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We Miss You Kevin Lowe

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This was originally scheduled to be an article about the penalty kill.  I was going to do some additional analysis, show a really funny screen cap of the Vancouver game where Theo Peckham was charging at the point defenseman and two seconds later Vancouver scored.  But I'm getting tired of harping on the Oilers' penalty kill.  It's the worst-coached special team that I can remember, though I don't remember the 1970's Capitals penalty kill, so there's a chance they are the worst-coached team in history and I don't want to write about them for awhile.  So I guess it's back to talking about management and mismanagement.

A little less than a year ago, I wrote an article in which I predicted that Craig MacTavish will someday be a General Manager in the NHL.  Part of that article featured a poll asking for our readers' preference between MacTavish, Kevin Lowe and Steve Tambellini.  MacTavish ran away with the poll, garnering 53% of the vote.

Star-divide

Eleven months later and my conclusion hasn't changed:


He's a guy with a proven record as a player, a proven record of player development, a proven record of roster management, an understanding of roster building, and a record of intelligence.  Teams like Atlanta, Florida, Ottawa, and Edmonton should be at least willing to listen to what MacTavish has to say, let alone hire the guy to fix their significant messes.

It hasn't changed except that Atlanta and Florida have looked elsewhere to fix their mess.  Ottawa is staying the course and isn't nearly as messy this season, and Edmonton, well, Edmonton is enough of a mess for all of them. 

And while I still believe MacTavish to be a superior choice for a GM job, the current state of the Oilers is enough for me to long for the fantastically uneven voyage that marked Kevin Lowe's post-lockout reign in Edmonton.  Yes, Lowe had his warts, but he was also able to piece together talented players now and again and in the end, his biggest fault was over-valuing players in free agency and over-valuing his own players headed towards free agency.  Though he was widely criticized for both the Chris Pronger trade and the Ryan Smyth negotiations and trade, imagine if the current General Manager had to pull those off.  Now stop sobbing.

Discount the draft (because it's evident to everyone that knows anything about the Oilers that Stu MacGregor is solely responsible for the draft) and Steve Tambellini's body of work in Edmonton is lacking.  We've gone through his moves time and time again - trading a second round pick for a couple of weeks of Ales Kotalik, turning Erik Cole into Jim Vandermeer, the Khabibulin deal.  None of it is very good.

The one move that was supposed to be of great imagination, and has been repeatedly used as a defense of Tambellini's skill as a General Manager is his trade of Patrick O'Sullivan for Jim Vandermeer.  O'Sullivan was then bought out by the Coyotes.  I keep reading this as a defense of Tambellini, but it’s just not true. It might be imaginative, but it’s not efficient.

O’Sullivan’s buyout counts for $935,417 against the cap this year and $397,917 against the cap in 2011-2012  Vandermeer's deal is a $2,300,000 cap hit this year. A guy like Mike Mottau signed with the Islanders for $800,000 over the next two seasons. Tambellini could’ve offered him $1.2 million for this season, had a better player and had the same cap and cash impact.  Other guys that would've worked in a similar fashion and their cap hits:

 

Milan Jurcina $1,000,000
Paul Mara $750,000
Andreas Lilja $713,710
Nick Boynton $500,000
Mike Weaver $900,000
Randy Jones $1,000,000

 

He could’ve offered any of them $1,200,000 and had the same financial impact and a better player. So the Vandermeer thing wasn’t really creative, it was just…a move for a move’s sake and actually made the team worse.

Let's not forget he brought Jason Strudwick back for another year, with a $25,000 raise, no less.  Not to beat a dead horse or anything, but Strudwick is probably the worst regular player since the 1967 expansion.  I don't care if the player is some combination of Charles XII and Plato in the locker room, the on-ice impact of Strudwick's play is damaging to the development of a young team. 

His roster management this season has been nothing short of awful.  He botched Pat Quinn's firing cum promotion so badly that even the most ardent management fans were sympathetic to Quinn.  He botched the handling of the Sheldon Souray situation so badly over the last 18 months that I expected someone to pop up and say "Tamby, you're doing a heckuva job."   He didn't know the signing deadline for Teemu Hartikainen.  He bought out Robert Nilsson for no apparent reason. He spent two years assessing a team and still didn't realize that they needed a center that could win faceoffs and kill penalties.

