked shots and shots.  Scoring chances, at least those counted by our stable of intrepid internet writers, are more accurate than stats counted by official scorers due mostly to the seven gentlemen counting chances this season who adhere to a single definition of a scoring chance:

A scoring chance is defined as a clear play directed toward the opposing net from a dangerous scoring area - loosely defined as the top of the circle in and inside the faceoff dots (nicknamed the Home Plate), though sometimes slightly more generous than that depending on the amount of immediately-preceding puck movement or screens in front of the net. Blocked shots are generally not included but missed shots are. A player is awarded a scoring chance anytime he is on the ice and someone from either team has a chance to score. He is awarded a "chance for" if someone on his team has a chance to score and a "chance against" if the opposing team has a chance to score.

Dennis King at MC79hockey.com, has been counting scoring chances for the Oilers for two seasons and thanks to by Vic Ferrari of timeonice.com and his tracking tools, compiling the data is simple.  Due to a bug the data does not yet include the November 7th win at Chicago, the November 9th loss at Carolina, the November 19th loss versus Phoenix and the November 21st win at Anaheim.

One of the truly interesting aspects of tracking scoring chances for the same team over the course of a season is how quickly the primary generators become apparent after a short time. Just like last season, Dustin Penner is primary driver, and the only other forward in the black is Sam Gagner.

Overall, the the forward group has a chance differential of -1.396 per fifteen minutes of even strength ice time, significantly worse than last season's -.886 per fifteen.

*click on column header to sort

FORWARD TSC TSCA CF/15 CA/15 SCDIFF DIFF/15
D. PENNER  57 49 4.206 3.616 8 0.590
S. GAGNER  62 59 4.222 4.018 3 0.204
A. HEMSKY  59 61 4.395 4.544 -2 -0.149
T. HALL 68 80 4.286 5.042 -12 -0.756
S. HORCOFF  54 69 4.110 5.251 -15 -1.142
J. EBERLE 64 82 4.280 5.483 -18 -1.204
Fwd Average 527 736 3.521 4.918 -209 -1.396
Z. STORTINI  17 26 3.657 5.593 -9 -1.936
G. BRULE  30 60 2.321 4.641 -30 -2.321
S. MACINTYRE 2 5 1.568 3.921 -3 -2.353
J.F. JACQUES 2 7 0.994 3.479 -5 -2.485
A. COGLIANO  39 73 2.958 5.536 -34 -2.579
C. FRASER 19 42 2.420 5.350 -23 -2.930
R. JONES 22 48 2.600 5.672 -26 -3.072
M. PAAJARVI 32 75 2.339 5.483 -43 -3.144

 

Like the forwards, the defense is down approximately one-half of one chance more per fifteen minutes compared to last season.  No regular defenseman is in the black this season.

*click on column header to sort

DEFENSEMAN TSC TSCA CF/15 CA/15 SCDIFF DIFF/15
S. BELLE 5 5 2.595 2.595 0 0.000
L. SMID  52 64 3.669 4.516 -12 -0.847
T. GILBERT  70 86 3.890 4.779 -16 -0.889
Def Average 350 494 3.517 4.964 -144 -1.447
R. WHITNEY 63 91 3.427 4.951 -28 -1.523
J. VANDERMEER 41 58 3.904 5.522 -17 -1.619
T. PECKHAM 50 75 3.298 4.948 -25 -1.649
J. STRUDWICK 24 38 3.041 4.816 -14 -1.774
K. FOSTER 45 77 3.338 5.712 -32 -2.374

 

Should the chances differential continue through the rest of the season, expect the Oilers' even strength goal differential to be approximately fifteen to twenty goals worse than the -56 posted 2009-2010.

One player of interest, Theo Peckham, has been the subject of some discussion due to his noticeable physical play.  Below is a WOWY comparison for the defensive corps with Theo Peckham on the ice.

 

# With Peckham %
Peckham Without %
2 23 35 0.397
27 40 0.403
5 1 0 1.000
49 75 0.395
6 3 17 0.150
47 58 0.448
26 7 12 0.368
43 63 0.406
43 2 2 0.500
48 73 0.397
45 18 12 0.600
32 63 0.337
49 - - -
- - -
77 14 10 0.583
36 65 0.356

 

By request, here is the WOWY for Magnus Paajarvi:

#
With Paajarvi %
Paajarvi Without %
4 0 1 0.000
32 74 0.302
10 10 13 0.435
22 62 0.262
13 8 24 0.250
24 51 0.320
14 12 19 0.387
20 56 0.263
27 0 5 0.000
32 70 0.314
67 8 24 0.250
24 51 0.320
83 7 14 0.333
25 61 0.291
89 10 24 0.294
22 51 0.301
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