The opening day roster was penciled in since July.   Tambellini refused to make a decision on the goaltending situation to open the season and carried three goalies, handcuffing Tom Renney as he tried to manage the lineup.  Only after J.F. Jacques, yes, that J.F. Jacques returned from injury was Tambellini forced to make a decision.  Combine that with the Strudwick signing and the MacIntyre signing and Tom Renney's three healthy scratches were Jeff Deslauriers, Jason Strudwick and Steve MacIntyre.  Let that soak in for a minute.  Has there been a worse bench in NHL history?  It's rhetorical, by the way, no need to search for the answer.  He's assembled a coaching staff that won't manage the bench and coach and has introduced possibly the worst penalty kill tactics in NHL history

Kevin Lowe may not have been the smoothest operator in the NHL, but he wasn't overwhelmed by his position.  Except for the Pronger situation, he was decent in the trade markets.  He uncovered defensemen on a regular basis. Yes, he struggled in the free agency market, but simply hiring a negotiator or a keen Assistant General Manager probably would have plugged that leak.  He also had a tendency to over-correct when fixing a problem, but at least he realized that a problem existed and addressed the problem.  Until this entire mess can be properly addressed, here's hoping Kevin Lowe pulls a Lou Lamoriello and places himself at the helm once again.

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Poll
Which man would you prefer as general manager of the Edmonton Oilers?
Kevin Lowe
205 votes
Steve Tambellini
203 votes

408 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 38 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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In all fairness,

I should be able to select option 3 (neither) in that poll.

by Kish on Nov 10, 2010 11:36 AM MST reply actions  

Like I said in the article, MacTavish ran away with the last vote, so there was no use in a ‘C’.

I wouldn’t mind it if Lowe took the team over until the end of the season, then brought in a GM in April.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 10, 2010 11:37 AM MST up reply actions  

Well I think we all know who that should really be…

It's a catastrophic success. (Read: GO OILERS GO)

by Joe Girth on Nov 10, 2010 1:03 PM MST up reply actions  

That’s what she said.

Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 10, 2010 1:41 PM MST up reply actions  

Evaluation

I agree with your take on this. When he was hired, he spent a year watching from the sidelines and evaluating this team. His conclusion? We were a veteran goalie away from being a contender. Now, no one expected us to lose Khabi, Souray and Hemsky long-term but this team is clearly many, many pieces away from contending.

Right there I have to question his entire ability to evaluate a hockey team.

He spent how many years in the Canucks organization and they won zippo. Why do we want to tap that experience?

The one trade I will trot out as a win was Whitney for Visnovsky but it is not like Anaheim didn’t make out well there too and even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile right?

I hope the Oil make a move and don’t allow Tambellini to wreck the good thing MacGregor and co have going for us.

by ahbrown on Nov 10, 2010 11:54 AM MST reply actions  

The one trade I will trot out as a win was Whitney for Visnovsky but it is not like Anaheim didn’t make out well there too and even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile right?

The Staios trade was a huge win as well, but Sutter was getting fleeced pretty regularly last season, and much as I hate to say it, I think I’d rather have Staios than Vandermeer, if it’s only for one awful season.

by despisethesun on Nov 10, 2010 12:17 PM MST up reply actions  

Vandermeer, appallingly, is still probably better than Suicide Steve Staios. Even if he isn’t, I’d definitely rather have Vandermeer and a third-round pick than Steve Staios.

Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 10, 2010 1:43 PM MST up reply actions  

(Now, would I rather have Jim Vandermeer and a third-round pick than Steve Staios and Patrick O’Sullivan? I dunno. Particularly if I could combine Steve and O’Sullivan into Steve Sullivan.)

Manager at Vancouver Whitecaps and western Canadian soccer website Eighty Six Forever and infrequently-posting flunky at Edmonton Oilers blog The Copper & Blue.

by Benjamin Massey on Nov 10, 2010 1:44 PM MST up reply actions  

This is exactly the kind of mad science I can get behind. Unfortunately, I don’t think Tambi could combine a pen cap with a pen so things are possibly for the best.

I do suspect this logic was at play when the Flames traded for Keith Seabrook, though that might work out ok for them.

by despisethesun on Nov 10, 2010 3:29 PM MST up reply actions  

Or diptheria perhaps

That poll needs a third option:

c] just go lay your head on the tracks

by Mr DeBakey on Nov 10, 2010 1:52 PM MST reply actions  

Imaginative

a defense of Tambellini’s skill as a General Manager is his trade of Patrick O’Sullivan for Jim Vandermeer

The trade was Phoenix’ idea, right?
And Tambellini imagined how nice it would be to have more grit.
Then said yes.

by Mr DeBakey on Nov 10, 2010 2:08 PM MST reply actions  

Even the Chris Pronger trade is pretty defensible. One of the picks he got for Chris Pronger turned into Jordan Eberle. Would any of you trade Jordan Eberle at this point for Chris Pronger straight up, or even for the past three years of Chris Pronger, considering that this team wouldn’t go anywhere even with him in the line-up, except maybe squeak into the playoffs one of those years and get an even lower draft pick?

Two first round draft picks, a second, a 20+ goal scorer and a young physical defenceman who will likely be able to play in your second pairing for the next decade is hardly something to sneeze at, especially in a deal you had no choice to make.

If anything, the problem was that the other moves that they made around that trade weren’t as smart.

Of the Kevin Lowe moves that have been made, that’s probably one of the ones I wouldn’t take back, actually.

by David Supina on Nov 10, 2010 2:32 PM MST reply actions  

I agree that trade turned out pretty well given the weak bargaining position Lowe was dealt.

Pronger for Eberle, Smid, Marincin (who is lighting up the WHL *via the Nash trade), and the 2nd and 3rd rounders that we needed to snag Penner.

by Oi on Nov 10, 2010 4:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Ever seem that South Park ep where the kids are voting between a douche and a turd sandwich for the school mascot?

That sums up this poll.

by RiversQ on Nov 10, 2010 2:43 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

David – the Oilers would have been pretty darn good in 06/07 with Pronger still around.

That trade will never be defensible. Especially when the best asset was an uncontrollable unpredictable draft pick out of an uncontrollable unpredictable SCF outcome.

by RiversQ on Nov 10, 2010 2:46 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

And assuming that that team would have undergone the same number of injuries, there’s no way 06/07 would have been a good squad. They would have had Pronger + a bunch of pylons on the blue-line.

How are players that can be injured suddenly, take a quick downturn in performance or even unexpectedly demand a trade less unpredictable than draft picks?

The difference is draft picks are simply more important these days than they were a decade ago; you NEED draft picks to get anywhere, and they got an extremely importance piece in Eberle.

Not only is it defensible, but I don’t think a smart GM would, in retrospect, not trade Pronger for Eberle+ in retrospect.

by David Supina on Nov 10, 2010 4:23 PM MST up reply actions  

How are players that can be injured suddenly, take a quick downturn in performance or even unexpectedly demand a trade less unpredictable than draft picks?

Because players at Eberle’s draft position don’t turn out to be great players that often, especially not players of Pronger’s calibre, and especially not Oilers draft picks. Chris Pronger has been a key player on 3 of the last 5 Stanley Cup finalists, one of whom won the Cup. How many 22nd overall picks can say that? How many Oilers first round picks can say that? I think in retrospect, the trade worked out pretty well, but given the Oilers’ draft record over the past decade (and acknowledging that Eberle was drafted after Prendergrast was promoted out of the head scout position), it’s just as likely that they could have wound up with another Marc-Antoine Pouliot (also 22nd overall) or Riley Nash (21st overall), Rob Schrempt (25th overall), Jesse Niinimaki (15th overall) or Andrew Cogliano (25th overall, who’s a decent player but not a guy I would trade Chris Pronger for.) And while all Eberle’s arrows are headed in the right direction, and I think he would have gone in the top 10 if he were re-drafted today, there’s still no guarantee he won’t flame out spectacularly before he becomes a useful player, or plateau well under our current expectations. Meanwhile, Chris Pronger is 36 years old and still likely better than any current Oilers defenceman. So I think a smart GM would trade Eberle+ for Pronger if they’re in a position to take advantage of what he’ll add to a team. It really boils down to when you’ll need that help, and Anaheim absolutely won that deal given what he contributed to that team. And if I’m the Oilers’ GM in 06-07, I would love to keep Pronger (and a few of the others who left around the same time) around and give the whole thing another shot. It’s also worth noting that Edmonton’s 12th overall pick in 2008 wound up with Buffalo thanks to the Penner offer sheet, who picked Tyler Myers with it. You might recognise the name, as he was the Calder trophy winner last year. Would I rather have Myers than Eberle, given that the Penner offer sheet probably wouldn’t have been made if Pronger stays? That’s a tough question and I want to say “Eberle, without a doubt” but it’s still a little early for that.

That being said, Kevin Lowe was put in a bad position with that trade demand and I think he got a pretty good return out of it. Making him sit would have been a waste of an “asset” (see: Sheldon Souray) and the fact that they basically had to trade him took some of the negotiating leverage away. So what I’m getting at is, if I were in K-Lowe’s shoes, if I weren’t forced to trade CFP, I’d keep him around even if I knew* Eberle was waiting at 22 overall two years later, because it’s not very often that a Stanley Cup finalist team will miss the playoffs for the next four years (going on five) and I need to focus on what will get me back there now. But since that didn’t happen, this has been a fairly good outcome all things considered. It could have been much, much worse.

*Of course, if I knew that, I’d probably also know the team was going to suck hard and make the trade, as well as not go after Penner. Penner’s contract was good and he’s a good player, but the Oilers have basically wasted that contract. But that’s hindsight again.

by despisethesun on Nov 10, 2010 6:33 PM MST up reply actions  

Anaheim's 1st rounder (Eberle) was conditional

The 22nd OV in 2008 was a conditional part of the Pronger deal.

The Ducks had to get to the SCF (didn’t have to win it) for the Oilers to get the pick.

It was actually over 3 year period that the conditional was in play, then Anaheim had a choice of the next 2 years after making the SCF to give up the 1st rounder.

As it turns out they won it, and gave up the 1st the next year.

If Anaheim doesn’t get to the SCF in the spring of 2008, Eberle is not an Oiler.

by Woodguy on Nov 10, 2010 9:02 PM MST up reply actions  

This is funny

In making sure I had the details right about the Pronger deal, I found this article.

I love this quote from Pendergrast:

“It (2008) is one of those draft crops that come along only every five or 10 years. We’d like them to win (West) this year, for sure,” said Oilers head of scouting Kevin Prendergast.

Its one of those draft years that only comes along 5-10 years, and the Oilers had 1 pick (Eberle) in the first 4 rounds.

Lordy.

by Woodguy on Nov 10, 2010 9:10 PM MST up reply actions  

Motin was 4th round 103 OV

Slight mistake in above post. (edit button dammit!)

The Oilers 2nd pick after 22 OV was 103 OV and picked up Motin.

by Woodguy on Nov 10, 2010 9:19 PM MST up reply actions  

The biggest difference between the two is that Kevin Lowe had balls to make the trades he thought he needed to and ST doesnt.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Nov 10, 2010 3:17 PM MST reply actions  

I did always admire Kevin Lowe’s relentless approach to getting things done. Someday, I want to take a look at all the moves he made post-lockout and do an overall evaluation.

by David Supina on Nov 10, 2010 4:26 PM MST up reply actions  

I’m kinda ignorant to some fine details here, but isn’t Lowe involved in hockey ops and is a superior in the chain of command to Tamb?

by Corey Pronman on Nov 10, 2010 3:57 PM MST reply actions  

He is exactly as superior to ST now as Quinn is to Renney

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Nov 10, 2010 4:13 PM MST up reply actions  

I think you and I both know that’s untrue. While Lowe may or may not be Tambo’s superior, he is certainly still involved in hockey operations. Quinn, on the other hand, I have not seen hide nor hair of for months, save that Canucks anniversary thing.

by Adam Dyck on Nov 10, 2010 7:14 PM MST via mobile up reply actions  

not all bad

He did start off pretty bad but his trades recently have not been so bad. I do feel bad for Pat Quin but i never like his coaching style.

Successes for ST
Grebeshkov for a 2nd rounder (Curtis Hamilton)
underperforming non-physical Dman who no longer plays in the league for a good looking power forward prospect.

Staios for Aaron Johnson and 3rd round pick 2011
Dump 2.7m in salary for this season got a good replacement Dman (wish we had resigned but maybe wanted to much) and a pick. so we basically dumped cap and got a draft pick!

Vishnovsky for Whitney and a 6th round (Brandon Davidson)
Both teams won on this deal. Whitney provides us with more of what we need than what Vishnovksy could plus we got a throw in prospect to add to the pool.

Loss
POS for Vandemeer
Sure Vandemeer provides grit but at 2.3m?!? yes it would have been easier to offer a better FA defenceman better money than could get elsewhere. but his contract will be off the books next season anyway.

P.S Steve Mac is fine on our Bench because we are going to need a goon to protect our young from time to time. I also do not mind Strudwick at this stage as i would much rather have our future players actually playing in the AHL rather than sitting out in the NHL.

by NZoilerfan on Nov 10, 2010 5:36 PM MST reply actions  

Grebeshkov for a 2nd rounder (Curtis Hamilton)

And didn’t replace him.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 10, 2010 5:47 PM MST up reply actions  

When asked this summer when the Oilers would make the playoffs he said 3 to 5 years. The plan actually is to suck this bad therefore he’s doing a good job right? ;-)

by DuLock on Nov 10, 2010 6:22 PM MST via mobile reply actions  

Huh?

It’s the worst-coached special team that I can remember, though I don’t remember the 1970’s Capitals penalty kill.

Really? You have evidence for this? I have not seen any of your articles from the Oiler’s practices—-am I missing them?

Perhaps if you could tell us how they’re being coached and the system in place and a comparison to other similar and contrasting systems, I might buy that you can make this statement.

All we can say for now is that the PK is performing poorly. Anything more, without direct evidence, is merely Zona’s assumption.

by .spOILer. on Nov 10, 2010 7:09 PM MST reply actions  

I already did a video review of this and compared it to a well-coached unit.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 10, 2010 7:24 PM MST up reply actions  

There's no coaching in there, it's all game time

You’re still making assumptions/using fallacious logic. Show me where the Oil were COACHED to play a scalene triangle.

by .spOILer. on Nov 11, 2010 12:02 PM MST up reply actions  

Well mate if it happens game after game and PK after PK its got to be coaching.

Sins can be forgiven but conscience is a killer.

by SumOil on Nov 11, 2010 2:43 PM MST up reply actions  

Each defenseman is doing the same thing. This isn’t one guy running off of the rails. This is systemic. A systemic issue points directly at the coaching.

Those same defensemen weren’t doing this under MacTavish and Quinn.

Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.

by Derek Zona on Nov 11, 2010 3:19 PM MST up reply actions  

It wouldn’t surprise me if T-bone was a sock puppet and Komb-over was still making the substantive decisions.

by Kent Wilson on Nov 10, 2010 8:22 PM MST reply actions  

Thomas Vanek and the draft choices

Kevin Lowe signed Vanek to a 7 year / $50 million dollar offer sheet.

Unbelievable!

Cap hit: 7.14 mill

which would be bad enough on its own but the worst part is that if Buffalo didn’t choose to match the Oilers would have to have given up how many 1st round choices?

4

4 first round choices!

You want that guy ruining, i mean running your team?

That’s the 2008 draft, 2009, 2010, and next years draft. We’d still be paying first round draft choices.

For Thomas Vanek!

This is absolutely indefensible.

by dunciano on Nov 11, 2010 4:08 AM MST reply actions  

This along with the Nylander offer should never be forgotten when discussing Lowe’s moves. There is no doubt that he pulled these moves and got lucky they weren’t finalized.

by till_horcoff_is_coach on Nov 11, 2010 8:28 AM MST up reply actions  

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